Where are the electric cars for the masses?

The Enbalmer

unkel wrote:

Not until next year will we see EVs that are cheaper to buy than a similar diesel / petrol. And of course massive savings (in money and to the environment) start after you buy one...

Will check back in a year and see if that's true.

Of course it won't be.

Mike9832

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You're probably correct, they key to knowing this is that if Apple or Samsung have no Solid state batteries then it's highly unlikely we'll see them in cars for years, they're incredibly expensive.

Exactly

Watch the €1000 smartphone scene, where cost per kWh is irrelevant

Samsung pulled out of putting 30c graphene based batteries in its flagship S line before christmas to everyones surprise

Say we are stuck with lithium ion for a while

NoBread

ELM327 wrote: »

Remind me again what sort of battery is in all hydrogen cars?
That's right, lithium ion. I think the mirai has a similar size li ion battery to the prius phev.
So hydrogen does not insulate us against lithium supply issues.

Which is a lot smaller than the one in the Kona, which is very relevant when you are talking about 100 million cars worldwide, or whatever the number is presently.
I think we should wait and see what Japan will offer in 2020 to see a closer real-life representation of a working Hydrogen infrastructure. It's easy to highlight the big ticket items and wave them as a form of dismissal, but it just takes one small break through to change everything quickly, and lets face it - oil companies will want to back some horse, recharging stations aren't going to make them rich in the future, and Governments will want to stick duty on something too, so they will favour a Hydrogen infrastructure.
At the moment, if everyone in Ireland switched to BEV's, there isn't enough power in the grid to charge all the cars, but that's not going to happen, so that's not an issue yet either.

pdpmur

NoBread wrote: »

At the moment, if everyone in Ireland switched to BEV's, there isn't enough power in the grid to charge all the cars, but that's not going to happen, so that's not an issue yet either.

Stats from Eirgrid Smartgriddashboard:
Nightly (12am - 6am) all-island demand - not more than 5GW generally
All-time peak demand - about 6.8GW.

So, if we say that the excess capacity over demand at off-peak times is (6.5 - 5.0) = 1.5GW then at an average nightly charge rate of 7.4kW per vehicle, this would allow the current network to cope with about (1.5E9/7.4E3) = 202,700 additional electric vehicles to charge at off-peak times.

So, you are technically right about capacity, but (as you also correctly pointed out) there's no realistic possibility of everybody in Ireland switching to BEVs overnight anyway and the current network has plenty of capacity to cope with additional EV nightly off-peak demand in the short term due to expected growth in ownership.

This also highlights why charging an EV during the daytime should of course attract a higher price in order to incentivise people not to do so unless necessary, so that the grid and the generating network capacity can be upgraded in a structured and economical way.

Smart metering of homes with variable rate pricing will be the big driver of consumer behaviour.

ELM327

NoBread wrote: »

Which is a lot smaller than the one in the Kona, which is very relevant when you are talking about 100 million cars worldwide, or whatever the number is presently.
I think we should wait and see what Japan will offer in 2020 to see a closer real-life representation of a working Hydrogen infrastructure. It's easy to highlight the big ticket items and wave them as a form of dismissal, but it just takes one small break through to change everything quickly, and lets face it - oil companies will want to back some horse, recharging stations aren't going to make them rich in the future, and Governments will want to stick duty on something too, so they will favour a Hydrogen infrastructure.
At the moment, if everyone in Ireland switched to BEV's, there isn't enough power in the grid to charge all the cars, but that's not going to happen, so that's not an issue yet either.

A falsehood if ever I heard one.
There is excess power being turned off at night, there is peak and trough. If we stored the electricity instead of turning off the power stations it would cover a lot of cars. Maybe not all right now, but in time with more renewables Ireland could be 100% green and 100% energy self sufficient.

NoBread

ELM327 wrote: »

A falsehood if ever I heard one.
There is excess power being turned off at night, there is peak and trough. If we stored the electricity instead of turning off the power stations it would cover a lot of cars. Maybe not all right now, but in time with more renewables Ireland could be 100% green and 100% energy self sufficient.

See post above, which is articulated well.
Storing the electricity - there's the dilemma! Maybe Hydrogen generation after all?
Ireland is a long way from 100% renewable electricity generation. Fusion will come before that!

