Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Sam Russell · 07-04-2019 11:01AM

Enzokk wrote: »

So even if they revoke article 50 then this will happen again if things do not change domestically, and I don't see it changing domestically without a dramatic shock to the political system. A no-deal Brexit may just be that. I admit it is an extreme view, but we live in extreme times.

Well, what happened after the Suez Crisis in 1956? Did they return to Egypt with all their warships and demand the canal back? Or did they never speak about it again?

ancapailldorcha · 07-04-2019 11:10AM

Rain Ascending wrote: »

I understand your frustration, but no-deal is not the answer. It's not a shut-down of the arguments -- it immediately amplifies the situation even further. Consider the oft-repeated view within the UK that a no-deal exit is simple, quick and clean. That will clash with reality very quickly and the rhetoric will be ramped up to try protect the underlying cognitive dissonance.

By definition, no deal resolves nothing. The A50 issues of the divorce payments, non-national residents, and the Irish border are all unresolved, and indeed get worse. And then on top of that we add the immediate impact tariffs and regulatory checks messing up thousands of supply chains.

I'll happily put up with chaos in the House of Commons, inflammatory rhetoric from the dimmer sections of UK political parties, multiple late European Council meetings, and misleading newspaper headlines if we can get the UK in a more stable position while protecting the spirit of the GFA and Ireland's position within the EU. Remember that after securing our own critical interests (peace and the economy), we need both the EU and the UK to be secure, stable and successful.

Don't give up to the potential nihilism of no-deal. We can't afford to.

Excellent post.

I'd like to add that the problem of no deal in 2019 is the same as leave in 2016 - neither are defined. They can be portrayed in different, mutually exclusive ways depending on the audience being targeted. No deal is a little less hazy than leave but the difference isn't nearly big enough for too many people to have the scales fall from their eyes. A functioning media might have made the severity of the situation more apparent. Alas.

Enzokk · 07-04-2019 11:14AM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Well, what happened after the Suez Crisis in 1956? Did they return to Egypt with all their warships and demand the canal back? Or did they never speak about it again?

True, although every crises happens in isolation so the causes and the responses will be different. Do we expect if a National Socialist party takes over in Germany now and makes the same rumbles as in the 1930s that the UK will respond in the exact same way? So the reaction to the Suez crises and the aftermath could be a guide, but it could also shape the reply in the present. Will the people accept another humiliation like that again if they are reminded of it in the gutter press?

I am not for one moment hoping for a no-deal outcome. I hope for revocation and if that doesn't happen a deal that mitigates as much of the damage as possible. But I cannot see how this will happen with the current politics in the UK and if you look at the response from about 40-45% of the population, via polls, they still seem to want to leave the EU as they believe it is the cause of all their ills.

WhiteMan32 · 07-04-2019 12:03PM

"Every different Brexit path represents a very different future for our country...........just to be able to tick the box marked 'Brexit' - whatever it means - just so we can say we delivered, I think that would be letting the country down" - Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, speaking on Spohie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

looksee · 07-04-2019 12:15PM

I find myself perversely wishing they would crash out and suffer the consequences (and I say this as a long time absent brit) just to finish the nonsense. I am however absolutely convinced that we would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU. On the other hand they have made such an exhibition of themselves and stirred up so much ill feeling that their reluctant presence in Europe would, for many years, be an irritant and a disturbing influence. It seems we can't win.

There is no doubt that Britain needed a shake up of some sort, it seems that countries who have been powerful eventually become moribund, and if they are not lucky enough to get a change of leadership that takes them forward - probably kicking and screaming - to a new identity, then they in some way inflict damage on themselves. This was a spectacular example of self-harm by Britain, and probably it was inevitable. Certainly we are living in 'interesting times'.

briany · 07-04-2019 01:22PM

looksee wrote: »

I find myself perversely wishing they would crash out and suffer the consequences (and I say this as a long time absent brit) just to finish the nonsense. I am however absolutely convinced that we would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU. On the other hand they have made such an exhibition of themselves and stirred up so much ill feeling that their reluctant presence in Europe would, for many years, be an irritant and a disturbing influence. It seems we can't win.

It's not even really a question. Brexit is a huge economic wildcard for Ireland. We see those in the UK wishing the UK would leave, come what may, as foolhardy, but the same view is hardly an less so when held by those outside the UK, especially in this country.

