Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini · 23-03-2019 11:19PM

Inquitus wrote: »

The wheels seem to be coming off for real this time:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1109574905253806080

The simple truth is that even if she's forced out whoever takes over is going to decide quickly what the plan of action will have to be. A cancellation of A50 and a 2nd Referendum is the most logical choice because it would not only buy time legitimately without falling foul of the "not in good faith" part of the judgment for unilateral withdrawal but give them enough time to organize a plan of withdrawal without the red lines issue and possibly with a general consensus of what Parliament will and will not pass if there's a 2nd leave vote.
The Conservatives need to decide as well to elect a competent leader this time not wasters and idiots like Boris who's dragged their nation into the dirt for their petty and selfish interests. That leader will also need to be smart enough and Stateman like to allow a 2nd referendum purely as a way of making sure the people want to leave this time. If parliament can vote more than once the people have that right as well.

However it would also give the British a 2nd chance to decide weather to go ahead with Brexit or not but what it will need this time is for alot more aggressive challenging of the lies and BS that was allowed to fly about the first time. Would also be hopeful the 2nd time around people are far more aware this time of what they stand to lose should the vote leave again.

Farage and friends will whinge but I'd be honest him and his ilk need to be given the "led by donkeys" treatment 24/7 wherever they go and whenever they rear their heads. Hang them with their own ignorant BS they've posted and interviews they've spouted until they run for the hills in embarrasment and shame as they're exposed as the wasters they are. These fools should not be allowed to go unchallenged and be allowed to ruin peoples lives for their vainglorious delusions.

Headshot · 23-03-2019 11:20PM

Its funny she's done so much to keep her party together and bend over backwards for the ERG and they stab her in the back

I suppose she gets what she deserves for putting her party before the people of the UK

prawnsambo · 23-03-2019 11:21PM

Inquitus wrote: »

It would be legal, but she has to agree to resign, there is no mechanism to force her to resign, the only mechanism that could force her out was the Tory confidence vote that failed and cannot be repeated until Dec. Obviously there comes a point where your position is untenable and how could she really stay on if all her Cabinet threatened or did resign? Even Thatcher resigned in the end even though she won the first round of the leadership contest, because she felt her position was untenable due to not gaining enough votes to win the contest in the first ballot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election#First_ballot

I think if a Tory member proposed a no-confidence motion in the HoC, that would be the end. Of course Jeremy Corbyn would probably whip against it. :rolleyes:

Inquitus · 23-03-2019 11:25PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I think if a Tory member proposed a no-confidence motion in the HoC, that would be the end. Of course Jeremy Corbyn would probably whip against it. :rolleyes:

Aye that doesn't actually remove her as leader of the Tory Party it just causes an election if there is a follow up vote 14 days later confirming the same.

An Ciarraioch · 23-03-2019 11:25PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Thanks, not doubting you, but would that be legal or would Bercow or some other constitutional expert/Attorney General be able to refute it.

What a total and utter mess. BTW I would prefer Lidington to that toad Gove any day. Still, it ain't my country, but their actions will impact on all of us.

Yes, Lidington has at least been responsible for day-to-day relations with Ireland for the last few months, so the Government would know just what to expect from him.

Infini · 23-03-2019 11:26PM

Headshot wrote: »

Its funny she's done so much to keep her party together and bend over backwards for the ERG and they stab her in the back

I suppose she gets what she deserves for putting her party before the people of the UK

Not sure this is the ERG stabbing her in the back but rather those who realise that if they allow her to drive the country off the cliff NONE of them will escape the consequences of that sort of catastrophe. They'd likely have to live in hiding or leave the country as the level of damage would be such they'd never be able to live a normal life in peace.

They might have wanted Brexit but I think it's dawning on them expecially with todays 1million man march and the explosive growth of the petition that they wont get any Brexit that wlll be of benefit to them. The European Troll Group are wasters and idiots but they're a minority in the conservative party too but allowing them to have their way will likely destroy the conservative party as well.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yes, Lidington has at least been responsible for day-to-day relations with Ireland for the last few months, so the Government would know just what to expect from him.

Dunno much about this guy but if he had to take over in an emergency role what do you think he would do about the Brexit situation, would he realistically go to parliament recommending an A50 withdrawal or 2nd referendum or at least agree to an extention to the end of the year with UK participation in the Europarl elections?

