Where are the electric cars for the masses?

Water John · 24-02-2019 8:47pm

It doesn't happen ATM but one could see a lot of EVs being preset to kick in charging once night rate leecie is available. With the advent of smart metering, with three rates if not 30 min billing this won't be happening.
As it stands plugging in when home, say 6 pm, that worsens peak demand which is between 5 pm and 7 pm. Really should be delayed until later.

pdpmur · 24-02-2019 8:52pm

KCross wrote: »

What you have calculated is the number of cars that can charge at 7kW simultaneously.

What I'm trying to point out is that your statement here is not correct....

1.5GW of spare capacity throughout the 9hrs of off-peak can take ALOT more EV's during off-peak times than you have calculated as you are assuming that everyone starts their charge at the same time and is running for the entire 9hrs of off-peak.... or at least thats what your statement above says.... maybe you didnt mean it that way?

Put another way, you are taking an absolute worst case scenario that 200k EV's start their charge together at midnight. If that happened, then yes you are correct but that isnt how it works in reality... you havent accounted for electrical diversity.

If I went around my house and turned on every appliance I'd blow the house fuse but in reality that doesnt happen either. Devices turn on and off. Similarly, cars will start and finish at various times and run for different lengths of time.

Correct, but most people connect their car when they get home (peak time) and the car timer decides when it starts. Some will start at the very start of off-peak rate. Some let the car decide when to start itself as long as it finishes before the end of off-peak.

e.g. My car finishes every day at 8am. It starts at a different time everyday depending on how low the battery is that day. Some days I have it timed to start at 3am and it could finish at 4am, 5am, 6am etc... again dependent on the SoC of the battery when it started.

The point is all the EV's dont start charging or finish charging at the same time and they crucially dont all require the full 9hrs.

Mass market adoption of electric cars will mean that hundreds of thousands of cars will be charging simultaneously, particularly with the advent of smart metering and variable pricing that will incentivise people to charge their cars at off-peak times. Mass charging of electric cars at peak times won't happen due to pricing. Economics is the surest way of changing people's habits, witness the almost immediate 95% drop in plastic bag use when plastic bag charges were introduced.

Yes, my calculation was intentionally simplistic so that it gives an easy to understand first order estimate of what can currently be coped with by the current network.

The point I was trying to make is that in the short term there is no particular grid capacity issue for off-peak charging with a steady growth in ev ownership. Obviously there would be a problem if everybody decides to charge their cars at times of peak demand, again something that smart meters and variable pricing will help to manage.

There's a lot of scaremongering about grid capacity in the context of ev charging and it's all pretty much unfounded and uninformed, at least in the short to medium term.

KCross · 24-02-2019 9:27pm

pdpmur wrote: »

Mass market adoption of electric cars will mean that hundreds of thousands of cars will be charging simultaneously, particularly with the advent of smart metering and variable pricing that will incentivise people to charge their cars at off-peak times.

Mass charging of electric cars at peak times won't happen due to pricing. Economics is the surest way of changing people's habits, witness the almost immediate 95% drop in plastic bag use when plastic bag charges were introduced.

I agree. Much the same as it is today. Anyone with an EV today should be charging on off-peak. Smart-metering wont change that significantly in the medium term as I believe they are only going to 3 tariffs, which isnt alot different to todays 2 tariffs.

pdpmur wrote: »

Yes, my calculation was intentionally simplistic so that it gives an easy to understand first order estimate of what can currently be coped with by the current network.

pdpmur wrote: »

There's a lot of scaremongering about grid capacity in the context of ev charging and it's all pretty much unfounded and uninformed, at least in the short to medium term.

ok, we are in agreement i think. There is plenty spare generation capacity. You demonstarted that point well, tbf. Whether its 200k, 400k or 1m EV's doesnt really matter since we are so far away from that point anyway. ESB Networks will have plenty time to adapt. I just think its alot more than the 200k you quoted, thats all.

The issue will really be transmission issues, not generation. If 200k EV's magically appeared on the grid in the morning there would be flashpoints around the country where the grid would fail. Thats where the bigger issues will be, not at the power plant.

pdpmur wrote: »

Obviously there would be a problem if everybody decides to charge their cars at times of peak demand, again something that smart meters and variable pricing will help to manage.

Water John wrote: »

It doesn't happen ATM but one could see a lot of EVs being preset to kick in charging once night rate leecie is available. With the advent of smart metering, with three rates if not 30 min billing this won't be happening.
As it stands plugging in when home, say 6 pm, that worsens peak demand which is between 5 pm and 7 pm. Really should be delayed until later.

