FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Donegal Storm

Gonzo wrote: »

This is the sort of chart I really want to see from end of May to beginning to September but not in February. A waste of warmth that would be so much welcomed in the summer.

It'll hopefully kick start some Spring growth though, would be nice to have a proper Spring this year after last years affair where it was late April before trees were in leaf

sryanbruen

Another very mild ECM 12z. The UK and Ireland having the mildest conditions on our latitude.

km79

Donegal Storm wrote: »

It'll hopefully kick start some Spring growth though, would be nice to have a proper Spring this year after last years affair where it was late April before trees were in leaf

Absolutely

Artane2002

GFS Parallel is apparently going to become the GFS OP on March 20th. But it could be delayed because of a cold bias, which pretty much all of us model watchers know all about.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/?mbid=social_twitter_onsiteshare

Gonzo

looking chilly and unsettled towards end 1st week of March. I get the feeling March will not play out the same way as December-February as we lose this long run of exceptionally mild conditions.

Just for fun: could be some wintry conditions on high ground at least by the 7th. Even without any precipitation, this first week of March could feel very cold compared to the Winter heatwave of the coming weekend and into next week.



GFS Para looks a bit chilly on the 5th.



some of the lower resolutions gfs members also going for some chilly conditions in first week of March with the Jet going well to our south.





Very much to be taken with a pinch of salt, this is a long way out, but first week of March certainly looks to be turning more unsettled and certainly cooler than the current run of very mild conditions.

JCX BXC

This is the time of winter where you hope the average bias persists. After early march there's rarely any use to cold snaps.

Meteorite58

ECM has been trending colder for the start of March also these last few runs . The Jet seems to go more S of us but may be temporary with the jet getting back to a more meridional type flow with alternating Atlantic type weather perhaps giving interludes of Cold NW'lys and deep LP's and associated cold and warm fronts .

Meteorite58

ECM had been showing some very active weather next weekend but completely dropped it on the 12Z run. An Outlier ?

GFS has been showing a very deep low too around next Sun /Mon now for a few runs. On the latest run it is bombing just off the W /NW down to 947 hPa .

The Jet looks very active close to / over Ireland that weekend according to the ECM / GFS .

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z and previous run back showing a period of unsettled weather with wind and rain from the weekend, colder uppers also leading to convection giving hail and thunder and big convective gusts at times and with the sun getting stronger cells having a bit more power in them as we move into the Spring.

Maybe some wintry precipitation on high ground Sunday into Monday , thundery looking and cold day Sunday , blustery with windchill .

Birdnuts

Tonights ECM suggests "Payback Time" is at hand;)

Harry Palmr

Looks like a bit of storm a brewing for next midweek.

Mortelaro

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1100395736561258498?s=19

Danno

This morning's 06z GFS run is giving a potential for some snow over Thursday night into Friday morning next week (7th and 8th of March)

Snow depths:



Might be a surprise for some following this week's mild where we hit 14.3c in south Laois.

Gonzo

mid week next week certainly looks chilly compared to what we've become used to, possibly some snow on high ground. Temperature's would be close to 8C colder than yesterday in many areas.

Gaoth Laidir

Danno wrote: »

This morning's 06z GFS run is giving a potential for some snow over Thursday night into Friday morning next week (7th and 8th of March)

Snow depths:



Might be a surprise for some following this week's mild where we hit 14.3c in south Laois.

Or maybe no surprise whatsoever as it's just the GFS.

Meteorite58

Far away and no certainty but the ECM showing some cold charts. That Low to the N of Scotland helping to steer down a very cold air mass. The Jet more to the S of us on these charts letting the colder polar air sink down over us.

We are all well aware how time and again the cold charts failed to materialise this winter but looking at the current crop there is a cold theme showing I think into mid march. Of course the Sun is rising and strengthening but it looks to me like the type of weather that could still be wintry at times with plenty of hail showers and thunder possible with big cloudscapes . Possible white ridges on Mountains at times with the odd bit of white to lower levels perhaps if those charts for around +240 hrs were to verify. Entering a new phase of weather, the warm southerlies will be thing of the past rather quickly, colder nights and tons of fresh cold air in off the Atlantic.

Another folly to chase or the real thing !

Time will tell.



















GFS similar.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z looking unsettled especially next weekend , showing a series of depressions being whipped by a very strong jet . ATM these are showing up towards the Northern end of the country and can and do drift North away from Ireland but at least looks windy and wet and with low uppers a share of the time with fronts going through could be wintry at times also. Showing one very stormy period out at the end of the run but this is better viewed as a trend atm.