Inquitus · 23-03-2019 11:28PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Yes, Lidington has at least been responsible for day-to-day relations with Ireland for the last few months, so the Government would know just what to expect from him.

Yep Lidington is a remainer, and imo, one of the few Tories in Cabinet that hasn't got his reputation in tatters. He is also definitely, from an Irish perspective, the best option available to bring a favourable confusion to this mess within the given timeframe of 12th April.

This is good news for us, we need May gone, we need the HoC to effectively pursue other options, and the UK needs someone other than May going to Brussels. The EU have, at this stage, lost all faith in May and her ability to deliver on anything.

prawnsambo · 23-03-2019 11:28PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye that doesn't actually remove her as leader of the Tory Party it just causes an election if there is a follow up vote 14 days later confirming the same.

It doesn't. But if a Tory MP, especially a front bencher proposed that, it would be curtains. She'd resign before that went to a vote.

Inquitus · 23-03-2019 11:32PM

Telegraph with the help of all our favourite ERG Brexiteers try to pour cold water on march numbers:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/03/23/peoples-vote-campaigners-march-london-demanding-public-given/

The People's Vote campaign has been accused of "overestimating" by Brexiteers after claiming one million people took part in a march through London in support of a second referendum.

Thousands of demonstrators walked from Park Lane to Parliament Square on the 'Put It To The People March' holding placards which read 'Brexit is Rubbish', 'Revoke Article 50' and 'We Love EU'.

People's Vote, the campaign group which organised the rally, said more than one million people took part and it was one of the biggest protests in British history.

The group has previously been accused of trying to mislead politicians and voters about its level of support.

FrancieBrady · 23-03-2019 11:34PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

It doesn't. But if a Tory MP, especially a front bencher proposed that, it would be curtains. She'd resign before that went to a vote.

Would the remain members(reputedly the majority) not unify behind her though, if the only other candidates are Brexiteers? Doesn't make sense that they would allow that even if they hate her.

Spanish Eyes · 23-03-2019 11:34PM

Seems to me that a combo of the EU red lines (the irony), together with the petition and the million march today has knocked some heads together.

How did they not see this coming. That is the puzzle for me. Anyway if a No Deal is avoided that is good for everyone apart from the headbangers.

Capt'n Midnight · 23-03-2019 11:35PM

Headshot wrote: »

Its funny she's done so much to keep her party together and bend over backwards for the ERG and they stab her in the back

I suppose she gets what she deserves for putting her party before the people of the UK

Reminds me of when Cameron left.

The joke was the House of Commons canteen was running out of cutlery due to the amount backstabbing.

I suppose this means that May's deal won't get a third meaningful vote ?
Or if it did there's ever more reasons for Tories to vote against it.

The DUP are not for turning either.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/22/brexit-latest-news-eu-summit-extend-delay-article-50-eu-says-uk-will-leave-in-three-weeks-with-no-deal-unless-mps-back-agreement-or-decide-plan-b-politics-live

But without May or a the deciding vote they find out very soon that they are very alone. https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/03/22/the-dup-smash-up-their-agreement-with-theresa-may-and-are-headed-for-isolation/

The DUP need to be exceedingly careful if they think the ERG are their friends or a brexiteer PM will look out for the precious union. They will learn as Carson did that to those in Parliament Irish politicians are mere pawns in a bigger game of power. Always have been. Always will be.

prawnsambo · 23-03-2019 11:50PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Would the remain members(reputedly the majority) not unify behind her though, if the only other candidates are Brexiteers? Doesn't make sense that they would allow that even if they hate her.

Why? She's intent on leaving and now threatening a hard brexit. She's literally off the reservation. Somebody has to step in.

Inquitus · 23-03-2019 11:54PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Why? She's intent on leaving and now threatening a hard brexit. She's literally off the reservation. Somebody has to step in.

Yep, you are 100% correct, she needs to be gone and as soon as possible, if we want to avoid a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time. She has sabotaged this whole process especially since Christmas, delaying the MV for months, wasting time heading over the Brussels, or sending people over, maintaining a pretense that progress was being made, when her only intention was the misguided idea that if she ran down the clock long enough she might get her deal through parliament. 3 months completely wasted and on the cusp of crashing out, it's been an abject failure of leadership!

Spanish Eyes · 23-03-2019 11:54PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Why? She's intent on leaving and now threatening a hard brexit. She's literally off the reservation. Somebody has to step in.

