Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Harry Palmr · 21-03-2019 12:44AM

Shelga wrote: »

Kirsty Wark: "What will happen with the border in Ireland?"

Suzanne Evans: "Nothing, that's a red herring, we will just carry on as we are" *shrugs*

Kirsty Wark: moves on to next item

Staggeringly awful 'journalism' from the BBC, as usual. Lather rinse repeat.

Not so much awful journalism as clever politicing - anyone who works as an advisor will tell the politician to lob the grenade or posit the most contentious opinion right at the end - live media has a fantastically tight schedule so a host or another guest will simply not have the chance to challenge - they have to go to a break, the next item on a pre-set running order (each segment of which will have been timed during the production meeting) or end the programme (and woe betide anyone who tries to let the programme run over).

Hurrache · 21-03-2019 12:45AM

Andrew Pierce still ****ing on that the EU are terrible horrible people making it difficult for the UK during negotiations on the Sky News paper review.

strawdog · 21-03-2019 12:46AM

Sparko wrote: »

I'm honestly amazed she came out and gave that speech, really can't see how she thought it was a good idea. Her advisers are sabotaging her.

Can't really say I'm surprised. She seems, against all evidence, to fancy herself as a political gambler. Her only win was when she got PM by default, but that was after backing the wrong horse. She then gambled on a snap election to strengthen her hand and made herself weak and dependent on DUP. She gambled on a deal based on those hard red lines with no consensus on the basis it would be grudgingly passed as the only non-catastrophic option for Brexit. And now she's gambling on turning the public anger/disaffection/boredom yada yada against MPs to pressure them to pass it after two heavy losses. Like the worst kind of gambler, she is in a deep hole and trying to gamble her way out of it.

MikeSoys · 21-03-2019 12:49AM

.sky observer.. implying DUP will accept T May deal (as dup have had lenghty meeting with treasury) ... imigine with 1B could do for n ireland ðŸ˜

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 12:50AM

MikeSoys wrote: »

.sky observer.. implying DUP will accept T May deal (as dup have had lenghty meeting with treasury) ... imigine with 1B could do for n ireland ðŸ˜

Why are DUP so important when May can't get her own party on side? Not like ERG will automatically do what DUP do..

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 12:52AM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Not so much awful journalism as clever politicing - anyone who works as an advisor will tell the politician to lob the grenade or posit the most contentious opinion right at the end - live media has a fantastically tight schedule so a host or another guest will simply not have the chance to challenge - they have to go to a break, the next item on a pre-set running order (each segment of which will have been timed during the production meeting) or end the programme (and woe betide anyone who tries to let the programme run over).

Watching it, it felt in the territory of being so monumentally dumb that it throws you, you don’t know what to say to it so merciful thing is to move on. Evans is so clueless she had no business being there in the first place. I know they’re in short supply but they could find leavers outside parliament who actually have a coherent thought in their head.

Itssoeasy · 21-03-2019 12:52AM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Is there a speech in history that has ever backfired as badly as that from the M bot tonight.time for the EU to say enough is enough and leave on Friday week

Neville chamberlain after the Munich conference ?

bobmalooka · 21-03-2019 12:53AM

MikeSoys wrote: »

.sky observer.. implying DUP will accept T May deal (as dup have had lenghty meeting with treasury) ... imigine with 1B could do for n ireland ðŸ˜

Answer: The biggest bonfire you’ve ever seen

I think DUP will hold their position after seeing the backlash against May, if history tells us something (GFA) it’s that they’ll only climb on board when they know it’s a sure thing

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 12:56AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Why are DUP so important when May can't get her own party on side? Not like ERG will automatically do what DUP do..

Fair question which i couldn’t answer. The whole dynamic between the erg and dup is one that mystifies me. Maybe someone can explain it, i certainly can’t.

Hurrache · 21-03-2019 12:57AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Why are DUP so important when May can't get her own party on side? Not like ERG will automatically do what DUP do..

The odd thing is that they have been taking their cue from the DUP, even to the point of saying so.

Anteayer · 21-03-2019 01:08AM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Fair question which i couldn’t answer. The whole dynamic between the erg and dup is one that mystifies me. Maybe someone can explain it, i certainly can’t.

They both feed off a notion of British supremacy and exceptionalism. They're coming from different places but they basically feed into eachother's narratives and tend to fire each other up.

You'll find English nationalists and right wingers who see the NI peace process as appeasing the IRA or ceding territory too. They're unlikely to be very positive about the GFA either.

