Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

07-04-2019 06:23PM

Anteayer wrote: »

There seems to be an odd lack of any news over the weekend. Given how close the deadlines are, you'd expect a lot more visible activity.

I would imagine (hopefully) a lot of work is being done behind closed doors and on Monday, some progress will be announced.

Enzokk · 07-04-2019 06:24PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

If it wasn't so serious I would have considered that a parody. Compromise? Working with other parties as Brexit wasn't a one party vote? We are more than a week removed from the original exit date and just about 5 days until the next one and she talks about cross party support. A little too tale comes to mind.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Well I will give the benefit of the doubt. Sounds to me like compromise is the way to go, at last. A kick up the backside to the ERG also maybe.

But revoke is the best option of course....:D

Yes, compromise was the way to go 2 years ago. She has spent all that time foregoing compromise and now she is stuck and applying to the people once again when she should be talking to Labour on what deal they will support.

This reminds me of her first speech as PM, where she was going to fight for those that has been left behind and how she is there for all of the people of the UK. Ask the other 65% of NI and the Windrush how that speech has aged.

Looking at the replies she has a problem, nobody is happy. Not Remainers nor Leavers. She has managed to upset both sides and she is sitting there claiming she is doing it for those that are upset with her.

Laois_Man · 07-04-2019 06:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I wonder, as an aside, to what extent Unionist voters will punish the DUP for their egregiously misjudged support for Brexit?

I see this question asked often - But is there evidence to the fact that the DUP's stance has been very out of kilter with their voters' views?

judeboy101 · 07-04-2019 06:35PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

I see this question asked often - But is there evidence to the fact that the DUP's stance has been very out of kilter with their voters' views?

They'll be punished just like Michael Lowry gets punished at every election.

Capt'n Midnight · 07-04-2019 06:41PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

I see this question asked often - But is there evidence to the fact that the DUP's stance has been very out of kilter with their voters' views?

FPTP , the Westminster DUP's heads will get re-elected because it's us or them'ums.

They don't need to worry about what Arlene or anyone else thinks.

Hard Brexit or Customs union or Remain ?
Doesn't matter as long as they seen to be trying to keep NI in the Union.

Professor Moriarty · 07-04-2019 06:43PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

They'll be punished just like Michael Lowry gets punished at every election.

There's still hope. A poll done in November 2018 showed that, since the 2017 GE, the DUP had dropped 5% to 31% while the UUP had gone from 10% to 15%. I assume that they will have dropped further since then.

Capt'n Midnight · 07-04-2019 06:57PM

Old news, December 06, 2018, but I can't think things have gotten better since

May’s Brexit deal leads in just two constituencies as it suffers from being everyone’s second choice

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2018-12-06/First%20preferences%20map%20final-01-01.png

The only case where May's deal wins is against No Deal. And Parliament has ruled out No Deal. ( in Scotland Remain beats May's deal everywhere apart from the oil town of Aberdeen )
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/inlineimage/2018-12-06/Condorcet%20winner%20national%20figures-01-01.png

cml387 · 07-04-2019 07:06PM

I know we have seen a number of "crunch weeks", but next week seems to be the decider (hah!).
Andrea Leadsome seems to have nailed her colours to the mast, saying that leaving the EU next Friday is not so bad and a long delay is unacceptable.

The EU's best offer at this stage is an extension of a year, with the ability to leave if a deal is agreed (and their seems to be no chance of that, since it hasn't happened so far).

So next Friday we see either The End, or half the cabinet resigning.

Sam Russell · 07-04-2019 07:18PM

cml387 wrote: »

I know we have seen a number of "crunch weeks", but next week seems to be the decider (hah!).
Andrea Leadsome seems to have nailed her colours to the mast, saying that leaving the EU next Friday is not so bad and a long delay is unacceptable.

The EU's best offer at this stage is an extension of a year, with the ability to leave if a deal is agreed (and their seems to be no chance of that, since it hasn't happened so far).

So next Friday we see either The End, or half the cabinet resigning.

On that point, someone on the Marr show (cannot remember who) said, if faced with a no extension so crash out on Friday, the HoC would vote to revoke.

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

Mr.Wemmick · 07-04-2019 07:21PM

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

07-04-2019 07:21PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

On that point, someone on the Marr show (cannot remember who) said, if faced with a no extension so crash out on Friday, the HoC would vote to revoke.

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

It's why I put money on revoke months ago.

