Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

EKRIUQ

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

No deal is absolutely not gone, not sure how you could say that? No deal will just been kicked down the road when May's deal doesn't pass... if the extension passes.


No, it's really not.

It is, as in it will probably be up to the EU to tell the UK if they don't come up with a solution by June then it's no deal by default.

If they don't the UK will require extension after extension.

gooch2k9

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Foolishly, looks like Cooper-Letwin will be pulled:

http://twitter.com/oletwinofficial/status/1100419897987878912

Cooper has said it's being put forward in order to nail down PM's/ministerial commitment tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1100425098195075073

Leroy42

EKRIUQ wrote: »

It is, as in it will probably be up to the EU to tell the UK if they don't come up with a solution by June then it's no deal by default.

If they don't the UK will require extension after extension.

So isn't that only increasing the likelihood of a no deal?

To be at this point in the process and still messing about with vague statements and guessing games is almost criminal. That the rest of the MP's in the HoC will once again let her away with such a cynical action is mindbending.

No deal is very much on the table. TM deal will no be voted for, not as it currently stands which is the only basis we can talk about it. So Option 1 is gone.
Then they vote to reject No Deal. But on what basis, since they have already rejected a deal. ERG will vote down TM deal and then vote for No deal. Even if defeated they can vote against an extension of simply reject the deal when it is put again to the HoC at end of June.
Option 3 is the extension. Rutte said yesterday that the EU would need to see why and for what they needed an extension for. But if they have voted against TM's deal and rejected No Deal they what are they looking for? They have taken away their strong card (it isn't really as No deal is far worse for UK) and replaced it with nothing.

Fionn1952

Any sign of this fabled 4pm DUP statement?

ilovesmybrick

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

joe40

Is there any likelihood that that pro brexit MPs, faced with the prospect of extension to A 50 and potential second referendum (slim I know) will actually pass the WA in march.
Does that scenario have any feasible chance of happening.

BobbyBobberson

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

"Insert title of report". They are looking for abuse at this stage.

gooch2k9

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

Good to see the GATT article 24 nonsense quashed.



Number 38 - not in our power to keep the lights on.

reslfj

Deleted User wrote: »

Referendum for Deal or No Deal. Or let the HoC rescind Article 50. It's saying something when so many in the most affected EU country are absolutely sick of them and don't even want them to remain.

Invest in popcorn and hold tight.

https://twitter.com/LarsFJ1/status/1099752909980532736

Lars

Leroy42

10.5% lost GDP in North east of England with a No deal over the long term. Jebus.

Around 92% of Welsh lamb exports by value go to the EU. Consequently, disruption to animal exports would likely be felt strongly by the Welsh lamb industry.

lawred2

boggerman1 wrote: »

Jeffery Donaldson on radio 1 now sounds a beaten docket in my opinion.he seems to realize that they have been thrown under the bus.sammy must not be available

Well they won't learn. They routinely throw NI under this bus in their desperation to prove their Unionist credentials. However Westminster doesn't really care for their posturing.

ilovesmybrick

Leroy42 wrote: »

10.5 lost GDP in North east of England with a No deal over the long term. Jebus.

SO, the value of the Northern Irish subvention and more than is paid into the EU. There have been mutterings for years in the British regions around that payment to NI, if regional economies take that kind of hit it's going to get increasingly difficult to maintain it at current levels.

Leroy42

Sorry, that should have been 10.5%, it was not a amount in money if that is what you took it as. Not sure what 10.5% in GDP terms would add to.

Zubeneschamali

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

This analysis does not account for any short term disruptions, which would be likely to have additional short and long run economic impacts in an immediate no deal scenario.

Thanks for that, lads, great stuff altogether.

ilovesmybrick

Based on DExEU survey data from January 2019, 55% of UK
adults did not expect to be affected by a no deal exit.

That's a terrifyingly large figure to think that's the case, though it does broadly correspond with the leave vote

BobbyBobberson

Jesus this is incredible reading. To think one of the largest economies in the world is on the cusp of this is outrageous.

Leroy42

Another bit:

Conclusions
51. Government has been accelerating its preparations for a no deal scenario since
September, with a particular emphasis since December 2018. However, the short
time remaining before 29 March 2019 does not allow Government to unilaterally
mitigate the effects of no deal. Even where it can take unilateral action, the lack of
preparation by businesses and individuals is likely to add to the disruption
experienced in a no deal scenario.

