Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Danno · 23-12-2018 11:37am

Gonzo wrote: »

wet night here in Dunshaughlin. Yesterday I went to Kilkenny City for a Christmas celebration and experienced some extremely heavy rain on the way there, the M9 had sheets of water falling on it.

Slightly off topic but it was my first time ever to kilkenny City and really liked it, an absolutely beautiful little city, can't believe it's taken me over 40 years to finally visit it!.

Lovely small city, but damn expensive. Kilkenny, Killarney and Galway are all lovely but horrifically overpriced. But thats tourist traps for ya.

As for the rain, the inland southeast/south midlands are getting their comeuppance for all the drought in May-August! Our rivers around here are full, some slight ponding in places. The Nore is a brisk river though and takes it out to sea fairly well.

Oscar Bravo · 23-12-2018 11:43am

A nice morning here in Castlebar, little or no wind and good vis with some nice blue skies to the north west. Id say its lovely up towards Sligo/Donegal

MidMan25 · 23-12-2018 12:11pm

Really despise this weather, grey mild and overcast in Cork. Unfortunately we've had quite a few Christmas periods like this since the epic 2010. At least it's good for getting out and about in, silver linings and all that!

sryanbruen · 23-12-2018 12:23pm

In case anyone would like to record this so they don't miss, there's a documentary on Ireland's 2018 weather chaos on Virgin Media One at 10 p.m. tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/deric_tv/status/1076197232804839424

Little snowy old me · 23-12-2018 12:39pm

By all accounts we are in for very bland weather. While it is welcome that we are not going to have disruptive weather over the Christmas period, you can't beat a good storm around the end of December or beginning of January. I just hope that this non stop wet benign murky weather doesn't continue through January and February. Even a cold frosty spell would be exciting compared to what we have had so far.

Billcarson · 23-12-2018 12:54pm

Despise this weather with a passion. It's been like this for much if the time since the start of Nov. Doesn't exactly put me in a festive mood. I'm hopeful though we will see a change and that Jan and feb will be a lot more interesting thanks to the ssw if luck is on our side.

Graces7 · 23-12-2018 1:10pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A nice morning here in Castlebar, little or no wind and good vis with some nice blue skies to the north west. Id say its lovely up towards Sligo/Donegal

Same out here. Ocean flat calm, mountains reflected.. perfect winter day and this old wan may be tempted to go for a walk...not many days that has been possible.. lovely Christmas gift for us. west mayo offshore

Captain Snow · 23-12-2018 1:11pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Despise this weather with a passion. It's been like this for much if the time since the start of Nov. Doesn't exactly put me in a festive mood. I'm hopeful though we will see a change and that Jan and feb will be a lot more interesting thanks to the ssw if luck is on our side.

:D:D:D

Rock Lesnar · 23-12-2018 1:43pm

Cloudy and a little misty here, feels a little chilly to but can see a brighter sky to the north,

Elmer Blooker · 23-12-2018 1:59pm

typhoony wrote: »

Anyone here old enough to remember the Bartlett winters of the 90's and early 00's then the charts will have a familiar look.

Yes, a familiar look as you say.
I can already see the pictures on the news of snowfalls in Athens and north Africa!

I found this chart after I posted earlier, I would expect this to be the pattern this winter.
ECM0-240.GIF?23-12

acequion · 23-12-2018 2:02pm

Agree completely with all those who despise this weather. Mild and wet weather is right up there with my all time pet hates. :mad: I have closets full of lovely jumpers [love my fashion :pac:] but not a hope of wearing one so all eye me dolefully when it comes to choosing my attire. Yet another boring blouse /shirt gets donned.:rolleyes: Not much to trouble me folks will say and I guess so.:D

But in all seriousness it has to be the most boring and annoying weather imaginable! And it goes on for months and months.

Fingers crossed for a change soon!

Donegal Storm · 23-12-2018 2:30pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

A nice morning here in Castlebar, little or no wind and good vis with some nice blue skies to the north west. Id say its lovely up towards Sligo/Donegal

Damp and misty here in Donegal so wouldn't go as far as lovely but definitely an improvement on the past while, flat calm and patches of blue in the sky

Graces7 · 23-12-2018 3:05pm

acequion wrote: »

Agree completely with all those who despise this weather. Mild and wet weather is right up there with my all time pet hates. :mad: I have closets full of lovely jumpers [love my fashion :pac:] but not a hope of wearing one so all eye me dolefully when it comes to choosing my attire. Yet another boring blouse /shirt gets donned.:rolleyes: Not much to trouble me folks will say and I guess so.:D

But in all seriousness it has to be the most boring and annoying weather imaginable! And it goes on for months and months.