Be gas if she just resigned after Church Service in Sonning tomorrow. No miracles coming her way anyway.

But she is so dogged and blinkered she will carry on with the power of prayer I suppose.

Great time for us anoraks to be witness to all this.

FrancieBrady · 23-03-2019 11:55PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Why? She's intent on leaving and now threatening a hard brexit. She's literally off the reservation. Somebody has to step in.

She says that, but does she mean it? It is just another clumsy tactic to get them to accept her deal which is about the best they can get without destroying themselves.

With nobody but Brexiteers to take her place I would have thought keeping the thing you know would be the safest option.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-03-2019 11:56PM

The singling out of May is a complete delusion by the cabinet, the Troy party, the Commons, and the people of the UK. They are the ones who have completely left the reservation (can we say that these days, or is it offensive to Native Americans?). They have failed her, and ditching her brings them no closer to a solution.
The man with the power to bring this matter to a sensible close is Mr Jeremy Corbyn. He should show leadership, commend the PM's deal, and encourage but not whip the labour MPs to support it in a 3rd MV. State so publicly and campaign for its support from others with time for them to consider and come on board.
WA approved. Disaster averted. Democracy and the Commons comes to its senses before its too late.
Come on Jeremy if you are reading this thread - be a man and do the right thing for your country.

devnull · 23-03-2019 11:58PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Yep, you are 100% correct, she needs to be gone and as soon as possible, if we want to avoid a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time. She has sabotaged this whole process especially since Christmas, delaying the MV for months, wasting time heading over the Brussels, or sending people over, maintaining a pretense that progress was being made, when her only intention was the misguided idea that if she ran down the clock long enough she might get her deal through parliament. 3 months completely wasted and on the cusp of crashing out, it's been an abject failure of leadership!

Her going could result in a member of the ERG becoming leader of the Tory party and they are even more likely to go for No Deal, so as much as I despise May and the way that she has handled Brexit, if we want to avoid the UK having a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time, we might be better off with her staying than a member of the ERG taking over.

prawnsambo · 24-03-2019 12:01AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

She says that, but does she mean it? It is just another clumsy tactic to get them to accept her deal which is about the best they can get without destroying themselves.

With nobody but Brexiteers to take her place I would have thought keeping the thing you know would be the safest option.

What she says doesn't matter any more. She's the problem. She's so wedded to her deal that she'll contemplate a hard brexit if it doesn't go through. And even if that's just a ploy, we're well past the time for such shenanigans. It's bizarre. Remember she couldn't come up with any kind of plan B when asked by the EU27.

Spanish Eyes · 24-03-2019 12:02AM

devnull wrote: »

Her going is going to result in a member of the ERG becoming leader of the Tory party most likely and they are even more likely to go for No Deal, so as much as I despise May and the way that she has handled Brexit, if we want to avoid the UK having a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time, we might be better off with her staying than a member of the ERG taking over.

Not sure if you are referring to an interim PM/Leader of the Tories or talking about the future.

But surely the remainers and non ERG in Government would be in a position to block any ERG moron from ascending to the throne. Surely?

I am not sure, and I am not saying you are wrong, I just cannot see ERG getting anywhere near the top job now.

prawnsambo · 24-03-2019 12:05AM

devnull wrote: »

Her going could result in a member of the ERG becoming leader of the Tory party and they are even more likely to go for No Deal, so as much as I despise May and the way that she has handled Brexit, if we want to avoid the UK having a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time, we might be better off with her staying than a member of the ERG taking over.

How is that possible? These are max 80 MPs. They should never have been given the oxygen they have now. Just sideline them and divide and rule. They're a rump without a semblance of an idea between them. They've been given the chance and failed miserably and continuously to come up with alternative plans or run away from responsibility. They should have zero credibility at this stage. There are far more sensible MPs in the party than that bunch.

Inquitus · 24-03-2019 12:07AM

devnull wrote: »

Her going could result in a member of the ERG becoming leader of the Tory party and they are even more likely to go for No Deal, so as much as I despise May and the way that she has handled Brexit, if we want to avoid the UK having a chaotic no deal crash out in a few weeks time, we might be better off with her staying than a member of the ERG taking over.

They are talking about installing an interim leader until the Autumn when they host the new leadership elections. That interim leader could in that timeframe shape the future relationship with the EU and enshrine it in law, be it SM and CU or whatever. This would undoubtedly be a softer Brexit.

