Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 04:25AM

tuxy wrote: »

Prediction, May flies to Brusels on Friday and asks for an extension, the EU will ask why they need it.
May will say that's a great questions! Let me go back to the HOC and ask, I'll be back again in about a week.
Poor Juncker probably has to drink himself into a drunken stupor to deal with these meeting, will his liver hold out?

Not really Juncker's problem. He's the President of the Commission, but granting or denying an A50 extension is a matter for the Council, not the Commission. Mrs May should apply herself to the President of the Council, one Tusk, D. Of course her application will be a teeny bit more credible if it comes with the backing of the Commission negotiators, but Barnier, M is probably the key guy here, more than Juncker, J-C.

Tusk can't deliver it either. It requires unanimous consent of the member state governments. Some of those, incuding Ireland, can be taken for granted, but others not so much. Macron, E may feel that enough European time, effort, energy and attention has been devoted to the UK's self-inflicted whingefest already, and may require some persuading that there is any merit in a proposal to defer the inevitable. And he may not be alone.

Jim2007 · 13-03-2019 05:04AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I live on the border, it will be like the old days again. They will come from Galway Cork, Derry, Londonderry etc and all over to smuggle. It still happens as it is btw.

Nope it will not be like the old days! It will be an EU external border and run like the rest - concentrate on HGVs and ignore the rest. A bit of smuggling, who cares, it is not intended to be a revenue generating exercise.

Half Switzerland cross over into Germany very weekend to fill up car boots and trailers every Saturday and the customs guards just wave you through. The biggest issue is usually trying to find a custom office to stamp a VAT claim.

The Swiss situation is very similar to NI. We are not in the CU or the SM, but do have FMOP. NI will not be in the CU or SM but will have the CTA.

tuxy · 13-03-2019 05:13AM

Jim2007 wrote: »

The Swiss situation is very similar to NI. We are not in the CU or the SM, but do have FMOP. NI will not be in the CU or SM but will have the CTA.

Switzerland have copied many provisions of European Union law and has many trade deals with the EU.
This allows them to be more lax without compromising the single market.
It's highly unlikely that any country would ever achieve such a deal from the EU again and even if it was possible it would take decades to negotiate.
It would also break two of Mays red lines with regard to regularity alignment and financial contribution.

volchitsa · 13-03-2019 07:51AM

tuxy wrote: »

Switzerland have copied many provisions of European Union law and has many trade deals with the EU.
This allows them to be more lax without compromising the single market.
It's highly unlikely that any country would ever achieve such a deal from the EU again and even if it was possible it would take decades to negotiate.
It would also break two of Mays red lines with regard to regularity alignment and financial contribution.

As I recall Switzerland got a sweetheart deal because it was assumed they would soon be joining anyway (Norway may have had a similar assumption playing in to their negotiations at some point but I'm not certain of that).

In any case there will clearly be no such positive emotions underpinning any UK talks. They will be proper third country negotiations, like Canada or Japan.

Infini · 13-03-2019 07:52AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

60 odd pages since I last checked this.. What's the feeling in here about how things will pan out? Surprised she lost the vote so badly.

To be fair it shouldnt be a suprise though, the whole lot of em over there are utterly incompetent right now and are only willing to talk shíte rather than show any sort of leadership. Brexit is a failure in every respect and if they had any cop on they should have cancelled it simply because they have no credible plan to achieve it without severe damage to themselves and those pushing it are corrupt with clearly dubious motives.

Im also of the opinion they should deny the UK an extention not out of malice but because this whole time they've played games with everyone and by forcing them to decide one and for all they'll finally be pushed to take responsibility for a creature of their own making and the consequences of their decision.

Akrasia · 13-03-2019 08:41AM

tuxy wrote: »

Prediction, May flies to Brusels on Friday and asks for an extension, the EU will ask why they need it.
May will say that's a great questions! Let me go back to the HOC and ask, I'll be back again in about a week.
Poor Juncker probably has to drink himself into a drunken stupor to deal with these meeting, will his liver hold out?

I think the EU negotiators will head her off at the pass by releasing a statement immediately after the vote on Thursday

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 08:47AM

I think the EU should give them a short extension to see what happens, costs us very little, and then (when nothing happens) offer them a 2 year extension to sort their sh!t out.

No negotiations with the EU during that time, the negotiations are over. The options are the WA as negotiated, No Deal or No Brexit, and we'll await their decision in 18 months time, with 6 months to implement it.

Hold an election, hold another referendum, hold a revolution - whatever you like, not our problem. Just come back in September 2020 with a final decision.

Meanwhile, we'll polish those No Deal preparations just in case.

Akrasia · 13-03-2019 08:49AM

Infini wrote: »

To be fair it shouldnt be a suprise though, the whole lot of em over there are utterly incompetent right now and are only willing to talk shíte rather than show any sort of leadership. Brexit is a failure in every respect and if they had any cop on they should have cancelled it simply because they have no credible plan to achieve it without severe damage to themselves and those pushing it are corrupt with clearly dubious motives.