The thing I havent seen explained yet is how smart metering is going to help smoothen the peaks when all they plan is 3 tariffs. That's not really alot different to todays 2 tariffs. It will help but will it help much?

With an EV you will obviously just pick the cheapest tariff and set your timers within that window. Its the same as today really....that will be during the night.

I'd imagine the extra tariff will be that peak when everyone comes home from work. They will try to discourage use during those few hours.... but the vast majority dont charge at that time anyway unless you like giving away money!

Water John · 24-02-2019 10:08pm

The 3 time ones would be a poor option. 3 prices with variable times would be the right choice, high, medium and low tariff but potential of each being more than once in the 24 hours.
High 12-15 and 17-19
Medium 8-12, 15-17, 19-22
Low 22-8

With solar 12-15 might move from high to low.

Need to avoid a major surge of EVs connecting at the one time in the evening.
The Grid staff at present have to forecast demand for half time in major games when everyone switches on the kettle (3Kw) for tea.

KCross · 24-02-2019 10:14pm

Water John wrote: »

The 3 time ones would be a poor option. 3 prices with variable times would be the right choice, high, medium and low tariff but potential of each being more than once in the 24 hours.
High 12-15 and 17-19
Medium 8-12, 15-17, 19-22
Low 22-8

With solar 12-15 might move from high to low.

Need to avoid a major surge of EVs connecting at the one time in the evening.
The Grid staff at present have to forecast demand for half time in major games when everyone switches on the kettle (3Kw) for tea.

I think the objection to variable pricing is that people wouldn’t be able to predict their bills. It’s a sensitive area to be playing with vulnerable people’s bills which I believe is why they were leaning towards 3 tariff windows.

I suppose get the meters in first, then you have options to change it later.

Zenith74 · 25-02-2019 9:01am

KCross wrote: »

The thing I havent seen explained yet is how smart metering is going to help smoothen the peaks when all they plan is 3 tariffs. That's not really alot different to todays 2 tariffs. It will help but will it help much?

With an EV you will obviously just pick the cheapest tariff and set your timers within that window. Its the same as today really....that will be during the night.

I wonder how many homes have night rate meters installed at the moment? I don't know a single person with one, so my guess is we'll be going from the vast majority having just one tariff to every home having three. So there could be a fairly significant change in behaviour.

I think people being able to see their consumption live (assuming there will be an app or dashboard of some sort) and what they're missing out on (savings wise) by doing things at the wrong time will also change behaviour for the positive.

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2019 9:04am

Fossil fueled cars are here for a while yet, until manufacturers stop making them, we ll keep buying them

unkel · 25-02-2019 2:32pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Fossil fueled cars are here for a while yet, until manufacturers stop making them

They will stop making them when they are no longer allowed to sell them. A bit over 5 years from now and they will be banned from Norway. A year later from the Netherlands and just over 10 years from now in this country. That is not that long a time at all really

Wanderer78 · 25-02-2019 3:00pm

unkel wrote:

They will stop making them when they are no longer allowed to sell them. A bit over 5 years from now and they will be banned from Norway. A year later from the Netherlands and just over 10 years from now in this country. That is not that long a time at all really

Good points, but there will also be delays in the reduction of the availability of oil based cars due to this, they're here for a couple of more decades anyway

samih · 25-02-2019 4:17pm

Shefwedfan wrote: »

Manual is dead, well nearly dead for new cars. Why anyone would buy manual going forward baffles me. It a technology from 40 years ago and a better solution is in place

first diesel and now a manual gearbox, Irish people don’t seem to like change

Most manufacturers even in combustion engine are slowing getting rid of manual, most countries have or are moving away from it in new cars

I used to say manual would remain for tractors but all my brothers tractors are now automatic

I drove my van properly first time in months. The ICE diesel is a lots more work than I remember :-). Especially one that needs downshifting on big hills. Feels like dark ages to drive it, ffs. You'd ideally need to grow another arm to handle all the required tasks. And don't mention the non-instant heat and having to change your hi/lo beams manually. At least there was a cruise control.

But the range was great, returned home after more than 700 km's since the last charge in October and there is still about 15 percent of juice left and the low charge indicator hasn't even lit yet. The GOM predicts another 240 kilometers left before recharging is needed.

Markcheese · 25-02-2019 5:34pm

Are the planned smart meters going to have just three tariffs for now? , or are they capable of adding many more to the same units ...?
Also can the grid do live tariff/ demand updates... As in I program my meter with what I want done by 7am,(and its priority), plug everything in at 7 pm, so I need my car at 50% charge, and the dishwasher done, washing machines yeah, but no rush. And I let the grid sort out the rest..

