Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

EdgeCase · 18-02-2019 01:50PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Interesting article saying we are headed to Salzburg part deux https://www.politico.eu/article/theresa-may-sets-course-for-brexit-disaster-no-deal-withdrawal-treaty/

Essentially May is running down the clock until the last week, will then present a suit of Alternative Arrangements , none of which likely to be agreed by EU, then she can turn around and blame EU for a no deal.

The problem with that is that while it may appeal to British tabloids, the EU and its members don't care. I mean what difference does it make? It's domestic politics.

The Tories seem to be incapable of distinguishing international politics from domestic politics and realising that there are different audiences / publics to be addressed.

I mean what's the plan after that? Blame the EU on self inflicted poverty? Then what?
You can't eat smugness.

Zubeneschamali · 18-02-2019 02:06PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

I mean what's the plan after that? Blame the EU on self inflicted poverty?

Yes - the idea seems to be that as long as the British public blame the EU, she can say she delivered the Will of the People and the Tories do not get destroyed at the next election, so she is a success as PM.

Horribly destructive to the UK, but apparently she doesn't care about that.

Valhallapt · 18-02-2019 02:10PM

EdgeCase wrote: »

I mean what's the plan after that? Blame the EU on self inflicted poverty? Then what?
You can't eat smugness.

That’s the point, she’s given up on actually solving the issue, just playing to the domestic audience, look I fought the good fight but the EU and Ireland were unreasonable, they are the cause of our troubles.

eagle eye · 18-02-2019 02:12PM

Zubeneschamali wrote:

Horribly destructive to the UK, but apparently she doesn't care about that.

Again I'm going to get called pro-Brexit fir this but I don't care because I know I'm not.
It's always destructive to the EU because it's a major player exiting. It's destructive to the ROI because there are lots of businesses who will go to the wall over Brexit, there's the risk of the troubles reigniting too.
It's not just one side losing out here.

Zubeneschamali · 18-02-2019 02:17PM

eagle eye wrote: »

It's always destructive to the EU because it's a major player exiting. It's destructive to the ROI because there are lots of businesses who will go to the wall over Brexit, there's the risk of the troubles reigniting too. It's not just one side losing out here.

All true, but when May does not even care about the damage to the UK (as long as the Tories dodge the blame), she is scarcely going to care about damage to Ireland and the EU. In fact, that damage may be a bonus for her with the Little Englander faction.

tuxy · 18-02-2019 02:21PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

As for NI hell with them, they decided to refuse an option which would have made the counties thrive making best of both worlds.

Who's the current leader of NI that decided this?

VinLieger · 18-02-2019 02:21PM

tuxy wrote: »

Who's the current leader of NI that decided this?

Sammy wilson, the DUP's brexit spokesperson in westminster

breatheme · 18-02-2019 02:23PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Again I'm going to get called pro-Brexit fir this but I don't care because I know I'm not.
It's always destructive to the EU because it's a major player exiting. It's destructive to the ROI because there are lots of businesses who will go to the wall over Brexit, there's the risk of the troubles reigniting too.
It's not just one side losing out here.

True. Everyone's a loser, but the UK caused it, and it is the UK's fault and its problem to fix.

volchitsa · 18-02-2019 02:24PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Again I'm going to get called pro-Brexit fir this but I don't care because I know I'm not.
It's always destructive to the EU because it's a major player exiting. It's destructive to the ROI because there are lots of businesses who will go to the wall over Brexit, there's the risk of the troubles reigniting too.
It's not just one side losing out here.

That may well be, but we can hardly stop the UK from leaving, can we?

So the question now is how to respond to the UK's decision to leave. Telling them we don't want them to leave only gets us so far. It certainly doesn't prove that we can or should consider that Ireland's interests are best served by prioritising the UK's interests now they are leaving. In fact it's almost certain that they won't have the same interests as us now.

Leroy42 · 18-02-2019 02:31PM

Of course TM is thinking of domestic politics, like Trump that is all that matters.

The longer term effects are not going to be her problem, she is focused solely on 1) staying as leader, 2) Tories staying in government 3) Tories staying united.

How she will be seen within the EU is not really going to effect her since a large portion of her electorate actively hate everything about the EU.

So she is faced with a choice. Go to the EU and find a compromise that will avoid a hard crash out but will be seen domestically as traitorish and she will probably be forced from power or play hard ball with the EU and either get the deal she can sell at home (and thus secure her power) or be portrayed as the Iron Lady standing up for GB against the tyranny of the EU.