ELM327

NoBread wrote: »

See post above, which is articulated well.
Storing the electricity - there's the dilemma! Maybe Hydrogen generation after all?
Ireland is a long way from 100% renewable electricity generation. Fusion will come before that!

Yes. Storage is possible in much much more efficent ways than Hydrogen.
Water, battery storage are but 2.


We are a long way but there is massive potential for the west coast offshore.

Think we’re gone way OT now

Shefwedfan

ELM327 wrote: »

A falsehood if ever I heard one.
There is excess power being turned off at night, there is peak and trough. If we stored the electricity instead of turning off the power stations it would cover a lot of cars. Maybe not all right now, but in time with more renewables Ireland could be 100% green and 100% energy self sufficient.

I was talking to a person about the UK grid


What they want is a level power generation, the biggest cost is turning on and off the power. So turning everything off at night to turn back on is very inefficient....hence they they are looking at smart meter to try and regulate people to stop peaks.....


His example was the Great British Bake off, at break everyone turns on kettle and causes a huge spike, they will make it so anyone who waits one min will have cheap electricity

Andy From Sligo

I'd like familiarity - give me an electric car with a 5 gear gearstick and a clutch pedal (even if its a fake one) - I know people say "you will get used to an automatic car in no time and you will never want to go a manual car ever again" - but I dunno I still think i am not convinced. I mean changing gears help keep you awake while driving, and you must have the feeling of being in control better.

Still no gearbox needed i'm sure. - I am no technician but little micro-switches and a gear selector sending signal to the motor synchronised with the accelerator - surely must be do-able

- even go as far as to have to reverse it move the gearstick over to the right and then back .

I must be in the minority.

You don't need gears or clutch for better control of an EV.

Andy From Sligo

Deleted User wrote: »

You don't need gears or clutch for better control of an EV.

I know you don't need them ... but

Why would you even want to suffer such power loss for the sake of clutch and gears ? :pac:

Water John

Batteries in EV cars is a grid storage solution. The Grid can take a lot more generation esp dispersed generation like wind, AD and solar.
We'll need about 3 to 4 times present generation if/when we go totally carbon neutral.

KCross

pdpmur wrote: »

Stats from Eirgrid Smartgriddashboard:
Nightly (12am - 6am) all-island demand - not more than 5GW generally
All-time peak demand - about 6.8GW.

So, if we say that the excess capacity over demand at off-peak times is (6.5 - 5.0) = 1.5GW then at an average nightly charge rate of 7.4kW per vehicle, this would allow the current network to cope with about (1.5E9/7.4E3) = 202,700 additional electric vehicles to charge at off-peak times.

So, you are technically right about capacity, but (as you also correctly pointed out) there's no realistic possibility of everybody in Ireland switching to BEVs overnight anyway and the current network has plenty of capacity to cope with additional EV nightly off-peak demand in the short term due to expected growth in ownership.

This also highlights why charging an EV during the daytime should of course attract a higher price in order to incentivise people not to do so unless necessary, so that the grid and the generating network capacity can be upgraded in a structured and economical way.

Smart metering of homes with variable rate pricing will be the big driver of consumer behaviour.

You are mixing up kW and kWh. EVs won’t be charging at 7kW all night long except for a rare few people who are exceptionally high mileage.

unkel

+1

My EV doesn't even charge for 1 hour per day on average. Charging for 1 hour per day at 7kW means a weekly use of 7 days times 1 hour times 7kW = 49kWh which in my car is good for about 20k km per year (that's more than I drive and more than the average car in Ireland drives)

Zenith74

pdpmur wrote: »

So, if we say that the excess capacity over demand at off-peak times is (6.5 - 5.0) = 1.5GW then at an average nightly charge rate of 7.4kW per vehicle, this would allow the current network to cope with about (1.5E9/7.4E3) = 202,700 additional electric vehicles to charge at off-peak times.

Just to tease that out a bit. We have 1.5GW extra capacity begin generated off-peak, so over the 9 off-peak hours we would generate 13.5GWh extra power.

Your average driver in Ireland does 17000km per year or 45km per day, so at the end of the day when your average punter plugs in their car to charge they need to replenish that 45km, which in my Leaf is very roughly 10kWh of power. So 13.5GWh % 10kWh = 1.35 million cars able to recharge using our spare capacity. At 2.1m cars on our roads, that would represent 65% of all passenger cars.

