Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali · 11-07-2019 09:58AM

Dytalus wrote: »

It would be just like Turkey wanting to join - a 3rd country, starting from scratch to meet the Copenhagen Criteria.

No, it would be very different. Scotland is a nation of EU citizens who were dragged out of the EU by England against their express will.

Once independent, I think a strong case can be made for fast-tracking their re-entry and skipping the usual 3rd country process. East Germany got a pass, NI has been guaranteed a pass in advance if they vote for a United Ireland.

Scotland should get help, not obstacles.

Professor Moriarty · 11-07-2019 10:02AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it would be very different. Scotland is a nation of EU citizens who were dragged out of the EU by England against their express will.

Once independent, I think a strong case can be made for fast-tracking their re-entry and skipping the usual 3rd country process. East Germany got a pass, NI has been guaranteed a pass in advance if they vote for a United Ireland.

Scotland should get help, not obstacles.

I agree but will the EU see it to be in its members interests? Will it be seen to encourage others to seek independence? The Catalans spring to mind.

Peregrinus · 11-07-2019 10:03AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Current polls indicate that only 32% of people are in favour of a No Deal Brexit. This fact, along with the fact that No Deal will be an immediate economic disaster, will entrench people but will entrench EU supporters much more that Hard Brexit supporters.

Only 32% favour a no-deal Brexit but the remaining 68% do not necessarily favour a deal; they are split between those who favour a deal, those who favour remain and the don't-knows.

The ground shifts after Brexit; a WA is no longer possible, obviously. Whether people will favour a post-Brexit deal will depend on the terms of the deal, and they have yet to be negotiated. Remain is also not an option, obviously, and I wouldn't assume that Remainers will seamlessly become Rejoiners, especially as "Rejoin!" will be seen as a long-term political project, not an immediately-available option.

So I think things will be quite up in the air for a time after Brexit, and it would be a foolish pundit who would nail his colours to the mast of any very specific prediction about how things will turn out.

The mainstream Brexiter position is that the UK will wish to move on to negotiating an FTA with the EU. Delusional bolt-ons to this central idea are (a) the EU will miraculously reassess its priorities and decide that it doesn't need a border guarantee after all; (b) the EU will need this FTA more than the UK does; and (c) this will be quick and easy. But when you dismiss this arrant nonsense the core idea - that the next step is for the UK to seek an EU FTA - is basically correct.

But, even if the UK immediately agree to the EU position on financial settlement, citizens rights, no-hard-border, an FTA is going to take some time to negotiate. So Ireland, and hopefully the EU, will be keen to put in place an interim agreement to operate until the FTA is nailed down. All of which is fine and dandy, but it's conditional on the UK agreeing to the EU position on money, citizens, border. And, having just paid a horrible price for not agreeing to that position, it will be hard for the UK to turn around and immediately agree to it. That would mean they had paid a horrible price for no reason at all, which is a very, very hard thing to face up to.

Zubeneschamali · 11-07-2019 10:03AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I agree but will the EU see it to be in its members interests? Will it be seen to encourage others to seek independence? The Catalans spring to mind.

Independence from a ex-member country that left? I can't see that being a worrying precedent, especially after everyone sees what happens to England.

Peregrinus · 11-07-2019 10:07AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it would be very different. Scotland is a nation of EU citizens who were dragged out of the EU by England against their express will.

Once independent, I think a strong case can be made for fast-tracking their re-entry and skipping the usual 3rd country process. East Germany got a pass, NI has been guaranteed a pass in advance if they vote for a United Ireland.

Scotland should get help, not obstacles.

East Germany did not join, and NI will not join, as member states in their own right. Scotland will want to do that. Big difference.

Yes, the EU will be keen to support and advance the membership of Scotland. But (a) it won't do anything about that until Scotland is, or is agreed to be about to become, independent. They will do nothing that could be made to look like them encouraging or facilitating the break-up of the UK; they will wait until that happens without any intervention by them. And (b) there's only so far they will compromise on the conditions for membership, which aren't arbitrary but are there for good reasons.

