Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

VinLieger

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Ian Duncan Smith yesterday saying ‘the EU is a master at hard nose negotiations’.
James O Brien made the point that’s a damn good reason not to leave. Never mind have to negotiate against them.

Iain Duncan Smith is a joke, he still wont admit any jobs have been lost due to Brexit

Leroy42

Was listening to Stephen Nolan on BBC5L last night, around 11.30, and he had Chris Mason on along with a supporter of Hunt and Jonhson (MP's).

The Johnson guy kept going on saying that UK and Ireland should simply have bi-lateral talks to deal with the NI border issue and that the EU should stay out of it. Claimed that as a sovereign nation Ireland should not be allowing the EU to take control.

I won't go through the whole thing, he also stated that alternative technology wasn't available right now, but it showed, yet again, that the UK totally fail to understand what it is they are dealing with. They simply cannot understand the reason for the EU, why the EU simply won't give them a trade deal.

If that is the mindset that it is not surprising that they see No Deal a a credible threat as they really do see that each country within the 27 will break off to look after their own interests.

BonnieSituation

trellheim wrote: »

Does anyone have examples of the EU backing down ? Norway ? Switzerland ? anybody ?

Presumably the UK know this.

Therefore I expect huge pressure almost immediately on Leo to cave on something, anything to have something they can trumpet.

Since David Davis has almost publicly said that the negotiating gloves are going to come off - not sure what that means but judge for yourself

Katya Adler would probably have evidence of the EU blinking at the last minute. She'd hardly just make it up.

Leroy42

VinLieger wrote: »

Iain Duncan Smith is a joke, he still wont admit any jobs have been lost due to Brexit

I keep saying this, but it staggers me the amount of air time he is given. He is a failed party leader, a failed minister and nothing he has said has come to pass in regards to Brexit.

When he claims the EU will budge, why don't they ask him why they didn't budge in March, or April and why they have changed nothing at all since last November.

trellheim

What will they do to pressure Varadkar??

As Leo says himself he is the EU.
The EU is him.

UK knows(believes/act of faith) that if Leo gives in then a deal will be done. ( this would cause an almost immediate GE here I'd say)

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

UK knows(believes/act of faith) that if Leo gives in then a deal will be done. ( this would cause an almost immediate GE here I'd say)

Think it’s been explained to you before that negotiations are closed. Leo can’t ‘give in’ on anything. Legally or functionally. It’s the EU with Ireland as part of it that Britain is dealing with.
He can’t go rogue off reservation and give the UK anything. It’s not within his gift.

And why would he?
Cos some clueless politicians in Britain keep squaking in their news papers?

Please

Lackadaisical

IAmTheReign wrote: »

In fairness the St. Patricks Day thing is huge. What other country of only 4 million people gets a guaranteed invitation to the White House to meet with the president every single year?

US politicians may not have a sincere connection to Ireland but that's not really whats important. Their voters do, and politicians want to keep their voters happy. Being tough with Britain and supporting Ireland wins them easy votes.

Speaking as someone who's fairly familiar with Irish-America and Irish American politicians, the other thing to remember is that unlike those of us on Emerald Isle itself, a lot of Irish Americans have a very mythological view of Ireland and a caricature of England (Britain) that is something along the lines of how you might see C. Montgomery Burns (Mr Burns of the Simpsons), with a touch of Cromwell and a mishmash of stories about how badly their ancestors were treated.

The British also tend to forget that the Americans did actually fight a revolution against them and I have found on a few occasions in meetings where some English person has made a stupid comment like referring to the US as "The colonies" or suggesting that they should hand themselves back to HRH and apologise tends to be met with about as much humor as saying the same thing in Dublin might.

The likes of Rees-Mogg, Johnson and quite a few others tend to confirm that stereotype and it will really not play out very well with Irish America and even non-Irish America.

The other side of it is that the US is split down the middle and for every Trump supporter, you've a people who cannot stand this kind of politics and would lump Brexit straight into the same category and right now, it's those people who control the house and have huge media influence.

Add to that that many Democrats (and even some Republicans) would tend to see the GFA as somewhat of a massive success of American foreign policy. The Clintons in particular would have personal involvement in it and there's a huge cohort of very establishment Irish American and allied politicians who would see it similarly.

