Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Loafing Oaf · 28-03-2019 10:16PM

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

And my understanding is that choice is Teresa May's. If she wanted to let no deal happen AFAIK she could not be stopped. But all the signs are she doesn't...

FrancieBrady · 28-03-2019 10:17PM

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

A long extension is not their choice though, they can choose to request one if they come up with - a way forward - to accompany it. They can also choose to revoke.

Irishmale0399 · 28-03-2019 10:17PM

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

The question is what happens if they dont contact the EU tomorrow before close of business......

My understanding was they had to pass the WA by tomorrow to get the May exit or they had to come to Brussels and offer an alternative. Both are very far away....so maybe the EU member states will indeed say its game over.

Headshot · 28-03-2019 10:19PM

Westernyelp wrote: »

If it doesn't pass tomorrow. It's a choice between crash out and long extension.

Or something might come out of the indicative vote Monday.

I wouldnt be surprised to see Customs and confirmation referendum coming out on top. It would be make a good match up

Strazdas · 28-03-2019 10:21PM

PropJoe10 wrote: »

I would say extremely poorly. I'd say it'll be a matter of either a very long extension or the total revocation of Article 50 if this disastrous shambles continues for much longer. Monday's votes will likely be a re-run of yesterday. This parliament is going absolutely nowhere.

Katya Adler said on BBC News last night the mood in Brussels is really bad. They are disgusted with how Parliament (and May) are behaving.

Nody · 28-03-2019 10:37PM

Oh hai...

It was agreed among the member states that for there to be any talks after the UK has crashed out, the bloc’s 27 capitals will expect Downing Street to agree to signal by 18 April that it will pay the £39bn Brexit bill despite the failure of the Commons to ratify the withdrawal agreement.

The terms of the Irish backstop, keeping Northern Ireland in large parts of single market legislation and the EU’s customs territory in order to protect the Good Friday agreement, would remain as the bloc’s solution for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

“These are the preconditions – money, Ireland and citizens – and they are the three main issues in the withdrawal agreement”, a diplomat said.

Exactly as we speculated before and the Brexiteers on thread dismissed the first thing that happens at crash out is UK gets told to pay up and agree to the terms EU set before anything else gets negotiated; but EU needs UK more than UK needs EU and UK is in a strong negotiation position etc.

Enzokk · 28-03-2019 10:40PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Katya Adler said on BBC News last night the mood in Brussels is really bad. They are disgusted with how Parliament (and May) are behaving.

They are probably flabbergasted that, having given May some breathing space but also laid out that her time is up if her deal doesn't pass again, she is not going quietly into that good night. They can also see that if she forces parliament to vote for her deal and blackmails them by offering her resignation in return, it is the EU that will have to deal with the consequences of this and having a Brexiteer in office with a deal they don't like is the worst option other than no-deal. At least with no-deal you know what you will get, not the uncertainty that is sure to follow.

Water John · 28-03-2019 10:44PM

Well they in the EU went to special lengths to give the UK an extra chance, from their POV and the UK have been pissing around in that time, again.

Hope Monday brings something positive. I think its probably best for all that the UK leaves with a Soft Brexit or only stays with a 2nd Ref.

Headshot · 28-03-2019 10:45PM

The French protested the UK joining the EU originally and they still cannot wait to get rid of them. The French really do hate the English

Kermit.de.frog · 28-03-2019 10:52PM

Are they voting on the elements that contain the backstop tomorrow?

What are the chances of it passing (without DUP)?

ancapailldorcha · 28-03-2019 10:53PM

Headshot wrote: »

The French really do hate the English

What on earth are you basing this on?

lawred2 · 28-03-2019 10:56PM

Headshot wrote: »

The French protested the UK joining the EU originally and they still cannot wait to get rid of them. The French really do hate the English

Ridiculous statement. Tabloidesque in the extreme

Headshot · 28-03-2019 10:59PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

What on earth are you basing this on?

History lol

But relating to Politics, it seems mostly the French are the resisting to the UK extensions, they were mostly out spoken voice from the last meeting and they just want them out.

I can see where they are coming from but it's cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Westernyelp · 28-03-2019 11:01PM

Headshot wrote:

Or something might come out of the indicative vote Monday.

Too late on Monday to keep the May 22nd date. It will be April 12th deadline for decision

ancapailldorcha · 28-03-2019 11:07PM

Headshot wrote: »

History lol

But relating to Politics, it seems mostly the French are the resisting to the UK extensions, they were mostly out spoken voice from the last meeting and they just want them out.

I can see where they are coming from but it's cutting off your nose to spite your face.

"History lol". What is this drivel? This is the sort of idiotic sh*te that lead to Brexit to begin with. Oversimplistic "Us vs. them" nonsense. They can never be like us because they're too different. Or something about Napoleon who was vanquished over 200 years ago I suppose.

The French simply seem to be reaching the end of their tether when it comes to indulging the Conservatives and their shenanigans. That's it. Putting forward an idea that a nation of 65 million free individuals hates a slightly smaller nation is beyond daft.