Scotland, if independent, is very well-positioned to become a member state, and will certainly get every encouragement and assistance. But it won't be a shoe-in.

Peregrinus · 11-07-2019 10:09AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I agree but will the EU see it to be in its members interests? Will it be seen to encourage others to seek independence? The Catalans spring to mind.

The EU won't encourage Scotland to seek independence but, once it's independent, will certainly encourage it to pursue EU membership.

Spain, if I'm not mistaken, has already said that it would not oppose or veto a membership application from an independent Scotland.

Professor Moriarty · 11-07-2019 10:11AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Independence from a ex-member country that left? I can't see that being a worrying precedent, especially after everyone sees what happens to England.

Fair point.

FrancieBrady · 11-07-2019 10:17AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The EU won't encourage Scotland to seek independence but, once it's independent, will certainly encourage it to pursue EU membership.

Spain, if I'm not mistaken, has already said that it would not oppose or veto a membership application from an independent Scotland.

To be precise, Rahoy said that there is no legal precedent for them to oppose a Scottish application as Scotland would be legally leaving the UK..
There is in the case of Catalonia for Madrid as they would see independence there as illegal.

Zubeneschamali · 11-07-2019 10:17AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

having just paid a horrible price for not agreeing to that position, it will be hard for the UK to turn around and immediately agree to it. That would mean they had paid a horrible price for no reason at all, which is a very, very hard thing to face up to.

Agreed, which is why we may have to wait for them to realize that the horrible price is not a once-off payment - things are going to continue to be horribly expensive in economic terms until they get over it and sign.

It might take as long as 6 months.

Zubeneschamali · 11-07-2019 10:21AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Yes, the EU will be keen to support and advance the membership of Scotland. But (a) it won't do anything about that until Scotland is, or is agreed to be about to become, independent. They will do nothing that could be made to look like them encouraging or facilitating the break-up of the UK;

Disagree - if the UK crashes out, the gloves come off. England will have just dragged 5 million Scottish EU citizens out against their will through nationalist hubris and diplomatic incompetence, I see no reason why the EU should give two figs for their national integrity.

Make the Scots an offer on Brexit Day + 1.

Dytalus · 11-07-2019 10:22AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No, it would be very different. Scotland is a nation of EU citizens who were dragged out of the EU by England against their express will.

Once independent, I think a strong case can be made for fast-tracking their re-entry and skipping the usual 3rd country process. East Germany got a pass, NI has been guaranteed a pass in advance if they vote for a United Ireland.

Scotland should get help, not obstacles.

I'm not saying they should get obstacles, but it's also not in the EU's interests to bend the rules too much. If Scotland devolves post-Brexit+Independence into a basket case economically, inviting into the EU is going to do incredible harm to the other Member States. As we've seen with the Brexit negotiations, the EU's loyalty lies (rightfully) with its Members - which Scotland would not be.

NI joining Ireland would not be a wholly independent nation seeking independent membership. Neither was East Germany rejoining West Germany. Scotland would be different to these and more similar to Turkey (or any other third country) joining. The EU would almost certainly take past friendship into account, and there'd be a push from the Parliament and Council(s) to help Scotland join. But we can't allow Scotland to join until:

It asks to, and
It's ready

We can do much to help Scotland (as I mentioned, FTA's to facilitate investment and possibly rerouting trade routes as is happening now with Ireland to reduce the need for trade to pass through England), but we can't ignore our own rules. As Brexit has shown, the EU is a rules based organisation - it cannot afford to break any of them or vultures will seek to take advantage of the cracks and bring it down.

We also cannot announce what plans they may have to facilitate Scotland's membership through trade and investment while it's still a member of the UK, because good lord the optics on that would be horrific. We'd have to wait until IndyRef2, or the international community would scream bloody murder.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Disagree - if the UK crashes out, the gloves come off. England will have just dragged 5 million Scottish EU citizens out against their will through nationalist hubris and diplomatic incompetence, I see no reason why the EU should give two figs for their national integrity.