A lot of the US establishment would also have seen the EU as having been a positive result of US foreign policy in Europe after WWII. It effectively is a product of the Marshall Plan and was built to some degree in the image of a European version of a United States. So, the UK attempting to take a sledge hammer to the EU will go down extremely badly with a lot of the US establishment, regardless of Trump thinks of it, the EU is very much part of the stable "Western" world order and espouses many of the same values and ideals as the US, albeit in a less interventionist and more peacefully idealistic kind of way. It's the US' biggest trade partner and that relationship has been enormously important to both sides of the Atlantic.

Trump's era in office will come to an end, and the UK will be left dealing with centrist American politics again and it isn't necessarily going to respond as enthusiastically as they think.

Even Trump is surrounded by right wing Irish Americans and I would suspect that if push came to shove on a topic that was putting Ireland at risk, many of those would probably fall into an "America First" but pro-Irish position a long time before they would support the Tories.

I just think the Tories could massively overplay their hand with the US on this. There are some parallels between Brexit and US populism, but there are some fairly stark differences too.

I'd also add that Trump smells weakness and will use it as a negotiating position in any trade deal / hotel deal .. (same thing to him.) He's not your friend. He's a salesman and it will very much be America (or Trump) First.

Harry Palmr

Alan Duncan resigns from government. So that's three assuming Gauke and Phil Hammond have followed through.

Also and I'm not sure if or how this might effect things but a Tory MP Charlie Elphicke has been charged with a crime - serious one at that.

trellheim

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Think it’s been explained to you before that negotiations are closed. Leo can’t ‘give in’ on anything. Legally or functionally. It’s the EU with Ireland as part of it that Britain is dealing with.
He can’t go rogue off reservation and give the UK anything. It’s not within his gift.

And why would he?
Cos some clueless politicians in Britain keep squaking in their news papers?

Please

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

reslfj

20silkcut wrote: »

What will they do to pressure Varadkar??

As Leo says himself he is the EU.
The EU is him.

"The EU is him."

No way.

The EU27 is all 27 countries and they decided and continue to decide what is the mandate for Michel Barnier the EU negotiator.

As long as Ireland acts with prudence - as its politicians has masterly done up to now - and position itself in front of the other 26 EU members it can have a great say.

But make no mistake. Ireland is not the EU27. In EU outer border and trade questions - it's the EU and the EU alone that calls the shots.

Lars

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

Are we consuming different media perhaps?
Everything I’ve read both on here and in papers has the Eu and us saying the WA is closed. The backstop is going nowhere. There will be no opening it and no renegotiations.

The only person I’m seeing saying there’ll be a new deal is Johnson.
Who thinks he can do three years of work in three months?

I know who I believe and it’s isn’t Johnson.

Where are you reading there’ll be further negotiations? And where is it said Leo will be forced to change position?

Lackadaisical

UK commentators only see this from a UK perspective, but if you think of it from the EU's point of view, the way the UK is behaving is almost like as if say Russia were to start demanding that the EU throw Finland or Estonia under a bus to ensure free flow of trade between it and the EU.

I find the UK seems to want to be treated as if it were an important on-going member, while throwing all sorts of aggressive shapes at the EU and using rhetoric that is extremely threatening to the EU itself and to one of the founder members of the Eurozone.

If the EU were to throw Ireland under a bus, it would immediately raise huge questions about its willingness to stand behind other smaller and vulnerable members with big neighbours. I mean why would the Nordic countries even bother to be members, if they were all subject to being cast aside should there be a trade deal with Russia?

Why would Greece or Cyprus remain members? Would the EU place Turkey ahead of them because it has 90m+ people?

It would leave the Balkan members nervous about how the EU might deal with both Serbia and Turkey, would it abandon them?

Likewise, all of the eastern countries that were formally under Soviet influence would be left scratching their heads.

Effectively by throwing Ireland under a bus, the EU could be writing its own epitaph and I think it is acutely aware of that, so I don't see it happening.