Fingers crossed for a change soon!

oh DEAR :eek:

Delighted here to hang my rain cape up and leave the heavy clothing where it hangs.. May this last and last and last...:)

Captain Snow · 23-12-2018 3:18pm

The SSW has just begun over Siberia. It will then start to push over the north pole into Greenland.

I would start to expect the Models to respond in FI.

Here is the 8th of January from 06zz run this morning.

The Minus 10 isotherm just of the East English coast.

The change in the models over the next week to 10 days will be like a light switch IMO.

Its going to get Emotional......:p:p

derekon · 23-12-2018 3:35pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

The SSW has just begun over Siberia. It will then start to push over the north pole into Greenland.

I would start to expect the Models to respond in FI.

Here is the 8th of January from 06zz run this morning.

The Minus 10 isotherm just of the East English coast.

The change in the models over the next week to 10 days will be like a light switch IMO.

Its going to get Emotional......:p:p

I concur. Too much pessimism on this site re snow prospects. The coming week will be largely dry and grey. January? Well that might be a different story altogether.....patience young Jedis!

D

Mortelaro · 23-12-2018 4:08pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

The SSW has just begun over Siberia. It will then start to push over the north pole into Greenland.

I would start to expect the Models to respond in FI.

Here is the 8th of January from 06zz run this morning.

The Minus 10 isotherm just of the East English coast.

The change in the models over the next week to 10 days will be like a light switch IMO.

Its going to get Emotional......:p:p

Don't be looking that far in FI for Strat effects
Concentrate on day 5 to 9
Beyond that is just nonsense as always as it's determined by bigger and bigger errors the further away from day zero you go
Even at day 5 to 9 you're not looking for a forecast,you're looking for ingredients
Once you have those,trop chaos will do the rest if she cooks the cold cake at all,I'd say She will but we just DON'T know

Oh and ignore most netweather posters,a lot of rubbish there

JCX BXC · 23-12-2018 4:16pm

That would lead to some interestingly cold weather over eastern Europe.

Donegal Storm · 23-12-2018 5:49pm

Spectacular golden moonrise out there at the moment, my phone camera is rubbish in the dark so can't get a decent pic but one of the nicest I've seen

JCX BXC · 23-12-2018 7:33pm

8.4mm today from this relentless drizzle/rain.

Very very annoying.

sryanbruen · 23-12-2018 8:59pm

M.T. mentioned the following over on Netweather:

One example of how a high to the south of the UK can rebuild north to set up a cold spell would be Jan 1-7, 1881, followed by several weeks of epic cold and snow. (check maps on wetterzentrale archives, select 20th century NOAA and input dates). The high eventually got absorbed into a Greenland high and the flow became increasingly northeast over the period. In this low-energy environment, with a southerly flow into Greenland, this seems like a possible outcome and it might be a few days before models catch on to it.

Funny how I mentioned January 1881 only yesterday when comparing the latest CFSv2 for January 2019.

https://twitter.com/SnowbieWx/status/1076533185905864704

January 1881 was a very snowy and severely cold month for those who wonder. It recorded Ireland's all-time lowest temperature of -19.1c at Markree Castle. Here's a chart from the month.

This is obviously just for fun. Let's get the SSW done and over with before looking ahead to prospects on the conditions during mid-January which is the *minimum* likely time for possible tropospheric impacts. Wait and see. We do not even know for sure if the impacts will propagate into the troposphere. Until then, something just doesn't sit right with me in this being the "big one" for cold.... I don't know why I feel that.

MidMan25 · 23-12-2018 9:27pm

Seems to me that MT's prediction for December is completely off.

M.T. Cranium · 23-12-2018 10:03pm

I thought this transition would be underway around now, with a high energy peak for 21-22 Dec. What's actually happening is less energetic but the trend is in a similar direction. Anything I've actually posted about cold features January, for example you can check my forecast in the "coldest minimum" thread (a lot of posters agreed with the timing on that, 5-15 Jan gets about half the votes in total).

Given that we are going into a prolonged period where high pressure is going to be dominant, I would take the mild forecasts with the caveat that some places, especially inland southeast, could fail to respond to weak mixing and could stay rather cold some of the days. We shall see on that one, I do expect the west to get quite mild until this pattern breaks down totally.

Sorry not to give a mention, sryanbruen, about 1881, it was something I noticed independently as I hadn't been in this thread for a while.

It does give one hope that a wintry outcome is possible even without big highs showing up from northern Russia into Scandinavia because that was never part of the scenario in 1881 and the outcome was perfect in terms of snow and cold (southern England buried under huge snowfalls from the Channel for example).

sdanseo · 23-12-2018 10:58pm

MidMan25 wrote: »

Seems to me that MT's prediction for December is completely off.

