Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Leroy42 · 13-03-2019 10:34AM

First Up wrote: »

Yes, I know how trade works but I'd be surprised if the UK would turn a blind eye to sealed Chinese containers being opened in Newry, re-branded and shipped to Britain. (The WTO wouldn't be happy about it either.)

But they just released a report saying that is exactly what they are planning to do.

If they won't be checking anything at the border, then how can they possibly know?

First Up · 13-03-2019 10:36AM

LeinsterDub wrote:

It's a side deal with Ireland. By your logic South Africa could unilaterally not man is border with Namibia. This isn't the case. The UK have applied a 0 % tariff to trade with Ireland.

Correct and under WTO rules, a zero tariff within Ireland counts as zero tariff bewteen the EU and UK.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 10:36AM

axer wrote: »

Do not feel sorry for her. She took Cameron's bag of crap and turned into a permanent sack of crap. She divided the country even further through her behaviour, she emboldened the Brexiteers and has turned a bad mess that was possibly resolvable through consensus building across the country and across parties to one that looks impossible to resolve in the short and maybe even medium term. If she had even just stepped down a year ago it would have given some opportunity for a real leader to have a shot at it but instead she dug deeper making the sack of crap even stinkier.

any suggestions?

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 10:37AM

First Up wrote: »

Correct and under WTO rules, a zero tariff within Ireland counts as zero tariff bewteen the EU and UK.

and the ROTW no?

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 10:38AM

The vote tomorrow to see if they should ask for an extension may be pointless as Barnier has said [paraphrase] "Why extend the negotiations? It's over.".

13-03-2019 10:39AM

https://twitter.com/mattfrei/status/1105763717587914753

EU not favourable for an extension so British politicians can merely continue to squabble about all this.

First Up · 13-03-2019 10:41AM

Leroy42 wrote:

If they won't be checking anything at the border, then how can they possibly know?

Watching truckloads of sealed containers heading up the M1 and being unloaded at a big warehouse in Newry might give them a clue. They are not blind you know - and neither is the EU or WTO.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 10:41AM

Keyzer wrote: »

I honestly feel sympathy for May - she inherited this bag of crap from Cameron.

True, but then she immediately set it on fire and sat on it, which kind of limits my sympathy for her.

First Up · 13-03-2019 10:42AM

lawred2 wrote:

and the ROTW no?

By extension, yes.

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 10:42AM

nemefuria wrote: »

If there is zero tariffs on beef going from Ireland into NI, wouldn't WTO Most Favoured Nation rule kick in so Brazil can demand its beef be allowed into NI tariff-free? Or could the temporary nature of the arrangement circumvent MFN?

Brazilian beef will be allowed in tariff-free, provided it is imported across the land border with Ireland.

First Up · 13-03-2019 10:43AM

Peregrinus wrote:

Brazilian beef will be allowed in tariff-free, provided it is imported across the land border with Ireland.

After it has paid EU import tariffs and passed EU inspection on arrival in Ireland.

coolshannagh28 · 13-03-2019 10:44AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But they just released a report saying that is exactly what they are planning to do.

If they won't be checking anything at the border, then how can they possibly know?

This is essentially what happens at the moment , Illegality is monitored by a roving customs so I imagine that their presence would be stepped up particularly on the Irish sea which could become the de facto border , Logistics would limit the amount of trade possible.

blanch152 · 13-03-2019 10:44AM

First Up wrote: »

Watching truckloads of sealed containers heading up the M1 and being unloaded at a big warehouse in Newry might give them a clue. They are not blind you know - and neither is the EU or WTO.

What about trucks heading over one of the other 299 crossings?

Will those watching be relying on CCTV cameras that can be protected from the work of good republicans?

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 10:44AM

First Up wrote: »

Yes, I know how trade works but I'd be surprised if the UK would turn a blind eye to sealed Chinese containers being opened in Newry, re-branded and shipped to Britain. (The WTO wouldn't be happy about it either.)

None of this would be necessary. The Chinese goods will be lawfully imported into the UK across the Irish border. Because they have been imported across the Irish border, no tariffs apply, so there is no need for concealment, evasion, relabeling, etc; this will be entirely legit. The question of turning a "blind eye" to it won't arise; there is nothing improper going on.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 10:47AM

blanch152 wrote: »

What about trucks heading over one of the other 299 crossings?

Will those watching be relying on CCTV cameras that can be protected from the work of good republicans?

You must be in triple figures with your 'good republicans' jibe. Must be frustrating not getting the bites you would have been hoping for.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 10:47AM

Russman wrote: »

But, in terms of the optics of it at least, won't it then appear that its Ireland who is "putting up" a border ? I know most people will be sensible enough to know the truth of the matter, but the UK will be able to claim its the EU/Irl who want a border bla, bla, bla.......

If they crash out, it is no longer our problem who the gutter press in the UK blame for stuff, anymore than we care about what Fox News says about the EU in America. Here is the number of an office in Brussels where someone is paid to care about that.

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 10:48AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

It's a side deal with Ireland. By your logic South Africa could unilaterally not man is border with Namibia. This isn't the case. The UK have applied a 0 % tariff to trade with Ireland.

It's not a side deal with Ireland; it's a unilateral measure adopted by the UK. And it's not a 0% tariff to trade with Ireland; it's a 0% tariff to trade with the whole world, provided that trade is routed across the UK's border in NI.

