Golf Betting MegaThread *** See Mod warning in post #2 & 214***

IAMAMORON

spacecoyote wrote: »

Furyk - 41 Hit (average drive 275)
Molin - 38 Hit (average drive 291)
Tiger - 38 Hit (average drive 297)
Rory - 35 Hit (average drive 315)
Koep - 34 Hit (average drive 308)
DJ - 31 Hit (average drive 310)

So, Furyk will hit roughly 2 more Fairways per round than Brooks, but Brooks hits the ball, on average, roughly 30yrds longer than Furyk.

He is available at 80/1 10 places. That is a no brainer, you won't miss a fiver ew at that price on Monday morning.

I would be entirely confident of Molinari finishing top ten also. He was unlucky at Augusta in fairness.

Blud

spacecoyote wrote: »

If you look at the accuracy numbers though, they're not really enormously different, over 4 days doing a comparison of, for simplicities sake:

Furyk, Molinari, Tiger, Koepka, Rory & DJ

Over 56 holes, you'd be looking at (based on the average stats from PGA Tour):

Furyk - 41 Hit (average drive 275)
Molin - 38 Hit (average drive 291)
Tiger - 38 Hit (average drive 297)
Rory - 35 Hit (average drive 315)
Koep - 34 Hit (average drive 308)
DJ - 31 Hit (average drive 310)

The FIR above is with all clubs, the distance is with Driver (the FIR with Driver numbers are negligibly different)

So, Furyk will hit roughly 2 more Fairways per round than Brooks, but Brooks hits the ball, on average, roughly 30yrds longer than Furyk.

Versus Rory, its 1.5 more hit per round, but giving up 40yrds on Average

Absolutely, with that rough, accuracy is a big factor, but I'm pretty sure that I read that the winners at Pebble (at both the majors & the AT&T) have generally been at the top end of the field in Distance off the tee rather than accuracy.

Aren't the greens quite small in Pebble, which would favour the guys coming in with less club surely? Also, my understanding is they're expecting the course to play relatively soft, so would make it play a bit longer off the tee

The fact that the stats for accuracy are with all clubs is telling though. Furyk is accurate with driver so can hit driver in Pebble and get that distance. The others less accurate will not hit driver so wont get that distance.

That said, McIlroy can probably hit a 3 iron 265 yards or so, so wont exactly be miles behind others hitting driver.

It's all about iron play this week I reckon. Someone like Stenson should go well.

spacecoyote

Blud wrote: »

The fact that the stats for accuracy are with all clubs is telling though. Furyk is accurate with driver so can hit driver in Pebble and get that distance. The others less accurate will not hit driver so wont get that distance.

That said, McIlroy can probably hit a 3 iron 265 yards or so, so wont exactly be miles behind others hitting driver.

It's all about iron play this week I reckon. Someone like Stenson should go well.

OK, I put in the Accuracy off the tee number because people were saying players wouldn't generally need to hit driver as much.

But the Driver accuracy numbers would be:

Furyk - 42 Hit
Molinari - 37 Hit
Tiger - 36 Hit
Koepka - 34 Hit
Rory - 33 Hit
DJ - 31 Hit

So it really isn't significant. Rory hitting 2 less over 4 rounds, Brooks no change, Tiger 2 less, DJ no change, Molinari 1 less

Blud

spacecoyote wrote: »

OK, I put in the Accuracy off the tee number because people were saying players wouldn't generally need to hit driver as much.

But the Driver accuracy numbers would be:

Furyk - 42 Hit
Molinari - 37 Hit
Tiger - 36 Hit
Koepka - 34 Hit
Rory - 33 Hit
DJ - 31 Hit

So it really isn't significant. Rory hitting 2 less over 4 rounds, Brooks no change, Tiger 2 less, DJ no change, Molinari 1 less

But those stats show Rory hitting 9 fewer fairways than Furyk over 4 rounds - with rough like Pebble, that's potentially an 18 shot difference.

I'm not sure what point you are making here. What I see from that is that Rory cannot afford to hit driver, whereas Furyk possibly could.

The real mccoy 91

Backing more than I usually do this week came down on

Phil 55 ew
Tiger 12s ew
DJ 17/2 win
Spieth 22 ew
Sneds 50 ew

First round leader

Wiesberger 125 (6 places)
Van rooyen 100 (6 places)
Grillo 90 (5 places)
Kaymer 66 (8 places)

LuckyGent88

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

I’ll go with Brooks for the win again. 9/1 is a very fair price. How can you go against him anymore!!!

