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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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    #512
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users Posts: 9,636 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    The raging PV is bottling up serious cold that will have to be released at some point - sooner rather than later would be best IMO


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    #513
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    The raging PV is bottling up serious cold that will have to be released at some point - sooner rather than later would be best IMO

    By the time the current mild spell ends we'll already be past the worthwhile cold spell stage, anything from mid February onwards means daytime melting and slush no matter how cold the airmass is.


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    #514
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Models trending very mild or even warm (by February standards) for later next week. ECM 12z is particularly mild and as extreme as it gets I think so maybe an outlier. GFS 12z delays the warmth and doesn't get quite as far west.

    D04rLbf.png

    dZ7yQHG.png

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    #515
    q85dw7osi4lebg
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭q85dw7osi4lebg


    What's the origin of said warmth ?


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    #516
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Seems quite plausible sryanbruen. We seem to be well entrenched in mild Southerlies as heights build and HP becomes established over Europe.

    The big LP in the Atlantic helping the Southerlies along also.

    anim_ior3.gif

    anim_oqm5.gif

    anim_bdu2.gif

    3OWi9U6.png


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    #517
    Ultimate Seduction
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,464 ✭✭✭Ultimate Seduction


    Any clear, sunshine days on the horizon? Seems a waste of mild weather when it comes with a driving, wet wind. Still can't do anything outside.


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    #518
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Ultimate Seduction wrote: »
    Any clear, sunshine days on the horizon? Seems a waste of mild weather when it comes with a driving, wet wind. Still can't do anything outside.

    Sunshine is hard to predict. If the ECM was to verify above, it would be very settled. It's a setup that is nearly akin to late March 2012 if you can remember that period although of course a month earlier than that so there would be some possible differences.

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    #519
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    The UK and Ireland won't be alone in the very mild conditions, the majority of Europe will. The map shows the temperature anomalies from the GFS 12z for 26th February 2019 - a complete flip around from 2018 when the map would be all blue from the Beast being unleashed.

    4qYhxgV.jpg

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    #520
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Very mild or warm over the next 2 to 3 weeks, this isn't just confined to the UK and Ireland, but stretches all the way from Galway Bay to Tokyo in the long range forecasts. A very warm trench of above average temperatures stretching from Ireland through Europe, into Russia and eastwards into the Asian continent over the next 3 weeks.


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    #521
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,109 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Monkeynut wrote: »
    Why is north Africa all blue, well mostly?

    It's colder than usual :)


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    #522
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Very mild or warm over the next 2 to 3 weeks, this isn't just confined to the UK and Ireland, but stretches all the way from Galway Bay to Tokyo in the long range forecasts. A very warm trench of above average temperatures stretching from Ireland through Europe, into Russia and eastwards into the Asian continent over the next 3 weeks.

    Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.


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    #523
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.

    latest ensembles show a cooling trend into the first week of March, with temperatures becoming more average.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-02-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

    There is certainly the possibility that March could be a colder month overall then December and February which were both very mild. Temperatures for most of this February are 3 to 6C above average, on some days close to 10C above average, I doubt this level of above average temperatures would be maintained through March. We will probably end up with the mild side of average for March.


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    #524
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    ukmaxtemp.pngh850t850eu.png


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    #525
    Artane2002
    Registered Users Posts: 1,986 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    The GFS has a cold bias so it might go higher than 17c on that chart...


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    #526
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    we could get close to Ireland's February high temperature record being broken next Sunday if it's warm and sunny enough. Our temperature record is currently 18.1C at the Phoenix Park in 1891.


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    #527
    WhiteMemento9
    Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.

    Is there actual science behind this that weather tries to balance out as it just sounds like completely made up nonsense?


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    #528
    MidMan25
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭MidMan25


    WhiteMemento9 wrote: »
    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Not good news as the odds are even more likely that we will have a cold spring to make up for all these mild conditions.

    Is there actual science behind this that weather tries to balance out as it just sounds like completely made up nonsense?

    The science is that temp and rainfall tend to average out over 12 months.


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    #529
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,643 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Artane2002 wrote: »
    The GFS has a cold bias so it might go higher than 17c on that chart...

    It's unsual to see temperatures depicted to be higher in parts of Ireland than the South of East England,. As someone said will nature balance this out during the summer by giving us well belove average temperatures,courtesy of a north easterly. I would be surprised if we don't get well below average temperatures during the spring at some point. A cold period around st patricks day, perhaps?


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    #530
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,880 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Maybe this year will be warm and next year cold!

    Certainly the past few years Ive seen very few double digit temperatures in February.

    But dont be fooled. It will be 14c and lashing rain in July because of this


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    #531
    Neddyusa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,010 ✭✭✭Neddyusa


    Yep...have a bad feeling this year is shaping up like 2012. And even for a country that specialises in miserable summer weather, that one was exceptional!


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    #532
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,643 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    It's game on again towards the end of February, at least for parts of England, according to the Latest GFS. No doubt it will be gone again on the next run.


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    #533
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    nacho libre wrote: »
    It's game on again towards the end of February, at least for parts of England, according to the Latest GFS. No doubt it will be gone again on the next run.

    not sure if we're getting into serious territory first week of March but there is certainly a rapid cooling trend. The ensembles are going from the +5 to 10C range at 850hPA end of February to the -5 to -10C range at 850hPA range by end of first week of March. We will certainly need the heaters on and jumpers at the ready for March.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2019-02-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=


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    #534
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,118 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Gonzo wrote: »
    not sure if we're getting into serious territory first week of March but there is certainly a rapid cooling trend. The ensembles are going from the +5 to 10C range at 850hPA end of February to the -5 to -10C range at 850hPA range by end of first week of March. We will certainly need the heaters on and jumpers at the ready for March.

    ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=18&date=2019-02-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=


    That will be a disaster. No other words for it.


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    #535
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,513 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM 0z was a bit of an outlier but damn it goes absolutely mental with those mild/warm 850hPa temps.

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    #536
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Showing 14C 850hPa temps for the 27th, would be some contrast to that time last year!

    ECM1-48_fxj3.GIF

    ECM1-240_pfw3.GIF


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    #537
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,473 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    No comparison.

    tempresult_bfb5.gif

    -14 could be +14 850 temps this year


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    #538
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    This is the sort of chart I really want to see from end of May to beginning to September but not in February. A waste of warmth that would be so much welcomed in the summer.

    ECMOPEU00_240_1.png


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    #539
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Any chance that these charts are wrong? After all it wasn't that long ago that some charts were showing that the country would be in a deep freeze by the end of February. I find it hard to imagine temperatures touching 20C in February.


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    #540
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,716 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Any chance that these charts are wrong? After all it wasn't that long ago that some charts were showing that the country would be in a deep freeze by the end of February.

    There is alot of confidence and cross model agreement on this raging High Pressure setup. The Deep Freeze that failed had very little confidence and support away from those terrible long range models. It never really made it into the more reliable shorter range charts.


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    #541
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just looking at the charts from the 24th out to the 27th , looks like we could get colder air sourced from Europe drawn into the Anticyclone in the lower levels. Would expect the charts to show higher temperatures but presently showing them in the low to mid teens. I suspect we could get an inversion layer with the 12C to 14C 850hPa temps being shown.

    anim_xcp7.gif


    anim_rny7.gif

    pVc12iH.png

    wPYMjTc.png

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