Gonzo

It seems Winter was delayed by 3 months, Cold Winter style conditions looks to be having it's revenge, with the mild sent it's bags packing.

Looks cold and wintry from next Sunday 10th of March to about the 16th of March with Ireland placed on the cold side of the jetstream.

Potential for unsettled and wintry conditions beginning next Sunday. Snow looks possible, especially over high ground.

Rebelbrowser

Plenty more cold shots this month on tonight's model suite

Harry Palmr

Sure if "Patty's Day" is coming so is the cold. Twas ever thus.

YanSno

March in general is looking to be on the cooler side. We will have more of these types of scenarios what we just had the weekend with different locations having some sort of wintry weather and also as usual altitude does come in play. This could be the theme until mid March. It's likely that high pressure will be close by around the 3rd week of March it will be dry and settled. Last week of March could turn out to be very cold with a possible North Easterly with high pressure shifting north.

Meteorite58

Yeah again the ECM looks very windy and wet with what looks like wintry interludes at times from early next weekend. Numerous LP's being spun out of the very lively Jet which varies f

rom lying over us to below us and currently looks like patterns of alternating abrupt plunges of milder moisture laden airmas to cold or very cold upper airmas sweeping over us as the weekend progresses into the early days of the following week. Has the look of wintry weather all right as Gonzo said above especially around the 11 -12th.

GFS is showing very disturbed weather this Sat / Sun with a direct hit from a nasty looking storm ( ECM not showing it as strong or the same track so big uncertainty and would lean more towards the ECM ) but with the Jet that fast over us the weekend coming it is too early to know any exact details at this stage only that there is potential for very windy /wet /wintry and possibly thundery weather.

GEM also showing unsettled conditions.



850 hPa winds

typhoony

GFS 18Z showing sustained wind speeds of 74mph Saturday night through into early hours of sunday off the South Coast, that's Hurricane force for anyone that's interested.

Gonzo

typhoony wrote: »

GFS 18Z showing sustained wind speeds of 74mph Saturday night through into early hours of sunday off the South Coast, that's Hurricane force for anyone that's interested.

That's going to be a wicked wind chill on Saturday/Sunday.

Gonzo

A cold spell still looking likely from next Sunday, but maybe not as intense as what was showing yesterday. Still looks wintry for first half of next week. After Saint Patricks Day there are signs that things could settle down nicely and become much milder, even warm with high pressure. This is a long way off, but it would be nice to get a few settled and pleasantly mild or warm days.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

A cold spell still looking likely from next Sunday, but maybe not as intense as what was showing yesterday. Still looks wintry for first half of next week. After Saint Patricks Day there are signs that things could settle down nicely and become much milder, even warm with high pressure. This is a long way off, but it would be nice to get a few settled and pleasantly mild or warm days.

Can't post pics but the same GFS 6z has Paddys weekend as being very cold indeed. -6 and -8 uppers widely over the weekend.

Gonzo

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Can't post pics but the same GFS 6z has Paddys weekend as being very cold indeed. -6 and -8 uppers widely over the weekend.

the differences between the operational GFS and the GFS Parallel are wide in FI. GFS has the warm and settled spell after Saint Patricks Day while the GFS Parallell is a colder and more unsettled pattern. The GFS-P has quite a stormy and cold setup for Paddy's day with a cool and showery setup after that, compared to the GFS Operational.

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

the differences between the operational GFS and the GFS Parallel are wide in FI. GFS has the warm and settled spell after Saint Patricks Day while the GFS Parallell is a colder and more unsettled pattern. The GFS-P has quite a stormy and cold setup for Paddy's day with a cool and showery setup after that, compared to the GFS Operational.

I use an Italian app (which someone here linked to last year) when looking at the models in quick overview. Didn't realise they had made the GFS parallel the default GFS model. Until about a week ago it was the old GFS they used.

nacho libre

The last week of March could be interesting if the high ends up going north. I know i'm in the minority here but i would love to experience an event like April 1917.

Tacklebox

nacho libre wrote: »

The last week of March could be interesting if the high ends up going north. I know i'm in the minority here but i would love to experience an event like April 1917.

Anything is possible, i think there's a nice article somewhere about it.

It was written by a Clare man or in Clare by someone who had a creative mind.

I think it started in Tulla in East Clare, a cold airflow came in, and it started lightly and turned into a record proportion of snow fall....