Its a no brainer at this stage.

EdgeCase · 18-02-2019 02:42PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Again I'm going to get called pro-Brexit fir this but I don't care because I know I'm not.
It's always destructive to the EU because it's a major player exiting. It's destructive to the ROI because there are lots of businesses who will go to the wall over Brexit, there's the risk of the troubles reigniting too.
It's not just one side losing out here.

The Irish economy is still growing at fastest level in the EU and loads of financial and services businesses are moving assets and staff here. It will have a negative impact on some sectors, it may well have a very positive impact on FDI.

As much as I would prefer partition never happened, the troubles occured primarily in the UK. Northern Ireland is in the UK and that's where any major problems would occurr.

I find it odd how NI is British when it suits and Irish when it causes problems.

Water John · 18-02-2019 02:43PM

HOC I believe won't allow No Deal Brexit, whatever TM thinks. Play the game to the wire if that's what she wants to do.

ancapailldorcha · 18-02-2019 02:43PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Again I'm going to get called pro-Brexit fir this but I don't care because I know I'm not.
It's always destructive to the EU because it's a major player exiting. It's destructive to the ROI because there are lots of businesses who will go to the wall over Brexit, there's the risk of the troubles reigniting too.
It's not just one side losing out here.

I've argued plenty of times that the UK's exit hurts the EU and makes it lesser as a result and not in terms of security cooperation or net contributions. The UK is a great country and it is currently being led by those who are least deserving of that honor. I'm not referring to May here but Farage, Johnson, Gove, etc who agitated for this on behalf of mysterious foreign influences and then flew the coop (with the possible exception of Gove).

VinLieger · 18-02-2019 02:46PM

Water John wrote: »

HOC I believe won't allow No Deal Brexit, whatever TM thinks. Play the game to the wire if that's what she wants to do.

The only problem is currently theres no majority able to agree on what they want instead of no deal

BobbyBobberson · 18-02-2019 02:48PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've argued plenty of times that the UK's exit hurts the EU and makes it lesser as a result and not in terms of security cooperation or net contributions. The UK is a great country and it is currently being led by those who are least deserving of that honor. I'm not referring to May here but Farage, Johnson, Gove, etc who agitated for this on behalf of mysterious foreign influences and then flew the coop (with the possible exception of Gove).

Agree completely. I feel Gove is playing quiet the smart game. He left, got in again with Defra and is pursuing the brief quite strongly. I have never seen so much environment policies referenced as I have since he took charge this is especially true when compared with other departments.

My own personal view is hes waiting to pick up the PM job post March 29th.

briany · 18-02-2019 02:52PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

My own personal view is hes waiting to pick up the PM job post March 29th.

If Gove got the job, you'd have a PM who was a vocal critic of the Good Friday Agreement, having written a pamphlet in 2000 called, 'The Price of Peace'.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/michael-gove-a-fanatic-who-would-damage-peace-process-1.2710224

That would be a bad development in terms of keeping the Peace Process on track in a post-Brexit, no-deal Northern Ireland.

BobbyBobberson · 18-02-2019 02:55PM

briany wrote: »

If Gove got the job, you'd have a PM who was a vocal critic of the Good Friday Agreement, having written a pamphlet in 2000 called, 'The Price of Peace'.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/michael-gove-a-fanatic-who-would-damage-peace-process-1.2710224

That would be a bad development in terms of keeping the Peace Process on track in a post-Brexit, no-deal Northern Ireland.

I know, that's the scary part. I was a teacher in London when he sec for education and never seen a minister so universally hated.

Harry Palmr · 18-02-2019 03:08PM

Honda to close Swindon according to SKY, given they do not have a great exposure to diesel slump will this be pinned on Brexit or something else.

L1011 · 18-02-2019 03:09PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

I know, that's the scary part. I was a teacher in London when he sec for education and never seen a minister so universally hated.

Hunt in Health was probably more hated, but considering either can be seen as a benchmark for most hated, there may not be much to separate them.

