UFC/MMA LOG 2019

worst possible start

-58


BET 3

Aldo pts 12/5
10 pp

Oliveira sub 6/4
maia sub 6/4
4 double


Charles Oliveira v David Teymur - Method of Victory
Charles Oliveira by Submission
6/4
Demian Maia v Lyman Good - Method of Victory
Demian Maia by Submission
6/4
Jose Aldo v Renato Moicano - Method of Victory
Jose Aldo by Points
12/5
Marlon Moraes v Raphael Assuncao - Method of Victory
Marlon Moraes by Points
15/8
Stake:
€1.00
Potential Returns:
€61.09

Accumulator (x1)
Marlon Moraes v Raphael Assuncao - Method of Victory
Marlon Moraes by Points
15/8
Johnny Walker v Justin Ledet - Method of Victory
Johnny Walker by KO/TKO
6/4
Charles Oliveira v David Teymur - Method of Victory
Charles Oliveira by Submission
6/4
Demian Maia v Lyman Good - Method of Victory
Demian Maia by Submission
6/4
Jose Aldo v Renato Moicano - Method of Victory
Jose Aldo by Points
12/5
Stake:
€0.50
Potential Returns:
€76.37


4 Folds (x5)
Marlon Moraes v Raphael Assuncao - Method of Victory
Marlon Moraes by Points
15/8
Johnny Walker v Justin Ledet - Method of Victory
Johnny Walker by KO/TKO
6/4
Charles Oliveira v David Teymur - Method of Victory
Charles Oliveira by Submission
6/4
Demian Maia v Lyman Good - Method of Victory
Demian Maia by Submission
6/4
Jose Aldo v Renato Moicano - Method of Victory
Jose Aldo by Points
12/5
Stake:
€2.50
Potential Returns:
€140.66


Trebles (x4)
Charles Oliveira v David Teymur - Method of Victory
Charles Oliveira by Submission
6/4
Demian Maia v Lyman Good - Method of Victory
Demian Maia by Submission
6/4
Jose Aldo v Renato Moicano - Method of Victory
Jose Aldo by Points
12/5
Marlon Moraes v Raphael Assuncao - Method of Victory
Marlon Moraes by Points
15/8
Stake:
€4.00
Potential Returns:
€88.09

pp

BET 4

Whittaker by sub 20/1
4.50

whittaker sub
yahya sub
adesanya pts
kang sub
50c

pp


Might not happen but the sub odds are a tad too big imo

mailburner wrote: »

BET 4

Whittaker by sub 20/1
4.50

whittaker sub
yahya sub
adesanya pts
kang sub
50c

pp


Might not happen but the sub odds are a tad too big imo

-50c

mailburner wrote: »

BET 5

Adesanya pts 13/5
7
coral

Kang sub 12/5
9
coral

Yahya sub 2/1
10
betv

1eu trixie on above three (yahya sub 7/4) coral



yahya
kang
adesanya
6 treble (ret 16.71)
betv

I see adesanya and silva doing a lot of dancing together without much contact.
yahya likes subs, has 20 of them and a bit surprising he's the underdog here.
Ishihara is imo the worst fighter on the ufc roster and he's facing a sub specialist here.

2/3, yahya could barely land a finger on simon.
staked 36/ret 68.04/+32.04


Staked 36.50/ret 68.04/+31.54

Total Staked 116.50/ret 93.04/-23.46

BET 7

myles jury on pts 13/2
5
betv only


jury pts 13/2
ngannou ko 11/4
luque pts 2/1
kron round one 2/1
4x1eu trebles
1 accum
betv

mailburner wrote: »

BET 6

Ngannou 13/8
20
skybet

staked 20
ret 52.50
+32.50

mailburner wrote: »

BET 7

myles jury on pts 13/2
5
betv only


jury pts 13/2
ngannou ko 11/4
luque pts 2/1
kron round one 2/1
4x1eu trebles
1 accum
betv

close but no cigar
-10

mailburner wrote: »