An Ciarraioch · 07-04-2019 07:22PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

Snap - was just about to post same.

mickoneill31 · 07-04-2019 08:07PM

Dominic Raab posts that Britain is ready for no deal.
He chose a fairly inspiring picture to illustrate his belief.

https://twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1114442590722711552?s=19

WhiteMan32 · 07-04-2019 08:08PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

If Article 50 were to be revoked, would MPs be then voting for (or against) it to be RE-invoked at a later date? Also, during the period in between, might support for a second referendum gain sufficent backing by the more (up to now) reluctant MPs?

branie2 · 07-04-2019 08:11PM

I don't think it can be re-invoked

07-04-2019 08:18PM

branie2 wrote: »

I don't think it can be re-invoked

I see no reason why not, article 50 is still in the EU rule book.
Thre's nothing to stop the UK (or any other nation) from invoking article 50 in the future.

Headshot · 07-04-2019 08:21PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

An interesting read.

It takes a lot for a hardened brexiter to admit their wrong, you have to give him credit for owning up to it but we all knew what Brexit was going to do to their country but they still went ahead with it, that's the frustrating thing for me.

I think when this is all done and dusted with I think Brexit will be good for the UK and the EU.

I would like to think the the UK have finally woken to how important the EU is. How important is to keep your biggest trading partner and friend close by. Yes the EU is not perfect but wouldn't you rather be part of something bigger than yourself and change it from within than being bitterly divided and going down a road you'll never come back from.

The UK electorate can now see the poison and selfishness of some MP's like Boris who wanted the PM job so badly he'd sell his ideals down the river to get it or the DUP selling out the NI people who voted to remain.

The Good Friday Agreement is back in the news and this reminds a new generation of the troubles and how the GFA is vital for UK and Ireland.

From the EU perspective the unity is so strong at the moment and Brexit has brought the EU 27 closer and no one will ever want to leave the EU again after this shambles of Brexit.

It probably also opens eyes in Brussels that there's still a lot of things that need to change in the EU like immigration etc so we can be 100% certain this wont happen again

Capt'n Midnight · 07-04-2019 08:25PM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

If Article 50 were to be revoked, would MPs be then voting for (or against) it to be RE-invoked at a later date? Also, during the period in between, might support for a second referendum gain sufficent backing by the more (up to now) reluctant MPs?

It can only be revoked in good faith, not to reset the clock, not to drop kick the can.

Once revoked it stays revoked for the foreseeable future. This is why the brexiteers are going nuts over it.

briany · 07-04-2019 08:30PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I see no reason why not, article 50 is still in the EU rule book.
Thre's nothing to stop the UK (or any other nation) from invoking article 50 in the future.

How far in the future? The EU would probably like the UK not to take the p*ss on the matter.

cml387 · 07-04-2019 08:33PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

On that point, someone on the Marr show (cannot remember who) said, if faced with a no extension so crash out on Friday, the HoC would vote to revoke.

At the end of the day, revoke will be there and will be preferable to no deal.

That was Rebecca Long-Bailey
Shadow Business Secretary

However I'm not sure that that would fly in the Labour party.

Capt'n Midnight · 07-04-2019 08:36PM

mickoneill31 wrote: »

Dominic Raab posts that Britain is ready for no deal.
He chose a fairly inspiring picture to illustrate his belief.

twitter.com/DominicRaab/status/1114442590722711552?s=19

Lots of valid comments but this one says it all. Remember the "hardship" bit in May's latest twitter

twitter.com/yaxleymellis/status/1114534727543939073

Wasn't Brexit supposed to make things better?

Now you're expecting us to be grateful that it might not be the disaster all the experts say it's going to be.

Joe_ Public · 07-04-2019 08:37PM

cml387 wrote: »

That was Rebecca Long-Bailey
Shadow Business Secretary

However I'm not sure that that would fly in the Labour party.

Might not go well with JC but i think a majority of the labour PP would be ok with it. It was actually a Daily Mail guy during the paper round who spoke about parliament voting to revoke if it came down to a binary choice between that and no deal exit.

Capt'n Midnight · 07-04-2019 08:51PM

Facepalm. If they go ahead it will cost a fortune in lost duty and excise and delays and not to mention the , what was it ? £12Bn a year extra in paperwork.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1114228568719003649

Strazdas · 07-04-2019 08:58PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

In fairness to him, he's admitting many of the things that have gone badly wrong with Brexit and is not in denial like the numerous ideologues.

This type of intervention is very welcome. It can't have been easy for him to write and he deserves credit for it.

McGiver · 07-04-2019 08:58PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote:

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

Sone signs of awakening to reality and tiny amount of self reflection, but still grossly deluded. Long way to go to normality. I couldn't finish reading the article, and was shaking my head constantly. Illusion of grandeur mixed with outright nonsensical ideas bordering on conspiracy theories.

Part of me, therefore, still feels proud of Brexit. Well done Britain for challenging remote oligarchs based in Brussels.

When I see this kind of statement, I am 100% sure I am dealing with either a total ignorant or a deluded person, typically it's a mixture of both. This is a big smoking gun and it's hilarious that this is said by a person identifying himself as a Tory Brexiteer, i.e. those people who are actually colluding with and are paid by actual real oligarchs to push this hard line Brexit ideology in their favour.

How much ignorant, naive or deluded one has to be to see the EU as oligarchs whilst not see the Tory hardliners actually working for oligarchs?

Irish Praetorian · 07-04-2019 09:03PM

Mr.Wemmick wrote: »

And here is another in the media coming to their senses.

It still grates, however.. we had to travel 3 years to get to here.

Peter Oborne writes for the Daily Mail and is former chief political commentator from The Telegraph - he says: "We must swallow our pride and think again."

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/i-was-strong-brexiteer-now-we-must-swallow-our-pride-and-think-again/

It's a rather compelling piece, although it does seem symptomatic of wider problems that the third most popular comment reads along the lines of 'that's what I thought when I voted remain, glad you've caught up with me' - it's precisely the kind of smug comment that makes me want to vote Brexit.

listermint · 07-04-2019 09:19PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

It's a rather compelling piece, although it does seem symptomatic of wider problems that the third most popular comment reads along the lines of 'that's what I thought when I voted remain, glad you've caught up with me' - it's precisely the kind of smug comment that makes me want to vote Brexit.

You want kill off jobs and lower the price of your house because of a smug comment on twitter.

How foolish does that sound to you
.

Irish Praetorian · 07-04-2019 09:26PM

listermint wrote: »

You want kill off jobs and lower the price of your house because of a smug comment on twitter.

How foolish does that sound to you.

To me? Thoroughly foolish. But then that's the problem, I'm not a Brexit voter or even a British citizen with any kind of vote on the matter. But if there's one kernel of information I think we should assimilate from 2016 it's that a significant portion of the population is not won over by logical and factual arguments; people vote tribally, they vote for special issues and they can vote for little more than an emotional story. It's one particular lesson I can't seem to inculcate into my Remain friends living in Britain, who instead seem to retain that attitude of the 'silly proles' and their 'silly Brexit' seemingly unaware that those people have votes. And as I've said before, people don't need an air-tight logical argument when they go to the polls, if you have enough people around to muddy the water and enough emotion, you get Brexit and I fear we may end up with it again.

listermint · 07-04-2019 09:28PM

Irish Praetorian wrote: »

To me? Thoroughly foolish. But then that's the problem, I'm not a Brexit voter or even a British citizen with any kind of vote on the matter. But if there's one kernel of information I think we should assimilate from 2016 it's that a significant portion of the population is not won over by logical and factual arguments; people vote tribally, they vote for special issues and they can vote for little more than an emotional story. It's one particular lesson I can't seem to inculcate into my Remain friends living in Britain, who instead seem to retain that attitude of the 'silly proles' and their 'silly Brexit' seemingly unaware that those people have votes. And as I've said before, people don't need an air-tight logical argument when they go to the polls, if you have enough people around to muddy the water and enough emotion, you get Brexit and I fear we may end up with it again.

Yeah and on the other side you have brexiteers calling ordinary citizen remainers elite and the 1 percent when the facts are at odds to that.

Only way to tackle this is to tackle the sellers of lies Boris mogg and their like. Challenged on everything they say

Sam Russell · 07-04-2019 09:35PM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

If Article 50 were to be revoked, would MPs be then voting for (or against) it to be RE-invoked at a later date? Also, during the period in between, might support for a second referendum gain sufficent backing by the more (up to now) reluctant MPs?

branie2 wrote: »

I don't think it can be re-invoked

Deleted User wrote: »

I see no reason why not, article 50 is still in the EU rule book.
Thre's nothing to stop the UK (or any other nation) from invoking article 50 in the future.

Just to answer this. (In my opinion).

The UK made a great play that the referendum was mandatory (when in fact it was not). The UK Supreme Court found tha Parliament must be consulted re Brexit. The EU are fully behind each state complying with their own constitutional requirements.

So putting all this together, I would think that the ECJ would find that to invoke Art 50 again, having revoked it, the UK would first have to hold a referendum, perhaps with greater oversight to prevent illegal activities by either side. Then there would have to be parliamentary approval for the actual Art 50 notification, perhaps through a full act getting both HoC and HoL approval.

This would be a high bar for Brexiteers to achieve, without bad faith charges being levied.

I think if they do revoke Art 50, it will be a long time before they talk about it again.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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