What I see happening in the next few months is the UK facing a very hard negotiation where the EU will simply not blink and will let the UK bang its head off the wall until it eventually comes around to a compromise.
As it stands, the EU doesn't really have to do anything at all other than sit there and let the UK rant and rave like a toddler throwing a tantrum. Eventually, it will calm down and pragmatism will be restored.

reslfj

trellheim wrote: »

... If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

You are way out.

The EU27 has larger problems with the NI-RoI border, than just the GFA. The protection of the Internal Market/the SM is at the core of the EU27's position - with or without Leo.

The EU27 will not let the backstop vanish just because Leo Varadkar changes his and his governments position (which I don't see happening).

The UK has agreed to the WA. Except for an A50 revoke the WA text will be ratified by the UK as such a ratification is the one and only way to get any deal - trade or non trade - with the EU.

The UK will after a 'No Deal' Brexit be a fairly small and rule taking nation. It better understand and accept this fact as soon as possible.


Lars

trellheim

The EU27 will not let the backstop vanish just because Leo Varadkar changes his and his governments position (which I don't see happening).

I am putting up predictions for what will I believe happen, i.e. massive pressure being applied to Irish Government to find a facesaver.

Neither you nor I know whats going to be put on offer, but we would be stupid not to consider all options.


The UK has shown it wants to do unilateral (e.g going to see Merkel, Macron directly)

Some immediate carrot will be shown by the UK almost immediately and then the pressure will come on e.g ( not ECJ but something like agreeing to pay the bill)

By the way I have never once said we will or should buckle under to such pressure.

If you dont think this will happen do you think they will sit there wibbling in the corner till Oct 31 ? We need to have an answer to every single play they will try.

KildareP

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

The negotiations are closed whilst the UK red lines remain in place as they are.

The EU have always indicated that if the UK were to alter or change it's current red lines then it would be open to reconsider the exit process.

The Irish cannot back down on the backstop - it will cause massive diplomacy issues from both the UK and EU sides and all of the issues it was designed to protect will not suddenly be resolved.

So where is the pressure coming to come from?
The UK?
They've already enough on their plate as it is, and it's growing by the day. The EU market is immediately off limits and the USA and Canada are sending messages that aren't exactly in the UK's favour. Hopes of opening markets further afield are suddenly looking very uncertain with what's going on in Iran.
The EU?
What are they going to pressure Ireland about? To give in to the UK demands on the backstop and risk letting the UK think they can then apply individual pressure on all of the other areas they're unhappy about because eventually they'll get their way and break each and every one with enough pressure?

The only pressure I can see growing against anyone is the UK and it won't be just the EU causing it.
No FTA with EU27 for forseeable under current sets of circumstances.
Canada now refusing to roll-over CETA if UK are just going to throw open their market tariff free.
USA will make a deal entirely on their terms, not the UK's, and many of those terms hinted at are highly unpalatable.

So now having ruled those three big markets out, your nearest market is at least a quarter-way around the globe. That makes it:
- impossible to transit goods that have a very short shelf-life without considerable expense (and very little readily available capacity exists today)
- the huge increases in shipping and airborne freight miles necessary will send the likes of Extinction Rebellion into overdrive
- the pound shows every sign of tanking every time the prospect of No Deal is looking to be a foregone conclusion so the added expense is now a double whammy.

Whereas the EU negotiation team have shown themselves to be a group who are prepared to take the slowly-slowly approach and wait things out - one thing the UK will not have in a No-Deal scenario is time and things will get very tough, very quickly. It's not a game of chicken I'd like to play from the UK side.

trellheim

KildareP wrote: »

The negotiations are closed whilst the UK red lines remain in place as they are.

The EU have always indicated that if the UK were to alter or change it's current red lines then it would be open to reconsider the exit process.

The Irish cannot back down on the backstop - it will cause massive diplomacy issues from both the UK and EU sides and all of the issues it was designed to protect will not suddenly be resolved.

So where is the pressure coming to come from?
The UK?
They've already enough on their plate as it is, and it's growing by the day. The EU market is immediately off limits and the USA and Canada are sending messages that aren't exactly in the UK's favour. Hopes of opening markets further afield are suddenly looking very uncertain with what's going on in Iran.
The EU?
What are they going to pressure Ireland about? To give in to the UK demands on the backstop and risk letting the UK think they can then apply individual pressure on all of the other areas they're unhappy about because eventually they'll get their way and break each and every one with enough pressure?

