Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

trashcan · 28-03-2019 11:55PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

There is a part of me that wants to see the EU call their bluff and turf them out.

Let them **** or get off the toilet.

Another argument for that is the leave voters ( at least large numbers of them) still don't seem to get it. If Article 50 is revoked, or they are narrowly defeated in a referendum ( and I can't seem it being other than extremely close again) there will be ongoing war with them and their leaders for the foreseeable future. Maybe the only thing that will bring them to their senses is to see how their no deal promised land works out in reality. Of course the tragedy is by the time they truly realise what they've done to themselves it will be too late. It won't be easy to put the toothpaste back in that tube.

theoneeyedman · 28-03-2019 11:56PM

Rees Mogg on news night taking offense at someone on hje bbc allegedly comparing the erg to the NF in France, and then pays tribute to the DUP who he shares many values with! What a shyster

Laois_Man · 29-03-2019 12:04AM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

The big question is if they dont get it over the line tomorrow how will the EU react???

The EU knows as well as everyone else that it’s not getting over the line tomorrow

They won’t say much publicly other than politely reminding the UK that they’ve only got 2 weeks left, and not a second more, to come up with a cohesive plan.

Water John · 29-03-2019 12:08AM

Newsnight commented that two thirds of NI voted against Brexit and decided they would visit it to find out the views on the ground. They visited Ballmena and East Belfast only, FFS!!

Headshot · 29-03-2019 12:11AM

Water John wrote: »

Newsnight commented that two thirds of NI voted against Brexit and decided they would visit it to find out the views on the ground. They visited Ballmena and East Belfast only, FFS!!

What do you expect by the ministry of UK propaganda.

FrancieBrady · 29-03-2019 12:13AM

If you want to understand the DUP, tune into the DUP adviser on Newsnight.

Extraordinary arrogance and rudeness.

BobbyBobberson · 29-03-2019 12:15AM

Jon Worth on Twitter made a really good point a couple of days ago. Many commentators say that should there be MEP elections in the UK that anti EU/UKIP would clean up. He made the point that actually, the true irony of Brexit is that it has lead to a europhile rising ie marches, petition and millions of people who want to remain, now old enough to vote etc.

Eod100 · 29-03-2019 12:18AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Jon Worth on Twitter made a really good point a couple of days ago. Many commentators say that should there be MEP elections in the UK that anti EU/UKIP would clean up. He made the point that actually, the true irony of Brexit is that it has lead to a europhile rising ie marches, petition and millions of people who want to remain, now old enough to vote etc.

Hadn't thought of that factor. Would love if Farage lost his seat.

BobbyBobberson · 29-03-2019 12:20AM

https://twitter.com/GraemeDemianyk/status/1111405682845089795

Hahaha.

BobbyBobberson · 29-03-2019 12:24AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Hadn't thought of that factor. Would love if Farage lost his seat.

Either had I. 33 million voted in the referendum, 16 million voted in the last MEP elections. Thats 17 million Brexit voters floating about this time! Could make for interesting results.

Hermy · 29-03-2019 12:25AM

trashcan wrote: »

Maybe the only thing that will bring them to their senses is to see how their no deal promised land works out in reality. Of course the tragedy is by the time they truly realise what they've done to themselves it will be too late. It won't be easy to put the toothpaste back in that tube.

Is it indeed necessary at this stage, at least in the short term, that the UK leave? I'm wondering what difficulties might arise were they to remain and whether, by way of a cooling-off period, it's in everyone's interest that they leave, and maybe come back in a few years when they get their house in order.

josip · 29-03-2019 12:28AM

Hermy wrote: »

Is it indeed necessary at this stage, at least in the short term, that the UK leave? I'm wondering what difficulties might arise were they to remain and whether, by way of a cooling-off period, it's in everyone's interest that they leave, and maybe come back in a few years when they get their house in order.

If they rejoin, they have to adopt the Euro.
So once they're gone, they're gone.

Hermy · 29-03-2019 12:29AM

josip wrote: »

If they rejoin they have to adopt the Euro.

And that would be the red line to trump all red lines I assume?

Strazdas · 29-03-2019 12:30AM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Jon Worth on Twitter made a really good point a couple of days ago. Many commentators say that should there be MEP elections in the UK that anti EU/UKIP would clean up. He made the point that actually, the true irony of Brexit is that it has lead to a europhile rising ie marches, petition and millions of people who want to remain, now old enough to vote etc.

