Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Joe_ Public · 23-03-2019 04:40PM

Think it was Blair who said many months back that a second referendum only made sense if you could somehow guarantee a 60% remain vote. I don’t think you’d get that in remainers wildest dreams but maybe you’d get somewhere close if they learned from past mistakes and ran an effective campaign.

Strazdas · 23-03-2019 04:41PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

The simple truth is that 17 million or so Brits voted to remain, less than a quarter of that signing an online petition that is easily manipulated is not as big news as some people would like to believe.

Same as the march, its a fraction of the amount of people who already voted against Brexit! So what does it prove??

Anyway I'm merely playing devil's advocate here, I think Remain would win if they got another vote. I think the the win margin would need to be a good 10% to be able to rightly say, were gonna go with the second vote.

But the feverish way these current remain demonstrations are being celebrated when the figures do not tip the balance of the original vote is quite telling. Like the Brexiteers some remainers will happily throw democracy under the bus if it suits their side.

Don't forget though that the Brexiteers and the right wing press are claiming that anyone opposed to Brexit is "undemocratic" : this despite the fact that Leave supporters are almost certainly a clear minority in Britain right now - this is a complete perversion of democracy

It's rather arrogant of them to think they are still in control of the narrative

Akrasia · 23-03-2019 04:44PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Think it was Blair who said many months back that a second referendum only made sense if you could somehow guarantee a 60% remain vote. I don’t think you’d get that in remainers wildest dreams but maybe you’d get somewhere close if they learned from past mistakes and ran an effective campaign.

Remains wildest dreams? The brexiteers know they'll almost certainly lose so they'd probably end up boycotting the vote so they can attempt to de-legitimise it

PokeHerKing · 23-03-2019 04:47PM

Strazdas wrote:

this despite the fact that Leave supporters are almost certainly a clear minority in Britain right now -

Whilst I'd probably agree with this statement, I certainly don't think it's clear or certain. Your assumption that it's is so clear cut could be construed as arrogance .

fly_agaric · 23-03-2019 04:47PM

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/border-to-be-discussed-between-ireland-and-eu-as-brexit-pressure-intensifies-1.3835698

"Asked about the issue on Friday, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said Ireland would seek to “uphold the Good Friday Agreement, keep the border with Northern Ireland open and still fulfil our obligations in European treaties to protect the single market and make sure Ireland is still fully a member of the single market and that the Border doesn’t become a backdoor to the single market”.

Mr Varadkar was speaking at the conclusion of the two-day summit.

Meanwhile, Tánaiste Simon Coveney, speaking at the Fine Gael conference in Wexford, said there would need to be regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic to keep the Border open even if there was no Brexit deal."...

...we still advocate for the solution that we know works, which is the backstop

I do find this sort of self-contradictory stuff disturbing as we get so close to a potential UK withdrawal with no agreement in place.
If our leaders think rest of the EU (many of whom have extremely politically troublesome borders they are expected to enforce) is going to allow damage to the single market for very long to accommodate the NI problem child they are really away with the fairies as much as any of the Brexiteers.
For the same reasons they have backed Ireland up in its positions for last 2 years + told the UK they cannot "cherry-pick" aspects of being in the EU, they are not going to fudge this.

There is a need to face reality & not potentially sacrifice benefits of our own EU membership for the sake of NI's various unresolved "issues".
The actions of NIs own exceedingly stupid and ignorant politicians helped scupper any sort of orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU which would have kept the border open. Ireland did it's best during the negotiations & the DUP spat on it (after also supporting Brexit). We don't owe them anything more on this issue IMO.

charlie14 · 23-03-2019 04:48PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No. The same applies. Unless more march that voted one way, then they are only a subset of the original vote. So no new information is learned.

Even if your premise is the ridiculous idea that more people should march than voted to justify another referendum, there are certainly many more marching to remain than there are to leave.
If the will of the majority now, as you seem to be implying is to leave, after three years, the fiasco this has turned out to be and the lies exposed of the leave campaign shown for what they were, what is the fear of leavers in holding another referendum ?
In your case the numbers partaking in the two marches perhaps ?