The only pressure I can see growing against anyone is the UK and it won't be just the EU causing it.
No FTA with EU27 for forseeable under current sets of circumstances.
Canada now refusing to roll-over CETA if UK are just going to throw open their market tariff free.
USA will make a deal entirely on their terms, not the UK's, and many of those terms hinted at are highly unpalatable.

So now having ruled those three big markets out, your nearest market is at least a quarter-way around the globe. That makes it:
- impossible to transit goods that have a very short shelf-life without considerable expense (and very little readily available capacity exists today)
- the huge increases in shipping and airborne freight miles necessary will send the likes of Extinction Rebellion into overdrive
- the pound shows every sign of tanking every time the prospect of No Deal is looking to be a foregone conclusion so the added expense is now a double whammy.

Whereas the EU negotiation team have shown themselves to be a group who are prepared to take the slowly-slowly approach and wait things out - one thing the UK will not have in a No-Deal scenario is time and things will get very tough, very quickly. It's not a game of chicken I'd like to play from the UK side.

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

I know exactly where the negotiations are.

If you think negotiations are closed you are on a different planet. People saying things doesnt make it true. Diplomacy carries on.

Some facesaver will be attempted ( or, indeed, not found).

Leo does not lead the EU side of the negotiating team, thats Barnier's job, true enough , but misses the point . If the Irish say "we're happy without the backstop, and the GFA looks good to us" then time limit of 5 years , agree to work towards mutual solution, or whatever, EU agrees to open it.

Now I agree this is unlikely BUT massive pressure is about to be applied. I would say Foreign Affairs and the Government have a playbook for this whole scenario.

Saying things are closed leaves you open to endplays , all scenarios need consideration.

Even if the negotiations could be reopened, a massive obstacle is that the Brexiteers are deeply divided. There is no unified position on their side and they want different versions of Brexit (ie. many of them want No Deal and nothing else).

There would be a major risk that even if the EU ditched the backstop and signed a new WA. hard Brexiteers would start kicking off within days and maybe refuse to ratify it in the Commons

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Don’t know if you saw Coveney on Marr yesterday but worth a watch. It is not the sound of a man or position that’s under any pressure from any faction or going to cave to the imaginary pressure.
He does sound bored of having to repeat himself on the same points such as those you’ve brought up.
Well worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

BonnieSituation

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Don’t know if you saw Coveney on Marr yesterday but worth a watch. It is not the sound of a man or position that’s under any pressure from any faction or going to cave to the imaginary pressure.
He does sound bored of having to repeat himself on the same points such as those you’ve brought up.
Well worth a watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rKoJfVEZNQ

He really is nailing his brief.

The frustration was kept in check by pure force of will.

The comparison of him and say his equivalent Jeremy Hunt on detail is night and day.

trellheim

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

Water John

One in four UK farmers support a Hard Brexit, the mind boggles. As this guy says, they'll be decimated,
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/a-tsunami-about-to-hit-uk-farmers-mr-brexit/


Well Tories + DUP have a majority of 3. They will lose the August byelection, that means one person to defect to the Lib Dems makes it a minority Govrn't.
With the line up willing to stop Johnson on the No Deal road, he had better try another tack. but doubt he has the brains or skills.

fly_agaric

trellheim wrote: »

I am putting up predictions for what will I believe happen, i.e. massive pressure being applied to Irish Government to find a facesaver.

I think only change EU and Irish government would accept is the "NI only" version of backstop from end 2017 that the DUP shot down.
That is reopening the agreement, but only to replace parts of it with other things the EU (Ireland) were happy to agree to 2 years ago. Only the smaller NI economy in a sort of a twilight zone between the EU and the rest of the post-Brexit UK is (I think?) actually preferable for the EU.

