Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

So... is the plan this?

1. reject No-Deal.
2. Extension gets rejected or accepted.
3. Vote either May-Deal (with some small change if there is an extension?) or revoke A50.

Result - feck knows.

First Up wrote: »

NI is not a separate jurisdiction. It is part of the UK and will be treated as such by WTO. Unless there are procedures between NI and Britain of course, which remains the most practical solution outside of the whole UK being in a CU

D'you know what? I think Theresa May has already started the process of shafting of the DUP. Revenge served cold.

As discussed above, this new 12-month no/low tariff regime is of very little importance in the grand scheme of things, except for one corner of the UK. While a steel manufacturer in India or a gagdet maker in China or a sweat-shop knicker-weaver in Bangladesh will be too far away or tied into existing arrangements to exploit the NI back door, there's one group of home-grown ... entrepreneurs :rolleyes: who will be agile and crafty enough to exploit it.

Now the UK says publicly they're not going to impose checks on the NI-RoI border, and they're not going to even try collecting import duties - but will check and charge duties on goods entering GB.

The Government insists that this will not create a border down the Irish Sea, as there will be no checks on goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
Instead, normal compliance and intelligence methods will be used to detect any traders attempting to abuse the system.

Well, the only way they're going to be able to apply "normal compliance and intelligence methods" will be to have checks on trade across the Irish Sea, meaning anyone wanting to manipulate the situation to their advantage only has to ensure that a sufficient number of abuses are discovered to require HMRC to carry out more and more checks, until an effective hard border is created between NI and GB.

If I was a member of the DUP, I would be very worried by this sudden change in the wind, as summarised by the Belfast Telegraph headline
Northern Ireland 'wild west of UK' - PM's no-deal Brexit plan treats region differently to Britain

CelticRambler wrote: »

D'you know what? I think Theresa May has already started the process of shafting of the DUP. Revenge served cold.

As discussed above, this new 12-month no/low tariff regime is of very little importance in the grand scheme of things, except for one corner of the UK. While a steel manufacturer in India or a gagdet maker in China or a sweat-shop knicker-weaver in Bangladesh will be too far away or tied into existing arrangements to exploit the NI back door, there's one group of ... entrepreneurs :rolleyes: who will be agile and crafty enough to exploit it.

Now the UK says publicly they're not going to impose checks on the NI-RoI border, and they're not going to even try collecting import duties - but will check and charge duties on goods entering GB.
Well, the only way they're going to be able to apply "normal compliance and intelligence methods" will be to have checks on trade across the Irish Sea, meaning anyone wanting to manipulate the situation to their advantage only has to ensure that a sufficient number of abuses are discovered to require the HMRC to carry out more and more checks, until an effective hard border is created between NI and GB.

If I was a member of the DUP, I would be very worried by this sudden change in the wind, as summarised by the Belfast Telegraph headline
Northern Ireland 'wild west of UK' - PM's no-deal Brexit plan treats region differently to Britain

As has already been noted the goods will still be dutied on import to the EU, so there is no change for the UK in that regard.

Hurrache wrote: »

Just in case anyone over there missed his spoken interviews, Verhofstadt tweets it for emphasis.

https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1105784292553211907

Pretty clear from that alone that an extention isnt happening unless theres a significant development in Westminster. Basically walk GB or Quit this nonsense already.

Inquitus wrote: »

As has already been noted the goods will still be dutied on import to the EU, so there is no change for the UK in that regard.

That's not the point. Anyone can import selected goods into NI at a rate different to that which would apply in GB. There only needs to be a significant volume of dubious transfers from NI to GB to trigger additional controls on that trade. There's one side of the political divide in NI who would see that as an easy way to get one over on their opponents. The monetary value of the exercise would be irrelevant.

I really don't understand the No Deal vote tonight. No Deal happens by default if they can't agree something. Are they really wasting time and energy to vote on something that will happen anyway if they can't agree on what should happen next?

What's the point? All it's poised to do is humiliate them as there's a strong chance they'll vote to say they don't want to proceed with a No Deal scenario, and then by March 29th when they can't agree on an alternative, that's exactly what will happen anyway. Or, they apply for an extension which would have to be on the basis of a second referendum or a general election. Both of which could still end up with a No Deal scenario anyway.

This is ending up becoming an even greater clusterf*ck than I think most even thought it might.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

re: HMRC not checking goods entering NI
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-businesses-have-been-hung-out-to-dry-industry-leaders-1.3824145

So let me get this straight,

brexiteers have claimed that the EU would throw Ireland under a bus, which did not happen, if anything EU repeteadly stood up for us

While here we have UK throwing NI under the bus

Madness.

In this this new arrangement is there any legal impediment to an Irish exporter sending their good to the UK market via NI
I would imagine there been massive logistical issues, but would it be unlawful.

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

re: HMRC not checking goods entering NI
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/northern-businesses-have-been-hung-out-to-dry-industry-leaders-1.3824145

So let me get this straight,

brexiteers have claimed that the EU would throw Ireland under a bus, which did not happen, if anything EU repeteadly stood up for us

While here we have UK throwing NI under the bus

Given the tariff schedule, it's more like the UK throwing itself under the bus.

I feel like the only one who sees tonight's vote as an important exercise. It is phenomenally historic if tonight's vote results in majority support for no deal. NO deal Exit will be so, as per T May's statement last night.

That being extremely unlikely, it is still worthwhile to have a formally recorded vote as to how many MPs want to avoid a "no deal" - as of now, it is untested formally and having the view confirmed does play a useful part in setting the path forward.

Amazingly, on Sky News, they still have Brexiteers going on about having to keep "no deal" on the table as it is needed for a stronger negotiating position. When will these pillocks get it thru their head....THERE ARE NO, AND WILL BE NO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS HAPPENING!!

prawnsambo wrote: »

There's a more comprehensive list here. Gives commodity codes and breaks it down by product.

Some issues trying to figure it out because you have things like this:


I'm assuming the 6.8 is a percentage, otherwise it doesn't make sense to separate it out.

Edit: And now there's a spreadsheet for your ease of use.

Is that a list of exceptions to the zero-tariffs? I.e., if it's not on the list, I can export tariff-free to the UK? Because if so, the Brits can continue to drink continental beers, wines and spirits (other than rum) at no extra charge.

But I thought the Brexiteers said that France (amongst others) would be demanding a great FTA to save their wine producers, and Spain would want one to save their tomato growers? And now the UK is going to give them unconditional free access to the UK market because ... they need us more than we need them???

How many feet does the UK have left to shoot?