Not much said about Molinari so will go with him e/w

A few outsider bets in Jim Furyk and Martin Kaymer!! Both in good form.

Thrown money on Tiger and Fleetwood too!! Should have all bases covered

BOB81

Just went with all of the below each way - hoping it is a week where the slightly shorter course length puts a few more guys in contention than just the bombers.

Webb Simpson 40/1
Jim Furyk 100/1
Erik van Rooyen 125/1
Rafa Cabrera bello 150/1

IAMAMORON

Blud wrote: »

But those stats show Rory hitting 9 fewer fairways than Furyk over 4 rounds - with rough like Pebble, that's potentially an 18 shot difference.

I think McElroy is very tricky to assess. He is not all that consistent. He is either very very good or he isn't. When he is playing well he won't miss a fairway ( ie Congressional, Kiawah, Wentworth ). You have to take a stance that he is either in form or not. After last weekend you would be forgiven for thinking that all is well.

In saying that his price his poor enough. But the bookies are really covering the place angle. They have 155 chances to get him beat.

spacecoyote

Blud wrote: »

But those stats show Rory hitting 9 fewer fairways than Furyk over 4 rounds - with rough like Pebble, that's potentially an 18 shot difference.

I'm not sure what point you are making here. What I see from that is that Rory cannot afford to hit driver, whereas Furyk possibly could.

I guess the point I was making was that maybe a focus on accuracy isn't the be all & end all given the stats seem to bear out that distance is a bigger predictor, historically, at Pebble.

But, admittedly, a top 10 for Furyk is probably a pretty solid bet, it's likely his best shout at that kind of result of all the majors

The real mccoy 91

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think McElroy is very tricky to assess. He is not all that consistent. He is either very very good or he isn't. When he is playing well he won't miss a fairway ( ie Congressional, Kiawah, Wentworth ). You have to take a stance that he is either in form or not. After last weekend you would be forgiven for thinking that all is well.

In saying that his price his poor enough. But the bookies are really covering the place angle. They have 155 chances to get him beat.

For once in my life I found myself agreeing with McGinley this week I think it's 28 tournaments Rory has won the lowest winning score is -12 so when the course is set up to be got at he can have a field day he struggles in tough scoring conditions and that's the stamp of the us open. More value in the 9/2 for him to miss the cut this week than the 8/1 for him to win it imo

Loafing Oaf

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I think McElroy is very tricky to assess. He is not all that consistent. He is either very very good or he isn't.

On this basis I'm going with
Both Rory and DJ top 5
McDowell and Lowry top Irish

Dbu

Jason Day, with Williams on bag..done deal:D

eagle eye

Koepka was favourite to be overnight leader after 6 holes of his round yesterday. His tee shots were poor for a lot of the round. He was straight on the range after he finished last night. The desire to win is as intense as ever obviously. I'd expect to see him make a big move today.

Viktor Hovland really impressed me yesterday. Went toe to toe with Brooks early doors, fell all the way back to level par and finished -2. Big future for this guy and I wouldn't rule out a good run in this tournament. He just looked so composed for the most of the round.

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

McDowell and Lowry top Irish

G-Mac now apparently 20/1 with PP in this market, even though he's only a shot behind R-Mac.

spacecoyote

eagle eye wrote: »

Koepka was favourite to be overnight leader after 6 holes of his round yesterday. His tee shots were poor for a lot of the round. He was straight on the range after he finished last night. The desire to win is as intense as ever obviously. I'd expect to see him make a big move today.

Viktor Hovland really impressed me yesterday. Went toe to toe with Brooks early doors, fell all the way back to level par and finished -2. Big future for this guy and I wouldn't rule out a good run in this tournament. He just looked so composed for the most of the round.

Backed Hovland at around 6/1 for a top 30 finish, so hopefully he can keep it up.

An interesting mix at the top of the leaderboard after day 1, I think a lot of people have really slept on the likes of Rose. Another name up there that could be in the mix is Stenson. Given the bulk of the field are not hitting a lot of drives, that really plays into Stenson's game

Hitch2222

spacecoyote wrote: »

Backed Hovland at around 6/1 for a top 30 finish, so hopefully he can keep it up.