One likely reason is that the UK has had a proper debate on the EU for the last year or so, for the first time ever.

For the last 30 years, there was no debate whatsoever......just the right wing press bashing the EU on a daily basis. Brexit has actually been quite terrible for the British Eurosceptic movement. It has exposed most of them as spivs and charlatans.

L1011 · 29-03-2019 12:46AM

josip wrote: »

If they rejoin, they have to adopt the Euro.
So once they're gone, they're gone.

And Schengen

Club '73 have the best optouts and yet they're fecking off.

looksee · 29-03-2019 12:53AM

Headshot wrote: »

Unfortunately it's always going to be like this. I support your thoughts completely on this but unfortunately it's just what we see in Politics these days and I cannot ever see it change.

You will constantly see the likes of the British blaming the Germans for their woes in Europe and bringing up the war etc

That just simply is not true.

Rain Ascending · 29-03-2019 12:53AM

demfad wrote: »

Analysing the Indicative votes at this stage it be more useful to look at the votes AGAINST than FOR in the indicative votes keeping an eye on abstentions:

Some Indications: (assuming abstain = Potential yes)

1-Five options (all soft/ref/revoke) could have potential majorities when Abstains added.
2-Hard Brexit dead
3-DUP abstaining on SOFT options.
4- If UK parliament ever stumbles into Deal V Revoke: It would be easy majority for Revoke
5-A simple Irish style PR vote (1-8 Pref with eliminations and subsequent redistribution) could whittle it down to any number and would provide far deeper indication analysis.

Thanks for flagging up this important graphic.

I noticed that last night, political commentators repeatedly expressed their frustration that none of the propositions achieved a majority. This is indicative of a political culture that is unfamiliar with coalition building. In reality, there is a lot to play for, but some options are more likely than others:

The magic number for a House of Commons majority is 321 (taking into account one empty seat, the Speaker, and Sinn Féin). If the cabinet, with 22 members I believe, continue to abstain, then that threshold for a majority drops to 310, but the number of available abstentions that can be flipped is reduced by 22.
As bobmcbob noted, one possible source is the pro-Remain combination of SNP + Lib Dem + Plaid Cymru, that abstained in a few critical cases, amounting to 50 votes.
It will be hard to flip no's without significant changes to the overall political context -- and that's unlikely to happen between now and Monday.
Intriguingly, as you noted, demfad, the DUP abstained on both the Norway/EEA options -- signalling that they are interested in that "alternative solution" to the backstop!

So case-by-case:
Confirmatory referendum: Hardened opinions mean that the number of abstentions here is low. Getting an additional 40 or so votes from the 52 votes in play (i.e. excluding the 22 cabinet members) would be a tough ask. Only expect a major shift if UK politics get even more deadlocked...

Customs Union: Here the numbers look good. The 50 pro-Remain abstaining parties should be enough to swing it to a solid "yes".

Labour's Alternative Plan: Too narrow a path -- it's even tighter than a 2nd referendum. It's fundamental problem is one of branding/labeling. Remove "Labour" from the title and Labour shadow cabinet members as the sponsors/proposers and it would be in a much more benign environment.

Common Market 2.0: Has long way to go, but also has a very large pool of Labour voters that might be convinced. (Freedom of Movement and immigration is probably the main issue here.) Combine them with the SNP + Lib Dems + PC and it might be possible.

Revocation: This is another one that probably can't change in the short term, but will find a more favorable environment as we near April 12.

The No deal, standstill transition and the EFTA/EEA Conservative proposals are too far in the red to be recoverable.

Of course, Monday will see evolution of the above proposals, but if we are to see a majority to emerge it will be some permutation of the Customs Union, Labour's Alternative Plan and Common Market 2.0. For a majority to be constructed, there needs to be some fancy political footwork among key players. Negotiations won't be easy because unlike government coalition formation, nobody has any goodies to offer outside of the terms of the motion itself.

Quote from the SNP

The SNP has “not abandoned the potential for compromise”.

Anybody like to comment how far they'd be willing to go?

Itssoeasy · 29-03-2019 12:55AM

Water John wrote: »

Newsnight commented that two thirds of NI voted against Brexit and decided they would visit it to find out the views on the ground. They visited Ballmena and East Belfast only, FFS!!

Ah yeah sure Mark Francois tried to say that the north voted to leave because 2/3rds of the unionist population voting to leave. Which of course isn’t the same thing as 2/3rds of the whole province.

