Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

trellheim · 22-07-2019 02:43PM

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 02:49PM

trellheim wrote: »

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

That is indeed correct, the WA is not law because the UK Parliament have not ratified it. But that does not mean it can be replaced. It took two and a half years to negotiate and was signed by the UK government and the 27 states. The UK parliament refusing to ratify it and saying it wants a different agreement is purely an internal British matter (as Coveney pointed out yesterday).

Stop moaning ffs · 22-07-2019 02:53PM

trellheim wrote: »

ok a few people picking me up here -> the WA isnt in force because they havent/wont ratify it.... International agreements need ratification, in this case the WA needs to be voted through by Parliament before it has any obligation under the WA.

And they can’t conjure up a new one even by October it would be impossible.
And even then the EU27 haven’t seen or agreed to this new fantasy document.
So the WA as negotiated by the Eu and uk is still there and going nowhere.

VinLieger · 22-07-2019 02:54PM

Strazdas wrote: »

That is indeed correct, the WA is not law because the UK Parliament have not ratified it. But that does not mean it can be replaced. It took two and a half years to negotiate and was signed by the UK government and the 27 states. The UK parliament refusing to ratify it and saying it wants a different agreement is purely an internal British matter (as Coveney pointed out yesterday).

Indeed once again the problems stem from how the UK have chosen to do things, in this case the government signing the agreement prior to it being ratified by parliament. It is not up to the EU to fix this problem.

Popeleo · 22-07-2019 02:58PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Also and I'm not sure if or how this might effect things but a Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has been charged with a crime - serious one at that.

Another Brexiteer bathed in glory... the Conservative MP for Dover, of all places, has been charged by the CPS with 3 counts of sexual assault against 2 women between 2007 and 2016.

He was suspended from the party in November 2017 after "serious allegations" against him but readmitted in December 2018 when May needed votes against a no confidence motion.

However, he's not due in court until September 6th, so if he was found guilty, any Westminster Brexit arithmetic probably wouldn't be affected unless there is another extension or two.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-49072464

Strazdas · 22-07-2019 03:06PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed once again the problems stem from how the UK have chosen to do things, in this case the government signing the agreement prior to it being ratified by parliament. It is not up to the EU to fix this problem.

Yes, if Ireland and the UK were negotiating a treaty for two and a half years, signed it and then the Commons refused to ratify it, the solution would not be to negotiate a new agreement. It would be ratify it or else the treaty is dead.

Tell me how · 22-07-2019 03:26PM

trellheim wrote: »

true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

Pretty sure poster was talking about GFA.

An Claidheamh · 22-07-2019 03:27PM

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

So the border is Ireland's problem, not the UK's.

Wow, what a lazy joke of a country Britain chooses to be.

Anyway, violence in the UK against HM finest subjects will be the UK's problem, not Ireland’s.

LeinsterDub · 22-07-2019 03:37PM

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1153305713772552194

Attempt to have Boris out before he's in! How can he go to the palace when it appears he can't command confidence in the HoC?

trellheim · 22-07-2019 03:37PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Pretty sure poster was talking about GFA.

If so then my fault for picking OP up wrong , I assumed it was about the WA. Apologies.

Now : I would love to be a fly on the wall when TM resigns to Liz

An Claidheamh · 22-07-2019 03:39PM

SNIP. Serious discussion only please.

LeinsterDub · 22-07-2019 04:35PM

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-rebels-threaten-to-join-lib-dems-to-thwart-boris-johnson-h6nzxdsdt

Even more talk. This week could get very interesting

As many as six Conservative MPs are due to hold talks with the Liberal Democrats this week with the aim of derailing Brexit and Boris Johnson’s premiership.

Water John · 22-07-2019 04:41PM

So what does TM say to the Queen? Remember there waiting in the wings to legally challenge if May recommends Johnson to the Queen.
Alan Duncan has been a Minister for a long time, he hasn't done this lightly. Then I presume he is very well acquainted with Johnson in the Foreign Office.

MadYaker · 22-07-2019 04:48PM

Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in general should be ashamed of themselves allowing this farce to continue for so long and doing pretty much nothing to hold the gov to task. No british politician is going to come out of this looking good. The next general election should be very interesting

Calina · 22-07-2019 04:51PM

I believe John Bercow has blocked the vote of confidence. So that drama delayed.

Water John · 22-07-2019 04:55PM

IWT such a vote could only be held after Johnson becomes PM. He could immediately face a vote of no confidence, from the Remainers or more those that see the great folly of Crash Out Brexit, if he doesn't deal with their concerns in his opening speech to Parliament.

Enzokk · 22-07-2019 05:15PM

Jo Swinson will be the new leader of the Liberal Democrats.

https://twitter.com/VictoriaPeckham/status/1153327872272142336?s=20

As the tweet states, only Labour has not had a female leader yet.

Itssoeasy · 22-07-2019 05:16PM

Can someone clear something up for me. I've heard two different times but is it 9pm tonight or 9am tomorrow the results of the leadership contest will be announced ?