For a forecast made more than two months ago, and in the context of the signalled very high likelihood of a SSW event inducing at least some sort of a cold spell beginning as soon as the first week of the new year.. it's not that far off the mark at all.

Yet :P

MTC wrote:

It is looking quite cold compared to normal for Britain and Ireland, in particular later December and parts of January. However, this appears to be dependent on a strong jet stream either shifting far enough south or relaxing for periods of 1-2 weeks, and the intervals between the cold spells could be quite stormy at times when the jet stream is roaring at full capacity. The research index values in particular go far colder than I have seen them for the past several winters, indicating many analogue cases that were very cold winters. Looking through the analogues, I find that periods around late December into early January, and mid to late January, were favoured for the coldest weather.

ninebeanrows · 23-12-2018 11:03pm

To the lay person the charts are dreadful at the moment for anyone looking for significant cold.

Also I note the SSW doesn’t really follow through and the warming doesn’t appear in a position that would aid a cold outbreak in Ireland.

Let’s see how things play but I’m not hopeful

Ps.
Bah humbug

Meteorite58 · 24-12-2018 12:26am

Big temperature range between North and South of the country tonight.

8.6C here near Tralee and raining.

Graces7 · 24-12-2018 5:08am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

To the lay person the charts are dreadful at the moment for anyone looking for significant cold.

Also I note the SSW doesn’t really follow through and the warming doesn’t appear in a position that would aid a cold outbreak in Ireland.

Let’s see how things play but I’m not hopeful

Ps.
Bah humbug

Need to be careful what you wish for, please. I have family on an island near Vancouver, where as MT mentioned they had a fierce storm a few days ago. Still no power /phones and some islanders are still trapped in their houses by fallen trees.

Just had a brief email.

And |i will not get to wish loved ones happy Christmas ....

So no more grousing please. And I as a lame old wan am deeply thankful for this calm spell.....I can walk the lanes and the beach, even sit outside a wee while and enjoy the peace.... rare gifts at Christmas!

Elmer Blooker · 24-12-2018 12:22pm

You can only laugh at this! - even the Sahara can manage colder weather than us.

pad199207 · 24-12-2018 12:36pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

You can only laugh at this! - even the Sahara can manage colder weather than us.

The only consolation from that is that Ireland isn’t the only country sitting under that mildish air.

Harry Palmr · 24-12-2018 1:02pm

You'd not bother to open the curtains right now

irishrover99 · 24-12-2018 1:21pm

Nice mild and calm day in Dublin.
Give me this all Winter and ill be happy.

Captain Snow · 24-12-2018 2:02pm

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

You can only laugh at this! - even the Sahara can manage colder weather than us.

:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

ARGHHHHHH!

LOL

Carlingford Locked · 24-12-2018 2:32pm

Why do you all want it to get colder? I hate winter, today is bearable though as I wasn't getting pelted by wind and rain on my cycle in and out of work. I hope it stays like this for a while. I've barely needed the heat so far this winter (if it's even started yet), saves you a fortune.

sryanbruen · 24-12-2018 2:40pm

Carlingford Locked wrote: »

Why do you all want it to get colder? I hate winter, today is bearable though as I wasn't getting pelted by wind and rain on my cycle in and out of work. I hope it stays like this for a while. I've barely needed the heat so far this winter (if it's even started yet), saves you a fortune.

Mild in Winter usually means cloudy conditions which I dislike (though mild and cloudy is better than cold and cloudy). Mild in Winter is normally associated with wind and rain. Love those cold, frosty and sunny days. Cold is often better for the photography too as a result of that. Like seasons being seasonable.

I'm not complaining about the upcoming spell even if it will be cloudy the vast majority of the time because it's superior to the rubbish we have had for many weeks now. Also gives me more time to do things instead of focusing on the current weather.

I feel like this question has been asked to death at this rate.

Meteorite58 · 24-12-2018 2:44pm

Different cloud levels here in Tralee with some milky blue sky also giving a fair amount of light, much better than yesterdays washout, mild at 11.7C

NASA pic taken a bit earlier.

OQ1nC3n.jpg?1

Carlingford Locked · 24-12-2018 2:48pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

cloudy conditions which I dislike

You're in the wrong country for that, so am I. It may be my selective memory, but I have so many memories of my school days in the 80s and 90s where the grass would be hard from frost and I could see the Dublin mountains frozen in the mornings. I've probably just forgotten that it was windy and rainy most of the time.

Tigerandahalf · 24-12-2018 2:49pm

It has been a really dreary autumn/winter in the west. Some days it has been raining/drizzling but it doesn't show up on the radar. Today the lights are on the whole time. It is so dark.

We could really do with some blue skies.