Joe_ Public · 23-03-2019 04:48PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Remains wildest dreams? The brexiteers know they'll almost certainly lose so they'd probably end up boycotting the vote so they can attempt to de-legitimise it

Who knows? But vote would still likely be close if it goes ahead and you’ll still have deep division after it. I like the idea of second referendum personally, like many many others, but I’m not blind to the risks that come attached with it either. Not sure it’s the automatic panacea that some believe it to be.

Calina · 23-03-2019 04:50PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No. The same applies. Unless more march that voted one way, then they are only a subset of the original vote. So no new information is learned.

Why are you so terrified of a second vote?

Spook_ie · 23-03-2019 05:19PM

devnull wrote: »

I've just seen one of the weakest interviews in living memory on the BBC.

John Redwood just given free reign to run what is pretty much a political broadcast alongside live footage of the march for about 10 minutes, pretty much uninterrupted not challenged at all to back up anything he was saying, with very little focus on the march itself.

However there seems to be an attempt to draw a comparison by Farage's march as well, which has not gone unnoticed.

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1109449984510959624

Meanwhile
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1109440829981114374

to be fair one is a march from Sunderland the other is a bussed/railed whatever in gathering of protesters, think Jarrow March that was only 200 or so, achieved very little but many people have heard of the Jarrow March

Spook_ie · 23-03-2019 05:25PM

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

When the inevitable civil disruption occurs there will be a need for a security presence. You know that, I know that, everyone knows that.

NI's status is already different to Britain's in many ways -- how would increased controls at the natural border known as the Irish Sea change NI's status exactly?

Wouldn't that depend on if people are profiting by smuggling etc.?
Would you be causing civil disruption if you were profiting from it, I wouldn't.

Beechwoodspark · 23-03-2019 05:25PM

Charles Babbage wrote: »

The will of the people of NI is to remain in the EU. How is London going going to exert this level of control over a part of the UK required to thwart their will. The usual stuff I suppose, helicopters, beatings, shooting people on the streets, etc

Don’t forget state collusion with loyalist murder squads

Strazdas · 23-03-2019 05:34PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Whilst I'd probably agree with this statement, I certainly don't think it's clear or certain. Your assumption that it's is so clear cut could be construed as arrogance .

Not a single opinion poll since around Spring 2017 has shown Leave with a lead. For them to be talking about "democracy" and "the will of the people" and using that as the main justification for everything they do is a bit rich.

This is why they are rather uncomfortable with the petition and doing everything to discredit it - it's ripping into their very justification for Brexit

Shelga · 23-03-2019 05:34PM

It’s unfair to compare March to Leave with the one happening in London today. The Leave one is a ridiculous 200 mile walk that requires people to give up 2-3 weeks of their lives and pay for the privilege. Today’s one is on a Saturday and is only for a few hours.

Also, I could see the Leave campaign successfully organising something similar if and when a second referendum is announced, because then they have something concrete to object to, just like today’s marchers have a clear goal.

Although the idea of Leavers successfully organising anything, or having a good idea what they want to achieve, is pretty far-fetched, based on current patterns.

Akrasia · 23-03-2019 05:34PM

Spook_ie wrote: »

to be fair one is a march from Sunderland the other is a bussed/railed whatever in gathering of protesters, think Jarrow March that was only 200 or so, achieved very little but many people have heard of the Jarrow March

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

Especially when they are faced with either a long extension or a revoking of A50?

Shelga · 23-03-2019 05:38PM

I wonder if the EU are thinking about anything they would change about the article 50 process? As obviously this is the first time it’s been used.

Clearly it’s not in their interest to make the path to leaving much easier, but the current chaos suits no one. Perhaps add a clause that there has to be an agreement on strategy decided by the country’s parliament before proceeding? Then everyone knows where they stand and it doesn’t all come to a head in the last 2 weeks.

It would probably stop anyone else leaving too, because the moment you try to agree a strategy at home is when you realise you’ll never get a better deal than the one you have as a full EU member.

Infini · 23-03-2019 05:44PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

The simple truth is that 17 million or so Brits voted to remain, less than a quarter of that signing an online petition that is easily manipulated is not as big news as some people would like to believe.