Eod100 · 21-03-2019 01:21AM

Hurrache wrote: »

The odd thing is that they have been taking their cue from the DUP, even to the point of saying so.

Yeah think that's a bit of a flag of convenience to deflect flack from them. Basically saying unless DUP are happy, motions won't go through even if the ERG is on side. They're presenting it as this principled stance to back DUP but they have their own motives.

recedite · 21-03-2019 01:21AM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

There is no plans to change the rules of parliament or override him. The idea is that the European Council will endorse the "Strasbourg Agreement" tomorrow, which will constitute a change in the proposition, therefore there will be no impediment to bringing the bill before parliament again. Now this excuse is paper thin and is really only cover for Bercow, who will be under enormous pressure to allow the vote.

The vote will definitely go ahead if there is a feeling that it will be close.

They already voted on the "Strasbourg Agreement".
If they vote on it again, Bercow will be doing a u-turn, which is quite possible (because he is an idiot).

BonnieSituation · 21-03-2019 01:26AM

recedite wrote: »

They already voted on the "Strasbourg Agreement".
If they vote on it again, Bercow will be doing a u-turn, which is quite possible (because he is an idiot).

Do tell us why he is an idiot?

Your contributions have been illuminating so far so this should be interesting.

josip · 21-03-2019 01:31AM

recedite wrote: »

...
If they vote on it again, Bercow will be doing a u-turn, which is quite possible (because he is an idiot).

If that is the case, then would that there were more idiots like him in the HOC asylum.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 01:34AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah think that's a bit of a flag of convenience to deflect flack from them. Basically saying unless DUP are happy, motions won't go through even if the ERG is on side. They're presenting it as this principled stance to back DUP but they have their own motives.

Yeah that does make some sense alright. The only thing I’d be certain about is that when JRM talks about the dup it’s very likely not out of any empathetic loyalty he feels for them or even any concern for the backstop. Deeper motives underlying all of it.

recedite · 21-03-2019 01:35AM

He wastes parliamentary time rambling on about boring personal anecdotes, he makes contradictory rulings (hence he will likely have to make a U-turn), he walks to HoC dressed like an old hobo, and worst of all he is blatantly a partisan Remainer while sitting in the office of one who should be impeccably neutral.

Joe_ Public · 21-03-2019 01:37AM

recedite wrote: »

He wastes parliamentary time rambling on about boring personal anecdotes, he makes contradictory rulings (hence he will likely have to make a U-turn), he walks to HoC dressed like an old hobo, and worst of all he is blatantly a partisan Remainer while sitting in the office of one who should be impeccably neutral.

No u turns will have to be made.

Imreoir2 · 21-03-2019 01:42AM

recedite wrote: »

He wastes parliamentary time rambling on about boring personal anecdotes, he makes contradictory rulings (hence he will likely have to make a U-turn), he walks to HoC dressed like an old hobo, and worst of all he is blatantly a partisan Remainer while sitting in the office of one who should be impeccably neutral.

Perhaps you can show us where he has made an error in judgement on the issue of the permisibility of holding multiple votes on the same motion.

WhiteMan32 · 21-03-2019 02:06AM

Headshot wrote: »

Sigh that Nolan show was crap, barely any time to Brexit

BBC1 Question Time this Thursday evening comes from Belfast!

Headshot · 21-03-2019 02:14AM

WhiteMan32 wrote: »

BBC1 Question Time this Thursday evening comes from Belfast!

That should be fascinating

The panel will be Tobias Ellwood MP, Nick Thomas-Symonds MP, Jeffrey Donaldson MP, John O’Dowd MLA and Polly MacKenzie.

WhiteMan32 · 21-03-2019 02:23AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Am I right in thinking the extension to A50 until June is to get a MV3 passed next week? Can it get passed in HOC if motion doesn't change?

Good point. I mean, were the DUP to decide to announce publicly in advance that they will vote for the Withdrawal Agreement next week or next month, surely speaker Berchow could not merit MV3 as being different to MV1 or MV2 simply because of a promised turnaround by those 10 MPs.

Anteayer · 21-03-2019 02:27AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I doubt that will happen. EU will remain conciliatory as far as possible. Otherwise there will be heaps of sh!te piled on them for their arrogance in trying to keep the UK within the fold.

The irony of that!

But for a long time anything negative about Brexit was blamed on Remainers and the EU anyway. And it will be forever thus. The debacle of UK Government/Parliament will soon be forgotten, because they have a scapegoat right there in front of them forever.

Sad times. And so unnecessary too. Negotiations? Are you joking me.