Water John

Zenith broadly correct, however peak generation is usually high in price, it may be diesel, at present certainly not renewable. So increased generation is needed so that the higher priced options are rarely called on.
Anerobic digestion (AD) looks the most flexible renewable energy that could be called on at peak times, but up to now we have done SFA to incentivise it.
Studied renewables nearly 20 years ago and it was viewed then as a great option.

KCross

Zenith74 wrote: »

Just to tease that out a bit. We have 1.5GW extra capacity begin generated off-peak, so over the 9 off-peak hours we would generate 13.5GWh extra power.

Your average driver in Ireland does 17000km per year or 45km per day, so at the end of the day when your average punter plugs in their car to charge they need to replenish that 45km, which in my Leaf is very roughly 10kWh of power. So 13.5GWh % 10kWh = 1.35 million cars able to recharge using our spare capacity. At 2.1m cars on our roads, that would represent 65% of all passenger cars.

I believe the figure of 1.5GW’s of spare capacity for night time is wrong also. We are usually using less than 3GW’s at night.

Long term the issue won’t be generation, it will be transmission. Grid upgrades will be required in places.

Markcheese

KCross wrote: »

I believe the figure of 1.5GW’s of spare capacity for night time is wrong also. We are usually using less than 3GW’s at night.

Long term the issue won’t be generation, it will be transmission. Grid upgrades will be required in places.

Long term you may well be right, the big transmission lines would probably be “easy enough ", but when you include having to upgrade ALL the local lines and transformers Ect it'd be a huge operation..
Luckily it's a long way down the line.. And there'll be plenty of time to predict future public usage and times, and smart metering should help...

JPA

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

I'd like familiarity - give me an electric car with a 5 gear gearstick and a clutch pedal (even if its a fake one) - I know people say "you will get used to an automatic car in no time and you will never want to go a manual car ever again" - but I dunno I still think i am not convinced. I mean changing gears help keep you awake while driving, and you must have the feeling of being in control better.

Still no gearbox needed i'm sure. - I am no technician but little micro-switches and a gear selector sending signal to the motor synchronised with the accelerator - surely must be do-able

- even go as far as to have to reverse it move the gearstick over to the right and then back .

I must be in the minority.

But you've never driven an EV, have you? You're talking about adding complexity for no reason.

optimal

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

I know you don't need them ... but

If people thought that way 100 years ago you probably would want a bridle too 😀

Andy From Sligo

JPA wrote: »

But you've never driven an EV, have you? You're talking about adding complexity for no reason.

Neutral , no power to motor. 1st gear = whatever an ice does in first gear and then so on until 5th gear when you are doing 100/120kmh say . Not much extra expense at all and no more complexity than adding microswitches to the bottom of the gearstick and send a signal to the traction motor ECU.

Sounds crazy yes, but as for familiarity for many people switching from manual gearbox ice car who cannot get on with driving and automatic car it would be seamless and I for one would think it ideal.

Especially as well if one of your cars is a manual ice car and your other car is an electric car and you would like to switch between the 2 for some reason.

Shefwedfan

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

Especially as well if one of your cars is a manual ice car and your other car is an electric car and you would like to switch between the 2 for some reason.

Manual is dead, well nearly dead for new cars. Why anyone would buy manual going forward baffles me. It a technology from 40 years ago and a better solution is in place

first diesel and now a manual gearbox, Irish people don’t seem to like change

Most manufacturers even in combustion engine are slowing getting rid of manual, most countries have or are moving away from it in new cars

I used to say manual would remain for tractors but all my brothers tractors are now automatic

Gumbo

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

Neutral , no power to motor. 1st gear = whatever an ice does in first gear and then so on until 5th gear when you are doing 100/120kmh say . Not much extra expense at all and no more complexity than adding microswitches to the bottom of the gearstick and send a signal to the traction motor ECU.

Sounds crazy yes, but as for familiarity for many people switching from manual gearbox ice car who cannot get on with driving and automatic car it would be seamless and I for one would think it ideal.

Especially as well if one of your cars is a manual ice car and your other car is an electric car and you would like to switch between the 2 for some reason.