Im also of the opinion they should deny the UK an extention not out of malice but because this whole time they've played games with everyone and by forcing them to decide one and for all they'll finally be pushed to take responsibility for a creature of their own making and the consequences of their decision.

Calling their bluff certainly is a valid action given that it was the UK who deliberately kept threatening to leave with no deal. The thing is, it would also harm the EU, and the EU doesn't do self harm like the UK does

Valhallapt · 13-03-2019 08:50AM

U.K. announce there will be no tariffs on products coming from Ireland to NI. But this will not be the case for goods flowing the other way! Surely this will decimate NI manufacturing, big reduction on where they can sell their goods, but can be flooded by goods from Ireland. To ensure goods from Ireland don’t enter Britain via NI there will need to be checks on Irish Sea. The DUP have decimated NI economy and ended up with a kinda border in the Irish Sea!

Valhallapt · 13-03-2019 08:52AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

U.K. announce there will be no tariffs on products coming from Ireland to NI. But this will not be the case for goods flowing the other way! Surely this will decimate NI manufacturing, big reduction on where they can sell their goods, but can be flooded by goods from Ireland. To ensure goods from Ireland don’t enter Britain via NI there will need to be checks on Irish Sea. The DUP have decimated NI economy and ended up with a kinda border in the Irish Sea!

I guess this is a plan to bounce the DUP into supporting the deal third time around

ilovesmybrick · 13-03-2019 08:53AM

Tariff rates have been released:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1105727511634284544

(Apologies if the link doesn't work right, my internet has gone to s**t for some reason and won't load twitter properly!)

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 08:54AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

U.K. announce there will be no tariffs on products coming from Ireland to NI.

In the case of No Deal, that is. Which, even if it happens, can't last more than a few weeks before the UK goes up in flames, so not really a big concern for us.

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 08:55AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think the EU should give them a short extension to see what happens, costs us very little, and then (when nothing happens) offer them a 2 year extension to sort their sh!t out.

Technical problem here. If the UK is going to be a member after 22 May, then they have to hold EP elections. But that's not a decision they can make on 21 May; elections take time to prepare, democracy requires a campaigning period, and (I think) some relevant legislation which has been repealed will need to be re-enacted. So decisions about offering/accepting a long extension (as in, running beyound 22 May) have to be made well in advance of 22 May. Like now, really.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

No negotiations with the EU during that time, the negotiations are over. The options are the WA as negotiated, No Deal or No Brexit, and we'll await their decision in 18 months time, with 6 months to implement it.

Well, hold on. If there is a shift in political thinking in the UK and a genuine attempt to build some kind of consensus for a model of brexiting, that would be for a much softer Brexit than is currently proposed. There's no reason why the EU would want to rule out that possiblity and say "No, you can have May's hard brexit or a crash-out Brexit, but you can't have a soft Brexit". So I think the EU would want to say something like "There will be no further negotiations, unless the UK relaxes or abandons its red lines. And, even then, the further negotations will be about the Political Declaration, not the Withdrawal Agreement."

First Up · 13-03-2019 08:56AM

UK Revenue have effectively said the Irish border is too hard and they have bounced it - and the potential ramifications - back to the politicians.

RGS · 13-03-2019 08:57AM

It appears that HMG have decided NI will be treated differently from the rest of the UK in a no deal Brexit.
The backstop was rejected for that exact reason.
I presume sammy will be out objecting to this plan.

Fr Tod Umptious · 13-03-2019 08:57AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

I guess this is a plan to bounce the DUP into supporting the deal third time around

But there is no third time round.

Unless it's in 2 years time after an extension where the WA is not reopened and stays the same.

You could not make this stuff up it's so bizzare.

Backstop by default based on the tarrif news as the previous poster pointed out

The Remainers have turned into Leavers (on their support for the WA just to get on with it) and the Leavers are the Remainers by rejecting the WA and thus Brexit when it was right there in front of them.

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 09:00AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

And, even then, the further negotations will be about the Political Declaration, not the Withdrawal Agreement."

The Political Declaration is just waffle. The WA is the WA, if you ratify it, the Future Relationship is completely negotiable.

But no further negotiations until you ratify the WA or crash out, and none needed if you revoke A50.

lawred2 · 13-03-2019 09:01AM

RGS wrote: »

It appears that HMG have decided NI will be treated differently from the rest of the UK in a no deal Brexit.
The backstop was rejected for that exact reason.
I presume sammy will be out objecting to this plan.

Sammy wants a hard border and the dissolution of the GFA. Doesn't give a hoot about anything else.

Beechwoodspark · 13-03-2019 09:05AM

They’d literally love a ten foot wall along the border if it meant annoying SF and of course Dublin.