BET 8

fights to go the distance
jury fili
rivera sterling
holtzman lentz
luque barbarena
Kron caceres NOT to go the distance
5@6.32/1
betv

luque getting a ko with six seconds to spare scuppers this one
-5

Staked 35/ret 52.50/+17.50

Total Staked 151.50/ret 145.54/-5.96

BET 10

Dodson pts 11/2
5

blach ko 9/2
2


same two with de lima ko
1 treble

BET 12

diego 15/8
10

usman 6/4
14


same two with walker
3 treble (ret 34.83)


Price too good on diego, nothing between these two for me.
I've thought for a long time that usman is the one to beat woodley, time will
tell if I'm right.

mailburner wrote: »

BET 9


Santos 10/11
15


de lima by ko 9/4
5

Dodson 5/2
5

2 treble

Skybet

I'm not hugely confident of these but do think there's a bit of value possibly.

Yan looked outstanding last time out but who did he beat so far in his career?
Dodson's recent losses have been splits to marlon moraes and john lineker, ud losses to rivera and mighty mouse.

How yan is only 1/3 for this I'm not so sure, he may be that good but I think the bookies may be over reacting and I don't see
how Dodson can be 5/2

struve could sub de lima if he decided to go looking for a sub but struve rarely does what he's best at and no doubt they will
meet in the middle and bang which could mean a ko for either, de lima has a better chin and is a ko specialist and let's face it
you would end up in the poorhouse backing struve anyway

I love santos as a fighter and think 10/11 is a decent price, was much shorter a week ago also.
If he gets it done it might be in the first three but once it goes past three I'd be a bit worried given how tough blach is.

Santos is legit, struve was gone in the first but survived and once on top in round two it was easy for him, dodson outclassed
staked 27
ret 28.64
+1.64

mailburner wrote: »

BET 10


Dodson pts 11/2
5

blach ko 9/2
2


same two with de lima ko
1 treble

-8

mailburner wrote: »

BET 11


Johnny Walker 8/11
60
betway

Came close to going with my max bet on this as I can't see anything
other than a walker ko happening and in the first round at that.
Cirkunov needs to get johnny down or he's going to sleep imo.

That price will be shorter come fight time.

38 secs, like that..an absolute killer!
staked 60
ret 103.64
+43.64

mailburner wrote: »

BET 12

diego 15/8
10

usman 6/4
14


same two with walker
3 treble (ret 34.83)


Price too good on diego, nothing between these two for me.
I've thought for a long time that usman is the one to beat woodley, time will
tell if I'm right.

Gall exposed as just an average fighter here by diego who did what he was best at, the 5/2 midweek was huge.
Woodley had an off day though you can't fault usman.
Staked 27
Ret 98.58
+71.58

mailburner wrote: »

BET 13

walker rnd one 11/8
5

diego pts 10/3
3

usman pts 10/3
3

1 treble
skybet

Diego gets his first finish in 11 years, didn't have to sweat too hard
for the other two

Staked 12
ret 24.88
+12.88

staked 134/ret 255.75/+121.75

Total staked 285.50/Ret 401.29/+115.79

One of those rare nights where everything clicks and delighted to
be this far ahead after a nightmare start.
Hopefully someone didn't give up on me after the first bet.
I'm due a bad one now

BET 15

jds pts or ko 4/6
dariush 5/11
14 double


jds by ko round five 25/1
1

bet365

BET 16

Till masvida

time out in fight and fight to go the distance 9/2
10
pp

in the whatodds paddy section, refunding up to a tenner in a freebet on this
should this bet lose so a no brainer for me

mailburner wrote: »

BET 16

Till masvida

time out in fight and fight to go the distance 9/2
10
pp

in the whatodds paddy section, refunding up to a tenner in a freebet on this
should this bet lose so a no brainer for me

might have made more sense to back masvidal and time out at 8/1 having
backed him
-10

mailburner wrote: »

BET 17

Masvidal 2/1
11

oezdemir 2/1
5
skybet

masvidal pts 9/2
5

oezdemir sub or ko 4/1
4

1 double
bet365


I think there's value in masvidal but it'll be close, not willing to write off oezdemir just yet who looks like he might be over priced.
I do think if it goes the distance he probably will be beat though.

