Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

ilovesmybrick · 26-02-2019 05:20PM

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

joe40 · 26-02-2019 05:21PM

Is there any likelihood that that pro brexit MPs, faced with the prospect of extension to A 50 and potential second referendum (slim I know) will actually pass the WA in march.
Does that scenario have any feasible chance of happening.

BobbyBobberson · 26-02-2019 05:22PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

"Insert title of report". They are looking for abuse at this stage.

gooch2k9 · 26-02-2019 05:24PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

Good to see the GATT article 24 nonsense quashed.

Number 38 - not in our power to keep the lights on.

reslfj · 26-02-2019 05:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Referendum for Deal or No Deal. Or let the HoC rescind Article 50. It's saying something when so many in the most affected EU country are absolutely sick of them and don't even want them to remain.

Invest in popcorn and hold tight.

https://twitter.com/LarsFJ1/status/1099752909980532736

Lars

Leroy42 · 26-02-2019 05:26PM

10.5% lost GDP in North east of England with a No deal over the long term. Jebus.

Around 92% of Welsh lamb exports by value go to the EU. Consequently, disruption to animal exports would likely be felt strongly by the Welsh lamb industry.

lawred2 · 26-02-2019 05:27PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Jeffery Donaldson on radio 1 now sounds a beaten docket in my opinion.he seems to realize that they have been thrown under the bus.sammy must not be available

Well they won't learn. They routinely throw NI under this bus in their desperation to prove their Unionist credentials. However Westminster doesn't really care for their posturing.

ilovesmybrick · 26-02-2019 05:28PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

10.5 lost GDP in North east of England with a No deal over the long term. Jebus.

SO, the value of the Northern Irish subvention and more than is paid into the EU. There have been mutterings for years in the British regions around that payment to NI, if regional economies take that kind of hit it's going to get increasingly difficult to maintain it at current levels.

Leroy42 · 26-02-2019 05:30PM

Sorry, that should have been 10.5%, it was not a amount in money if that is what you took it as. Not sure what 10.5% in GDP terms would add to.

Zubeneschamali · 26-02-2019 05:30PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

This analysis does not account for any short term disruptions, which would be likely to have additional short and long run economic impacts in an immediate no deal scenario.

Thanks for that, lads, great stuff altogether.

ilovesmybrick · 26-02-2019 05:30PM

Based on DExEU survey data from January 2019, 55% of UK
adults did not expect to be affected by a no deal exit.

That's a terrifyingly large figure to think that's the case, though it does broadly correspond with the leave vote

BobbyBobberson · 26-02-2019 05:32PM

Jesus this is incredible reading. To think one of the largest economies in the world is on the cusp of this is outrageous.

Leroy42 · 26-02-2019 05:32PM

Another bit:

Conclusions
51. Government has been accelerating its preparations for a no deal scenario since
September, with a particular emphasis since December 2018. However, the short
time remaining before 29 March 2019 does not allow Government to unilaterally
mitigate the effects of no deal. Even where it can take unilateral action, the lack of
preparation by businesses and individuals is likely to add to the disruption
experienced in a no deal scenario.

So the government has basically just concluded that leaving without a deal on 29th March would be even worse than if it postponed it.

And remember, that only today they are having meeting with business leaders because they only recently worked out they would not have enough pallets in the event of a no deal. Given that little oversight, I think it reasonable to conclude that they have underestimated the effects.

ilovesmybrick · 26-02-2019 05:33PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Sorry, that should have been 10.5%, it was not a amount in money if that is what you took it as. Not sure what 10.5% in GDP terms would add to.

Apparently the GDP (for 2015) was just shy of 70 billion, so still a massive hit to the area.

Edit: Approximately 7.24 billion

reslfj · 26-02-2019 05:36PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The EU have already said that no member state will block an extension.

No one member will block

But if all or most members agree the UK has no plan for a constructive use of an A50 extension - the attitude can and will likely change.

Lars

Infini · 26-02-2019 05:36PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Jesus this is incredible reading. To think one of the largest economies in the world is on the cusp of this is outrageous.

To be fair Einstein said it best when people throw common sense and reason out the window...

RobMc59 · 26-02-2019 05:36PM

Has anyone noticed JRM,bojo and the likes of Mark francois have gone AWOL from the news?

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 26-02-2019 05:39PM

EKRIUQ wrote: »

It is, as in it will probably be up to the EU to tell the UK if they don't come up with a solution by June then it's no deal by default.

If they don't the UK will require extension after extension.

No-deal is the default position, if the EU has to tell the UK this at this stage they are well and truly bolloxed.

BobbyBobberson · 26-02-2019 05:42PM

Infini wrote: »

To be fair Einstein said it best when people throw common sense and reason out the window...

Do you know what else I have noticed. This British twee thing that many British institutions project. "Oh us? Oh we simply like queuing, putting up the rain and drinking tea" The new british airways ad ends exactly like that if any of you have seen it. And the reality? They are all tearing the arse of each other and govt is warning about food shortages. Went well the last time.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCJ_hNThGp4

Leroy42 · 26-02-2019 05:42PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Has anyone noticed JRM,bojo and the likes of Mark francois have gone AWOL from the news?

JRM was on Sky News a little while ago.

Boris, yes he has certainly gone to ground and Francois is a nobody in reality, only coming to light because of that ridiculous staged "Fight them on the beeches" stunt.

Itssoeasy · 26-02-2019 05:46PM

So I've not been following today in detail but I watch a 1:50 minute video of Teresa May in the commons. So, let me get it straight. There will be a vote on Teresa mays deal on march 12th and if that is defeated then the next day there will be a vote of the no deal option and the day after there could be a vote on extending the A50 process. Do I have that mostly right ?

joe40 · 26-02-2019 05:47PM

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

The British Government have published their no-deal impact assessment.

Thanks for posting, great no nonsense report. They really are sleep walking into no deal. Scandalous it got this far.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 26-02-2019 05:49PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So I've not been following today in detail but I watch a 1:50 minute video of Teresa May in the commons. So, let me get it straight. There will be a vote on Teresa mays deal on march 12th and if that is defeated then the next day there will be a vote of the no deal option and the day after there could be a vote on extending the A50 process. Do I have that mostly right ?

Yes, general consensus seems to be that the no to no-deal vote will pass, but nobody has a clue what happens if they don't vote to seek extension on 14th... a whopping 15 days until Brexit.

It'd be hilarious if it wasn't such a disaster.

ilovesmybrick · 26-02-2019 05:52PM

joe40 wrote: »

Thanks for posting, great no nonsense report. They really are sleep walking into no deal. Scandalous it got this far.

I'll be the first to put up my hands and say that I'm quite biased in that I think this was an idiotic decision compounded by political incompetence. However, is there anything at all in that report that can be construed as anything other than a disaster? No wonder the UK government were dragging their heels on publication.

That being said, it may be enough to force the parliament to face a degree of reality, especially after today's developments. I wouldn't want to be a Welsh MP in a rural area that doesn't fight against a no deal based on that report.

Spanish Eyes · 26-02-2019 05:55PM

WA does not pass, tick
No Deal kicked out too, tick.
Extension passed, for what does anyone know? Do they even know themselves! I mean what is left to discuss anymore?

Will EU agree to an extension if has no real meaning.

I suppose the theory is that WA will be passed as No Deal is just not on.

Cannot understand why the No Deal vote was not put first. But anyway.

BobbyBobberson · 26-02-2019 05:56PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Yes, general consensus seems to be that the no to no-deal vote will pass, but nobody has a clue what happens if they don't vote to seek extension on 14th... a whopping 15 days until Brexit.

It'd be hilarious if it wasn't such a disaster.

Do you know what the UK needs, it needs like Scrooge moment in A Christmas Carol. Just to be taken out of their existence and be shown a)how they look to everyone outside of the uk and b)the pot of ****e they are about to go head first into.

ilovesmybrick · 26-02-2019 05:58PM

What Goes On in Those Brexit Talks in Brussels? ‘Nothing,’ Document Says

If this is really the case May will have to have something very concrete to get an extension.

The result, he said, was that Ms. May went into negotiations without a position and without anything to request. “She’s saying, ‘I need you to give me something. Tell me what it is,’ ” Professor Travers said...“The visit was just to win time, because content-wise it was nothing.”

Jamiekelly · 26-02-2019 06:06PM

The entire impact report is grim but the most worrying parts are clearly the tarrifs and Northern Ireland section 31-38.

-"The EU would introduce tariffs of around 70% on beef and 45% on lamb exports, and
10% on finished automotive vehicles."

-"Northern Ireland is particularly vulnerable given its
high proportion of, and reliance upon SMEs (75% of all private sector employment)
and the number of businesses who trade directly with Ireland (Northern Ireland’s
largest international export market). The agri-food sector is a disproportionately
large part of Northern Ireland’s economy and located predominantly in border / rural
areas. It is particularly vulnerable given its reliance on cross-border supply chains
in the production stage and in finished products"

The DUP can try and spin that however they wish, that's a disaster that can't be glossed over. No amount of "leave means leave" and "the will of the people" Brexiteer slogan slinging will keep the DUP safe in an election if there's a no deal Brexit. Between tarrifs of 45-70% being introduced and cross border integration with the Republic being ripped apart, NI won't have much of an agriculture sector left if the DUP get their way. How can anyone actually campaign for this?

-"Overall, the cumulative impact from a ‘no deal’ scenario is expected to be more
severe in Northern Ireland than in Great Britain, and to last for longer. This is
because of Northern Ireland’s unique circumstances, including in particular its
geographical position as the only part of the UK with a land border with the EU, and
the current lack of an Executive in Northern Ireland."

Interesting that they now have no problem pointing out the lack of Stormont in NI as a unique circumstance. They could have put plenty of other examples in place of that but didn't. They would usually skirt around it just to play safe. Also the DUP have been very soft in their language as of late so I suspect they may have been told firmly by TM that direct rule from Westminster is temporary and that she could throw the DUP under the bus by calling an election any time she pleases.

Imreoir2 · 26-02-2019 06:07PM

Having looked through it, I think this is one of the most significant sections:

Despite communications from the Government, there is little evidence that businesses are preparing in earnest for a no deal scenario, and evidence indicates that readiness of small and medium-sized enterprises in particular is low. For example, without an Economic Operator Registration and Identification (EORI) number, businesses would not be able to complete the necessary customs documentation for goods they are importing. As an EORI number registration is one of the most basic and straightforward parts of the process most businesses would need to undertake to prepare for no deal, this is assumed to be a generous indicator of overall readiness. As of February 2019 there had only been around 40,000 registrations for an EORI number, against an estimate of around 240,000 EU-only trading businesses. There is capacity to sign up 11,000 businesses per day, and so this position could change rapidly with behaviour change from businesses. In practice, the UK’s approach is based on, in the short-term, allowing hauliers to pass through the border without stopping, but they would be stopped if taking goods into France without the right paperwork. The lack of preparation for EU controls - of which this is an example - greatly increases the probability of disruption.

Less than 20% of EU-only trading UK businesses have completed "the most basic and straightforward parts of the process" to be able to trade with the EU post Brexit.

The population of the UK is clearly living in fantisy land when it comes to the reality of what is faceing them. If there was a no-deal Brexit on March 29th it would take nearly a month just to get all of the business that need an EORI number registered for one. Can you imagine the chaos in April when well over half of UK businesses that trade with the EU realise that they can't get the paperwork they need to continue trading and it could take a month before they can sort it out?

Expectations of traffic jams in Dover may well be exagerated, they wont have the bloody paperwork to leave the country so why bother driving down in the first place!

Itssoeasy · 26-02-2019 06:20PM

It's interesting to hear the R&A pipe up in relation to the open championship this year which is being held at royal port rush in Northern Ireland. They said they've a load of containers to ship starting in April for the event in June and they wanted clarity on what would happen ? You'd forget sometimes that sporting events aren't immune from brexit.

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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