Giveaway · 13-03-2019 09:06AM

Larbre34 wrote: »

Former Aussie PM Kevin Rudd, writing in the Guardian, has described suggestions by Brexiteers that the Commonwealth provides the opportunity to replace much of the trade that may be lost with the EU as "utter bollocks" and "the nuttiest of many nutty arguments" made by them. While Australia, NZ and Canada would explore any opportunities, their 65 million folk spread out on the far corners of the planet could scarcely compensate for 450 Million on the UK doorstep.

When reminded of India's billion people Rudd said, "good luck with that, they are the most bureaucratic, mercantilist and protectionist of the lot"

Trust an Aussie to provide unvarnished reality.

I remember leaving dehli aìrport. At least 3 different security checks(different police forces and army, then customs and immigration. 2 dollars to the porter allowed me to skip all the security checks, which is a bit worrying for an irish lad travelling alone to London

s3rtvdbwfj81ch · 13-03-2019 09:21AM

what would stop unscrupulous people sending lorries to Larne instead of Dublin Port?

LuckyLloyd · 13-03-2019 09:29AM

The Telegraph wrote:

This risks a fundamental asymmetry in the application of tariffs where exports from the UK to the EU will face levies, but not the other way round. Northern Irish businesses therefore will be fundamentally less competitive compared to their Irish counterparts. Urgent talks will be sought to mitigate this in a no-deal scenario.

Goods moving from Northern Ireland to Ireland may therefore still face import taxes levied by Brussels and Dublin.

Analysis of the proposed No Deal arrangements by the Telegraph. More dramatic assessments of how ****ed NI would be in this scenario can be found elsewhere.

To be fair, it allows them to say they intend to keep their ‘No Hard Border’ in NI promise. Let’s see if the DUP still want No Deal on the table after reading that. I somehow doubt it!

Zubeneschamali · 13-03-2019 09:30AM

Nalani Crashing Scabies wrote: »

what would stop unscrupulous people sending lorries to Larne instead of Dublin Port?

A border down the Irish Sea, of course.

13-03-2019 09:48AM

Arlene Foster & the DUP: "we must be treated the same as the rest of the United Kingdom". HM Revenue & Customs this morning: "nah, too difficult". How are Arlene & Co feeling this morning I wonder??

prawnsambo · 13-03-2019 09:50AM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

Tariff rates have been released:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1105727511634284544

(Apologies if the link doesn't work right, my internet has gone to s**t for some reason and won't load twitter properly!)

There's a more comprehensive list here. Gives commodity codes and breaks it down by product.

Some issues trying to figure it out because you have things like this:

02011000 Carcases or half-carcases of bovine animals fresh or chilled 6.8 + 93.3 euros/100kg 097701
Q1: 28,964,400 (kg)
Q2: 29,690,900 (kg)
Q3: 36,146,100 (kg)
Q4: 29,600,100 (kg)

I'm assuming the 6.8 is a percentage, otherwise it doesn't make sense to separate it out.

Edit: And now there's a spreadsheet for your ease of use.

Peregrinus · 13-03-2019 09:52AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The Political Declaration is just waffle. The WA is the WA, if you ratify it, the Future Relationship is completely negotiable.

But no further negotiations until you ratify the WA or crash out, and none needed if you revoke A50.

It's not waffle at all. As you point out, all the big issues that divide Britain over their future relationship with the EU are addressed in the Political Declaration, not the Withdrawal Agreement. Backstop aside, if you think May's Brexit is either too hard or not hard enough, you almost certainly think that because of what's in the PD (or because of what's omitted from it) not what's in the WA.

And while the Pol Dec isn't binding, it is taken very seriously by the EU, and very much conditions the line the EU will take in the coming negotiations. The UK side may be completely cavalier in this regard, but the EU side wil not be. So if you don't like what's in the Pol Dec, that matters.

Christy42 · 13-03-2019 09:55AM

So for high tariff goods the EU gets free trade with the UK (and not the other way around).

I mean if there is no sea border it would legal to have goods go to Northern Ireland tariff free and then send it over to Britain tariff free as well?

Unless there are rules of origin for crossing the Irish sea tariff free then how much work do you need to do to it? Stick it on a NI truck? Add a widget? If more serious will any current NI businesses get caught out as most of their product is imported and they just add the finishing touches?

s3rtvdbwfj81ch · 13-03-2019 09:58AM

Christy42 wrote: »

will any current NI businesses get caught out as most of their product is imported and they just add the finishing touches?

this is it though right? send just finished goods to a "finishing house" in NI, slap a NI sticker on it and send it over.

VinLieger · 13-03-2019 10:01AM

Anyone think its possible that they are gonna push this no tariffs over the border idea just to get the deal across the line and then in 2-3 months turn to the DUP and go "yeah this isnt working were putting a border in the Irish sea"

Hurrache · 13-03-2019 10:01AM

Anyone want to go into business with me exporting cars into the UK via NI?

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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