Why would you vote SF?

Fionn1952 · 24-04-2019 12:23PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am pretty positive it would be defeated very heavily in Connacht, Munster and Mid/South Leinster. Donegal would finally get to say Yes
I think people down south would simply not want to take on the historic problems and hatreds in NI.

Apart from your own opinions, have you seen anything to suggest that? I don't think I've ever seen a single poll anywhere near those numbers. Like I said, I don't think it's a sure thing it would pass, but those numbers just don't seem logical at all.

TCM · 24-04-2019 12:37PM

Can I ask the question Why would you not vote for SF.

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 12:48PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am pretty positive it would be defeated very heavily in Connacht, Munster and Mid/South Leinster. Donegal would finally get to say Yes
I think people down south would simply not want to take on the historic problems and hatreds in NI.

Do you have anything to back this up?

Not saying you are wrong by the way, just interested to see where you have got your opinion from. Anything I have heard/experienced has pointed to the total opposite.

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 12:51PM

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Apart from your own opinions, have you seen anything to suggest that? I don't think I've ever seen a single poll anywhere near those numbers. Like I said, I don't think it's a sure thing it would pass, but those numbers just don't seem logical at all.

Were there polls on it? I have never seen any. My numbers are pure guesswork but I have never met anyone in ROI that wanted a United Ireland. They cant even open Storment ffs. They are just trouble.

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 12:53PM

TCM wrote: »

Can I ask the question Why would you not vote for SF.

One word for me....dishonesty. Since I reached the age of reason in mid 1970s, my perception of SF is utter dishonesty.

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 12:58PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Were there polls on it? I have never seen any. My numbers are pure guesswork but I have never met anyone in ROI that wanted a United Ireland. They cant even open Storment ffs. They are just trouble.

I have not met anyone in ROI who doesn't want a UI.

I'm sure there are loads (a rough guess of between 15-25% maybe). A recent poll found Connacht the province with the strongest support of a UI (think it was 70%).

Obviously polls are to be taken with a pinch of salt, but will it be that wrong?

Found the poll from last week.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/62-in-republic-want-irish-unity-in-brexit-aftermath-says-poll-38014469.html

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 01:04PM

The_Fitz wrote: »

I have not met anyone in ROI who doesn't want a UI.

I'm sure there are loads (a rough guess of between 15-25% maybe). A recent poll found Connacht the province with the strongest support of a UI (think it was 70%).

Obviously polls are to be taken with a pinch of salt, but will it be that wrong?

Found the poll from last week.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/62-in-republic-want-irish-unity-in-brexit-aftermath-says-poll-38014469.html

Very surprised by that. There is the Brexit factor but 1000 is a small sample. The devil is in the detail. I would like to see a larger poll by RedC or similar. I wonder would FG/FF/Lab really support it with enthusiasm. Imagine the likes of Arlene in Leinster House...

TCM · 24-04-2019 01:06PM

Snow Garden wrote:

One word for me....dishonesty. Since I reached the age of reason in mid 1970s, my perception of SF is utter dishonesty.

Would SF be anymore dishonest that FF. I think not.

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 01:11PM

TCM wrote: »

Would SF be anymore dishonest that FF. I think not.

Oh I think SF would certainly shade that one. Gerry would shade Bertie but not by much!

Charles Babbage · 24-04-2019 01:11PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

But wouldn't a United Ireland require a referendum in the republic? I think it would be defeated very heavily. 70/30.
Let Britain bankroll the craziness up there for another few decades.

Nonsense. Every opinion poll shows a majority in favour of a United Ireland and while people would gripe about it before and afterwards, the German example shows that national sentiment will greatly increase at the time.

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 01:12PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Very surprised by that. There is the Brexit factor but 1000 is a small sample. The devil is in the detail. I would like to see a larger poll by RedC or similar. I wonder would FG/FG/Lab really support it with enthusiasm. Imagine the likes of Arlene in Leinster House...

Would be amazing to see her there

I think they would, could you think of a scenario when FF or FG actively campaign against a UI?

Connacht in my experience would be one of the strongest supporters of reunification. Based on the square root of f**k all (a few polls and experiences), I'd say 70/30 in favour in the south.

The north now, who knows. You probably have that core 30% in favour. The middle classes who would see a potential increase in standard of living could go anywhere.

Never did I imagine this level of debate though.

Fionn1952 · 24-04-2019 01:17PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Were there polls on it? I have never seen any. My numbers are pure guesswork but I have never met anyone in ROI that wanted a United Ireland. They cant even open Storment ffs. They are just trouble.

Whether ignorance, dishonesty or hyperbole, if this is the standard of discussion, I'm out.

Enjoy

BonnieSituation · 24-04-2019 01:20PM

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Whether ignorance, dishonesty or hyperbole, if this is the standard of discussion, I'm out.

