Tesla Talk

TSLA is on a bit of a rally this week. I thought the stock price was right on Tuesday after the slide to $180ish and bought first time ever some shares. The stock has gained about 15 percent since then so looks like it was a good call. Should have bought more.

Apparently the long waited (in US) pickup truck will be revealed at the end of the month and the target price is $49k for a typical spec and less for a bare bones model.

sk8board wrote: »

The shares were up on Q2 deliveries hitting their target and slightly better than expected model 3 sales in the US (66,000).
The truck hype train is just that, hype. Tesla seem to announce another car every time the shares are tanking (new Model S in September?), but hype only provides a dead cat bounce until the next financials are published.
Deliveries are all that matters - to my mind the most critical issue is unit price. They are running out of fanboys and early adopters to sell to, hence the recent price drops and opening in new markets.

I see in Ireland a drop of over 50% in sales on last year. Aware that there will be some - a couple of hundred maybe? that will deliver for the new model later in the year, but once those are done who is left to buy?

Tuned in via YouTube and it was pretty interesting investor event last night. Self driving feature complete sometime in 2019(*) and launching fleetwide "in 2020(*)" for any cars with AP computer version 3 which is 21 times faster than the currently shipping Nvidia AP2 computer. Cars made after November 2016 are all compatible with AP3 computer so Tesla will potentially have a robotaxi fleet of 1 million cars by that time. Legislation is lagging behind so needs to be addressed first. Musk drives the latest development versions of full self drive and summon and admitted that "they are not ready for deployment quite yet" but that they operate on totally different level from the competition and once the product is ready it will be able drive on any road (or other drivable surfaces) anywhere on earth.

A not so subtle dig to Audi SUV's efficiency. "Oh E-tron... etron, if you speak French you get it". And that 2012 Model S 85 has still longer range than the next best competitor in 2019.

Lots of questions from the investors about negative publicity and Elon seemed a bit lost on how to deal with it. Bloomberg was mentioned, i.e. Musk should have a chat with him. Also somebody from the odeon suggested a Tesla myth rebuttal page which was received well. Marketing is pointless as it's wasting money and Tesla sells any vehicles they can manufacture regardless. The same reason was given about moving to Indian market: too much bureaucracy for what it's worth. Can't currently make enough cars to serve the other markets.

More global factories a key to cater for the demand and to shorten the time from manufacture to money in due to long delivery times to international markets as well as to combat import duties and taxes. Europe site will be next but location is not selected yet. He hinted something about Germany I think. It's balancing act as expanding too rapidly will lead the company running out of money but they will have to expand rapidly enough to cater for the global markets. The Chinese GF building itself has now been completed and the process installation is on the way.

Tesla won't be able launch more models before manufacturing is sorted out. Both battery cell and vehicle/battery pack capacity needed to launch both Model Y and the Semi. Pickup Truck will be revealed by the end of the summer and can do anyting than a F150 can do but better. Model Y according to Musk has market potential of 290% over the Model 3 which sounds about right. There are lots of customers who need more seats or a hatchback for a dog etc. etc. He said that they have a conservative estimation of Model Y volume production by end of 2020 but likely before that sometime in next summer.

Musk seem to still be burning the candle from both ends. The delivery of facts and projection was typical Musk genius style. Love or loathe. I have been a fan since Model X lauch event.

(*) Elon time so there could be a delay.

jusmeig wrote: »

In relation to GF China, finished means just the very small portion they are using for 3 production? They surely have not build that big yoke from the render with the tapered corners in 6 months?

Musk mentioned that the factory building itself has been completed and that it has a yearly capacity of half a million cars or a bit more which would be currently 23% (I think that was the number) of the total Chinese BEV market. One of the questions was that will that be enough for China and the answer was that Tesla may have to build another factory in some other place than Shanghai in China due to the logistics (again). Nothing was mentioned about further building work needed in Shanghai, just the assembly lines under construction now.

Model 3 will be initial product and as communicated before I suspect the cars will be shipped not only to China but other regions too until the local giga factories have been built to Europe and other locations. And moving lots of Model 3 production in China will free space in Fremont for production of new cars like the Model Y.

Mike9832 wrote: »

Could they do European production in China?

Surely cheaper than doing it in the US?

Makes sense to ship them from the location that has lowest import duties. Not sure how US/China compare in that respect but the production cost will be somewhat cheaper in Shanghai both due to cheaper labour and more optimised production due to learnings from US factories.