Capt'n Midnight · 07-04-2019 01:26PM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

"Every different Brexit path represents a very different future for our country...........just to be able to tick the box marked 'Brexit' - whatever it means - just so we can say we delivered, I think that would be letting the country down" - Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, speaking on Spohie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

There's an awful lot of that now. Andrea was on the box earlier. Like a lot of others the mantra is that A brexit MUST be delivered because that was the mandate of the people.

Completely irrational. Ticking that box is all that matters. Less consideration to the type of brexit. Zero consideration to finding out what the public wanted. Zero acknowledgement that they lost a majority in the General Election.

And the kicker is that so far they have failed to tick other boxes in their 2017 Manifesto. This government could rightly get taken apart on their performance on everything else, Brexit is the only thing they might deliver on.

And then all will be forgiven

coastwatch · 07-04-2019 01:47PM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

"Every different Brexit path represents a very different future for our country...........just to be able to tick the box marked 'Brexit' - whatever it means - just so we can say we delivered, I think that would be letting the country down" - Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, speaking on Spohie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

The problem is that that view wasn't explained or widely understood before deciding to hold a simple Remain/ Leave referendum. Now the UK voters dont understand why it's taking so long and there's a clamour for "lets just leave, get it over with, we dont care how much it hurts"

Strazdas · 07-04-2019 01:53PM

looksee wrote: »

I find myself perversely wishing they would crash out and suffer the consequences (and I say this as a long time absent brit) just to finish the nonsense. I am however absolutely convinced that we would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU. On the other hand they have made such an exhibition of themselves and stirred up so much ill feeling that their reluctant presence in Europe would, for many years, be an irritant and a disturbing influence. It seems we can't win.

There is no doubt that Britain needed a shake up of some sort, it seems that countries who have been powerful eventually become moribund, and if they are not lucky enough to get a change of leadership that takes them forward - probably kicking and screaming - to a new identity, then they in some way inflict damage on themselves. This was a spectacular example of self-harm by Britain, and probably it was inevitable. Certainly we are living in 'interesting times'.

It might have been no bad thing had the UK suffered a huge military defeat in the 20th Century (as happened to every other large country in Europe). The idea of English exceptionalism took hold and the notion that the country was somehow invincible (and even superior) compared to its fragile European neighbours.

At the moment, reality is crashing into the fantasy that many British people and the media have of themselves and it's a most unedifying sight. We're watching a country going through a collective nervous breakdown.

Irish Praetorian · 07-04-2019 02:04PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It might have been no bad thing had the UK suffered a huge military defeat in the 20th Century (as happened to every other large country in Europe). The idea of English exceptionalism took hold and the notion that the country was somehow invincible (and even superior) compared to its fragile European neighbours.

At the moment, reality is crashing into the fantasy that many British people and the media have of themselves and it's a most unedifying sight. We're watching a country going through a collective nervous breakdown.

On the flip-side, if they make it through a no-deal Brexit even better than we're expecting (which admittedly given the prophesies of doom and gloom might constitute no more than simply continue to have an economy), they might end up even more insufferable than before

Mr.Wemmick · 07-04-2019 02:06PM

looksee wrote: »

I find myself perversely wishing they would crash out and suffer the consequences (and I say this as a long time absent brit) just to finish the nonsense. I am however absolutely convinced that we would be better off if Britain stayed in the EU. On the other hand they have made such an exhibition of themselves and stirred up so much ill feeling that their reluctant presence in Europe would, for many years, be an irritant and a disturbing influence. It seems we can't win.

I think it's time everyone ignored them, they're toxic.. so what if they stay to bicker and b!tch. Who cares? It's time for the EU to turn a deaf ear and unless EU business has to be conducted, why listen to them? They should have a default non UK news policy across Europe and just concentrate on moving forward as a body of countries.

Far too much time has been sucked up by this farce. I don't think they should crash out - they should stay, grow up and start behaving like a country that wants to get on in the modern world.

Numpty politics for the dark ages, yeah right.. and where exactly has it got them? :rolleyes:

07-04-2019 02:17PM

If people are saying avoid No Deal Brexit, what are the suggestions for bringing down/exposing the Brexiteers/English rightwing which has been behind these Europhobic campaigns and propaganda in politics and media for decades now?

How do people see them getting their comeuppance?

Purgative · 07-04-2019 02:25PM

Strazdas wrote: »

It might have been no bad thing had the UK suffered a huge military defeat in the 20th Century (as happened to every other large country in Europe). The idea of English exceptionalism took hold and the notion that the country was somehow invincible (and even superior) compared to its fragile European neighbours.