Make the Scots an offer on Brexit Day + 1.

From a personal standpoint I also don't give two hoots about the UK governments opinion. They've failed their citizens in both Scotland and NI in multiple aspects. But could you imagine the international furor if we were seen to be courting the break up of the UK before Scotland made any move itself? Every single nation from China to Russia to America to Middle-Earth would view the EU as aggressively undermining a sovereign nation and use it against us.

And they'd be right too, even if we made the proposal out of genuine concern for the people of Scotland. We'd still be effectively stoking the collapse of a sovereign nation.

Peregrinus · 11-07-2019 10:23AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Agreed, which is why we may have to wait for them to realize that the horrible price is not a once-off payment - things are going to continue to be horribly expensive in economic terms until they get over it and sign.

It might take as long as 6 months.

It could take much longer, and we might have to do quite a bit of lateral thinking to fashion a fig-leaf with which to hide their climbdown.

It's important not to approach this on the basis that we will grind them beneath our chariot wheels until we hear the lamentations of their women. That would be emotionally satisfying and entirely understandable, but it's probably not the best way to get to where we need to be.

Peregrinus · 11-07-2019 10:25AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Disagree - if the UK crashes out, the gloves come off. England will have just dragged 5 million Scottish EU citizens out against their will through nationalist hubris and diplomatic incompetence, I see no reason why the EU should give two figs for their national integrity.

Make the Scots an offer on Brexit Day + 1.

The EU absolutely will not do that. Won't consider it for an instant.

J Mysterio · 11-07-2019 10:26AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Disagree - if the UK crashes out, the gloves come off. England will have just dragged 5 million Scottish EU citizens out against their will through nationalist hubris and diplomatic incompetence, I see no reason why the EU should give two figs for their national integrity.

Make the Scots an offer on Brexit Day + 1.

Eh... I think they need to be an independent nation first..

Enzokk · 11-07-2019 10:28AM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1149026739781287937

Its the same stuff, everyday and night.

This is what I have thought would happen if if even make whispers of a border or plans, it will be seized on by Brexiteers and twisted to suit their needs. Just like the GATT Article 24 is twisted and used when we know it cannot be used, the lie will spread faster than the facts.

bob mcbob · 11-07-2019 10:35AM

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Rumours in Scotland that a poll done for the UK Govt about Scottish Independence has panicked the UK Govt hence Mays rushed visit to Scotland last week attack the SNP. I have spoken to quite a few people in work who did not vote or voted no in the last independence referendum who are dismayed at what is going on and have stated they will vote Yes next time (if the UK Govt allow it)

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1146317217421832192

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1148937413567188992

https://twitter.com/heraldscotland/status/1149030314003566593

My brother in law was incredibly anti independence and SNP with not a good word to say about either. Obviously he voted no.

He stunned me last week when he would now vote SNP with the implication he also would vote yes.

Professor Moriarty · 11-07-2019 10:36AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

Only 32% favour a no-deal Brexit but the remaining 68% do not necessarily favour a deal; they are split between those who favour a deal, those who favour remain and the don't-knows.

The ground shifts after Brexit; a WA is no longer possible, obviously. Whether people will favour a post-Brexit deal will depend on the terms of the deal, and they have yet to be negotiated. Remain is also not an option, obviously, and I wouldn't assume that Remainers will seamlessly become Rejoiners, especially as "Rejoin!" will be seen as a long-term political project, not an immediately-available option.

So I think things will be quite up in the air for a time after Brexit, and it would be a foolish pundit who would nail his colours to the mast of any very specific prediction about how things will turn out.

