Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

BobbyBobberson · 17-07-2019 02:03PM

Strazdas wrote: »

If the hard right / nutcases have departed the stage and more moderate people are running the country, anything is possible. One wonders though if the UK will still even exist at that stage.

Scotland to vetos England's application to join. You heard it here first.

pixelburp · 17-07-2019 02:09PM

One would presume it'd require a seismic shift in the cultural tone of the UK for them to return to the EU; specifically, were they to re-join, there'd be problems around the requirement to enter the Euro. I'd wager most remainers would still be quite fond and protective of their Sterling, and unless the two parties agreed to another opt-out for the UK, it'd be that sticking point that would hold any process back.

Professor Moriarty · 17-07-2019 02:30PM

Having already slumped to $1.24, a two year low, Sterling will be hammered in the event of No Deal according to Morgan Stanley:

The pound may fall to parity with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit, according to Morgan Stanley. A drop to historic lows of $1.00-$1.10 would come under the market’s worst-case scenario of the U.K. leaving the European Union without a deal, a risk that the bank says is growing. The pound hit a two-year low below $1.24 Wednesday after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, the contenders battling to become Britain’s next prime minister, hardened their Brexit rhetoric.

kunst nugget · 17-07-2019 02:43PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Having already slumped to $1.24, a two year low, Sterling will be hammered in the event of No Deal according to Morgan Stanley:

The pound may fall to parity with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit, according to Morgan Stanley. A drop to historic lows of $1.00-$1.10 would come under the market’s worst-case scenario of the U.K. leaving the European Union without a deal, a risk that the bank says is growing. The pound hit a two-year low below $1.24 Wednesday after Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, the contenders battling to become Britain’s next prime minister, hardened their Brexit rhetoric.

Jesus, they are going beyond talking about parity with the euro...

Gerry T · 17-07-2019 02:52PM

brickster69 wrote:

Who came second ?

I've seen this comment on Twitter but refrained from answering as I dont think people care.
There were a number of candidates for the commission president. The EU parliament get to nominate a candidate. The EU council (basically 28 prime ministers from each member state) gets to select and nominate from all nominees their choice as next commission president. That nomination goes to the EU parliament for ratification, once passed we then have out next commission president, serving 5yr term.

So yes there are a number of candidates, and yes each country has an equal say as to who they want and the the elected MEPs get a say to confirm the nomination.

The vote wasn't close and I would guess most UK Meps would have voted no, for one reason only, their mostly dickhexds. If their votes were discounted it would show a true EU vote.

Now back to the election of the next UK prime minister, a vote of the people, well 260,000 of them anyway, a true democracy.

Water John · 17-07-2019 02:56PM

Have each member of the Tory Party 2 votes, Gerry? Electorate is around 130,000 TMK.

Tell me how · 17-07-2019 02:58PM

Gerry T wrote: »

Now back to the election of the next UK prime minister, a vote of the people, well 260,000 of them anyway, a true democracy.

Think the figure is less than 160k members.

Seth Brundle · 17-07-2019 02:59PM

Gerry T wrote: »

Now back to the election of the next UK prime minister, a vote of the people, well 260,000 of them anyway, a true democracy.

160,000 actually!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)

Gerry T · 17-07-2019 03:00PM

Water John wrote:

Have each member of the Tory Party 2 votes, Gerry? Electorate is around 130,000 TMK.

Thks, strengthens the point being made though.

As this is a new PM, not elected during a general election I presume the next PM will have to follow the manifest of the originally elected party.

VinLieger · 17-07-2019 03:01PM

Water John wrote: »

Have each member of the Tory Party 2 votes, Gerry? Electorate is around 130,000 TMK.

There are reports of quite a few people receiving two voting cards

MrMusician18 · 17-07-2019 03:23PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd a quick google and found this:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jul/17/brexit-fears-pound-lows-uk-inflation-house-prices-business-live

Yeah, correlation doesn't equate to causation but until we actually get Brexit, the best we can do is to form conclusions based on estimates. As a London resident, I see no other reason for this slump. The link quotes the head of an estate agents firm:

That is all conjecture on behalf of person quoted. No evidence is offered. The fall in house prices could also be attributed to a slowing global economy either as the business cycle ends.