Eod100 · 29-03-2019 01:05AM

Not surprising given the outlet but with the planned march on Westminster tomorrow this seems completely over the top.

http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/D2xzVGuX4AAgnjq.jpg

Rain Ascending · 29-03-2019 01:20AM

Rain Ascending wrote: »

Of course, Monday will see evolution of the above proposals, but if we are to see a majority to emerge it will be some permutation of the Customs Union, Labour's Alternative Plan and Common Market 2.0. For a majority to be constructed, there needs to be some fancy political footwork among key players.

And so it begins:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/28/mps-backing-soft-brexit-hope-to-unite-around-a-compromise-option

Professor Moriarty · 29-03-2019 01:27AM

Jacob got a roasting on Newsnight tonight. Exposed for the hypocritical fraud that he is. Mattis tore into him so much I thought he was going to headbutt her. Well done Emily.

Strazdas · 29-03-2019 02:04AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Not surprising given the outlet but with the planned march on Westminster tomorrow this seems completely over the top.

http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/D2xzVGuX4AAgnjq.jpg

As if the Daily Express and the ERG are the most democratic people in Britain :rolleyes:

The Express has been openly campaigning for Le Pen in France and the AfD in Germany (!)

marno21 · 29-03-2019 02:04AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Jacob got a roasting on Newsnight tonight. Exposed for the hypocritical fraud that he is. Mattis tore into him so much I thought he was going to headbutt her. Well done Emily.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1111401612440801281

Pity this line of questioning has not been taken since this charade began. Absolute charlatan of the highest order.

Peregrinus · 29-03-2019 02:14AM

Headshot wrote: »

Can they actually have secret ballots out of interest?

MrMusician18 wrote: »

Parliament can do what it wants.

Technically, yes, but politically and constitutionally secret votes of MPs are unthinkable. MPs are representatives and are supposed to be democratically accountable. Hard to hold someone to account when you're not allowed to know what actions he is taking. Effectively this would be a power grab by MPs from the people.

Zubeneschamali · 29-03-2019 07:21AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Alberto Nardelli reports that the divorce deal, citizens' rights, and the backstop would remain prerequisites to trade talks in a no deal scenario

Of course they remain prerequisites - and the UK will already be knee deep in the consequences of No Deal, they will be looking at day-by-day escalating crises on many fronts, and they will really, really need a deal fast.

The EU has already announced unilateral emergency measures to keep at least some flights in the air for example, but these will be revokable at any time if PM Boris starts throwing he weight around at talks.

If they think the EU is bullying them now, just wait until after No Deal.

lawred2 · 29-03-2019 07:27AM

Strazdas wrote: »

One likely reason is that the UK has had a proper debate on the EU for the last year or so, for the first time ever.

For the last 30 years, there was no debate whatsoever......just the right wing press bashing the EU on a daily basis. Brexit has actually been quite terrible for the British Eurosceptic movement. It has exposed most of them as spivs and charlatans.

Yeah but those spivs and charlatans are just about to get their way

Leroy42 · 29-03-2019 07:28AM

It is likely that the vote will lose today, but by a very reduced margin.

That will put massive pressure on the remaining hold out ERG members to get behind the party, put massive pressure on DUP not to be the ones to destroy Brexit etc

I would then expect another vote close to 12 Apr to pass and the EU to give extension to allow the legislation to go through

Zubeneschamali · 29-03-2019 07:39AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

That will put massive pressure on the remaining hold out ERG members to get behind the party, put massive pressure on DUP not to be the ones to destroy Brexit etc

The DUP do not like the backstop so they will not back the deal, full stop.

And if they don't, it is not the end of Brexit: it is now quite clear that parliament can come up with a softer Brexit and the EU will allow time for that.

Peregrinus · 29-03-2019 07:55AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The DUP do not like the backstop so they will not back the deal, full stop.

And if they don't, it is not the end of Brexit: it is now quite clear that parliament can come up with a softer Brexit and the EU will allow time for that.

. . . if HMG doesn't get in the way.

joe40 · 29-03-2019 08:13AM

Mon vote is important, however regardless of what options are chosen it is still up to May and her government to implement policy.
I can't see her going back on her WA or red lines to pursue softer Brexit.
I can't see a her government offering second referendum.
But I also can't see her forcing through "no deal" by simple inaction.
Therefore surely the only outcome in the short term is a GE.
Maybe there are other options that I'm missing.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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