Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

CelticRambler · 13-03-2019 02:19PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The idea is that it will still be bad for EU suppliers to the UK as they will have to compete in the UK market with low cost goods from the rest of the world.

Maybe, but you still can't beat geographical proximity. If McDonalds need a few extra tonnes of tomatoes for next weekend, are they going to get them from Spain or South Africa? Israel competes against "expensive" EU suppliers for the supply of oranges, but doesn't even reach half its quota because they're four days away from Germany rather than Spain's two-day distance, so EU supermarkets buy local.

Anteayer · 13-03-2019 02:22PM

steddyeddy wrote: »

I really think the loyalist community in Northern Ireland vote themselves into poverty by voting for these guys. Unfortunately now they have the ear of the Tory party and do for Britain what they did for the economics of loyalist communities.

The bigger problem is that if the Northern Ireland economy sinks into a mess, the nationalist community didn't vote for these guys and never agreed with anything they've ever said. So, who knows how that will play out, particularly without any kind of functional assembly. The pragmatic side of unionism really needed to be there and so did Stormont.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 02:26PM

rob316 wrote: »

No deal is the default option, it can't actually be taken off the table, can it?

Yes, it could. Pass a motion/law/resolution which dictates that on 28th, if no WA is in place, the Prime Minister shall revoke A50 unilaterally with the backing of this house.

Job done.

But they are not actually going to do that, as far as I can tell.

Inquitus · 13-03-2019 02:29PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, it could. Pass a motion/law/resolution which dictates that on 28th, if no WA is in place, the Prime Minister shall revoke A50 unilaterally with the backing of this house.

Job done.

But they are not actually going to do that, as far as I can tell.

If Hungary, Italy or Poland refuse an extension, at the Leavers / ERG's request, then the HoC will be in a very hard place, No Deal or Revoke A50.

pixelburp · 13-03-2019 02:30PM

Inquitus wrote: »

If Hungary, Italy or Poland refuse an extension, at the Leavers / ERG's request, then the HoC will be in a very hard place, No Deal or Revoke A50.

The idea of parliament simply revoking article 50 feels as disastrous to the political landscape of the UK as a no deal crash out. Everyone with vested interests - political or financial - in Brexit will be up in arms and the turmoil would be ugly.

Quin_Dub · 13-03-2019 02:31PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, it could. Pass a motion/law/resolution which dictates that on 28th, if no WA is in place, the Prime Minister shall revoke A50 unilaterally with the backing of this house.

Job done.

But they are not actually going to do that, as far as I can tell.

While they'll vote against a nebulous "No-deal" exit proposal , would they actually vote for the above if it was put on the table?

Surely the ERG at least would vote against it and how many of Labour would support such a deal?

Russman · 13-03-2019 02:37PM

Inquitus wrote: »

If Hungary, Italy or Poland refuse an extension, at the Leavers / ERG's request, then the HoC will be in a very hard place, No Deal or Revoke A50.

It could bring May's Deal Part 3 back into play, but it also might, finally, focus their minds enough to realise the cliff edge they're on and they might see sense and revoke A50.

Although how I think it will ultimately play out is May's deal is passed with hours to go to the deadline, and a short extension is granted to enable bills to be passed. She's determined to wait them out and there's nothing to stop her.

Infini · 13-03-2019 02:42PM

pixelburp wrote: »

The idea of parliament simply revoking article 50 feels as disastrous to the political landscape of the UK as a no deal crash out. Everyone with vested interests - political or financial - in Brexit will be up in arms and the turmoil would be ugly.

Doesnt matter to be honest. No Deal is THE ultimate failure of government if allowed to happen. That it was allowed to get to this stage is wholly down to the sheer evasiveness to take any responsibility in this whole mess. When it comes down to it if they cancel A50 its because between that and no deal its better to bite that bullet and face down the idiots and wasters like farage than a situation like no deal that sees them lose control of the whole situation entirely.

The irony of course is the Brexiteers have tried using no deal to threaten the EU but now they'll find themselves facing it instead and the key point is that if they choose it, are made to vote to choose it they're gonna be the ones responsible for any fallout from it because they choose that road and ignored the warnings.

Shelga · 13-03-2019 02:43PM

If they revoke article 50 because they have no other choice, I fully expect it to be spun by the Brexit headbangers as “the EU wouldn’t let us leave, someone else would have done it better” etc etc.

Taking an extremely long term view of the UK political landscape, ie the next 20-30 years, it really might be better if they crash out with no deal.

jmayo · 13-03-2019 02:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Exactly, unless they vote to accept a "no Deal", there isn't a deal, but a "no deal" is a deal, to leave without a deal.

My head is starting to melt...

blanch152 wrote: »

What about trucks heading over one of the other 299 crossings?

Will those watching be relying on CCTV cameras that can be protected from the work of good republicans?