The mainstream Brexiter position is that the UK will wish to move on to negotiating an FTA with the EU. Delusional bolt-ons to this central idea are (a) the EU will miraculously reassess its priorities and decide that it doesn't need a border guarantee after all; (b) the EU will need this FTA more than the UK does; and (c) this will be quick and easy. But when you dismiss this arrant nonsense the core idea - that the next step is for the UK to seek an EU FTA - is basically correct.

But, even if the UK immediately agree to the EU position on financial settlement, citizens rights, no-hard-border, an FTA is going to take some time to negotiate. So Ireland, and hopefully the EU, will be keen to put in place an interim agreement to operate until the FTA is nailed down. All of which is fine and dandy, but it's conditional on the UK agreeing to the EU position on money, citizens, border. And, having just paid a horrible price for not agreeing to that position, it will be hard for the UK to turn around and immediately agree to it. That would mean they had paid a horrible price for no reason at all, which is a very, very hard thing to face up to.

Well, this is a poll with the Don't Knows (4%) removed:

The UK leaving the EU without a deal: 28%
The UK leaving the EU with a different deal from the one Theresa May has negotiated: 16%
The UK leaving the EU with the deal negotiated by Theresa May: 8%
The UK remaining in the EU: 48%

I have to say, these polls give me some crumbs of comfort.

To your points. If the UK crashes out Oct 31st, all bets are off. I think you're right in that there will be no immediate push to rejoin. Probably,there will political and economic chaos for perhaps 3-10 weeks while the UK scrambles to get some sort of meaningful temporary arrangement/lifeline from the EU. Of course this won't be pleasant for Ireland either.

It's then that the EU will have to play its cards carefully. If they ease the pressure on the UK too much then the spin will be that they have been "faced down" by Johnson and will be seen to be weak. If the EU play hardball, it might not be in its economic or political interests to see a close neighbour and major trading partner collapse. Personalyy, I'd be in favour of hardball.

In that scenario, the HoC will bring the government down. There is no way the Tories will survive a vote of no confidence after a chaotic crash out. Subsequently, I would love to see Johnson and Farage on TV trying to peddle the 2016 lies again and trying to blame the EU yet again. At the very least, it will galvanise the majority who are in favour of Remain or a deal.

Zubeneschamali · 11-07-2019 10:43AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's important not to approach this on the basis that we will grind them beneath our chariot wheels until we hear the lamentations of their women. That would be emotionally satisfying and entirely understandable, but it's probably not the best way to get to where we need to be.

I don't think we should make it a precondition that Boris and Farage wear sackcloth and pour ashes on their heads. I just think we should make it clear that we meant what we said in talks, and the terms of the WA as negotiated will apply to any future agreement.

If that is hard for the PM of the day to agree, not to worry, there will be a new PM along soon. Absolutely no way should the EU reward this sort of bad faith in negotiations in the slightest.

Stop moaning ffs · 11-07-2019 10:51AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't think we should make it a precondition that Boris and Farage wear sackcloth and pour ashes on their heads. I just think we should make it clear that we meant what we said in talks, and the terms of the WA as negotiated will apply to any future agreement.

If that is hard for the PM of the day to agree, not to worry, there will be a new PM along soon. Absolutely no way should the EU reward this sort of bad faith in negotiations in the slightest.

They’ve stated exactly that on several levels and mediums. Any new PM will be dealing with the same deal on the table that May agreed to.
They don’t seem to be listening but they’ll soon have to.
The wording of the climbdown ‘how we have to accept this deal’ from Johnson is all that remains to be heard.

reslfj · 11-07-2019 10:52AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I must admit that if I were the EUs trade negotiator, I would copy those three paragraphs and tell the UK side that those are a prerequisite for opening talks, that they will be the first three paragraphs of any deal that is agreed with the UK, ever.

Any Free Trade agreed will only begin after Westminster passes those 3 items into law and we see them implementing the backstop on the ground, guaranteeing EU citizens rights and they start paying what they owe.

Free trade will be suspended the day they break any of those conditions.