Every bad news story cannot be pinned on Brexit, at least not without evidence. In fact this fall in process should've been seen earlier as Brexit was already meant to have happened.

ancapailldorcha · 17-07-2019 03:30PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That is all conjecture on behalf of person quoted. No evidence is offered. The fall in house prices could also be attributed to a slowing global economy either as the business cycle ends.

Every bad news story cannot be pinned on Brexit, at least not without evidence. In fact this fall in process should've been seen earlier as Brexit was already meant to have happened.

I'll take the opinion of someone in the sector whose job it is to know about these things as the next best thing thanks.

Sam Russell · 17-07-2019 03:41PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That is all conjecture on behalf of person quoted. No evidence is offered. The fall in house prices could also be attributed to a slowing global economy either as the business cycle ends.

Every bad news story cannot be pinned on Brexit, at least not without evidence. In fact this fall in process should've been seen earlier as Brexit was already meant to have happened.

Sterling was85p early may. It is 90.2p today and looking at below parity if there is a no-deal. If I was a property investor, I would be selling some time ago, which is probably why London prices are falling.

Brexit on No Deal terms in not WA Brexit - not at all. It could be getting to fire sale time.

irishash · 17-07-2019 03:53PM

So the brexit party re-tweeted a picture yesterday which they claimed showed them as the only party in a near empty parliament that bothered to show up for debates. Quite the coup, until somebody zoomed in on the watch one of them was wearing, saw the time displayed (16:15) and deduced that the parliament was on a break at that time.

And people are still arguing that the picture is as they claim !!!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1151144104413282304

Strazdas · 17-07-2019 03:59PM

irishash wrote: »

So the brexit party re-tweeted a picture yesterday which they claimed showed them as the only party in a near empty parliament that bothered to show up for debates. Quite the coup, until somebody zoomed in on the watch one of them was wearing, saw the time displayed (16:15) and deduced that the parliament was on a break at that time.

And people are still arguing that the picture is as they claim !!!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1151144104413282304

All of the garbage on their various Twitter pages seems aimed solely at the Brexit disciples. They don't even care about anyone else who knows they are lying.

ambro25 · 17-07-2019 04:05PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That is all conjecture on behalf of person quoted. No evidence is offered. The fall in house prices could also be attributed to a slowing global economy either as the business cycle ends.

Every bad news story cannot be pinned on Brexit, at least not without evidence. In fact this fall in process should've been seen earlier as Brexit was already meant to have happened.

London has seen thousands of highly-solvent individuals (traders, asset managers, reinsurers, EMA workers, MMA legal eagles, etc) leave over the past 3 years.

Mountains of evidence of the above in mass and social media, moreover corroborated at street level for me (I've got a very high profile ex-UK asset management firm for neighbours, besides all the other 'new' ex-City Luxembourgers I've been meeting week-in, week-out over the past 18 months).

What you are seeing with falling house prices, is just one of the more media-worthy consequences of this slow and steady brain and wealth drain, itself caused by enduring political uncertainty (not Brexit: it hasn't happened yet). We sold in December 2017, close to peak market for our neck of the (northern) UK woods.

J Mysterio · 17-07-2019 04:17PM

kunst nugget wrote: »

Jesus, they are going beyond talking about parity with the euro...

Not sure why parity with the Euro hasn't already been achieved. The markets are... something something.

J Mysterio · 17-07-2019 04:21PM

irishash wrote: »

So the brexit party re-tweeted a picture yesterday which they claimed showed them as the only party in a near empty parliament that bothered to show up for debates. Quite the coup, until somebody zoomed in on the watch one of them was wearing, saw the time displayed (16:15) and deduced that the parliament was on a break at that time.

And people are still arguing that the picture is as they claim !!!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuroGuido/status/1151144104413282304

My god, is there nothing these swine won't lie about? Have they no moral fibre whatsoever?

10000maniacs · 17-07-2019 04:27PM

When the BBC good news bears report that UK wage increases are at a 10 year high, they never factor in that the pound is down 60 percentage points on the dollar since 2009.

irishash · 17-07-2019 04:36PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not sure why parity with the Euro hasn't already been achieved. The markets are... something something.

Sterling has lost value to all other major traded currencies in the last year.

MrMusician18 · 17-07-2019 06:34PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'll take the opinion of someone in the sector whose job it is to know about these things as the next best thing thanks.

It's just an opinion, conjecture, not backed up by any fact.

Property price growth has been slowing since Jan 2016 in London.

Don't be too quick to blame Brexit for everything.