25million odd people didnt even vote in the first referendum and the leave side won by a SMALL margin of those who did. These hypocrytes have shouted will of the people to silence others who doubt this and only because the genral mood is shifting againt them. They're doing this without a plan and a care about the damage it will cause. Theyre reckless and stupid wasters who Tusk rightly described as having a special place in hell for pushing this without a plan and dont care about the damage it will cause others.

They're scared because they lucked out on a narrow victory and now enough people have caught on to risk and damage their little vainglorious project will cause.

Spook_ie · 23-03-2019 05:49PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

Especially when they are faced with either a long extension or a revoking of A50?

Nothing, but you are comparing a 200 mile march to a fairly static gathering, kind of comparing Lemons to Bananas, yes they are both fruits, yes they are both yellow but nothing much else.

Like wise they are both protests, they both involve people but there y'go.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 06:02PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

If our leaders think rest of the EU (many of whom have extremely politically troublesome borders they are expected to enforce) is going to allow damage to the single market for very long to accommodate the NI problem child they are really away with the fairies as much as any of the Brexiteers.

It's OK, No Deal Brexit can't last very long, so we just act shocked until the Brits are on their knees and come back for a deal - backstop will be top of the preconditions.

Zubeneschamali · 23-03-2019 06:05PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Whats stopping them from organising a rally in London to support their aim of leaving the EU?

I think the Organizing part is the problem.

Timberrrrrrrr · 23-03-2019 06:11PM

Infini wrote: »

25million odd people didnt even vote in the first referendum and the leave side won by a SMALL margin of those who did. These hypocrytes have shouted will of the people to silence others who doubt this and only because the genral mood is shifting againt them. They're doing this without a plan and a care about the damage it will cause. Theyre reckless and stupid wasters who Tusk rightly described as having a special place in hell for pushing this without a plan and dont care about the damage it will cause others.

They're scared because they lucked out on a narrow victory and now enough people have caught on to risk and damage their little vainglorious project will cause.

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

The Irish government has agreed to hold a referendum to ease the country's restrictions on divorce. ... Divorce was approved in the Republic of Ireland in 1995 by 50.28% to 49.72%.

An Ciarraioch · 23-03-2019 06:27PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I'm wondering how many people who keep quoting this would be happy if the god botherers started calling for a fresh referendum on divorce in Ireland, it was passed by a small margin after all.

At least in that instance, or the Welsh devolution referendum, it was clear what the enactment of the referendum would entail - beyond leaving the political institutions of the EU, there was no agreement on the economic implications of Brexit.

devnull · 23-03-2019 06:29PM

Many of the high profile leavers were saying that remain only truly wins if they win by a big margin and get around 60% of the vote or more, otherwise another vote wouldn't be far away.

Farage himself said that if it was 52:48 in favour of remain then it wasn't finished, but he expects it to be finished now because his side won, so he's a complete hypocrite and is currently being excellently trolled by Led by Donkeys.

KildareP · 23-03-2019 06:34PM

fly_agaric wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/border-to-be-discussed-between-ireland-and-eu-as-brexit-pressure-intensifies-1.3835698

"Asked about the issue on Friday, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said Ireland would seek to “uphold the Good Friday Agreement, keep the border with Northern Ireland open and still fulfil our obligations in European treaties to protect the single market and make sure Ireland is still fully a member of the single market and that the Border doesn’t become a backdoor to the single market”.

Mr Varadkar was speaking at the conclusion of the two-day summit.

Meanwhile, Tiste Simon Coveney, speaking at the Fine Gael conference in Wexford, said there would need to be regulatory alignment between Northern Ireland and the Republic to keep the Border open even if there was no Brexit deal."...

...we still advocate for the solution that we know works, which is the backstop

I do find this sort of self-contradictory stuff disturbing as we get so close to a potential UK withdrawal with no agreement in place.
If our leaders think rest of the EU (many of whom have extremely politically troublesome borders they are expected to enforce) is going to allow damage to the single market for very long to accommodate the NI problem child they are really away with the fairies as much as any of the Brexiteers.
For the same reasons they have backed Ireland up in its positions for last 2 years + told the UK they cannot "cherry-pick" aspects of being in the EU, they are not going to fudge this.

