Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Donald Trump · 23-03-2019 03:10PM

recedite wrote: »

I just explained it. Its not my fault you don't understand it.
Ratification, Jurisdiction, these are big words.

I suggest you should research things in future, before you start arguing about them.

Why do you appear to think that the UK Parliament should decide what the EU can and can't ask for?

I mean, with all your research and what you think are your "big words", you seem to think that that is the case. I think that you should maybe focus on smaller words if the big words confuse you!

EU and TM agree a deal. Signed off on. TM goes back to England. They don't endorse it. Goes back to EU. EU says "eh, no. If we are doing a deal, we insist on that condition".

Your stance seems to be that the EU can't request a condition that the UK parliament doesn't like. I'd like for you to be in that chair across from me in a negotiation.

hypothetical negotiation to illustrate absurdness

recedite: "We'll build that house for you but we will have to charge you 200k"
Donald Trump: "ok, That's do-able."

2 months later

Donald trump: "Hey, Recedite. I checked with the family and they don't like having to pay 200k. We want you to come back and negotiate a new deal to build the house for free"
recedite: "oh ok. Well given that you didn't get it passed in your own house, I can't insist that the price is 200k. I guess seeing as you made the decision in your own house, I will have to agree to doing it for free"

ancapailldorcha · 23-03-2019 03:11PM

road_high wrote: »

How’s the people’s march going in London?

Quite well. Massive turnout and good weather. Got there a bit late but even now we're not moving.

road_high · 23-03-2019 03:14PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Quite well. Massive turnout and good weather. Got there a bit late but even now we're not moving.

Is there much discussion amongst people or what is the general feeling?

devnull · 23-03-2019 03:19PM

I've just seen one of the weakest interviews in living memory on the BBC.

John Redwood just given free reign to run what is pretty much a political broadcast alongside live footage of the march for about 10 minutes, pretty much uninterrupted not challenged at all to back up anything he was saying, with very little focus on the march itself.

However there seems to be an attempt to draw a comparison by Farage's march as well, which has not gone unnoticed.

https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1109449984510959624

Meanwhile
https://twitter.com/peoplesvote_uk/status/1109440829981114374

Junkyard Tom · 23-03-2019 03:23PM

recedite wrote: »

1. Removal of British Army and RUC security installations already happened. Customs control is not the same thing.

When the inevitable civil disruption occurs there will be a need for a security presence. You know that, I know that, everyone knows that.

2. "Status of NI cannot be changed without consent of its people". Creating a new customs border in the Irish sea, separating off NI from Britain, would be a change to its status.

NI's status is already different to Britain's in many ways -- how would increased controls at the natural border known as the Irish Sea change NI's status exactly?

Headshot · 23-03-2019 03:25PM

Good old Farage spreading his lies on Sky news, what a jackass. It's pity he's allow to spread his vile rubbish unchallenged on Sky News.

What makes it worse there's idiots that support him, they in many ways are worse than Farage

An Ciarraioch · 23-03-2019 03:31PM

People's Vote claim one million in attendance - mind you, they stated 750,000 for the last march, and it was later estimated at around 200,000.

ancapailldorcha · 23-03-2019 03:35PM

road_high wrote: »

Is there much discussion amongst people or what is the general feeling?

Much the same as last time. People here are just as fervent in voicing their opposition to Brexit. Nothing has changed save for the levels of farce and incompetence in the government.

Akrasia · 23-03-2019 03:39PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

People's Vote claim one million in attendance - mind you, they stated 750,000 for the last march, and it was later estimated at around 200,000.

Estimated by whom?

Joe_ Public · 23-03-2019 03:41PM

How many are there “in spirit” though? This is surely the key question. I would say 100 million but that is conservative estimate. Wonder what Nige thinks.

ancapailldorcha · 23-03-2019 03:41PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Estimated by whom?

I'd be keen on finding this out. This is my second march. Place is completely jammed. My understanding was 700,000.

road_high · 23-03-2019 03:45PM

Headshot wrote: »

Good old Farage spreading his lies on Sky news, what a jackass. It's pity he's allow to spread his vile rubbish unchallenged on Sky News.

What makes it worse there's idiots that support him, they in many ways are worse than Farage

All 5 of them in a pub beer garden. Farage and his never ending rhetoric are unbearable but he knows how to tap into the lowest common denominator of British politics and is clearly relishing a continuation of the whole brexit farce as it gives him relevance he otherwise wouldn’t have

Harry Palmr · 23-03-2019 03:54PM

Euronews footage from earlier, about 90 mins of it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fK4lHigNGSM

An Ciarraioch · 23-03-2019 03:54PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Estimated by whom?

Greater London Authority, apparently:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-03-2019 03:56PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I'd be keen on finding this out. This is my second march. Place is completely jammed. My understanding was 700,000.

Does it matter though ? Unless the number exceeds twenty million, it doesnt really indicate anything at all, does it ?

listermint · 23-03-2019 03:58PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Does it matter though ? Unless the number exceeds twenty million, it doesnt really indicate anything at all, does it ?

Ugh...

Where did you get that figure from and why.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-03-2019 04:13PM

listermint wrote: »

Ugh...