At the moment, reality is crashing into the fantasy that many British people and the media have of themselves and it's a most unedifying sight. We're watching a country going through a collective nervous breakdown.

Singapore
Dunkirk
Dieppe

I could probably find more

Mr.Wemmick · 07-04-2019 02:45PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If people are saying avoid No Deal Brexit, what are the suggestions for bringing down/exposing the Brexiteers/English rightwing which has been behind these Europhobic campaigns and propaganda in politics and media for decades now?

How do people see them getting their comeuppance?

Get rid of the Royal family.

Seriously, there's almost an implacable protectionist side to the british media and establishment, and in there tucked neatly away hides the worst of the worst. Exposed by brexit, now seen for the nasties they are and the knowledge that the tory party has focussed purely to keep them in control and hidden from view at the country's cost, I think the country is finally waking up.

Stay in the EU and see the tory party implode, would be my wish. I live here most of the year, and much like everyone else in the UK, I am sick of the toxic tories and their domestic policies. Something has to give and the whole of the UK needs to wake up and modernise its thinking.

20silkcut · 07-04-2019 02:53PM

For the time will come when people will not put up with sound doctrine. Instead, to suit their own desires, they will gather around them a great number of teachers to say what their itching ears want to hear. They will turn their ears away from the truth and turn aside to myths.

A bible quote from Timothy 4 2 4

Is this Brexit in a nutshell ??
Is it an inevitable reality of human nature?

Strazdas · 07-04-2019 03:13PM

Purgative wrote: »

Singapore
Dunkirk
Dieppe

I could probably find more

Definite examples of battles being lost but they always emerged on the 'victorious' side. In truth, Britain was one of the big real losers of WW2 but it was spun by the media and the propagandists for decades afterwards as a huge and glorious triumph (in reality, the country virtually bankrupted itself and the Empire began to break up almost immediately afterwards).

ancapailldorcha · 07-04-2019 03:32PM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

"Every different Brexit path represents a very different future for our country...........just to be able to tick the box marked 'Brexit' - whatever it means - just so we can say we delivered, I think that would be letting the country down" - Conservative MP Sam Gyimah, speaking on Spohie Ridge on Sunday (Sky News).

Younger Tories like Gyimah or Davidson are precisely who should be leading the party instead of the Brexiters whose sole goal is Brexit. Currently, there is no vision for the country beyond tired and stale soundbytes.

LeinsterDub · 07-04-2019 03:57PM

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

Spanish Eyes · 07-04-2019 04:10PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

Well I will give the benefit of the doubt. Sounds to me like compromise is the way to go, at last. A kick up the backside to the ERG also maybe.

But revoke is the best option of course....:D

Laois_Man · 07-04-2019 04:35PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

Fairly frank and honest from May here.

Can we save the use of the word "Honest" for when she actually shows some compromise on her side instead of just talking about the need for compromise on both sides!

An Ciarraioch · 07-04-2019 04:40PM

The only region where the Brexit Party won't stand candidates is Northern Ireland - because they want to give the DUP a free run there!

http://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1114811435509538816

Mr.Wemmick · 07-04-2019 04:46PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Can we save the use of the word "Honest" for when she actually shows some compromise on her side instead of just talking about the need for compromise on both sides!

Exactly. And it has been accurately pointed out by a poster, 9 or 10 comments down from her vid, that is a very large glass of gin she has in front of her.

The purpose of that speech is to prepare the game for the week ahead and make everyone believe she is heading in one direction, when in fact..

Needless to say, I don't trust her.

Sam Russell · 07-04-2019 04:48PM

Just to return to the question of the EP elections with and without the UK.

I will use numbers that demonstrate the problem, so bear with me. The constituency has three seats with the UK but four without them.

Let us say we have a three/four seater constituency with 10 or more candidates, but we will only look at the first five candidates and assume transfers from lower ordered candidates does not affect the final running order.

Now candidates A and E are one party, and B and D are another, which means surpluses transfer within the party 100%.

So first count has A=25%, B=22%, C=12%, D=11%, and E=10%.

Now with three seats, the quota is 25% and A, B, C all get elected.

However, with four seats, the quota is 20%, so A and B are elected on the first count. Their surpluses are redistributed so E gets an extra 5% bringing the vote to 15%. D gets B's surplus bring the vote to 12%.

So the final count is: A elected, B elected, with E on 15% - elected, D on 12% - elected, with C with 11% - eliminated.