Spook_ie · 28-03-2019 11:10PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

"History lol". What is this drivel? This is the sort of idiotic sh*te that lead to Brexit to begin with. Oversimplistic "Us vs. them" nonsense. They can never be like us because they're too different. Or something about Napoleon who was vanquished over 200 years ago I suppose.

The French simply seem to be reaching the end of their tether when it comes to indulging the Conservatives and their shenanigans. That's it. Putting forward an idea that a nation of 65 million free individuals hates a slightly smaller nation is beyond daft.

That would be a novel idea if it were anyway true, how many times do we get the expression " Remember the last 800 years"

PropJoe10 · 28-03-2019 11:15PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Katya Adler said on BBC News last night the mood in Brussels is really bad. They are disgusted with how Parliament (and May) are behaving.

I'd say they're amazed and appalled at the circus going on in London. This whole thing makes the Irish Water fiasco look like a well organised job.

Headshot · 28-03-2019 11:17PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

"History lol". What is this drivel? This is the sort of idiotic sh*te that lead to Brexit to begin with. Oversimplistic "Us vs. them" nonsense. They can never be like us because they're too different. Or something about Napoleon who was vanquished over 200 years ago I suppose.

The French simply seem to be reaching the end of their tether when it comes to indulging the Conservatives and their shenanigans. That's it. Putting forward an idea that a nation of 65 million free individuals hates a slightly smaller nation is beyond daft.

Unfortunately it's always going to be like this. I support your thoughts completely on this but unfortunately it's just what we see in Politics these days and I cannot ever see it change.

You will constantly see the likes of the British blaming the Germans for their woes in Europe and bringing up the war etc

Duane Dibbley · 28-03-2019 11:17PM

Hypothetically speaking.

If the WA vote was held via a secret ballot. I wonder if it would pass.

BobbyBobberson · 28-03-2019 11:21PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Hypothetically speaking.

If the WA vote was held via a secret ballot. I wonder if it would pass.

I would say yes. I have read journo's comment the exact same. Too many politicians wanting to save face and not change.

Also I would imagine absolute brexit fatigue would cause some to vote for it.

Duane Dibbley · 28-03-2019 11:23PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I would say yes. I have read journo's comment the exact same. Too many politicians wanting to save face and not change.

Also I would imagine absolute brexit fatigue would cause some to vote for it.

This is exactly what I was thinking too

FrancieBrady · 28-03-2019 11:24PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Hypothetically speaking.

If the WA vote was held via a secret ballot. I wonder if it would pass.

If all the ballots were secret then we wouldn't be where we are.

Headshot · 28-03-2019 11:25PM

Can they actually have secret ballots out of interest?

Enzokk · 28-03-2019 11:26PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Are they voting on the elements that contain the backstop tomorrow?

What are the chances of it passing (without DUP)?

Well they are voting for the deal with the backstop as you said so the chances of it passing based on the previous votes should be small. But she is bound to get more support than last time. Even if she had DUP support I don't think she will get it through as there are enough ERG members to oppose it and you will have some Conservatives that will also vote against it. The Labour MPs that will go against the whip will not be enough to get it through, in my opinion.

Enzokk · 28-03-2019 11:31PM

Headshot wrote: »

Can they actually have secret ballots out of interest?

I don't know and a quick search doesn't bring up any results. My thinking would be that you cannot have secret ballots as your MPs votes should be recorded for reference. If you don't agree with their voting record you can write to them or not vote for them in the next election. If there was secret ballots then while they could speak against a motion they could vote for it and be open to influence to buy their votes.

I mean if there vote was secret what is to stop outside influences from paying for those votes?

MrMusician18 · 28-03-2019 11:31PM

Headshot wrote: »

Can they actually have secret ballots out of interest?

Parliament can do what it wants.

bazermc · 28-03-2019 11:43PM

What time tomorrow is the vote in Westminster due at?

Headshot · 28-03-2019 11:47PM

bazermc wrote: »

What time tomorrow is the vote in Westminster due at?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/28/brexit-latest-news-live-no-deal-on-12-april-most-likely-unless-mps-back-mays-deal-or-alternative-says-letwin-politics-live

MPs are scheduled to vote on Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement alone from 14.30 tomorrow, the 29th of March, the day Britain was originally meant to exit from the EU. Unless some last-minute shifts occur, it would be a huge surprise if the prime minister managed to get enough MPs to back her agreement, even after having separated it from the deal’s political declaration.

A Dub in Glasgo · 28-03-2019 11:52PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Hypothetically speaking.

If the WA vote was held via a secret ballot. I wonder if it would pass.

If it was a secret ballot, revocation of Article 50 would have happened months ago

An Ciarraioch · 28-03-2019 11:52PM

Alberto Nardelli reports that the divorce deal, citizens' rights, and the backstop would remain prerequisites to trade talks in a no deal scenario:

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/eu-uk-brexit-choices-no-deal-delay

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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