Ehh if NI diverges from EU standards then you will have to have border controls with people.
One instance of this is to carry out checks on animals being imported into EU which has to carried out by actually accredited Vetinary inspectors at designated inspection posts.

There is no electronic alternative and there probably never will.

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Is it paranoia or stupidity? I can't tell at this stage.

DUP's Sammy Wilson hits back at Civil Service head

https://www.itv.com/news/utv/2019-03-06/dups-sammy-wilson-hits-back-at-civil-service-head/

Actually the aforementioned Sylvia Hermon is the only logical voice in Westminster for the vast majority of NI citizens, be they nationalist or unionist.

Anteayer · 13-03-2019 02:56PM

Is this vote at about 7pm again or do we have any idea when it's happening?

Infini · 13-03-2019 02:57PM

Shelga wrote: »

If they revoke article 50 because they have no other choice, I fully expect it to be spun by the Brexit headbangers as “the EU wouldn’t let us leave, someone else would have done it better” etc etc.

Taking an extremely long term view of the UK political landscape, ie the next 20-30 years, it really might be better if they crash out with no deal.

Unless of course they start serious investigations into some of these as likely theyre Russian stooges and its pretty well theorised they used Brexit as a trial run for Prssident Trolls election. Brexit as a policy is a failure the simple truth is were approaching the end of this farce and likely it will be the gun pointed at parliment as they could find themselves choosing no deal or a50 cancellation in the final week. Theres no accepting the deal and they've been full warned of the consequences of crashing out. They also havent got a hope of an extention without a valid reason so the only Out they have left is to end this farce and cancel A50 and take a long look in the mirror as the games up.

Quin_Dub · 13-03-2019 03:01PM

It seems to me that the only logical pathway out of this is to revoke Article 50 and commit to a 2nd Referendum to clarify the "will of the people".

It would mean the collapse of the current government almost certainly , but it's the only thing that makes any kind of sense right now.

Which means it will not happen, sadly

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 03:02PM

RTÉ narrative today is the tariffs released by the UK is a "bombshell", both on the 1 o'clock news and the bit of bloody Liveline I heard.

At least Michael Martin on the 1 news said its not a bombshell, they've been expecting it for a year or two.

mayo.mick · 13-03-2019 03:11PM

I think we'll start to see the language used by EU and Ireland get a little *stronger* over the coming days!

I'm also wondering, how the heck have the EU negotiating team held their temper with all the carry on by the UK up till now. Wonder if they have a big party planned for Friday night the 29th of March!

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1105740627411697664

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 03:21PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

It seems to me that the only logical pathway out of this is to revoke Article 50 and commit to a 2nd Referendum to clarify the "will of the people".

It would mean the collapse of the current government almost certainly , but it's the only thing that makes any kind of sense right now.

Which means it will not happen, sadly

and if the will of the people is still to leave - then what?

We're back to 2016 with no idea what 'leave' means.

seamus · 13-03-2019 03:23PM

pixelburp wrote: »

The idea of parliament simply revoking article 50 feels as disastrous to the political landscape of the UK as a no deal crash out. Everyone with vested interests - political or financial - in Brexit will be up in arms and the turmoil would be ugly.

It's the choice between political turmoil or economic turmoil.

And since the salaries of the people making the choices are dependent on political stability, it seems obvious that they'll save their own skins over their voters'.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 03:24PM

pixelburp wrote: »

The idea of parliament simply revoking article 50 feels as disastrous to the political landscape of the UK as a no deal crash out.

No Deal Brexit will be disastrous for the people of the UK - like some of them will die for lack of needed meds, many more will be pushed into poverty, racism and xenophobia will get a boost, young people will have their horizons narrowed to a single isolated country in recession.

Utter misery.

If a few people at Westminster have to fall on their swords to prevent this (aka disaster on the political landscape) then I say good.

ToBeFrank123 · 13-03-2019 03:33PM

Is there any point to an extension?

Is there a majority in the HoC for a second referendum?

Will May risk another GE? Will the EU allow her do this? A 6 month extension would facilitate it.

Is there any way to deselect ERG candidates for a GE?

Would a GE produce a clear Tory majority? Or would that majority contain the same ERG deadenders? And if so, could they be whipped?

A lot of questions to be answered.

Leroy42 · 13-03-2019 03:38PM

AS a person pointed out (can't recall where, could have been a poster on here, a radio show or whatever) just the simple fact that so many people have had to endure the uncertainty of it all is shameful.

Not knowing if you will have access to the medications you need to live come April is massively stressful. Not knowing if you will be able to continue to live in the Costa Del Spain and continue to avail of medical treatment. Not knowing whether you business will still be able to operate.

To put so many people through such stress on the basis on a political game is unconscionable.

Sure, Toyota, Airbus etc, they will all be fine in the grand scheme of things. But Mary in Hull who needs cancer treatment, Joe and Joanne Normal who moved to Spain because of his arthritis and are in negative equity so can't afford to move back.