So three seater gets A, B, C. For seater gets A, B, E, and D elected.

So the conundrum is what happens if the UK gets an extension till say April next year and then leaves. Does MEP C clear their desk in favour of MEP D and MEP E?

I have chosen numbers to show how this can happen, but anyone with experience will remember close fights for the last seat, with recounts changing the result. Often it depends on the order of elimination.

Laois_Man · 07-04-2019 04:57PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The only region where the Brexit Party won't stand candidates is Northern Ireland - because they want to give the DUP a free run there!

http://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1114811435509538816

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

Infini · 07-04-2019 05:01PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

That or dont want to be representing an area they might want to be rid of later down the line, they dont consider NI as part of the UK anyways.

In other news that by election the other day...

https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1113961482583195648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1113961482583195648&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.markpack.org.uk%2F158164%2Fnewport-west-byelection-result%2F

Labour wins the seat though both major parties have suffered significant loss of votes. Sad thing bout FPTP is about 30% of the vote is to the other small parties while the 2 big ones take 70% of it.

cml387 · 07-04-2019 05:08PM

Theresa May has now made two direct appeals to the general public. What she hasn't done is an interview with any of the media outlets, at least not recently.
It always seems to be a one way conversation.

Anteayer · 07-04-2019 05:18PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

It's a parallel political system that's effectively separate and has none of the same parties as the rest of the UK and it's also highly politically charged and even potentially dangerous if you get things wrong.

So, I'd say they'r probably making a sane decision to stay well clear.

..

There seems to be an odd lack of any news over the weekend. Given how close the deadlines are, you'd expect a lot more visible activity.

An Ciarraioch · 07-04-2019 05:30PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

Just to return to the question of the EP elections with and without the UK.

I will use numbers that demonstrate the problem, so bear with me. The constituency has three seats with the UK but four without them.

Let us say we have a three/four seater constituency with 10 or more candidates, but we will only look at the first five candidates and assume transfers from lower ordered candidates does not affect the final running order.

Now candidates A and E are one party, and B and D are another, which means surpluses transfer within the party 100%.

So first count has A=25%, B=22%, C=12%, D=11%, and E=10%.

Now with three seats, the quota is 25% and A, B, C all get elected.

However, with four seats, the quota is 20%, so A and B are elected on the first count. Their surpluses are redistributed so E gets an extra 5% bringing the vote to 15%. D gets B's surplus bring the vote to 12%.

So the final count is: A elected, B elected, with E on 15% - elected, D on 12% - elected, with C with 11% - eliminated.

So three seater gets A, B, C. For seater gets A, B, E, and D elected.

So the conundrum is what happens if the UK gets an extension till say April next year and then leaves. Does MEP C clear their desk in favour of MEP D and MEP E?

I have chosen numbers to show how this can happen, but anyone with experience will remember close fights for the last seat, with recounts changing the result. Often it depends on the order of elimination.

I thought it had simply been decided that the candidate finishing fourth in Dublin and fifth in South would take their seats once the UK leaves?

Capt'n Midnight · 07-04-2019 06:13PM

cml387 wrote: »

Theresa May has now made two direct appeals to the general public. What she hasn't done is an interview with any of the media outlets, at least not recently.
It always seems to be a one way conversation.

Brexit MUST be delivered. No explanation other than there was a non binding opinion poll a couple of years ago.

And we will try to not cause hardship, wait what ? , admitting it's likely to go pear shaped but still pressing on.

07-04-2019 06:23PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

More like, they think they don't have a real chance of winning one

Or that like the ERG, they, too, are pushing the DUP off the cliff because they realise that the Brexit which English nationalists like Farage and the Tories want is being undermined by the needs and ideology of the DUP. I wonder, as an aside, to what extent Unionist voters will punish the DUP for their egregiously misjudged support for Brexit? They've opened a massive can of worms/insecurity for Unionists in NI.

Yes, they're still uttering their "verbal Unionism" about "Britishness" for want of a better phrase, but in reality the DUP and Ulster loyalism is an albatross around the aims of English Brexiteers. That is now very, very clear. Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson and Daniel Kawczynski have all come out in the past 10 days to assert clearly and unequivocally that the DUP will not prevent them achieving their very English version of Brexit. The DUP, for their part, sent Dodds out to say he would rather stay in the EU than accept the Backstop!

Hilarious backstabbing going on among the Brexiteers - and it will only get worse as power ebbs away from them. Expect a Brexiteer version of Night of the Long Knives presently.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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