The EU27 has repeatedly told the UK that the WA text will not change post Brexit except the text on transition periods will be deleted. The ratification of the WA text will be an absolute prerequisite for any EU27 talks with the UK on trade and on non trade.

It may well be that the WA text is put into another form, but the content will not change at all. In addition to the three main points - people, pay and the backstop - there are a few other points in the WA text that will also remain in the text - e.g. Geographical Indications.

After Brexit the EU27 will have plenty of time to wait, while the UK will be in a state of total urgency.

Lars

Zubeneschamali · 11-07-2019 10:53AM

J Mysterio wrote: »

Eh... I think they need to be an independent nation first..

Why? Just say this:

It is with great regret that we acknowledge the fact that the UK left the Union yesterday. We would like to extend an invitation to all UK citizens to rejoin the EU in future for the benefit of all.

For citizens in Northern Ireland in particular, we have already agreed that Irish Unification would automatically mean you are EU citizens again. We invite citizens of the rest of the United Kingdom to apply rejoin also, whatever other ways the constitutional make up of the current UK may evolve, and we undertake to smooth that process as much as possible.

volchitsa · 11-07-2019 11:00AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why? Just say this:

It is with great regret that we acknowledge the fact that the UK left the Union yesterday. We would like to extend an invitation to all UK citizens to rejoin the EU in future for the benefit of all.

For citizens in Northern Ireland in particular, we have already agreed that Irish Unification would automatically mean you are EU citizens again. We invite citizens of the rest of the United Kingdom to apply rejoin also, whatever other ways the constitutional make up of the current UK may evolve, and we undertake to smooth that process as much as possible.

Much as I wish that could happen, with that wording, London could potentially secede and ask to join the EU. Which Barcelona would be very interested to see.

J Mysterio · 11-07-2019 11:00AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why? Just say this:

It is with great regret that we acknowledge the fact that the UK left the Union yesterday. We would like to extend an invitation to all UK citizens to rejoin the EU in future for the benefit of all.

For citizens in Northern Ireland in particular, we have already agreed that Irish Unification would automatically mean you are EU citizens again. We invite citizens of the rest of the United Kingdom to apply rejoin also, whatever other ways the constitutional make up of the current UK may evolve, and we undertake to smooth that process as much as possible.

Not appropriate.

If/ once the UK leave, its constituent countries can make their own minds up and ask to rejoin the EU. The party leaders of these countries can surely ask the EU about the practical steps that might be needed in order to join as an independent country, but no way should the EU formally suggest to these countries that they should seek independence.

First Up · 11-07-2019 11:14AM

If an independent Scotland was joining the EU, the same issues about protecting the Single Market and the EU frontier would arise as with Northern Ireland. Hadrian's Wall no longer exists and I can't see them rebuilding it.

Wouldn't it be fun with Scotland and Ireland in the EU and Northern Ireland and England/Wales outside it. That would be a logistical as well as a cultural challenge.

robinph · 11-07-2019 11:15AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why? Just say this:

It is with great regret that we acknowledge the fact that the UK left the Union yesterday. We would like to extend an invitation to all UK citizens to rejoin the EU in future for the benefit of all.

For citizens in Northern Ireland in particular, we have already agreed that Irish Unification would automatically mean you are EU citizens again. We invite citizens of the rest of the United Kingdom to apply rejoin also, whatever other ways the constitutional make up of the current UK may evolve, and we undertake to smooth that process as much as possible.

That is precisely what cannot be said. That is a request from the EU for the UK to break up and they are never, ever going to say that.

The most they will say is the UK is our friend and we look forward to working with them in the future.

robinph · 11-07-2019 11:20AM

First Up wrote: »

If an independent Scotland was joining the EU, the same issues about protecting the Single Market and the EU frontier would arise as with Northern Ireland. Hadrian's Wall no longer exists and I can't see them rebuilding it.

Far fewer border crossing to deal with, and way less people getting their nickers in a twist about what colour flag or anthem they then have imposed on them.