Shefwedfan · 25-02-2019 5:36pm

Markcheese wrote: »

Are the planned smart meters going to have just three tariffs for now? , or are they capable of adding many more to the same units ...?
Also can the grid do live tariff/ demand updates... As in I program my meter with what I want done by 7am,(and its priority), plug everything in at 7 pm, so I need my car at 50% charge, and the dishwasher done, washing machines yeah, but no rush. And I let the grid sort out the rest..

As it is Ireland and they have spent over 10 years talking about it....

It will have 2 tariffs, it will cost 5 billion and once it is finished they will need to spend another 5 to put in the proper system

KCross · 25-02-2019 5:53pm

Markcheese wrote: »

Are the planned smart meters going to have just three tariffs for now? , or are they capable of adding many more to the same units ...?

The new meters will automatically report usage data, in 15min intervals, to ESB Networks. The man-in-a-van taking the meter readings will be out of a job.

The billing is then all taken care of by back office systems.

So, they can change the tariffs in future without changing anything in the meter.

Markcheese · 25-02-2019 7:21pm

KCross wrote: »

The new meters will automatically report usage data, in 15min intervals, to ESB Networks. The man-in-a-van taking the meter readings will be out of a job.

The billing is then all taken care of by back office systems.

So, they can change the tariffs in future without changing anything in the meter.

To some extent, that's the same as now with the old analogue meters,
The day /night meters are read (manually I know), and the tariffs are worked out in back office,
I was wondering was there going to be more 2 way communication and variable or spot tariffs (on certain bill plans).. To balance the grid

Gumbo · 27-02-2019 7:24pm

Smart Metering should be rolled out by September this year.
I may have one as part of a pilot scheme through ESB staff but wont know for sure just yet.

KCross · 27-02-2019 9:05pm

kceire wrote: »

Smart Metering should be rolled out by September this year.
I may have one as part of a pilot scheme through ESB staff but wont know for sure just yet.

You mean started rather than rolled out!

It’s going to take years to rollout.

Shefwedfan · 27-02-2019 10:48pm

kceire wrote: »

Smart Metering should be rolled out by September this year.
I may have one as part of a pilot scheme through ESB staff but wont know for sure just yet.

It might be to ESB staff....

I doubt any normal house will see anything of a smart meter till next year and for the whole country it could be 2022 before it is finished.....

Sorry I didnt see post above

Andy From Sligo · 05-03-2019 2:00am

In the Irish times 1st Mar2019 :
Electric car sales surge by 542% as traditional market stalls

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/electric-car-sales-surge-by-542-as-traditional-market-stalls-1.3811006

ELM327 · 05-03-2019 9:38am

If you "surge" from 10 to 100 is that a "surge" at all...

Gumbo · 05-03-2019 10:37am

KCross wrote: »

You mean started rather than rolled out!

It’s going to take years to rollout.

Yes, sorry, I mean the process should commence. Rolled out and completion may take some years.

Shefwedfan wrote: »

It might be to ESB staff....

I doubt any normal house will see anything of a smart meter till next year and for the whole country it could be 2022 before it is finished.....

Sorry I didnt see post above

I'll know more over the coming weeks. There's meetings currently going on to discuss or so i'm told. They want 25000 homes to trial it first.

liamog · 05-03-2019 12:03pm

The automobile industry is experinecing the Osborne effect at the moment.
People are deciding that their next car will be electric but lack of choice and availability are leading them to defer purchases.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/

ELM327 · 05-03-2019 12:30pm

Went to bid on this this morning but it went for €5600, beyond my budget for a runaround
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/renault-zoe-dynamique-intens-0/21160688

Electric cars for the masses... €5600 for a 141 zoe is perfectly affordable for most people.

ted1 · 05-03-2019 12:36pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Went to bid on this this morning but it went for €5600, beyond my budget for a runaround
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/renault-zoe-dynamique-intens-0/21160688

Electric cars for the masses... €5600 for a 141 zoe is perfectly affordable for most people.

Battery rental?

05-03-2019 12:44pm

liamog wrote: »

The automobile industry is experinecing the Osborne effect at the moment.
People are deciding that their next car will be electric but lack of choice and availability are leading them to defer purchases.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/

I really wanted one last year but was limited to an Ioniq with 200km range.
Now I don't go over that daily but would do once or twice a week so it was not a safe option for me so ended up buying a 2nd hand Volvo S80.

As much as I want an EV that S80 is mine for the next several years.