So the government has basically just concluded that leaving without a deal on 29th March would be even worse than if it postponed it.

And remember, that only today they are having meeting with business leaders because they only recently worked out they would not have enough pallets in the event of a no deal. Given that little oversight, I think it reasonable to conclude that they have underestimated the effects.

ilovesmybrick

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sorry, that should have been 10.5%, it was not a amount in money if that is what you took it as. Not sure what 10.5% in GDP terms would add to.

Apparently the GDP (for 2015) was just shy of 70 billion, so still a massive hit to the area.

Edit: Approximately 7.24 billion

reslfj

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU have already said that no member state will block an extension.

No one member will block

But if all or most members agree the UK has no plan for a constructive use of an A50 extension - the attitude can and will likely change.

Lars

Infini

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Jesus this is incredible reading. To think one of the largest economies in the world is on the cusp of this is outrageous.

To be fair Einstein said it best when people throw common sense and reason out the window...

RobMc59

Has anyone noticed JRM,bojo and the likes of Mark francois have gone AWOL from the news?

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

EKRIUQ wrote: »

It is, as in it will probably be up to the EU to tell the UK if they don't come up with a solution by June then it's no deal by default.

If they don't the UK will require extension after extension.

No-deal is the default position, if the EU has to tell the UK this at this stage they are well and truly bolloxed.

BobbyBobberson

Infini wrote: »

To be fair Einstein said it best when people throw common sense and reason out the window...

Do you know what else I have noticed. This British twee thing that many British institutions project. "Oh us? Oh we simply like queuing, putting up the rain and drinking tea" The new british airways ad ends exactly like that if any of you have seen it. And the reality? They are all tearing the arse of each other and govt is warning about food shortages. Went well the last time.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCJ_hNThGp4

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

Has anyone noticed JRM,bojo and the likes of Mark francois have gone AWOL from the news?

JRM was on Sky News a little while ago.

Boris, yes he has certainly gone to ground and Francois is a nobody in reality, only coming to light because of that ridiculous staged "Fight them on the beeches" stunt.

Itssoeasy

So I've not been following today in detail but I watch a 1:50 minute video of Teresa May in the commons. So, let me get it straight. There will be a vote on Teresa mays deal on march 12th and if that is defeated then the next day there will be a vote of the no deal option and the day after there could be a vote on extending the A50 process. Do I have that mostly right ?

joe40

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

Thanks for posting, great no nonsense report. They really are sleep walking into no deal. Scandalous it got this far.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So I've not been following today in detail but I watch a 1:50 minute video of Teresa May in the commons. So, let me get it straight. There will be a vote on Teresa mays deal on march 12th and if that is defeated then the next day there will be a vote of the no deal option and the day after there could be a vote on extending the A50 process. Do I have that mostly right ?

Yes, general consensus seems to be that the no to no-deal vote will pass, but nobody has a clue what happens if they don't vote to seek extension on 14th... a whopping 15 days until Brexit.

It'd be hilarious if it wasn't such a disaster.

ilovesmybrick

joe40 wrote: »

Thanks for posting, great no nonsense report. They really are sleep walking into no deal. Scandalous it got this far.

I'll be the first to put up my hands and say that I'm quite biased in that I think this was an idiotic decision compounded by political incompetence. However, is there anything at all in that report that can be construed as anything other than a disaster? No wonder the UK government were dragging their heels on publication.

That being said, it may be enough to force the parliament to face a degree of reality, especially after today's developments. I wouldn't want to be a Welsh MP in a rural area that doesn't fight against a no deal based on that report.

Spanish Eyes

WA does not pass, tick
No Deal kicked out too, tick.
Extension passed, for what does anyone know? Do they even know themselves! I mean what is left to discuss anymore?

Will EU agree to an extension if has no real meaning.

I suppose the theory is that WA will be passed as No Deal is just not on.

Cannot understand why the No Deal vote was not put first. But anyway.

BobbyBobberson

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Yes, general consensus seems to be that the no to no-deal vote will pass, but nobody has a clue what happens if they don't vote to seek extension on 14th... a whopping 15 days until Brexit.

It'd be hilarious if it wasn't such a disaster.

Do you know what the UK needs, it needs like Scrooge moment in A Christmas Carol. Just to be taken out of their existence and be shown a)how they look to everyone outside of the uk and b)the pot of ****e they are about to go head first into.