Enjoy

It's column a b and c i would say. The standard of discussion on the north since a certain thread was closed is absolutely abysmal.

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 01:45PM

The_Fitz wrote: »

Would be amazing to see her there

I think they would, could you think of a scenario when FF or FG actively campaign against a UI?

Connacht in my experience would be one of the strongest supporters of reunification. Based on the square root of f**k all (a few polls and experiences), I'd say 70/30 in favour in the south.

The north now, who knows. You probably have that core 30% in favour. The middle classes who would see a potential increase in standard of living could go anywhere.

Never did I imagine this level of debate though.

I am a Galway man and I reckon there would be utter apathy here around a United Ireland referendum. People just don't seem to care either way. Brexit has brought the topic up for the first time in any serious way.

I don't think FF/FG would actively campaign against but they mightn't push too strong for it either. They would be wary about how well SF might do out of it.

There would be serious concern on the economic side. The UK plough a lot of money into NI and they have a very large % of the workforce in the public service. It would be interesting to see how that would be managed.

Northern Ireland receives more public money and generates less tax revenue per head than any other part of the UK.

The region was £9bn in the red, amounting to £5,052 per person, for the year 2008/09, according to figures just released by the Northern Ireland Executive.
That's almost three times the UK average of £1,785.

Even Scotland, which is often cited as a big beneficiary of public funds, fares much better than Northern Ireland.

There, the comparable figure is £2,000 less per person than in Northern Ireland.

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 01:49PM

How things have changed since 2013

Poll: Just 3.8% want a united Ireland

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/poll-just-3-8-want-a-united-ireland-29584149.html

Poll: Just 3.8% want a united Ireland

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/poll-just-3-8-want-a-united-ireland-29584149.html

Damn statistics!

They are still saying No too up North...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_Polling_on_Irish_Unification

(45% No to 32% Yes in latest Ipsos poll)

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 01:55PM

The 2015 Behaviour & Attitudes poll in ROI is a classic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_Polling_on_Irish_Unification

Q1. In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should Unify with the rest of Ireland? 36% Yes

Q2. Would you like to see a united Ireland in your lifetime? 66% Yes

Q3. Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant You would have to pay more tax? 31%

As I said before, the devil is in the detail. It's the economy stupid.

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 02:00PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

I am a Galway man and I reckon there would be utter apathy here around a United Ireland referendum. People just don't seem to care either way. Brexit has brought the topic up for the first time in any serious way.

I don't think FF/FG would actively campaign against but they mightn't push too strong for it either. They would be wary about how well SF might do out of it.

There would be serious concern on the economic side. The UK plough a lot of money into NI and they have a very large % of the workforce in the public service. It would be interesting to see how that would be managed.

Maybe apathy, but do you think they would reject it? I know a lot of people in Galway, from city to country and all would be fervently in favour.

Would SF do all that well once a UI has been achieved? Once the people in the north have viable alternatives I would expect votes to go all over the shop.

Change needs to happen, the north has been left behind and left to rot. Standard of living is vastly below the south. Maybe it's time for the south to help their fellow countrymen to advance and enjoy a similar standard of living? Surely it can only benefit the island as a whole?

The main thing to be taken from the ongoing debate is that preparation needs to happen and it needs to happen right now. The Irish government needs to plan what would happen if that 51/49 result came in. Unionists need to be part of the preparation as well.

James Brown · 24-04-2019 02:09PM

To quote Enda Kenny's Fine Gael, 'We need change the way we do business'. And both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have shown they are unwilling to. We need to look at everything we do. Trying to service growing crises to placate the floating voters while carrying on with the same way we do business has never worked. If not SF we in the least need a new approach and FF/FG isn't it.

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 02:09PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

The 2015 Behaviour & Attitudes poll in ROI is a classic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Opinion_Polling_on_Irish_Unification

Q1. In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should Unify with the rest of Ireland? 36% Yes

Q2. Would you like to see a united Ireland in your lifetime? 66% Yes

Q3. Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant You would have to pay more tax? 31%

As I said before, the devil is in the detail. It's the economy stupid.

Only 44% said they would reject it, so both in the minority (obviously one more so than the other).

Would you reject a UI for a short term loss leading to a long term gain?

Snow Garden · 24-04-2019 02:13PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

If not SF we in the least need a new approach and FF/FG isn't it.

My problem is that I cannot vote for SF, FF, FG or Labour. In one way I would like to see SF in power (via coalition) just to expose their policies especially the economic ones. Right now I am stuck with voting for Independents, Green or SDs. Many floating voters are crying out for a change.

ancapailldorcha · 24-04-2019 02:19PM

Mod: The topic of this thread is Sinn Fein. If it's going to degenerate into another generic NI thread it will be closed.

touts · 24-04-2019 02:34PM

The_Fitz wrote: »

I have not met anyone in ROI who doesn't want a UI.

