Golf Betting MegaThread * See Mod warning in post #2 & 214*

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-07-2019 8:57pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

Not even at 1000....
He might hit 66 tomorrow and still miss the cut.... But really I think his head is gone and he'll battle to a 70/71 and leave on a whimper

Likely so, would be some laugh to get another 61 and get back in it.

Reckon he just needs Mr.Miyagi mentor to attain Samurai chi-like zen focus, swing/putt on and swing/putt off x1000. Or the crane stance on the 1st.
Shakes things up slightly, along with Scott and Tiger out of the frame also.

sydthebeat · 18-07-2019 9:02pm

He's heading out at 3pm tomorrow into the worst of the days weather.....

eagle eye · 18-07-2019 9:05pm

Koepka 4/1 in Boyles with 8 places. I'm on pre-tournament but I think it's still an enticing bet.

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-07-2019 9:19pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Koepka 4/1 in Boyles with 8 places. I'm on pre-tournament but I think it's still an enticing bet.

Wonder if that is a system/human error to have 8pl still available.
With a theoretical shortening of the field by up to 70% (only 25-30% are under par) and the pre-fav glancing at the suitcase.

4/1 too short, there is however some price parity via with Holmes 34.0 or Rose 15 on spoils.

eagle eye · 18-07-2019 9:35pm

Londyn Sweet Week wrote:

4/1 too short, there is however some price parity via with Holmes 34.0 or Rose 15 on spoils.

4/1 isn't too short when the guy has already put himself in contention, has a caddy who knows the course better than anybody else in the field and whose last four major results are 1-2-1-2.

4068ac1elhodqr · 18-07-2019 9:41pm

eagle eye wrote: »

4/1 isn't too short when the guy has already put himself in contention, has a caddy who knows the course better than anybody else in the field and whose last four major results are 1-2-1-2.

But if you already have 'pre-tournament' @12+, it might well be.

Agree he'll likely do very well, but the place part (1/5) of coming 2nd at that current price isn't overly exciting. A win(only) enhanced acca might suit better.

sydthebeat · 18-07-2019 10:48pm

I think 4/1 is way too short at this stage, for a player 2 behind and facing into a weekend of weather he's not used to, on a links course he's not used to either.... Regardless of his caddy.

I think BK as leader after round 2 is a much more attractive offer at 11/2, given his tee time and the expected weather.

Possibly something small on Tommy F @10s as well....

18-07-2019 11:02pm

JB holmes is a poor putter, and he hit a fair few dodgy putts coming in, I can't see him holding on over the course of 3 more rounds. On the flip side he was great tee to green I just can't see him holing enough (any) clutch putts when the pressure is on.

18-07-2019 11:04pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

I think 4/1 is way too short at this stage, for a player 2 behind and facing into a weekend of weather he's not used to, on a links course he's not used to either.... Regardless of his caddy.

I think BK as leader after round 2 is a much more attractive offer at 11/2, given his tee time and the expected weather.

Possibly something small on Tommy F @10s as well....

I wouldnt say he is not used to it, he cut his teeth over in Europe on the challenge tour, but I do agree its too short at this stage

sydthebeat · 19-07-2019 8:45am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I wouldnt say he is not used to it, he cut his teeth over in Europe on the challenge tour, but I do agree its too short at this stage

Yeah fair point on the challenge tour, conditions won't be alien to him, but it's been six years and at that most of his good results on the tour were in sunnier conditions. Still, the guys a machine and I think him leading after day two is a great bet.

Loafing Oaf · 19-07-2019 12:05pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Focusing on the specialist markets again:

Top ROTW: Scott, Haotong, Bezuidenhout
Top Australasian: Fox
Top Asian: Janewattananond
Without big boys: Leishman, Oosthuizen

Fox had been my last best hope but he's struggling to make the cut at this rate:(

sky88 · 19-07-2019 12:43pm

sky88 wrote: »

fowler as a main bet as always hell win one day for me but always worth an each way bet
fitzpatrick
Haotong LI
Mickelson small bet enticed by the 90-1

i keeping small bit away for sunday as with supposed bad weather i think someone could make a charge early and do enough

i just realised i put Patrick reed on instead of Li im delighted with my error

sydthebeat · 19-07-2019 1:03pm

sydthebeat wrote: »

I think 4/1 is way too short at this stage, for a player 2 behind and facing into a weekend of weather he's not used to, on a links course he's not used to either.... Regardless of his caddy.

I think BK as leader after round 2 is a much more attractive offer at 11/2, given his tee time and the expected weather.

Possibly something small on Tommy F @10s as well....

Cashed out on TF Friday leader for about 1.5

PhuckHugh22 · 20-07-2019 12:04am

Trying to take a few flyers on the chasing pack going into the weekend. Want to take on some of the top few as think they are far to short.

That being said I think Lowry should be favorite so have backed him at 15/2.

DJ at 30/1 5 places
Xander at 40/1 5 places
Finau at 50/1 5 places.

I do have JT pre tournament at 33/1 10 places so chance of a place on him. With an extremely outside win chance.

eagle eye · 20-07-2019 12:16am

I'm adding Cam Smith tomorrow, just like the look of him.

iluvfatfrogs · 20-07-2019 7:39am

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm adding Cam Smith tomorrow, just like the look of him.

Buddy of mine backed him @250/1 yesterday morning, had a great round yesterday

Mantis Toboggan · 20-07-2019 8:40am

I like the 4/5 on winning score higher than 10.5.

Also with the good conditions today I like the 11/1 on Fleetwood and 28/1 on Holmes for a bogey free round for interest.

eagle eye · 20-07-2019 8:45am

Mantis Toboggan wrote:

Also with the good conditions today I like the 11/1 on Fleetwood and 28/1 on Holmes for a bogey free round for internet.

I don't think either have an earthly of doing that. I'd wanna be getting over 100's to be tempted.

Mantis Toboggan wrote:

I like the 4/5 on winning score higher than 10.5.

I did a run on that last night and it came out at 10.4.

Mantis Toboggan · 20-07-2019 9:26am

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't think either have an earthly of doing that. I'd wanna be getting over 100's to be tempted.

I did a run on that last night and it came out at 10.4.

Tommy only has 2 bogies and Holmes 3 bogies in 36 holes. 28/1 is quite high for JB considering he's playing well and out in the better conditions after lunch.

Loafing Oaf · 20-07-2019 9:59am

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm adding Cam Smith tomorrow, just like the look of him.

Well beauty is in the eye of the beholder I suppose:P

I'm actually on Cameron myself, double on him to be top 5 and Donegal to beat Kerry as a sort of cover for this

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Top Australasian: Fox

Of course it's highly likely Smith will finish outside the top 5 but still miles ahead of Fox, but felt I had to have something on him given he is AFAICS the only other Aussie left

eagle eye · 20-07-2019 12:24pm

So backed Cam Smith to win it and for a bogey free round @ 25's and each way for third round lead 18/1. Did Brooks for bogey free 9/1 and 3rd round lead 15/2 each way.

redzerdrog · 20-07-2019 12:41pm

Tony Finua @50/1 5places looks a decent in play bet

Mantis Toboggan · 20-07-2019 12:49pm

redzerdrog wrote: »

Tony Finua @50/1 5places looks a decent in play bet

Where did you get him @ 50?

PhuckHugh22 · 20-07-2019 1:21pm

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Where did you get him @ 50?

Backed him myself 50/1 in Boyles last night.

eagle eye · 20-07-2019 1:27pm

Finau is not a good enough putter to do it imo.

4068ac1elhodqr · 20-07-2019 1:37pm

A certain book seems to be a slight jiffy slow on price adjusts, when coupled with a certain live data feed.
Hence Cantlay was very recently available @100(5pl) but moved to 80's seconds ago.

It's a small 120sec window usually, but still a window of opportunity all the same.
Much more adventerous (and unlikely) was Glover @501 (now 400) sitting on a small mixed e/w treble.

Have a feeling it will bunch up at the top today with big names, only to desend into random chaos tommorow.

PhuckHugh22 · 20-07-2019 1:45pm

Putting is the most over rated of the stats. Finau while not the best putter. Is hardly a bad. A way better ball striker than a lot of those in front of him on the board. Would like to see some of the SG stats for this week but think the 50/1 is at least 10 points bigger than I'd have it.

eagle eye · 20-07-2019 1:58pm

PhuckHugh22 wrote:

Putting is the most over rated of the stats. Finau while not the best putter. Is hardly a bad. A way better ball striker than a lot of those in front of him on the board. Would like to see some of the SG stats for this week but think the 50/1 is at least 10 points bigger than I'd have it.

Putting is important at the Open, on links courses.
His putting is awful, if he was a half decent putter he'd have about 10 wins by now.
I'm a big fan of the man but his putter is seriously holding him back.

PhuckHugh22 · 20-07-2019 1:59pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Putting is important at the Open, on links courses.
His putting is awful, if he was a half decent putter he'd have about 10 wins by now.
I'm a big fan of the man but his putter is seriously holding him back.

Pretty similar putting stats this year to the pre tournament favorite.

eagle eye · 20-07-2019 2:01pm

PhuckHugh22 wrote:

Pretty similar putting stats this year to the pre tournament favorite.

Yeah and he hasn't putted well. He said it himself after his round yesterday.

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Golf Betting MegaThread * See Mod warning in post #2 & 214*