05-03-2019 12:47pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Went to bid on this this morning but it went for €5600, beyond my budget for a runaround
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/renault-zoe-dynamique-intens-0/21160688

Electric cars for the masses... €5600 for a 141 zoe is perfectly affordable for most people.

1. It's a Zoe so not exactly big. Not a family car anyway but not an issue for many, as you said a "runaround"

2. 4 owners in 4 years

Most Important
3. Auctions are for trade/enthusiasts/brave

Creamy Goodness · 05-03-2019 12:49pm

I wouldn’t want to be anywhere approaching 6ft in that Zoe. Looks tiny.

05-03-2019 12:51pm

Creamy Goodness wrote: »

I wouldn’t want to be anywhere approaching 6ft in that Zoe. Looks tiny.

Seats all the way back. No room in back if you're tall in front

Pussyhands · 05-03-2019 12:51pm

EV sales up 500%...now show the growth for EV chargers...

samih · 05-03-2019 1:21pm

Well the number of sites with multiple DC chargers will go from 0 to about 10 this year, maybe 60 chargers in total. That's infinite percent increase so well above the 500 percent increase in the car sales. And as the new cars have longer range than the earlier models you hardly ever need to public charge. The last public charge I have done driving a 40 kWh car was on 1st of Janury returning home from Co. Clare. Since then we have driven about 3000 kilometers on home charging alone.

Andy From Sligo · 05-03-2019 1:27pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Went to bid on this this morning but it went for €5600, beyond my budget for a runaround
https://www.donedeal.ie/cars-for-sale/renault-zoe-dynamique-intens-0/21160688

Electric cars for the masses... €5600 for a 141 zoe is perfectly affordable for most people.

4 owners??? ... On an electric car! . Find that strange. Looks a nice one. Yeah battery rental model at that year.

Originally wanted my Mrs to spend this on our next car and go electric. Was looking at 2014 car up in northern Ireland dealer at around 5 and a half grand UK pound . there would have been no VRT to pay on it. But she was worry about (especially the older Zoe's) not doing much on one charge , and range anxiety (being out somewhere , it running out of charge and not being able to find a charging station) and having to work her day around being somewhere where a charger is and hanging around longer than she needed even if it was 20mins to give it a quick top up . and then on top that battery rental. Its a shame , I really wanted her to go electric for her next car. I can see where she was coming from though it is enough to put people off. You can say the plusses about 120 vehicle tax, you can say about some toll roads/bridges being exempt of charges for electric vehicles, you can say about some places offer free parking for electric vehicle's, you can say about never having to fill up with petrol ever again, you can say about quiet car without an old fossil fuel engine and all the problems you have with an ice engine let alone how much better ev's are for the environment re pollution and everything and yet as long as all those other things are outstanding (regarding the age you could get a cheap one, the high battery rental that comes with them, the short range on one charge for the earlier ones) then this does take the shine off owning an electric vehicle (of that age / price)

So what are we face with now, a sharp increase With people wanting and buying a new electric car in 2019 , they are ready to take the plunge. But the affordable cars (in the second hand market) are older, low range on one chage ,come with a battery rental charge that you have to pay out for , no avoiding - well maybe you could buy out , but look how much extra that bumps a car up to!)

So then you are looking at buying a new one without battery rental , longer range than the earlier electric vehicle's and you are then talking of having a fat wallet (with some of them costing 30grand and more) and is out of most peoples budget! So where are the electric vehicles for the masses? (Well talking used car market they are there with the Zoe's at 2014 vintage and 80km range and high cost battery rental charge) and then you have maybe Nissan leaf at ever older vintage at around 2011 again with a battery rental and not as fast charging as the Zoe , again it has a low range on one charge) so again where is the selection/availability where is the electric vehicle's for the masses?

So say you have the budget to go for a brand new 191 electric car in Ireland. What have you the choice of out of all the car manufacturers that have an ice car in the market in Ireland. Well the only choice I think you have now if you wanted to go out and buy a 191 today is (I am ready to be corrected) the Hyundai kona all electric (quoted 450km range) , the Volkswagen e-golf, the new Renault Zoe's, and of course the Nissan leaf. Again, where is the choice? Where are the electric cars for the masses?

We are already then (according to the media) people are ready for their car now or next car to be electric. No getting away with that number 1 there is not many to choose from as there is ice cars on the market, and even now with people ready to make the change the street charging stations in Ireland need massively upgrading (fixed as well, an awful lot seem to be out of action for a long time sometimes, the ones that are in existence) and more chargers put in, everywhere in Ireland.

Where are the electric cars for the masses?

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