They are the real losers, and the forgotten people in all of this.

murphaph · 13-03-2019 03:39PM

Surely a short extension up to before the Euparl elections even without a "plan" being put forward would actually suit the EU also, to have a bit more time to get no deal measures in place. Purely for practical reasons.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 03:40PM

lawred2 wrote: »

and if the will of the people is still to leave - then what?

There is only one deal on the table - May's deal. The referendum will be Remain or take the Deal.

Leroy42 · 13-03-2019 03:41PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Is there any point to an extension?

Is there a majority in the HoC for a second referendum?

Will May risk another GE? Will the EU allow her do this? A 6 month extension would facilitate it.

Is there any way to deselect ERG candidates for a GE?

Would a GE produce a clear Tory majority? Or would that majority contain the same ERG deadenders? And if so, could they be whipped?

A lot of questions to be answered.

But they need to start at least asking the questions. If there a majority for a 2nd Ref? No, but that was when all options were on the table, when the great idea that Eu would cave was/is still alive. What about on 29th March when there is nothing but a cliff edge?

The problem is that the UK have simply avoided asking themselves any questions, instead seemingly happy to simply stick to 'will of the people' and other lines that fail to take any account of changing realities.

robinph · 13-03-2019 03:41PM

lawred2 wrote: »

and if the will of the people is still to leave - then what?

We're back to 2016 with no idea what 'leave' means.

But we do now know what leave means, it's the deal that the EU has offered. Put that to the people and see what they think of it. If after all this time they still decide that they would prefer that deal to remain then so be it.

I'll be annoyed with the idiocy of my country people, but I'll at least know they they were voting for an actual thing rather than an idea of a theory of potentially a unicorn.

20silkcut · 13-03-2019 03:46PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

AS a person pointed out (can't recall where, could have been a poster on here, a radio show or whatever) just the simple fact that so many people have had to endure the uncertainty of it all is shameful.

Not knowing if you will have access to the medications you need to live come April is massively stressful. Not knowing if you will be able to continue to live in the Costa Del Spain and continue to avail of medical treatment. Not knowing whether you business will still be able to operate.

To put so many people through such stress on the basis on a political game is unconscionable.

Sure, Toyota, Airbus etc, they will all be fine in the grand scheme of things. But Mary in Hull who needs cancer treatment, Joe and Joanne Normal who moved to Spain because of his arthritis and are in negative equity so can't afford to move back.

They are the real losers, and the forgotten people in all of this.

But still the opinion polls are showing in the 40’s for both leave and remain with a large cohort of undecided.
If that was reflected in the HOC it would be frighteningly close tonight.
A 2nd referendum would be real seat of the pants stuff.
Joe Duffy currently really raising the prospect of the Government relenting on the backstop.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 03:48PM

robinph wrote: »

But we do now know what leave means, it's the deal that the EU has offered. Put that to the people and see what they think of it. If after all this time they still decide that they would prefer that deal to remain then so be it.

I'll be annoyed with the idiocy of my country people, but I'll at least know they they were voting for an actual thing rather than an idea of a theory of potentially a unicorn.

And it has roundly been defeated in Parliament twice. How then could Parliament turn around and offer what they have rejected twice to the people? It's a no deal for sure then.

It's also worth saying that that deal was a consequence of May's red lines which were plucked for the ERG's backside... The UK could leave on far better terms than that deal.

Laois_Man · 13-03-2019 03:50PM

lawred2 wrote: »

and if the will of the people is still to leave - then what?

We're back to 2016 with no idea what 'leave' means.

The ballot paper in any new referendum would have to present options of stay and leave - but this time, ask for further specificity from leave voters as to what what "leave" they want - no deal exit, or the WA

13-03-2019 03:55PM

lawred2 wrote: »

And it has roundly been defeated in Parliament twice. How then could Parliament turn around and offer what they have rejected twice to the people? It's a no deal for sure then.

It's also worth saying that that deal was a consequence of May's red lines which were plucked for the ERG's backside... The UK could leave on far better terms than that deal.

It's been rejected by disparate grouos with their own agendas, specifically those misrepresenting what the possible views of the previous referendum were.
Leave means leave, but with a Norway deal, no deal, Swiss deal, May deal... Etc?

tuxy · 13-03-2019 03:55PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

The ballot paper in any new referendum would have to present options of stay and leave - but this time, ask for further specificity from leave voters as to what what "leave" they want - no deal exit, or the WA

Too complicated for the UK electorate, remember David Cameron campaigned that the alternative voting system was too complicated and 68% of voters agreed with him back in 2011.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 03:55PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

The ballot paper in any new referendum would have to present options of stay and leave - but this time, ask for further specificity from leave voters as to what what "leave" they want - no deal exit, or the WA

there can be other withdrawal agreements

this is TM's WA and has no popular support either in Parliament or publicly based on the few polls I've seen..

A GE and a Labour government could see an entirely more agreeable WA

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments