Cheltenham Antepost

Leslie Purkiss · 08-02-2019 11:52am

posturingpat wrote: »

The KG form I think should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Waiting patiently and Bdm out of the race early,Politologue didn't jump or travel which for a 2 miler stepping up in trip wouldve been what you'd think he definitely would do.
Native river only got going when the race was over so CDO beat a ten year old injury prone Thistlecrack with his best days behind him by 1and a half lengths or so, albeit visually impressive.
I'm finding it hard to find the value in the Gold cup and was hoping CDO would be it but after watching the King George back a few times I think it's not worth following. Who's going to be the big 20/1 shock winner
Maybe Elliott's mare, she loved that hill last year but it was over much shorter and hasn't had the chance to get battle hardened this season but should be a big price on the day.

Excellent analysis Pat. Can’t disagree with a word.

It’s very hard to look beyond PP. Everything stacks up with him given the runs of Monalee and EE at Christmas.

Shattered Love is a great mare but very very ground dependant.

I am giving people stick about CDO but I do like Kemboy. Obviously lacks the track form but his run at Christmas was brilliant and I think the right horse filled the places behind.

PhuckHugh2 · 08-02-2019 12:20pm

Leslie Purkiss wrote: »

I am giving people stick about CDO but I do like Kemboy. Obviously lacks the track form but his run at Christmas was brilliant and I think the right horse filled the places behind.

Kemboy unplaced at 2 goes at the track. If you are discounting CDO on Cheltenham form then surely Kemboy has no chance? His form there is worse.

Im not backing either by the way but just strange.

RivetingRoger · 08-02-2019 12:32pm

And in a move surprising no one.......

Given the obvious hit in recent days, PP are now NRNB on all races

PhuckHugh2 · 08-02-2019 12:37pm

NRNB is great and all but it has basically ruined antepost markets in the last 5 or so years. Half the allure about antepost and betting months in advance was trying to outsmart the layers. Now they just cut the **** off of everything and stick NRNB on it.

Charlie George · 08-02-2019 12:45pm

Leslie Purkiss wrote: »

Excellent analysis Pat. Can’t disagree with a word.

It’s very hard to look beyond PP. Everything stacks up with him given the runs of Monalee and EE at Christmas.

Shattered Love is a great mare but very very ground dependant.

I am giving people stick about CDO but I do like Kemboy. Obviously lacks the track form but his run at Christmas was brilliant and I think the right horse filled the places behind.

It's a funny race the Gc, but who did pp beat the over a chase that is a gc contender, no one. At 3/1 he's not for me.
But saying that it looks a weak gc and I think a punt on Bellshill and road to respect are the ones.

longshotvalue · 08-02-2019 12:53pm

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

NRNB is great and all but it has basically ruined antepost markets in the last 5 or so years. Half the allure about antepost and betting months in advance was trying to outsmart the layers. Now they just cut the **** off of everything and stick NRNB on it.

I like nrnb, but if you dont want it there is value on the befair exchange. I stuck a few quid on Mite Byte at 31 on it. He is going and Henderson has a record of getting them back. He is still a lightly raced 10yo. Last years form in the race is superb. It comes with risks obviously , but if he can be got back to form he''ll have a shot (especially on good ground). Im thinking there is too many of last years novices near the top of the market, and im not sure we know for sure yet the comparitive form.

PhuckHugh2 · 08-02-2019 1:06pm

aidankkk wrote: »

I like nrnb, but if you dont want it there is value on the befair exchange. I stuck a few quid on Mite Byte at 31 on it. He is going and Henderson has a record of getting them back. He is still a lightly raced 10yo. Last years form in the race is superb. It comes with risks obviously , but if he can be got back to form he''ll have a shot (especially on good ground). Im thinking there is too many of last years novices near the top of the market, and im not sure we know for sure yet the comparitive form.

I mean there is merits for both NRNB and antepost and yes i often use the exchange with antepost if i can get the price i want or else i stick up a price to get matched.
Around now is fine for NRNB. 1 month before. People crying out for it in December and January is unnecessary.

Leslie Purkiss · 08-02-2019 2:38pm

PhuckHugh2 wrote: »

Kemboy unplaced at 2 goes at the track. If you are discounting CDO on Cheltenham form then surely Kemboy has no chance? His form there is worse.

Im not backing either by the way but just strange.

Prone to nonsense Purkiss.

But if someone put a gun to my head (please don’t) and says to me your life on CDO or Kemboy around Prestbury Park on 15 March 2019 (ðŸ™) , ðŸ’¯% on Kem. His Christmas performance was special, CDOs was not.

Leslie Purkiss · 08-02-2019 2:42pm

Charlie George wrote: »

It's a funny race the Gc, but who did pp beat the over a chase that is a gc contender, no one. At 3/1 he's not for me.
But saying that it looks a weak gc and I think a punt on Bellshill and road to respect are the ones.

I am hoping PP drifts on the day as the UK punter sides with WP, Gordon, Nicky, PFN.

paddy no 11 · 08-02-2019 3:42pm

How the hell was Kemboys run special.......it was a terrible race, a crawl and david mullins took the chance to put his horse in front after 1/2 way, went it came to a race 2 out nothing was good enough to make up the few lengths he had in front

CDO won a true run king george

PhuckHugh2 · 08-02-2019 3:44pm

Leslie Purkiss wrote: »

Prone to nonsense Purkiss.

But if someone put a gun to my head (please don’t) and says to me your life on CDO or Kemboy around Prestbury Park on 15 March 2019 (ðŸ™) , &#55357;&#56495;% on Kem. His Christmas performance was special, CDOs was not.

Id take the opposite view if im honest. I thought the King George was 2 or 3 times the race the Lexus was.

Leslie Purkiss · 08-02-2019 4:57pm

paddy no 11 wrote: »

How the hell was Kemboys run special.......it was a terrible race, a crawl and david mullins took the chance to put his horse in front after 1/2 way, went it came to a race 2 out nothing was good enough to make up the few lengths he had in front

CDO won a true run king george

Ok, “abit” special

He thumped some very good animals. Simple as that.

Morgans · 08-02-2019 5:00pm

paddy no 11 wrote: »

How the hell was Kemboys run special.......it was a terrible race, a crawl and david mullins took the chance to put his horse in front after 1/2 way, went it came to a race 2 out nothing was good enough to make up the few lengths he had in front

CDO won a true run king george

Confirmation bias I think is the best term for it.

Gringo180 · 08-02-2019 5:49pm

Native River was off the bridle half way around in the KG thats how you knew they were going a good clip. He wasnt getting scrubbed along like that in last years Gold Cup.

Motivator · 08-02-2019 9:22pm

Kemboy has no chance in the Gold Cup. Plenty of jockeys and trainers afterwards said the Leopardstown race was a strange race and it was hard to know what to make of it. I don’t know if gets up the hill at Cheltenham. In a poor enough looking Gold Cup I still wouldn’t see him as a likely winner. Clan Des Obeaux was impressive in the King George and I’d rate him a lot higher. Nicholls thinks an awful lot of him and he knows what he needs in a Gold Cup contender.

Slattsy · 08-02-2019 9:50pm

Backed Lethal Steps for the Fred Winter this evening, before he runs on Sunday.

20s with Lads seemed fair to me and worth a few bob e/w. The juvenile form will be well tested on Sunday, so hopefully it works out.

Slattsy · 08-02-2019 9:51pm

Probably makes no odds as Cheltenham will be cancelled

mohican22 · 08-02-2019 10:05pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Probably makes no odds as Cheltenham will be cancelled

Certainly precariously flaming close hopefully they've got on top of it quickly if other yards are found to be infected then can't see it going ahead

mohican22 · 08-02-2019 10:09pm

Chelt ante-post portfolio - Angels Breath Supreme Le Richebourg Arkle and Laurina Champion Hurdle €25 each way treble. (Very speculative)
City Island 14/1 Ballymore Novices Hurdle €100 each way runs in Nass tomorrow hoping he wins in positive style in what appears a weak race

NaiveMelodies · 09-02-2019 2:22pm

mohican22 wrote: »

Chelt ante-post portfolio - Angels Breath Supreme Le Richebourg Arkle and Laurina Champion Hurdle €25 each way treble. (Very speculative)
City Island 14/1 Ballymore Novices Hurdle €100 each way runs in Nass tomorrow hoping he wins in positive style in what appears a weak race

Lotta love for City Island. Hope he does the business for ya

Johner · 09-02-2019 2:39pm

How good would Passageway have been.

RivetingRoger · 09-02-2019 2:40pm

Won't stay that price for long

Slattsy · 09-02-2019 3:48pm

Slattsy wrote: »

Backed Lethal Steps for the Fred Winter this evening, before he runs on Sunday.

20s with Lads seemed fair to me and worth a few bob e/w. The juvenile form will be well tested on Sunday, so hopefully it works out.

:rolleyes:

dicky dunne · 09-02-2019 7:38pm

what race does Champagne Classic run in? 4-miler or RSA?

madmoose · 09-02-2019 8:35pm

dicky dunne wrote: »

what race does Champagne Classic run in? 4-miler or RSA?

I would edge NH Chase as they have Delta Work for the RSA but at the same time Gigginstown did run both Don Poli and Wounded Warrior in the RSA with one winning and the other coming 3rd so it’s a tricky one.

realdanbreen · 09-02-2019 10:58pm

With British racing cancelled for the foreseeable are Irish horses going to be in with a greater chance for Cheltenham in terms of preperation ?

Slattsy · 09-02-2019 11:03pm

Not unless the horse was due to run, big ones i can think of of top of me head Native River and CDO. Certainly wont have helped.

Some of those in the Betfair hurdle. Definitely a negative.

Earendil · 10-02-2019 6:44pm

PP just gone NRNB on all races.

culline · 10-02-2019 10:48pm

If Coney Island lines ups in the Ryanair, he certainly won't be a 40/1 shot, which 365 have advertised NRNB. Seems solid ew value getting quarter odds also

Fanny Wank · 11-02-2019 11:21am

https://twitter.com/jumpsracingcouk/status/1094900625136070656?s=19

Cheltenham Antepost

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