Where did you get that figure from and why.

Final Say is just a deceitful spin by remainers to try to rerun the original referendum in the hope of reversing it.
18 million, or something such, voted to remain. So having single millions out asking for a rematch tells us nothing new. Only if the numbers exceeded by a clear few million, that remain vote, would there be a clear case for a second ref.

Capt'n Midnight · 23-03-2019 04:14PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Greater London Authority, apparently:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/01/05/peoples-vote-march-attended-third-number-organisers-claimed/

Different estimate based on photos and crowd density
https://fullfact.org/news/did-670000-march-peoples-vote-brexit/

The reality is that it’s really hard to accurately measure crowd sizes at non-ticketed events. That said, our crude estimate is that, based on available evidence, it looked like around 450,000 people were present at the start of the march.

...
Also, regardless of how many people were in attendance when the march started at 1.23pm, it’s plausible that more joined further along the route, or just at Parliament Square for the closing speeches.

charlie14 · 23-03-2019 04:17PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Estimated by whom?

From what I have been told by someone who has been involved in calculating march numbers, apparently it is not that difficult to determine numbers.

If you know the square area covered by the marchers then there is a pretty accurate correlation.

devnull · 23-03-2019 04:18PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Final Say is just a deceitful spin by remainers to try to rerun the original referendum in the hope of reversing it.
18 million, or something such, voted to remain. So having single millions out asking for a rematch tells us nothing new. Only if the numbers exceeded by a clear few million, that remain vote, would there be a clear case for a second ref.

There's a massive flaw in that.

Voting takes place up and down the country all day and this march is only in London at a specific time.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-03-2019 04:21PM

devnull wrote: »

There's a massive flaw in that.

Voting takes place up and down the country all day and this march is only in London at a specific time.

Voting ?

ancapailldorcha · 23-03-2019 04:24PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Different estimate based on photos and crowd density
https://fullfact.org/news/did-670000-march-peoples-vote-brexit/

I'd a link from the Metropolitan Police as a source from the last march. 4G is spotty so I can't dig it up right now.

ArmaniJeanss · 23-03-2019 04:24PM

Already the most signed petition ever, and likely to end up double the next highest.
Looking like the second biggest protest march in uk history.

Whether they'll make any difference is one thing (probably won't) but to dismiss them as insignificant is particularly mealy-mouthed.

charlie14 · 23-03-2019 04:28PM

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Final Say is just a deceitful spin by remainers to try to rerun the original referendum in the hope of reversing it.
18 million, or something such, voted to remain. So having single millions out asking for a rematch tells us nothing new. Only if the numbers exceeded by a clear few million, that remain vote, would there be a clear case for a second ref.

If you used the same analogy on the simultaneous march to leave numbers, then your point is null and void on the case for a second referendum

volchitsa · 23-03-2019 04:30PM

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Already the most signed petition ever, and likely to end up double the next highest.
Looking like the second biggest protest march in uk history.

Whether they'll make any difference is one thing (probably won't) but to dismiss them as insignificant is particularly mealy-mouthed.

I assume that only the "Stop the War" march, against the Iraq war, was bigger, which is significant, when we look at who was right there. When so much of the population feels so strongly that its government is wrong, they really need to be listened to.

Inquitus · 23-03-2019 04:30PM

It had to make some difference, open some eyes, galvanise some politicians, at the very least. It's clear now there is probably a majority in the voting public for remain at this juncture.

The Rape of Lucretia · 23-03-2019 04:34PM

charlie14 wrote: »

If you used the same analogy on the simultaneous march to leave numbers, then your point is null and void on the case for a second referendum

No. The same applies. Unless more march that voted one way, then they are only a subset of the original vote. So no new information is learned.

PokeHerKing · 23-03-2019 04:35PM

The simple truth is that 17 million or so Brits voted to remain, less than a quarter of that signing an online petition that is easily manipulated is not as big news as some people would like to believe.

Same as the march, its a fraction of the amount of people who already voted against Brexit! So what does it prove??

Anyway I'm merely playing devil's advocate here, I think Remain would win if they got another vote. I think the the win margin would need to be a good 10% to be able to rightly say, were gonna go with the second vote.

But the feverish way these current remain demonstrations are being celebrated when the figures do not tip the balance of the original vote is quite telling. Like the Brexiteers some remainers will happily throw democracy under the bus if it suits their side.

weemcd · 23-03-2019 04:37PM

Second referendum odds haven't changed significantly, that I can tell for quite a while now, which I'm slightly surprised by. Bookies do occasionally get it wrong, but it certainly doesn't look likely.

I'd be in favour of a second referendum, purely on the basis that there is likely to be an even larger turnout, and remain would be a likely outcome.

I fear this doesn't happen though.

Akrasia · 23-03-2019 04:38PM

Inquitus wrote: »

It had to make some difference, open some eyes, galvanise some politicians, at the very least. It's clear now there is probably a majority in the voting public for remain at this juncture.

At the very least it gives politicians the out when challenged by leave voters. They can point at the huge march and the biggest petition in history, and then point at Farages tiny pathetic march and say that they believe the will of the people has changed

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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