There is a need to face reality & not potentially sacrifice benefits of our own EU membership for the sake of NI's various unresolved "issues".
The actions of NIs own exceedingly stupid and ignorant politicians helped scupper any sort of orderly withdrawal of the UK from the EU which would have kept the border open. Ireland did it's best during the negotiations & the DUP spat on it (after also supporting Brexit). We don't owe them anything more on this issue IMO.

I don't believe the government are in anyway unprepared for this - for many months they stated they were not making any preparations whatsoever for a No Deal because they didn't believe it were necessary. It is very much apparent now that they were in fact preparing in detail for No Deal and a hard border ever since the Brexit result was announced.

Problem is they can't openly state that they are preparing or accepting that a No Deal is a very high possibility because the UK will be all over it accusing the Irish Government - and by extension, the EU - of all sorts, not acting in good faith, sabotaging negotiations, undermining trust, etc.

Hence the what appear to be contradictory-to-reality statements coming from Leinster House. There's what's happening in the background and there's what's being fed to the frontline for negotiation purposes.

Joe_ Public · 23-03-2019 06:38PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

At least in that instance, or the Welsh devolution referendum, it was clear what the enactment of the referendum would entail - beyond leaving the political institutions of the EU, there was no agreement on the economic implications of Brexit.

This is true and i think it suggests that for a second referendum to stand any chance of settling divisions, there has to be clarity around the framework. You have to present some option of brexit instead of just leave where you are just potentially bringing things back to square one.

fly_agaric · 23-03-2019 06:40PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

It's OK, No Deal Brexit can't last very long, so we just act shocked until the Brits are on their knees and come back for a deal - backstop will be top of the preconditions.

Would much rather have seen the current agreement voted through smoothly than test this theory!
This idea also rests on rationality, organisation + acting in your best interests but that seems to be gone out the window (or on hold anyway) in the UK for the moment at least.

backspin. · 23-03-2019 06:42PM

George Galloway quoting in twitter a COMRES poll that has leave on 50% and remain on 35%.

Laois_Man · 23-03-2019 06:52PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

This is true and i think it suggests that for a second referendum to stand any chance of settling divisions, there has to be clarity around the framework. You have to present some option of brexit instead of just leave where you are just potentially bringing things back to square one.

Anyone who votes "Leave" in a second ref should have to specify what sort of leave they want with at least 2 choices - including (dangerously) a no-deal Exit.

But I find it so ironic when I hear Leavers protest about people insulting their intelligence when claiming that nobody who voted 'Leave' knew what they were voting for.....then complain such a ballot paper would be too complicated!

An Ciarraioch · 23-03-2019 06:54PM

backspin. wrote: »

George Galloway quoting in twitter a COMRES poll that has leave on 50% and remain on 35%.

Wasn't a straight Leave/Remain poll, however:

http://twitter.com/jammers1978/status/1109510186539143178

listermint · 23-03-2019 06:55PM

backspin. wrote: »

George Galloway quoting in twitter a COMRES poll that has leave on 50% and remain on 35%.

George Galloway is an idiot though. So id like to see the source

fly_agaric · 23-03-2019 06:58PM

KildareP wrote: »

I don't believe the government are in anyway unprepared for this - for many months they stated they were not making any preparations whatsoever for a No Deal because they didn't believe it were necessary. It is very much apparent now that they were in fact preparing in detail for No Deal and a hard border ever since the Brexit result was announced.

Problem is they can't openly state that they are preparing or accepting that a No Deal is a very high possibility because the UK will be all over it accusing the Irish Government - and by extension, the EU - of all sorts, not acting in good faith, sabotaging negotiations, undermining trust, etc.

Hence the what appear to be contradictory-to-reality statements coming from Leinster House. There's what's happening in the background and there's what's being fed to the frontline for negotiation purposes.

I was somewhat persuaded by that argument before, but the negotiations are well over & done now. I am sceptical about extent of preparation (as in tangible stuff that is hard to do and really costs a lot of money, new infrastructure, new staff, upgraded IT systems) for a "no deal" scenario given the Irish govt. didn't want to believe it was actually possible. I suppose I can't blame them for that too much.

It is hard to know (as you said they have not wanted to talk about any preparations for "no deal" at all for political reasons - stock answer to these questions for a long while now is the agreement is negotiated, UK should just get on with it & ratify it).

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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