Oezd loss was harsh, thought he won it myself, masvidal gets it done though

staked 26
ret 33
+7

staked 35/ret 33/-2

Total Staked 363.5/ret 492.09/+128.59

Just a little annoyed to have made a loss on this one but no harm
done overall.

BET 19

Pettis pts 12/1
4

pettis pts
willis pts
1@90/1
pp

wasn't aware pettis and wb were in the same gym so that price is way
too big regardless

BET 20

Waterson 13/10
10

waterson
johnson
barboza
3@7/1

waterson
johnson
branch
barboza
2 returns 32.32

coral

BET 22

Barboza 4/5
50
888

long fancied barboza for this, think this is a bad match up for justin who just gets
hit far too easily.

BET 23


Osp by sub 5/2
9

pantoja pts 13/8
10

adesanya pts 2/1
7

2 treble

1 accum with dustin pts at 8/1
betfred

BET 25


time out in fight adesanya gastelum 2/1
10


time out in adesanya and poirier fights both at 2/1
4 double



adesanya 4/7
pantoja 8/13
osp 10/11
5 treble

betfred, seem to be biggest on every market tonight for a change.


Confident of making a profit tonight

mailburner wrote: »

staked 60/ret 57/-3

Total staked 535.50/ret 572.09/-36.59 (error in prev, should read 515 not 519)

two nice winners but maybe one bet too many.


BET 26

overeem
pavlovich
20@1.9
bet365

oleynik a great sub artist but I doubt he gets overeem down, he'll take
a lot of damage if he doesn't.

staked 20
ret 38.18
+18.18

I didn't have to sweat too hard for that one.

Total staked 555.50/ret 610.27/+54.77

mailburner wrote: »

BET 27

Hardy
Davis
Mac Donald
20 @ 2.04
bet365


All looked nailed on to me, davis beat mc geary easy enough before, rory is better all round than fitch and hardy will surely make short work of his opponent.
If there is a dodgy one it might be rory.

Not seeing a whole lot else on the ufc card, souza sub is just zero value at around 5/4, tempted by jim millers opponent and arlovski but not enough to bet on either.
mc gee/burns double at evens does appeal a little though.

2 winners 1 void
Staked 20
ret 31.78
+11.78

Total Staked 575.50/Ret 642.05/+66.55

Easy wins for hardy and davis, rory was ahead going into the 5th where fitch humped him for five mins in the last round, finished a draw, worst fight I watched in a long time.
Wouldn't be backing rory again in a hurry after that, poor performance by him.
Leaving the rest of the ufc card alone was a wise move though.

BET 29

Single
Swanson, Cub Points @ 5/2
Swanson v Burgos
Method Of Victory
Stake
£4.00
Est. Returns
£14.00

Single
Cerrone, Donald Submission @ 9/2
Iaquinta v Cerrone
Stake
£4.00
Est. Returns
£22.00


Treble
Theodorou, Elias Points @ 5/4
Brunson v Theodorou
Method Of Victory
Swanson, Cub Points @ 5/2
Swanson v Burgos
Method Of Victory
Cerrone, Donald Submission @ 9/2
Iaquinta v Cerrone

Stake
£2.00
Est. Returns
£86.63
Betfred

BET 30

alves v moraes

fight to go the distance - yes 4/5
20
skybet

BET 32

Single
Aldo, Jose Ko, Tko Or Disqualification @ 10/3
Volkanovski v Aldo
Method Of Victory
Stake
£4.00
Est. Returns
£17.33

Single
Silva, Anderson Points @ 15/8
Cannonier v Silva
Method Of Victory
Stake
£4.00
Est. Returns
£11.50


Single
Namajunas, Rose Points @ 3/1
Namajunas v Andrade
Stake
£3.00
Est. Returns
£12.00


