Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

Darwin

Yes, absolutely fantastic effort putting all that together Syranbuen.

jirafa

Need a nice quite period of weather,once Diana has swung her hook, to digest that forecast with the scrutiny it deserves, sryanbruen. So much detail and thought gone into it,it deserves one full attention and respect .

gozunda

El Niño weather to develop in next three months - WMO

https://f7td5.app.goo.gl/LNEyC

Supercell

Fair play Sryanbruen, that took a lot of work to put together and was a very interesting read, thank you!

bazlers

Fantastic effort puts me to shame.
Let's hope you are under playing how cold it will get! Excellent read. 5 stars.

Gonzo

Excellent winter report with so much detail and research. This report along with several other videos released over the past 24 hours are certainly pointing towards a fairly average December.

It appears that we are going to have a mostly Atlantic driven December with temperatures and rainfall at least average or higher than average for the most part. Much of Europe would be included with this too.

It looks like our first attempt of some winter snow may not happen till at least mid January. Hopefully the possible colder end to January and February will work out. I'm fine with that, I am not a huge fan of heavy snow leading to Christmas week. 2010 was fascinating but it did make Christmas week too awkward and even had to abandon the traditional Christmas Eve drinks.

However I don't think we will be seeing a repeat of the wonders of last winter, certainly not on the same scale. I will be more than happy with 3-4 days of decent snow cover at some point this winter, however it would be good for it to occur a bit earlier than last year's Beast From The East/Storm Emma.

Artane2002

Brilliant work Sryan, keep up the hard work !

Billcarson

Good luck with your forecast sryanbruen. When it comes to getting a good cold winter I've always felt the early 2020s are the one to watch. Probably not this one. So I would not be surprised if your not to far off the mark.

derekon

Thanks for all the effort you put in sryanbruen. Naturally I'm hoping that MT's forecast proves to be correct (notably colder than usual with some stormy periods, I think he says mid December is when the colder will first start to materialise).......that said , the weather will do what the weather will do!!

D

bazlers

derekon wrote: »

Thanks for all the effort you put in sryanbruen. Naturally I'm hoping that MT's forecast proves to be correct (notably colder than usual with some stormy periods, I think he says mid December is when the colder will first start to materialise).......that said , the weather will do what the weather will do!!

D

Indeed. In fairness MTC put that preliminary LRF up in October, So I would imagine he will tweak it a bit. Hopefully it won't be a downgrade and with a bit of luck the ultimate upgrade! Seems models are pushing the colder patterns back. Let's hope they don't get pushed into spring ; -)

bazlers

Surely the jet stream can't sustain this strength!
I would like to think from the second week of December on it will have died somewhat. Maybe that's just wishful thinking...

esposito

bazlers wrote: »

Surely the jet stream can't sustain this strength!
I would like to think from the second week of December on it will have died somewhat. Maybe that's just wishful thinking...

Don’t under estimate it.

Tbh I’m glad these storms are happening now rather than the week before Christmas. Let’s hope we have more settled conditions around then.

sryanbruen

bazlers wrote: »

Surely the jet stream can't sustain this strength!
I would like to think from the second week of December on it will have died somewhat. Maybe that's just wishful thinking...

The second half of December into early January is when the zonal winds in the stratosphere are at their strongest on average and at the same time, the stratosphere is at its coldest.

Gonzo

bazlers wrote: »

Surely the jet stream can't sustain this strength!
I would like to think from the second week of December on it will have died somewhat. Maybe that's just wishful thinking...

it won't be this stormy all the time between now and Christmas but it does appear that we could be locked into an Atlantic pattern over the next 4 to 6 weeks. I am hoping that a more seasonal trend will appear in the next few weeks leading to eventual cold weather in mid January and February.

Franz Von Peppercorn

esposito wrote: »

Don’t under estimate it.

Tbh I’m glad these storms are happening now rather than the week before Christmas. Let’s hope we have more settled conditions around then.

Did we work out that the jet stream tends to historically run out of steam in early December.

RobertKK

I play an online game with a group of people, we chat a lot...so we are friends at this stage. Snowing all day today on the Black Sea coast of Romania, and another had snow for most of yesterday in Indiana, the friend in Finland said they are getting no snow, talked about tourists complaining about no snow in Lapland

Gonzo

RobertKK wrote: »

I play an online game with a group of people, we chat a lot...so we are friends at this stage. Snowing all day today on the Black Sea coast of Romania, and another had snow for most of yesterday in Indiana, the friend in Finland said they are getting no snow, talked about tourists complaining about no snow in Lapland

the far east and south-east of Europe, the Black Sea area in particular and maybe even parts of Greece could see snow from time to time over the next few weeks.

SeaBreezes

Thank you for the forecast sryanbruen. A lot of effort put into gathering it together. Appreciate the work, thank you! M. T. Cranium, thank you too. I love the forecasts and appreciate the sharing of your work/experience.

ZX7R

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

Did we work out that the jet stream tends to historically run out of steam in early December.

My worries is that it's been asleep most of the year,it after waking up now full of energy going to be hard to put it back asleep

Tabnabs

RobertKK wrote: »

I play an online game with a group of people, we chat a lot...so we are friends at this stage. Snowing all day today on the Black Sea coast of Romania, and another had snow for most of yesterday in Indiana, the friend in Finland said they are getting no snow, talked about tourists complaining about no snow in Lapland

We can relax, snow has finally arrived in lapland

https://twitter.com/Nordic_News/status/1066289303960109057

Artane2002

Netweather going for a backloaded winter.

December: Mild and wet start and finish. Colder and drier in the middle.
January: Settling down and getting colder.
February: Cold and blocked.

Sycamore Tree

Artane2002 wrote: »

Netweather going for a backloaded winter.

December: Mild and wet start and finish. Colder and drier in the middle.
January: Settling down and getting colder.
February: Cold and blocked.

But I want it now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gonzo

the start of winter looks very wet indeed with an incredibly active Atlantic really taking charge over the next 2 weeks. Precipitation charts are showing between 75 and 105mm of rain to fall across most of the country within the next 10 days. Mountainous areas in the west could see more, possibly 120mm of rain over the next 10 days.

sryanbruen

Some changes gradually (very slowly) taking place in the North Atlantic SST profile with warmer anomalies appearing near Greenland and colder anomalies appearing near the US. This bodes better for a negative NAO but still is not the classic North Atlantic tripole that would give way to anomalous negative NAO conditions i.e. intense blocking over Greenland.

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1068610482213396481

Saying the above, looks like we are going back into a period of very positive NAO through early December which will be a reflection of an enhancement in the westerlies. Need to see more dramatic changes of the SST profile to increase the risk of negative NAO but it's a start.

RobertKK

It was mentioned earlier on the weather on TV, there could be hill snow on Tuesday.

bazlers

Some seriously juicey models starting to raise their pretty heads. I like!

Graces7

RobertKK wrote: »

It was mentioned earlier on the weather on TV, there could be hill snow on Tuesday.

wonderful

Captain Snow

RobertKK wrote: »

It was mentioned earlier on the weather on TV, there could be hill snow on Tuesday.

This is how close we are to Wet Snow Fall ATM. If the Low was further south we would be in a good chance for wintery showers. Even better if the Jet was further south. Nice charts all the same.:)

Graces7

such a gentle quiet entrance winter is making,, clear and calm.. long may it continue so, west mayo offshore

bizarre cloud formations on the mountains, draping like snow

Beechwoodspark

Front of the UK daily star today predicts worse snow fall for 70 years over Christmas.