An Irish exporter and a Chinese exporter will get exactly the same treatment. If they send their goods to Liverpool, a tariff will be charged. But if they send them to Newry (entering across the land border) no tariff will be charged.

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 10:49AM

First Up wrote: »

Correct and under WTO rules, a zero tariff within Ireland counts as zero tariff bewteen the EU and UK.

It's not a zero tariff "within Ireland"; its a zero tariff on all goods crossing the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland. The zero tariff applies regardless of the origin of the goods.

ancapailldorcha · 13-03-2019 10:50AM

blanch152 wrote: »

What about trucks heading over one of the other 299 crossings?

Will those watching be relying on CCTV cameras that can be protected from the work of good republicans?

One more jibe and you're getting a ban.

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 10:51AM

First Up wrote: »

After it has paid EU import tariffs and passed EU inspection on arrival in Ireland.

Are we going around in circles here? I've already pointed out, and you have already accepted, that goods can be transported through the EU without paying EU tariffs or meeting EU market requirements.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 10:51AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's not a zero tariff "within Ireland"; its a zero tariff on all goods crossing the border from Ireland to Northern Ireland. The zero tariff applies regardless of the origin of the goods.

The M1 could get very busy then. This could be a boom time for Irish logistics, importers and haulage firms.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 10:53AM

lawred2 wrote: »

This could be a boom time for Irish logistics, importers and haulage firms.

Except the NI based ones, who don't have licenses to operate in the EU, they are going out of business.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 10:54AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Except the NI based ones, who don't have licenses to operate in the EU, they are going out of business.

Better start advocating for a border poll then

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 10:55AM

lawred2 wrote: »

The M1 could get very busy then. This could be a boom time for Irish logistics, importers and haulage firms.

This is actually going to be the limiting factor; there's limited capacity at Irish (and NI) ports and on roads, etc, and a finite amount of trucks, ships and railway cars. The proposed arrangement creates huge incentives for UK importers to reroute their supplies through Ireland and NI, but they'll be competing for limited logistical capacity. If this was going to be a long-term arrangement it would be profitable to invest to build up logistical capacity hugely, but the UK have only announced it for 12 months (and frankly I doubt if it is sustainable even for that long).

Macy0161 · 13-03-2019 10:55AM

Keyzer wrote: »

What an utter shambles - the sheer arrogance from the UK politicians is astounding. Corbyn is a disgrace, he's like a petulant child at this stage. I'd love to see him come up with a plan that would work.

Labour have had a plan for months, and been consistent on that (if not the referendum). There's been no engagement by May, as it includes a Customs Union, which is one of her self imposed red lines.

The EU would reopen negotiations with the UK with a change of red lines, which Labour would by default change. I believe that's what Labour were effectively told by the EU.

Basically, theres much wrong with labour as an opposition, but they have offered an alternative - the spin they haven't offered anything, is just tory spin.

Roger_007 · 13-03-2019 10:55AM

I've never heard any of the hard brexiteers explain why it is preferable to be a relatively small player in WTO than being a big player in the EU. Do they think that operating under WTO rules is the equivalent of doing whatever they like? Do they not realise that there are much more powerful players than them, (US, China, EU etc), at the WTO table.
They are like stroppy teenagers who can't get on with their parents and storm out of the home only to discover that their newfound freedom is not as free as they expected.

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 10:58AM

Macy0161 wrote: »

Labour have had a plan for months, and been consistent on that (if not the referendum). There's been no engagement by May, as it includes a Customs Union, which is one of her self imposed red lines.

The EU would reopen negotiations with the UK with a change of red lines, which Labour would by default change. I believe that's what Labour were effectively told by the EU.

Basically, theres much wrong with labour as an opposition, but they have offered an alternative - the spin they haven't offered anything, is just tory spin.

There plan as announced so far seems just as cakeist as the Tory's - they want a customs union, but the freedom to strike their own trade deals. That's not a serious proposal.

They get cut some slack because they're in opposition, and an opposition doesn't have quite the same obligation to realism that a government does. But if they wanted to contrast themselves with the Tories, and present as a party with a credible, deliverable plan, they wouldn't be touting the plan they're currently touting.

josip · 13-03-2019 10:59AM

lawred2 wrote: »

The M1 could get very busy then. This could be a boom time for Irish logistics, importers and haulage firms.

If Ireland will become a transit route then we really have to look at moving it by rail from Dublin port directly to Newry/Larne since most of it presumably will be leaving NI.
Congesting the M1 with additional trucks isn't the kind of low margin business we should be targeting.

First Up · 13-03-2019 10:59AM

Peregrinus wrote:

None of this would be necessary. The Chinese goods will be lawfully imported into the UK across the Irish border. Because they have been imported across the Irish border, no tariffs apply, so there is no need for concealment, evasion, relabeling, etc; this will be entirely legit. The question of turning a "blind eye" to it won't arise; there is nothing improper going on.

Creating a channel to bypass international trade agreements is very improper indeed.

13-03-2019 11:00AM

Deleted User wrote: »

https://twitter.com/mattfrei/status/1105763717587914753

EU not favourable for an extension so British politicians can merely continue to squabble about all this.

Guy Verhofstadt again. Even clearer than before. Hopefully its focusing some minds in London.

https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/1105768400180137985

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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