An interesting mix at the top of the leaderboard after day 1, I think a lot of people have really slept on the likes of Rose. Another name up there that could be in the mix is Stenson. Given the bulk of the field are not hitting a lot of drives, that really plays into Stenson's game

I looked at Stenson pre-match but an incredible lack of form this year deterred me. The Canadian was his only Top 10 this year, that said his form has certainly improved as the year has gone on

IAMAMORON

Winds forecast to be extremely light. I would expect more good scores today. Decent weather etc.

https://tides4fishing.com/us/california/monterey#_weather

I had a look at the prices there. PP only 8/1 about Koepke. I respect that he is beginning to look like Robocop out there , but he is 4 shots back. 8/1 is appalling.

At the same time I see Martin Kaymer available at 70/1 6 places. He is on the same mark, is well capable of pulling a Robocop and had a shocking start yesterday. He went on to shoot 6 birdies. I have had a nibble.

tayto lover

Hitch2222 wrote: »

I looked at Stenson pre-match but an incredible lack of form this year deterred me. The Canadian was his only Top 10 this year, that said his form has certainly improved as the year has gone on

Stenson seems to like links courses.
His form is returning.
I put a few euro e/w on him @ 50/1 along with a few others for an interest.

IAMAMORON

The wind is forecast to touch 10 mph later in the day, this will affect later groups if it starts to get gusty. The tide is rising from half three local onwards. It could be interesting later in the day for the leaders.

https://tides4fishing.com/us/california/monterey#_weather

Anyone out early and posting a good score etc.

I am not talking winds of biblical proportions here, but an 8mph difference could make a difference, particularly if it is picking up.

Early forecasts are for low winds tomorrow.

eagle eye

A 10 mpg wind in this course will affect things.
The big names that have struggled to this point will feel that if they put a score together they will be right back in this.
Fleetwood, Cantlay, Leishman and Day might all be worth a pop for top ten.

callaway92

callaway92 wrote: »

Cross-Posting from Gambling forum:

Viktor Hovland best amateur.

Won US Amateur Open at Pebble Beach in 2018 and was best amateur at the Masters this year.

Snedeker FRL
Mickelson, Justin Thomas, Oosthuizen, Rose outright.

Louis letting me down when it matters today!

Rikand

GMAC the only pony I have left

IAMAMORON

I have a golden rule on final day punting that I never select a golfer who is worse than 6 shots offs. This allows for the leader to capitulate and a golfer to shoot a 65 and win the tournament. It rarely happens however.

There is actually only 6 people who realistically can now win. In fairness I would lean towards Woodland to bottle before Rose ( if he does bottle ). Rose is not a panicker and won't get the heebies if a chase develops.

However I have looked at some of the prices on players on -4, If you take the line that both Woodland and Rose as a group have a nightmare. ie slow play winds them up, or collectivity they have a bad day there are some juicy prices available, albeit only 3 places now.

Koepke looks dangerous at -7. He is slowly turning into one of the all time greats. A 3rd US open in a row would be something else. When you drive into the rough, hack out into deep rough 10 foot from the hole, hack out to 30 feet and then hold a downhill swerver for par you have to really check yourself. Other players would have cursed the ground, broke a club and double bogeyed.

tobsey

Slow play ahead won’t bother Rose and Woodland. The penultimate group had walked off the 18th green before they even teed off. Rose is slow, it didn’t seem to bother woodland yesterday though.

eagle eye

The danger for Woodland and Rose is that they get into matchplay mode. Somebody could creep up on them very quickly.
It's very easy in their position to fall into the trap of marking each and taking the safe option if the other guy is in trouble.

FixdePitchmark

tobsey wrote: »

Slow play ahead won’t bother Rose and Woodland. The penultimate group had walked off the 18th green before they even teed off. Rose is slow, it didn’t seem to bother woodland yesterday though.

Rose (I don't like anyway), but his putting routine is a joke.

Pissartist

I fancy Brooks if he can hole a few putts

Rikand

Couple of interest bets on Robert Rock, Lucas Bjerragard and Gmac(former south of ireland winner at lahinch)

callaway92

Ryan Fox
Soren Kjeldsen
Graeme McDowell

ionadnapokot

I’m on Rahm, Stenson & Xander S
Staying clear of Tiger, Brooks, DJ and Rose at the top of the market
Managed to get Hovland at 200s during the PGA.
Looking for another 150+...Paul Warwing 250/1. looked good at Lahinch T7 and T48 in Scotland.
Considered Harrington but his putting put me off!