In terms of pressure, it is true that the EU is generally a broken reed and hopelessly divided when it comes to common policy for many external/foreign policy issues beyond trade. So there may be scope there for a much more adversarial/antagonistic UK government to sow discord. Theresa May was fairly restrained and always maintained she wanted the UK to have a good future relationship with the EU and the member states whatever happened in negotiations and would act in good faith within the EU until the UK exited. With Boris Johnson...not so sure that will remain the case.
Whether playing a card like that as they try to exit the EU will somehow benefit the UK in the long run or change the outcome... Its just likely to make everything much worse [edit IMO of course].

trellheim

Water John wrote: »

One in four UK farmers support a Hard Brexit, the mind boggles. As this guy says, they'll be decimated,
https://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/a-tsunami-about-to-hit-uk-farmers-mr-brexit/


Well Tories + DUP have a majority of 3. They will lose the August byelection, that means one person to defect to the Lib Dems makes it a minority Govrn't.
With the line up willing to stop Johnson on the No Deal road, he had better try another tack. but doubt he has the brains or skills.

You need something to vote for to avoid a No deal and it has to make it onto the order paper. The House is refusing to do just that, at the moment.

Stop moaning ffs

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

The UK can’t simply throw out the WA and replace it tomorrow or Wednesday or any day. It’s called an agreement. With the EU27.
They can choose to not sign up to it on October 31st. But unless Johnson drops red lines the WA is going nowhere.

What red lines do you think he’s about to drop?

Sam Russell

trellheim wrote: »

All fair points, and said better than I could, but a clown (or several clowns) are about to be sent into the ring by the UK to do just that who was elected, to do just that.

better to serve as PM of the dumpster fire rather than doing a deal ? What'll stop him ? Even if Parliament stayed in session till Oct 31, all that needs to happen is nothing. And they have ruled out taking no-deal off the table.

Well, not quite.

TM has to recommend a person to become PM who can control a majority in the HoC. Could she, in all conscience, say Johnson would command a majority with ministers resigning ahead of her own resignation?

Even if she does name Johnson as her successor, how long before further resignations or events reduce his current majority of 3/5ths of 5/8ths of FA to no majority at all? Then there will be a vote of No Confidence as night follows day.

Her alternative, which I am sure she will not follow, will be to call on someone like Dominic Grieve to try to form a Government of National Unity, with Tory, Labour, SNP, and Lib Dems plus any others to take the UK out of its current trajectory to crash out, followed by economic doom.

Johnson will get the gig, lie, lie, and tell a few untruths, and fail horribly.

Forecast: GE in in October, extension granted by the EU. New Gov revokes Art 50 and vows to never speak about Brexit again, but draws up plans to strengthen the UK position within the EU by joining the Euro, and strengthen the EU military capabilities by providing two aircraft carriers that the UK has no planes that can land on them.

We will see.

VinLieger

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

That means absolutely nothing as international agreements don;t suddenly end with the forming of a new government, its a key feature of them.


Brexiteers can believe everything they want, in fact many of them do but it doesn't change the fact that negotiations are closed until the red lines are removed.

Water John

If there is one defection between Tues and Wed, she cannot recommend Johnson to the Queen to be PM.

trellheim

But unless Johnson drops red lines the WA is going nowhere.

What red lines do you think he’s about to drop?

they are not his red lines and it will be a new government that will look very different ( resist, if you will, the description of clown cars )

new PM could have a thatcher/falklands moment on Iran but thats a hefty step up in international relations.

international agreements don;t suddenly end with the forming of a new government, its a key feature of them.

true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

KildareP

trellheim wrote: »

they are not his red lines and it will be a new government that will look very different ( resist, if you will, the description of clown cars )

new PM could have a thatcher/falklands moment on Iran but thats a hefty step up in international relations.



true - if they are ratified - which the WA very specifically is not, its what all the kerfuffle is about.

Not his red lines but the UK's.

Johnson or Hunt taking up residence in #10 does absolutely nothing to change the current state of play, no more than changing solicitor by itself will change the outcome of divorce proceedings.

Strazdas

trellheim wrote: »

Saw it and read the transcript to make sure I had the nuance right. The current UK government that agreed the WA is in place until tomorrow or Wednesday , then it will be a different one. I said above that pressure will be applied. Expect different tacks to be taken.

Currently Brexiteers believe they are being far too soft.

An international agreement or treaty does not become defunct with a change of government, that's not the way it works. The government of the day negotiates on behalf of 'the state' and it's essentially 'the state' that signs the agreement. A new government can't come in and say 'that agreement no longer applies now that we are in power'.