Andy, with all due respect, this is silly.

Shefwedfan

Andy From Sligo wrote: »

Neutral , no power to motor. 1st gear = whatever an ice does in first gear and then so on until 5th gear when you are doing 100/120kmh say . Not much extra expense at all and no more complexity than adding microswitches to the bottom of the gearstick and send a signal to the traction motor ECU.

Sounds crazy yes, but as for familiarity for many people switching from manual gearbox ice car who cannot get on with driving and automatic car it would be seamless and I for one would think it ideal.

Especially as well if one of your cars is a manual ice car and your other car is an electric car and you would like to switch between the 2 for some reason.

My parents, both 70 and now 71, neither had driven an automatic in their lives.


Swapped to Leaf last year and would never buy a manual car again.



They do still have a manual Qashqai and they swap over and back, they have no issues.......

pdpmur

KCross wrote: »

You are mixing up kW and kWh. .

I don't believe so.

KCross

pdpmur wrote: »

I don't believe so.

You took generation in kW and translated that into charging cars which is in kWh’s.

Yes, cars charge at 7kW, but that’s not how you calculate how the generation is translated to EV charging.

Subsequent posters have shown worked examples. Ultimately your calculated figures are wrong or misleading at best.

pdpmur

KCross wrote: »

You took generation in kW and translated that into charging cars which is in kWh’s.

Yes, cars charge at 7kW, but that’s not how you calculate how the generation is translated to EV charging.

Subsequent posters have shown worked examples. Ultimately your calculated figures are wrong or misleading at best.

The capacity of the grid to supply power to charging ev's at any particular time has got nothing to do with the capacity of the batteries of all of the ev's that are connected, it is solely a function of instantaneous demand on it via the sum total of all of the connected chargers (notwithstanding possible local infrastructural defecits).

If you, I or anyone else plugs in their ev at a 7.4kW charger and ask it to begin charging at midnight then, unless the car battery is close to full charge, it will demand 7.4kW from the grid at midnight. It makes no difference whether the car is an L30 or a P100D.

If 200,000 people do exactly the same thing then the demand on the grid will rise by about 1.5GW at midnight. The point of this particular sub-discussion is that the current grid and generating network can probably cope with such a demand during the nightly off-peak period without need for drastic upgrades, so there's no particular problem in the short term with an increased usage of ev's.

Smart metering will of course, in time, be part of the solution in modulating demand to suit supply so that the grid and generating capacity is used most efficiently. That's why there is now a programme for their nationwide installation.

KCross

What you have calculated is the number of cars that can charge at 7kW simultaneously.

What I'm trying to point out is that your statement here is not correct....

pdpmur wrote: »

... this would allow the current network to cope with about (1.5E9/7.4E3) = 202,700 additional electric vehicles to charge at off-peak times.

1.5GW of spare capacity throughout the 9hrs of off-peak can take ALOT more EV's during off-peak times than you have calculated as you are assuming that everyone starts their charge at the same time and is running for the entire 9hrs of off-peak.... or at least thats what your statement above says.... maybe you didnt mean it that way?

Put another way, you are taking an absolute worst case scenario that 200k EV's start their charge together at midnight. If that happened, then yes you are correct but that isnt how it works in reality... you havent accounted for electrical diversity.

If I went around my house and turned on every appliance I'd blow the house fuse but in reality that doesnt happen either. Devices turn on and off. Similarly, cars will start and finish at various times and run for different lengths of time.

pdpmur wrote: »

If you, I or anyone else plugs in their ev at a 7.4kW charger and ask it to begin charging at midnight then, unless the car battery is close to full charge, it will demand 7.4kW from the grid at midnight. It makes no difference whether the car is an L30 or a P100D.

Correct, but most people connect their car when they get home (peak time) and the car timer decides when it starts. Some will start at the very start of off-peak rate. Some let the car decide when to start itself as long as it finishes before the end of off-peak.

e.g. My car finishes every day at 8am. It starts at a different time everyday depending on how low the battery is that day. Some days I have it timed to start at 3am and it could finish at 4am, 5am, 6am etc... again dependent on the SoC of the battery when it started.

The point is all the EV's dont start charging or finish charging at the same time and they crucially dont all require the full 9hrs.