Bigger issue would be figuring out the definition of Scottish as far as who gets a passport or not.

A Dub in Glasgo · 11-07-2019 11:24AM

The EU will not say anything unless asked by the UK or by an independent Scotland. One of the unionist arguments in Scotland is that Scotland will not be able to re-join the EU becasue various countries in the EU will veto it. The Scottish Government has previously asked the EU for clarification and the EU has refused to deal with the SG as they deal with the UK Government. The SG asked the UK Government to ask the EU for clarification, the UK Government refused to do this

sink · 11-07-2019 11:26AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

So Ireland, and hopefully the EU, will be keen to put in place an interim agreement to operate until the FTA is nailed down. All of which is fine and dandy, but it's conditional on the UK agreeing to the EU position on money, citizens, border. And, having just paid a horrible price for not agreeing to that position, it will be hard for the UK to turn around and immediately agree to it. That would mean they had paid a horrible price for no reason at all, which is a very, very hard thing to face up to.

You're assuming that the EU will be negotiating with the same Government. If no deal Brexit happens, I can't see a Boris Johnson led government lasting a fortnight, which then will precipitate a general election. The Conservatives will be fighting an election having just lost a vote of confidence following a catastrophic no-deal exit. Their best polling data only gives them 30% at the moment, I imagine that will slide even more in such a scenario as both the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems gnaw at them from both sides. What government takes shape after the election is anyone's guess, but the likelihood of a government with Conservative majority or DUP support seems remote. Then the arithmetic on the NI backstop changes dramatically.

S.M.B. · 11-07-2019 11:32AM

Dublin must be open to a last-minute compromise on backstop

The admission by the Government that checks of some kind on cross-border trade will be necessary in a no-deal Brexit is a belated admission of reality. It was camouflaged up to now behind the mantra of a “no hard border” in any circumstances but one of the basic requirements of EU membership has finally been acknowledged.

While the Government should be able to deliver on its pledge not to rebuild infrastructure on the border, some form of checks, particularly for animal and food imports, will be required in the Republic to preserve the EU single market.

A feature of the whole Brexit debacle is the way political rhetoric has propelled all of the main actors into adopting positions that are almost certain to have the opposite effect to the one pursued. The most obvious is the claim by Brexiteers that the UK will be better off outside the EU when there is little doubt that it will cause economic chaos and reduce the living standards of ordinary British people. The impact is likely to be particularly harsh if the country departs without a deal.

The other side of that coin is that the forces in the UK fighting to remain in the EU who ensured the defeat of Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement for a managed departure have brought about a situation in which a chaotic no deal exit is a real possibility.

The big question now is whether all of the various forces are committed to plans of action from which they cannot pull back
Then there is the intense opposition of the Democratic Unionist Party to the Border backstop which the party claims will undermine the union with Britain. By virulently opposing the sensible withdrawal agreement negotiated by May the party has put the union in peril.

The party’s outright rejection of the initial offer of a special arrangement whereby Northern Ireland could avail of the benefits of EU membership while remaining part of the UK made no sense, particularly as the majority of people in the North voted to remain. Having rejected the best of both worlds the DUP now finds itself facing the worst possible outcome – the break up of the UK.

Finally the Irish Government, with the backing of all the main parties in the Dáil, has clung doggedly to the backstop designed to prevent the return of a hard border on the island. The net result of that stance could be the imposition of the kind of border controls the backstop is supposed to prevent.

Decent bit of commentary from the Irish Times today.

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/dublin-must-be-open-to-a-last-minute-compromise-on-backstop-1.3952922#.XSbwEwQPLFc.twitter

First Up · 11-07-2019 11:37AM

robinph wrote:

Far fewer border crossing to deal with, and way less people getting their nickers in a twist about what colour flag or anthem they then have imposed on them.

And its much shorter but it would still beva border.

robinph wrote:

Bigger issue would be figuring out the definition of Scottish as far as who gets a passport or not.

Yes, that would be great fun.

Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

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