The Sky survey was quite interesting: https://news.sky.com/story/brexit-90-say-handling-of-negotiations-is-national-humiliation-sky-data-poll-11670995

Data: https://interactive.news.sky.com/BREXIT_TABS_200319.pdf

Only 7% of the UK public surveyed (and it's a representative sample) blamed the EU. 26% blame MPs and 34% blame the government while 24% are just blaming all of them equally, but it's interesting that most of the scorn is being correctly aimed at the domestic British political system, not the EU institutions.

So it's possible that 'project blame everyone else' isn't working quite as well as the Tories think.

BonnieSituation · 21-03-2019 02:43AM

Headshot wrote: »

That should be fascinating

The panel will be Tobias Ellwood MP, Nick Thomas-Symonds MP, Jeffrey Donaldson MP, John O’Dowd MLA and Polly MacKenzie.

Tobias Ellwood MP: Remain. Leave constitutuency. Tory. Former military. Now reservist. Gaffe-in Williamson understudy in MOD.

Nick Thomas-Symonds MP: Remain. Leave constituency. Labour. Welsh. Well-regarded barrister and academic.

Jeffrey Donaldson MP I mean...do I need to say who he is...

John O’Dowd MLA: SF MLA. Minister of Education in Stormont before it was brought down by DUP corruption and intransigence. Acted as dep FM when Martin was canvassing for President in 2011.

Polly MacKenzie: CEO of Demos think-tank. Former advisor to Nick Clegg when he was Dep PM.

The audience should be something special I would say. Plucked from the loins of the Shankill and Ards no doubt.

21-03-2019 03:21AM

Last night: "Meh, she barely says anything of note. I'll just go to sleep."

This morning: "This woman is underslept and has lost her marbles, and is lacking in good advisors."

Any wonder it's a shltshow.

Laois_Man · 21-03-2019 06:13AM

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Tobias Ellwood MP: Remain. Leave constitutuency. Tory. Former military. Now reservist. Gaffe-in Williamson understudy in MOD.

Nick Thomas-Symonds MP: Remain. Leave constituency. Labour. Welsh. Well-regarded barrister and academic.

Jeffrey Donaldson MP I mean...do I need to say who he is...

John O’Dowd MLA: SF MLA. Minister of Education in Stormont before it was brought down by DUP corruption and intransigence. Acted as dep FM when Martin was canvassing for President in 2011.

Polly MacKenzie: CEO of Demos think-tank. Former advisor to Nick Clegg when he was Dep PM.

The audience should be something special I would say. Plugged from the loins of the Shankill and Ards no doubt.

I expected DUP representation to be from Arlene Foster herself - and I am actually surprised they have any Sinn Fein representation at all but if they were to have, I would have expected it to have been Michelle O'Neill or Mary Lou

Peregrinus · 21-03-2019 06:32AM

This parliamentary petition to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU was started two days ago, and has accumulated (at the time of posting this) 363,300 signatures.

Not quite as many as the 369,839 sigantures on this petition to leave the EU without a deal in March 2019, but that one has been open for signature for 5 months.

Boardies who are voters in the UK may wish to consider signing one or other petition, if they have not already done so.

Scoondal · 21-03-2019 06:38AM

To sum up Donald Tusk's statement yesterday :
UK can get an extension to 23 May if the withdrawal agreement is passed before 29 March. Or a longer extension might be agreed if there is a referendum or a general election.
But on independant ie, they say that France, Belgium and Spain oppose any extension short or long.
Anyway the UK parliament will not agree to the UK/EU agreement.
So it must be a UK general election or referendum or a "No Deal" exit on 29 March.
What else can happen ?

dresden8 · 21-03-2019 06:51AM

We're all concentrating on the commons but if it does get through there any word on which way the lords will jump?

Laois_Man · 21-03-2019 06:55AM

Scoondal wrote: »

To sum up Donald Tusk's statement yesterday :
UK can get an extension to 23 May if the withdrawal agreement is passed before 29 March. Or a longer extension might be agreed if there is a referendum or a general election.
But on independant ie, they say that France, Belgium and Spain oppose any extension short or long.
Anyway the UK parliament will not agree to the UK/EU agreement.
So it must be a UK general election or referendum or a "No Deal" exit on 29 March.
What else can happen ?

I really don't thing France, Belgium or Spain will mind too much any longer about an extension if MV3 passes next week. If it doesn't, there's no extension and it's not an issue.

The only way there is going to be an extension for a 2nd referendum or a General Election is if Teresa May is somehow ousted within the next 8 days. So it's hard to see how that can become an issue either.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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