Gonzo · 24-12-2018 2:50pm

eastern, central and south-eastern Europe looks like it's going into the freezer after New Year's Day. The Atlantic looks like it's going to charge up again for us with possibly a very unsettled and windy first week of January.

sryanbruen · 24-12-2018 2:51pm

Carlingford Locked wrote: »

You're in the wrong country for that, so am I. It may be my selective memory, but I have so many memories of my school days in the 80s and 90s where the grass would be hard from frost and I could see the Dublin mountains frozen in the mornings. I've probably just forgotten that it was windy and rainy most of the time.

I also like the random luck into getting sunny/blue skies, makes me appreciate those days more.

Mortelaro · 24-12-2018 2:58pm

Have we learned nothing from the era of knowing about Strat warming?
Expect the unexpected and IGNORE models beyond 7 to 9 days
In fact in the run up to new year,IGNORE anything past 5 days

derekon · 24-12-2018 3:04pm

Gonzo wrote: »

eastern, central and south-eastern Europe looks like it's going into the freezer after New Year's Day. The Atlantic looks like it's going to charge up again for us with possibly a very unsettled and windy first week of January.

Hi Gonzo, the new year is 8 days away. I'd stick to the reliable (4-5 days) , we have a settled week ahead with high pressure firmly in charge.........the models are currently struggling. I'm far from convinced we will have a wet, mild and windy first week of January!

Happy Xmas everyone!

D

Gonzo · 24-12-2018 3:10pm

Mortelaro wrote: »

Have we learned nothing from the era of knowing about Strat warming?
Expect the unexpected and IGNORE models beyond 7 to 9 days
In fact in the run up to new year,IGNORE anything past 5 days

The Atlantic coming back is in FI with a week to go, even if it works out, it looks like it's going to be certainly cooler than it is this week, perhaps wintry showers at times mixed in with it.

I'm not expecting the benefits of the Strat warming to hit us till week 3 or 4 in January, which would be perfect timing for a proper easterly blast.

derekon · 24-12-2018 3:37pm

Gonzo wrote: »

The Atlantic coming back is in FI with a week to go, even if it works out, it looks like it's going to be certainly cooler than it is this week, perhaps wintry showers at times mixed in with it.

I'm not expecting the benefits of the Strat warming to hit us till week 3 or 4 in January, which would be perfect timing for a proper easterly blast.

I'm with you there Gonzo, I think the period 15th-25th January is the key time for cold/snow with the effects of the strat warming being felt around then

D

nacho libre · 24-12-2018 8:12pm

Gonzo wrote: »

eastern, central and south-eastern Europe looks like it's going into the freezer after New Year's Day. The Atlantic looks like it's going to charge up again for us with possibly a very unsettled and windy first week of January.

Assuming we initially get a displacement, then a proper split, you would expect that to happen before the effects of the warming propagate down to the Troposphere. So the models may play around with various wild solutions, before hopefully eye candy charts start showing up in fi from around the 4th of January onwards.

Birdnuts · 24-12-2018 8:56pm

Carlingford Locked wrote: »

Why do you all want it to get colder? I hate winter, today is bearable though as I wasn't getting pelted by wind and rain on my cycle in and out of work. I hope it stays like this for a while. I've barely needed the heat so far this winter (if it's even started yet), saves you a fortune.

Cos if we don't get it bad in winter, it usually arrives in summer - I know which scenario I prefer!!

acequion · 25-12-2018 12:10am

Not wanting to fight with people at this time of year BUT am in front of the family xmas tree,sitting a mile back fro the tiny fire, wearing a t.shirt and sweating. And wondering how the hell anyone thinks this is great

Sorry, but most likely we'll have the same temps in June! I hate it. Give me a proper winter and a proper summer any day.

droidman123 · 25-12-2018 12:26am

MidMan25 wrote: »

Seems to me that MT's prediction for December is completely off.

Stick around dude,theres people on here that think they can forecast irelands weather 3 months in advance,i kid you not

Graces7 · 25-12-2018 4:36am

Happy Christmas all,

Blessedly calm and mild.... enjoyed a long walk with the quiet ocean on both sides yesterday and hoping to do the same today...
a real pleasure
west mayo offshore

P.lane78 · 25-12-2018 8:32am

Happy Christmas Graces7 and everyone in the weather forum ...it's a foggy Misty morning in cork city ...lucky Rudolph was around last night

JCX BXC · 25-12-2018 8:36am

Good morning and happy Christmas to everyone, it's an overcast but mild morning here in West Clare, good weather for a nice hungover head like mine.

Tigerandahalf · 25-12-2018 10:12am

Happy xmas and a thank you to those who put up the forecasts and the various pictures etc.

It would be lovely to get a couple of good weeks weather between now and the kids going back. It makes getting outdoors so much easier.

Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

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