Seth Brundle · 17-07-2019 06:46PM

Brexit secretary claims EU will start trade talks very quickly after no-deal because of UK's 'size and importance'

The bloc’s unity will crumble under pressure from its voters and businesses once the “impact of no-deal” is felt, the Brexit secretary told a committee of MPs.

During the evidence session, Mr Barclay also:

* Did not deny the National Farmers’ Union warning of a mass slaughter of lambs after a crash-out Brexit – but said farmers would be compensated.

* Denied a bust-up with Michel Barnier, the EU’s Brexit negotiator, because he insisted the withdrawal agreement would have to be ripped up.

Mr Barclay said he says he had simply said the deal would not get through the Commons as it stands, adding: “I did not think that was a particularly controversial observation.

* Criticised the car industry for saying no-deal was “simply not an option” – saying that was “factually incorrect, because it was the legal position of the government”.

* Insisted fears of food and medicine shortages after a no-deal Brexit were exaggerated – confirming new ferry contracts would be struck, despite the Chris Grayling fiasco.

* Said EU could still be allowed into UK waters under a no-deal – as the UK sought a “continuity approach”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-eu-trade-talks-stephen-barclay-a9008136.html

marno21 · 17-07-2019 06:48PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brexit secretary claims EU will start trade talks very quickly after no-deal because of UK's 'size and importance'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-eu-trade-talks-stephen-barclay-a9008136.html

With that level of unfounded arrogance you would depressingly accept the relatively high chance of no deal happening. Comical stuff.

BluePlanet · 17-07-2019 06:50PM

Strazdas wrote: »

If the UK leave the EU without the backstop. there would be no incentive whatsoever for the Brexiteers to solve the Irish border issue.
They'd have bigger fish to fry and the border wouldn't even be a priority for them.

I agree with this.
They'll get poked and prodded by WTO members when non-tariffed goods are entering via the border,
Right now i believe the British plan is basically to remove all tariffs on goods entering the UK with the exception of some select industry:

Tariffs will be cut to zero on 87% of imports to the UK as part of a temporary no-deal plan, but prices of some imports including meat, shoes, underpants and cars will go up.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexit-tariffs-on-87-of-uk-imports-cut-to-zero-in-temporary-no-deal-plan

I"m not an economist so don't really know what a no tariff situation like that will do.

Frank Bullitt · 17-07-2019 06:50PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Brexit secretary claims EU will start trade talks very quickly after no-deal because of UK's 'size and importance'

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-eu-trade-talks-stephen-barclay-a9008136.html

Its No Deal more than ever at this point.

Call me Al · 17-07-2019 06:51PM

Mr Barclay has really taken the "believe" memo seriously.
As a basis for these huge statements did he back up with any concrete facts?

Eta quote:
"He noted the “size and importance of the UK on the border of the EU” as a reason why Brussels would have to shift its stance."
Was the obvious flip side of this coin pointed out to him I wonder.

VinLieger · 17-07-2019 06:51PM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Not sure why parity with the Euro hasn't already been achieved. The markets are... something something.

Ive seen Brexiteers honestly arguing the currency tanking is a good thing and they need it to be able to trade better post Brexit as their stuff will be cheaper.

Obviously they arent understanding that they import far more than they export therefore the drop in currency actually doesnt help them at all

Evd-Burner · 17-07-2019 07:37PM

I'm at a stage now where I am sick and tired of hearing how utterly stupid some of these people are. Any form of Brexit is going to have a major impact and they don't seem to comprehend any negative impact at all!

I hate myself for thinking this (as Ireland will inevitably suffer) way but I'm actually at the point where I want them to go through the pain of a no deal just so they cop on!

Frank Bullitt · 17-07-2019 07:41PM

Another glorious watch from C4.

jochenstacker · 17-07-2019 07:45PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

I agree with this.
They'll get poked and prodded by WTO members when non-tariffed goods are entering via the border,
Right now i believe the British plan is basically to remove all tariffs on goods entering the UK with the exception of some select industry:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/13/brexit-tariffs-on-87-of-uk-imports-cut-to-zero-in-temporary-no-deal-plan

I"m not an economist so don't really know what a no tariff situation like that will do.

Well...

Tariffs will be cut to zero on 87% of imports to the UK as part of a temporary no-deal plan, but prices of some imports including meat, shoes, underpants and cars will go up.

I KNEW IT!!
Brexit is Underpants Economics

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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