Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

gold spot price has jumped this evening...so thats not a good sign

Brexiteers like to say '' there was talk of doom and gloom when we voted to leave, and it never happened, in fact economy has grown in past 3 years, best to leave on a no deal''

But when they voted to leave they never actually left, they remained in the EU for the past 3 years, and the growth has come on the back on exports to EU. They really are deluded.

Flicked onto TV3 in the vain hope it might be worth watching for a change. Willie O'Dea and Michael Healy Rae. Don't know why I bother.

Shelga wrote: »

Leavers have really screwed over Scotland too, no matter what way you look at it.

If they stay as part of the UK, they are at the mercy of the Tories who could not care less about them. If they vote for independence now, the border with England becomes much more complicated in the case of a hard Brexit, than if England was also in the EU.

Despite that, if I was Scottish, I would vote for independence now, 100%.

To be fair the 1st indy ref was defeated in part BECAUSE of EU membership being an issue. It's pretty certain that a 2nd ref would likely pass a 2nd time around because it would entail both becoming independent and regain EU membership taken BY English politics. It's also likely within 2 years as well the union won't hold under the pressures of a Hard Brexit the opposing internal forces would cause it to break apart.

trashcan wrote: »

I honestly doubt it. I don t think they are bluffing. They'd like the UK to stay, or failing that to agree a deal, but I don't think they want it at any cost.

They were willing to cut Greece loose remember at the worst of it till they finally backed down and ended up with a worse deal in the end than if they'd agreed. The EU doesn't bluff, they'll cut the UK loose in order to maintain the integrity of the EU institutions which are far more important than a dysfunctional former member state that refuses all reason. The irony of course is completely lost on the UK they'll likely be in a worse position later because the exact same issue's they rejected wont go away they'll still be there only with penalties and interest for the damage the tories have caused.

Infini wrote: »

Shift to Amazon.de if needs be. Dunno what will happen in a no deal maybe they'll finally make an Amazon.ie for us....

I used Amazon.de all the time ...stuff always goes through UK before getting here...so it will need to be flown from mainland eu to here...if so that will be more expensive

I wonder who would trust them to honour any agreement now.

Agreements and deals could be tactical, and changed at a moments notice really.

Unless someone knows what sanctions could apply for going rogue.

Anteayer wrote: »

Bear in mind that this could go horribly wrong. British politics is extremely tribal. I'm not sure that a Government of national unity is very likely to work.

I don’t think anyone’s very hopeful. Corbyn and May in a room together, trying to agree on something? I could see it disintegrating in a day or two, just like the last time she tried to ‘reach out’.

MikeSoys wrote: »

I used Amazon.de all the time ...stuff always goes through UK before getting here...so it will need to be flown from mainland eu to here...if so that will be more expensive

That's their couriers choice and will be changed rapidly if it becomes a problem to them. Also, if its air freight it should be transferred airside without ever passing customs, and the operating carrier is likely to have the right nationality (or flexibility with multiple AOCs) to avoid any issues. The package integrators (UPS, TNT, DHL, Fedex) have fleets of aircraft they own or permanently lease and can reassign as needed.

The reverse happens also - I had to get an express document from Newcastle (Tyneside) to Dublin yesterday - it went via Cologne Airport!

Hurrache wrote: »

Here it is, they still haven't discovered irony.
https://twitter.com/duponline/status/1113185824856780800?s=19

Ulster says NO. Well, there's a surprise. That bus is coming at them.

20silkcut wrote: »

And they are the 5th largest economy in the world as members of the EU.

Which they weren’t when they joined in 1973.

That's true. The UK was the 6th largest economy in the world when it joined the EEC.

1. USA
2. Japan
3. West Germany
4. USSR
5. France
6. UK

Now it's the 5th

1. USA
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. UK

So the European project has been so effective that the UK has increased its world rankings one place, by going above another member of the EU. That's because of its trade outside the EU, the effect of joining the EEC is that the UK's exports to the EEC fell and its imports increased.

Might Corbyn be persuaded to follow May's lead and announce that he too will step down as leader of the Labour party..... after both he & TM reach an agreement which is later voted in favour of by a majority of Westminster MPs and/or the public in a second ref.?

It's just a ploy so she can blame a no deal brexit on the labour party. When you realise that she values the survival of the tory party above all else then her moves start to make a bit more sense.

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

That's true. The UK was the 6th largest economy in the world when it joined the EEC.

1. USA
2. Japan
3. West Germany
4. USSR
5. France
6. UK

Now it's the 5th

1. USA
2. China
3. Japan
4. Germany
5. UK

So the European project has been so effective that the UK has increased its world rankings one place, by going above another member of the EU. That's because of its trade outside the EU, the effect of joining the EEC is that the UK's exports to the EEC fell and its imports increased.

Well, it's not as simple as that.

The UK declined steadily in the rankings before joining the EU - it was 4th (after US, USSR, W Germany) in 1960; 5th in 1965 (overtaken by France); 6th in 1970 (overtaken by Japan). It remained in sixth place throught the 70s and 80s. falling to 7th in 1990 (overtaken by Italy).

Then the rise began. By 1995 they were back to 5th place (overtook Italy, Soviet Union knocked out of the running by Events), and by 2005 they were in 4th place (overtook France). By 2010 they were back to 6th place (impact of GFC, overtaken by France and China), before clawing their way back to 5th (overtaking France) just before the Brexit referendum.

So, bit of a mixed bag. But if there's one event which is associated with a marked improvement in the UK's rankings, it's not joining the EEC in 1973; it's the completion of the Single Market in 1993, which led to a steady improvement that continued until the GFC.

These rankings are good for headlines, but they are of course hugely affected by exchange rate movements. In particular the sequence of UK and France regularly leapfrogging one another probably tells you more about EUR:GBP exchange rate movements than it does about the economic productivity of the two countries. There's an alternative measure which seeks to rank countries by GDP based on purchasing power parity; I don't claim to understand the technicalities, but this measure aims to correct for the effect of exchange rate movements, and so show a truer picture of relative economic improvement.

Awkwardly, by this measure, the UK ranks only 9th, down from 8th in 1980 due to the rise of India. Happily, though, it's still ahead of France (10th), whcih will please the headline-writers in certain papers.

Enzokk wrote: »

As with anything from a politician you judge their actions and not their words. So when May said she wants to fight injustice during her first speech and you see her actions in the Home Office and since she has been PM, you know she was talking poppycock. Ask the Windrush Generation about injustice and ask them if it has changed at all.

So why would she change now? All I see and hear is that Star Wars meme, "IT'S A TRAP!".

They have no clue how to have a straightforward honest conversation with each other, nevermind with the public. And, on an issue so important it will change everything in the UK forever, you would think she would have the intelligence to know better. I actually think she is emotionally thick in the extreme.. and Corbyn's not far behind her.

May did similar when she took office, talking up the JAMs, how she had their back, knows how difficult it's been, then walked into No. 10 and simply continued to screw them with Osborne austerity policies. I lost all respect for her then and only saw a glimmer of hope when she lost the majority at the snap election. But now, it makes no difference, the damage she has done here and continues to do is frightening.

I can't shake the image of the tory party standing on an island huddled together safe while the country burns around them and Ireland's struggles to beat back the flames.