I'm sure there are loads (a rough guess of between 15-25% maybe). A recent poll found Connacht the province with the strongest support of a UI (think it was 70%).

Obviously polls are to be taken with a pinch of salt, but will it be that wrong?

Found the poll from last week.

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/62-in-republic-want-irish-unity-in-brexit-aftermath-says-poll-38014469.html

Depends on your circle of friends I suppose. I would say 80%+ of the people I know would vote against a United Ireland. It's not that they wouldn't want a United Ireland in theory it's just they don't believe we can remotely afford to pump money into the North like the UK do and also that there is likely to be a violent reaction from a sizable proportion of the Unionist community. If voters in the south are given a choice on a United Ireland then I think it will be soundly defeated which is why Sinn Fein are always only talking about a vote in the North and never mention an all island vote.

eagle eye · 24-04-2019 02:49PM

Sinn Fein will grow as a party now that Adams is gone. I know many people who said they would never vote Sinn Fein so long as he was involved. Now they might give SF their no.1 but if they give them a 2 or 3 it could make a huge difference.

I will never vote for them. I'm looking for a new party to vote for, slightly right of centre.

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 02:50PM

touts wrote: »

Depends on your circle of friends I suppose. I would say 80%+ of the people I know would vote against a United Ireland. It's not that they wouldn't want a United Ireland in theory it's just they don't believe we can remotely afford to pump money into the North like the UK do and also that there is likely to be a violent reaction from a sizable proportion of the Unionist community. If voters in the south are given a choice on a United Ireland then I think it will be soundly defeated which is why Sinn Fein are always only talking about a vote in the North and never mention an all island vote.

I'm glad I'm not in your circle

SF actively campaigned for one island one vote did they not? By signing up to the GFA this ended that. They gave that up and gave into British demands for the principle of consent in a jurisdiction that they refused to recognise nor consented to its legitimacy. There are many things to beat SF with, but campaigning for the vote in the north is not one of them.

What do you measure soundly beaten as, hit me with a few numbers.

derfderf · 24-04-2019 02:54PM

Sin Fein always strike me as sneaky opportunists. They're playing Brexit well, and claim to want to represent the majority in NI that voted remain.
It never seems to be brought up that they campaigned for a no vote on all EU treaties. That I can recall anyway (Maastricht, Nice, and Lisbon).

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 03:04PM

derfderf wrote: »

Sin Fein always strike me as sneaky opportunists. They're playing Brexit well, and claim to want to represent the majority in NI that voted remain.
It never seems to be brought up that they campaigned for a no vote on all EU treaties. That I can recall anyway (Maastricht, Nice, and Lisbon).

It's always brought up, where have you been?

SF wouldn't be SF without u-turning all over the shop.

James Brown · 24-04-2019 03:23PM

The_Fitz wrote: »

It's always brought up, where have you been?

SF wouldn't be SF without u-turning all over the shop.

Sounds like any political party to me sadly. TBF, they've stood by more than many others. Also we'll not get a good measure until they get in down south. As for the north, different situation and think they were right to call out DUP corruption even if playing politics it was their duty to do so IMO. Maybe if labour did similar regards Reilly's clinic allocation and the currently under investigation sweet Siteserv deal Labour might still be note worthy.

The_Fitz · 24-04-2019 03:32PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Sounds like any political party to me sadly. TBF, they've stood by more than many others. Also we'll not get a good measure until they get in down south. As for the north, different situation and think they were right to call out DUP corruption even if playing politics it was their duty to do so IMO. Maybe if labour did similar regards Reilly's clinic allocation and the currently under investigation sweet Siteserv deal Labour might still be note worthy.

Of course they were right to call out the DUP. SF supporters overwhelmingly support their actions. It's a case of Stormont being a failed house for the Irish in the north. The picture is bigger now, there might be an end in sight.

The DUP has shown nothing but contempt to the Irish nationalist population in the north. All they had to do was give a little and their position might be a little less precarious.

sliabh 1956 · 24-04-2019 03:37PM

I just saw a clip from the funeral of Lyra Mc Kee the look on Mary Lous and Forsters faces during t
he standing ovation sums up their attitude to the political crises in the North the could n't care less as long as they keep their tribes happy. They then felt shamed to join in hypocrites the lot of them . Fair play to the priest for putting it up to them.

James Brown · 24-04-2019 03:50PM

sliabh 1956 wrote: »

I just saw a clip from the funeral of Lyra Mc Kee the look on Mary Lous and Forsters faces during t
he standing ovation sums up their attitude to the political crises in the North the could n't care less as long as they keep their tribes happy. They then felt shamed to join in hypocrites the lot of them . Fair play to the priest for putting it up to them.

Neither the DUP nor Sinn Fein had anything to do with it. Also the current situation with Stormount likely didn't either.

Why would you vote SF?

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