Water John · 22-07-2019 05:18PM

Sure it's tomorrow. Postal vote closed at 5pm this evening. How long to count to tally and count 160,000 votes?

Loafing Oaf · 22-07-2019 05:21PM

Water John wrote: »

I presume he is very well acquainted with Johnson in the Foreign Office.

Well he does like the company of other men if that's what you're getting at...

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Can someone clear something up for me. I've heard two different times but is it 9pm tonight or 9am tomorrow the results of the leadership contest will be announced ?

"Late in the morning" according to RTE
https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2019/0722/1064504-tory-party-week/

Nody · 22-07-2019 05:25PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in general should be ashamed of themselves allowing this farce to continue for so long and doing pretty much nothing to hold the gov to task. No british politician is going to come out of this looking good. The next general election should be very interesting

I'd argue depressing simply because Corbyn's mishandling of Brexit which will end up in yet another minority government in thrall of Brexiteers most likely. If Corbyn could look beyond his own world view for a second he should be the next PM by a wide margin; as it stands chances are it will end up with Tory + Brexit party + DUP or similar set up instead.

MrMusician18 · 22-07-2019 05:38PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, not quite.

TM has to recommend a person to become PM who can control a majority in the HoC. Could she, in all conscience, say Johnson would command a majority with ministers resigning ahead of her own resignation?

Even if she does name Johnson as her successor, how long before further resignations or events reduce his current majority of 3/5ths of 5/8ths of FA to no majority at all? Then there will be a vote of No Confidence as night follows day.

Her alternative, which I am sure she will not follow, will be to call on someone like Dominic Grieve to try to form a Government of National Unity, with Tory, Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems plus any others to take the UK out of its current trajectory to crash out, followed by economic doom.

Johnson will get the gig, lie, lie, and tell a few untruths, and fail horribly.

Forecast: GE in in October, extension granted by the EU. New Gov revokes Art 50 and vows to never speak about Brexit again, but draws up plans to strengthen the UK position within the EU by joining the Euro, and strengthen the EU military capabilities by providing two aircraft carriers that the UK has no planes that can land on them.

We will see.

I wouldn't put too much money on that, some form of European exit had to take place now, unless there's a second vote. I think the only way out is some form of associate membership that sees the UK outside the political structures but inside the market structures of the EU.

It's the least harmful delivery of the referendum and you could probably engineer a decent grudging majority in the country and parliament for it.

Unfortunately for the UK such a scenario would see it's global influence very much diminished.

Joe_ Public · 22-07-2019 05:45PM

The moves against Johnson, while welcome, feel a bit premature to my mind. I suspect they might be better off at least letting Johnson get his foot in the door, then verifying where exactly he intends to go and then go in hard on him if and when necessary. This way, they're making it look as if it's more personal than about brexit which it probably is in many ways. Will be interesting but just not sure this is the correct strategy.

As for Corbyn, i would blame him for many things, not least the lack of heart he put into the referendum campaigning in 2015, but laying any significant blame for any of this on his door is a bit unfair imo. This is almost exclusively a conservative production. Cameron 50%, May 40% and 10% for those hard right macho men egging them on.

Joe_ Public · 22-07-2019 05:51PM

Water John wrote: »

So what does TM say to the Queen? Remember there waiting in the wings to legally challenge if May recommends Johnson to the Queen.
Alan Duncan has been a Minister for a long time, he hasn't done this lightly. Then I presume he is very well acquainted with Johnson in the Foreign Office.

Apparently went by the self-styled nickname "the pooper scooper" when they were both in the FO, as in scooping up the mess left behind by Johnson was basically his task while in the job.

Leroy42 · 22-07-2019 05:52PM

When people say TM must tell the queen of her successor and they have confidence, what would happen if she didn't?

Can't she simply tell her she thinks he has the confidence of HoC? I mean it is little more than a ceremonial event isn't it?

Inquitus · 22-07-2019 06:01PM

What time do we get the new tomorrow?

Water John · 22-07-2019 06:04PM

Leroy, no it isn't ceremonial. May has to believe he can have the support of the HOC, that is the basis on which she recommends his name to the Queen.

Leroy42 · 22-07-2019 06:07PM

Or what? Surely only an actual vote can prove it either way so on what basis can the queen not accept?

trellheim · 22-07-2019 06:10PM

Remember House is in recess 25 july-3 september so only 3 days for a no confidence vote , really only 1.

I dont think anyone would topple it before it got started, although anything can happen I'd say it will be when it returns on 3 september.

Joe_ Public · 22-07-2019 06:14PM

I imagine the so-called "Gawkward" squad of MPs, however many there are, would have to approach May in some way and inform her they will not support Johnson to be PM, thus making it impossible for her to recommend him to HM. No idea really what happens in that situation, presumably May then stays on as PM until at least parliament reconvenes.

With my conspiracy hat on, i wonder if there's something machievellian May could do with such information, as in a bribe of some sort as it were. Given she approached the queen in 2017 on the basis she'd already signed an arrangement with the DUP (when in fact she hadn't), it's not as if she'd be above that kind of shenanigans. But that, to be fair, is deep conspiracy theory territory!

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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