CelticRambler · 18-02-2019 03:15PM

Despite TM's sweet-talking to the Japanese back in the early post-referendum days, it sounds like that particular relationship has turned very sour. First Nissan, now Honda, and the Guardian is reporting that Jeremy Hunt & Liam Fox have offended their negotiating partners by an unfortunate choice of words. However, apart from diplomatically mis-speaking, this description sounds awfully similar to the David Davis supposed "photo op":

The newspaper [The FT] also reported that Japanese trade officials were growing frustrated with their British counterparts, who had arrived at meetings without specialists capable of taking the talks forward.

lawred2 · 18-02-2019 03:17PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Despite TM's sweet-talking to the Japanese back in the early post-referendum days, it sounds like that particular relationship has turned very sour. First Nissan, now Honda, and the Guardian is reporting that Jeremy Hunt & Liam Fox have offended their negotiating partners by an unfortunate choice of words. However, apart from diplomatically mis-speaking, this description sounds awfully similar to the David Davis supposed "photo op":

But I thought people had grown tired of experts!?

Or does that not extend to trade negotiations?

Are these Tory lads beyond being embarrassed at this stage?

Calina · 18-02-2019 03:21PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Honda to close Swindon according to SKY, given they do not have a great exposure to diesel slump will this be pinned on Brexit or something else.

Those 3500 jobs will be more. Honda almost certainly has suppliers.

eagle eye · 18-02-2019 03:25PM

ancapailldorcha wrote:

I've argued plenty of times that the UK's exit hurts the EU and makes it lesser as a result and not in terms of security cooperation or net contributions. The UK is a great country and it is currently being led by those who are least deserving of that honor. I'm not referring to May here but Farage, Johnson, Gove, etc who agitated for this on behalf of mysterious foreign influences and then flew the coop (with the possible exception of Gove).

Fully agree with this but I'd include May as it's clear she is only concerned with her own agenda.

18-02-2019 03:26PM

Calina wrote: »

Those 3500 jobs will be more. Honda almost certainly has suppliers.

+1 The supplier network has to be enormous, it will be a huge hit.

intellectual dosser · 18-02-2019 03:27PM

Water John wrote: »

HOC I believe won't allow No Deal Brexit, whatever TM thinks. Play the game to the wire if that's what she wants to do.

I don't think they're in a position to not allow it. They cant shoot TM down at every vote thinking that No Deal can simply be avoided when the time comes.

Its TM that will ultimately have to bring whatever fudge of the WA they agree on back to the EU for negotiation, thus is will have to be the Tories who table that motion in the first place.

I honestly think this deadlock in Westminster will not be unlocked before March 29th. Around mid-March they will agree on extending Article 50 and kick the can down the road. Whether the EU accepts their reasoning for extending is then another matter.

ancapailldorcha · 18-02-2019 03:27PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Fully agree with this but I'd include May as it's clear she is only concerned with her own agenda.

Whatever about May's deep and myriad flaws, she didn't hop on a bus to peddle lies to the public to entice them to vote for Economic ruination under the guise of regaining freedom, resources and capital.

Seth Brundle · 18-02-2019 03:28PM

SKY article on as-yet unanounced Honda closure - Honda to stun ministers with closure of Swindon factory

LuckyLloyd · 18-02-2019 03:30PM

Honda's announcement sits with previous announcements in that space and the weekly reports of assets being moved from the UK to Dublin or other places in the EU. And all of this fits the timelines and narrative we've been working with. Weeks ahead of No Deal with nothing agreed, businesses are starting to kick contingency planning into gear in ways that are tangible and visible to the public. Of course Brexit has been having an effect before this point, but it manifested as delayed / diverted investment decisions or general inertia. We're now moving into the next phase for larger corporations. Small and medium businesses may not have the luxury, and they'll end up reacting post March 30 rather than making their moves ahead of time.

Tell me how · 18-02-2019 03:30PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I've argued plenty of times that the UK's exit hurts the EU and makes it lesser as a result and not in terms of security cooperation or net contributions. The UK is a great country and it is currently being led by those who are least deserving of that honor. I'm not referring to May here but Farage, Johnson, Gove, etc who agitated for this on behalf of mysterious foreign influences and then flew the coop (with the possible exception of Gove).

Agree with this.

Brexit is the subject matter but the real story is the collapse of the UK as a leader on the world stage not least through the manner in which it is has been corrupted by individuals focused on their own desires.

I too would give some leeway (but not absolve her entirely) to May in this respect.

Also, it's looking pretty clear that the person with some of the biggest influence on the global stage over the last 3 years or so is Putin.

It remains to be seen just what his endgame is, just having Trump in power and the UK leaving the EU are parts of a wider plan I suspect.

VinLieger · 18-02-2019 03:36PM

Calina wrote: »

Those 3500 jobs will be more. Honda almost certainly has suppliers.

The knock ons from these factory closures are going to be massive but dont seem to be part of the story when these announcements are made

Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

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