Trixie
Aldo, Jose Ko, Tko Or Disqualification @ 10/3
Volkanovski v Aldo
Method Of Victory
Silva, Anderson Points @ 15/8
Cannonier v Silva
Method Of Victory
Namajunas, Rose Points @ 3/1
Namajunas v Andrade
Method Of Victory
£4.00
Est. Returns
£91.13
betfred

BET 34

luque sub
junior sub
3@11/1
pp

mailburner wrote: »

BET 30

alves v moraes

fight to go the distance - yes 4/5
20
skybet

47 seconds left
-20

mailburner wrote: »

BET 31


Namajunas 11/10
23

silva 11/10
15

silva
aldo
namajunas
4@6.35/1

namajunas is imo far to quick for andrade and if she can
avoid being knocked out I think she takes this comfortably and
she's never been knocked out although she's never faced a bull
like andrade before.
Silva went the distance with adesanya, should have no problem going the distance here and if
he does it should be very close.

I was going to back aldo at 17/20 earlier but best now is 4/6 which is no
value against a dangerous opponent.

Total domination by rose until that freak ko, just wasn't my night
-42

mailburner wrote: »

BET 32

Single
Aldo, Jose Ko, Tko Or Disqualification @ 10/3
Volkanovski v Aldo
Method Of Victory
Stake
£4.00
Est. Returns
£17.33

Single
Silva, Anderson Points @ 15/8
Cannonier v Silva
Method Of Victory
Stake
£4.00
Est. Returns
£11.50


Single
Namajunas, Rose Points @ 3/1
Namajunas v Andrade
Stake
£3.00
Est. Returns
£12.00


Trixie
Aldo, Jose Ko, Tko Or Disqualification @ 10/3
Volkanovski v Aldo
Method Of Victory
Silva, Anderson Points @ 15/8
Cannonier v Silva
Method Of Victory
Namajunas, Rose Points @ 3/1
Namajunas v Andrade
Method Of Victory
£4.00
Est. Returns
£91.13
betfred

-15

mailburner wrote: »

BET 33


Total stake:
€20.00
Potential returns:
€113.80

SINGLES
Vincente Luque v Derrick Krantz - Method of Victory
Vincente Luque by Submission
4/1
Stake:
€5.00
Potential returns:
€25.00

Antonio Carlos Junior v Ian Heinisch - Method of Victory
Antonio Carlos Junior by Submission
7/5
Stake:
€12.00
Potential returns:
€28.80



Trebles
19/1
1 line(s) at €3.00 per line
Vincente Luque v Derrick Krantz - Method of Victory
Vincente Luque by Submission
Antonio Carlos Junior v Ian Heinisch - Method of Victory
Antonio Carlos Junior by Submission
Charles Oliveira v Nik Lentz - Method of Victory
Charles Oliveira by Submission
Stake:
€3.00
Potential returns:
€60.00
Paddy Power

Liking the odds too much on junior when it's odds on elsewhere, same applies to luque by sub, not seeing any bigger than 5/2.
Oliveira too short for the sub win single.

another disaster
-20

mailburner wrote: »

BET 34

luque sub
junior sub
3@11/1
pp

-3

mailburner wrote: »

BET 35


Jimi Manuwa v Aleksandar Rakic
Jimi Manuwa - To Win By KO,TKO or Disqualification
(Method Of Victory - Match)
Odds: 7/2
Stake: 4.00
Possible Return: 18.00

Jimi Manuwa v Aleksandar Rakic
Jimi Manuwa
(To Win the Bout - Match)
Odds: 7/4
Stake: 11.00
Possible Return: 30.25

Betv



Don't trust manuwa but most of his losses have been to
the very best out there and rakic hasn't beaten anyone close
to manuwa's level yet.
The price looks too big to me.

short and sweet for rakic
-15

all lost
-115

Total Staked 732.50/Ret 683.05/-49.45

BET 37

Moraes round one 11/1
6

Moraes round two 11/1
4
bet365


Yan
Grasso
Chooka
4 returns 18.75
bet365

price on the round one ko is 4pts bigger than the next best on round one, fancy it to happen.

BET 39



365