An Ciarraioch · 24-03-2019 12:08AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Not sure if you are referring to an interim PM/Leader of the Tories or talking about the future.

But surely the remainers and non ERG in Government would be in a position to block any ERG moron from ascending to the throne. Surely?

I am not sure, and I am not saying you are wrong, I just cannot see ERG getting anywhere near the top job now.

I think though, that if a leadership contest has two candidates, it's thrown open to the Tory membership, hence why Lidington would only be crowned as a consensual stand-in.

devnull · 24-03-2019 12:12AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

How is that possible? These are max 80 MPs. They should never have been given the oxygen they have now. Just sideline them and divide and rule. They're a rump without a semblance of an idea between them. They've been given the chance and failed miserably and continuously to come up with alternative plans or run away from responsibility. They should have zero credibility at this stage. There are far more sensible MPs in the party than that bunch.

If there's two candidates there is going to be a leaver and a remainer most likely and honestly whilst the ERG themselves don't have enough members to win such a vote, I'd argue with an election on a horizon, saying that the leave candidate will not garner as many votes as the remainer and taking that for granted would be very foolish.

Also the leader is crowned based on Tory membership, which is going to be favouring the leaver. Sure, it's a gamble that could pay off for the remainers, but it could also backfire on them spectacularly if they get a hard brexiteer in place of May.

FrancieBrady · 24-03-2019 12:13AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

What she says doesn't matter any more. She's the problem. She's so wedded to her deal that she'll contemplate a hard brexit if it doesn't go through. And even if that's just a ploy, we're well past the time for such shenanigans. It's bizarre. Remember she couldn't come up with any kind of plan B when asked by the EU27.

Just chewing the fat here. I agree with what you say, but we aren't the Tory party.

I can't see how it would be sensible for a remain Tory to get rid of May and replace her with an outright Brexiteer is the point I am making. It's a given that there is no sense emanating from the party mind you.

Laois_Man · 24-03-2019 12:17AM

I don't get it. Changing PM doesn't change much in the short term

The WA would still be very unlikely to pass

It is still very doubtful that the HoC would vote for a second referendum

They aren't going to vote for a General Election either because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas. The new PM would have to use his discretionary ability to call one - and they won't appoint one who might do that

The Government will still be beholding to the DUP

The HoC would still be split about 4 different ways giving nothing a majority

Kermit.de.frog · 24-03-2019 12:29AM

Nicky Morgan touted as replacement to Theresa May according to the Sunday Telegraph.

She has been in favor of the backstop so probably wouldn't be the worst choice from our point of view.

I think Liddington will take over from May next week though as a caretaker - that's what the tea leaves are saying.

Inquitus · 24-03-2019 12:30AM

Laois_Man wrote: »

I don't get it. Changing PM doesn't change much in the short term

The WA would still be very unlikely to pass

It is still very doubtful that the HoC would vote for a second referendum

They aren't going to vote for a General Election either because Turkey's don't vote for Christmas. The new PM would have to use his discretionary ability to call one - and they won't appoint one who might do that

The Government will still be beholding to the DUP

The HoC would still be split about 4 different ways giving nothing a majority

Lidington could reach out across the aisle, he has had talks with Starmer from Labour and others this past week. Cross party consensus is the only way forward at this point, and he might well be the man to deliver it.

Laois_Man · 24-03-2019 12:33AM

Inquitus wrote: »

Lidington could reach out across the aisle, he has had talks with Starmer from Labour and others this past week. Cross party consensus is the only way forward at this point, and he might well be the man to deliver it.

Firstly, they need to start with finding inner party consensus before they worry about cross-party consensus

Secondly, I can't accept there's very much chance that the Labour party leadership are going to give the Tory's a darn thing!

Inquitus · 24-03-2019 12:37AM

Laois_Man wrote: »

Firstly, they need to start with finding inner party consensus before they worry about cross-party consensus

Secondly, I can't accept there's very much chance of the Labour party leadership are going to give the Tory's a darn thing!

They can't find inner party consensus, that's simply not going to happen, that's the reason why we are where we are, the only way forwards is some sort of cross party consensus. With the deadline the EU has imposed, cross party consensus is the only way forwards, whether led by Lidington, or if the Commons takes control of the process itself, the only way this is going to be resolved is with a resolution that appeals to chunks of all the major parties.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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