Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

lawred2 · 01-12-2018 12:02AM

sink wrote: »

Great video by Stephen Fry. Pitty it wasn't released 2 1/2 years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYonSZ8s3_o

Asif the Brexiteering sort would have paid a blind bit of notice to what Stephen Fry had to say

Capt'n Midnight · 01-12-2018 12:06AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove now backing the Norway option:

That backstabbing snake ?

Norway means Four Freedoms, Hard Border, continued payments to EU, no say in EU rules. Red lines to beat the band

But it gives back control of fishing. But since local Scottish fishermen only have 1% of the quota it won't do much for them. In NI one boat will still have 50% of the quota. And besides most of fish caught in UK waters are exported. And most of the fish they eat is imported.

Infini · 01-12-2018 12:13AM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Eh, no, nobody believes that, not even him.

No Deal Brexit is bad for the EU, so of course they will do what it takes to avoid it.

No deal is bad for everyone but the question in this regard is if the British Government is truly incompetent enough to actually crashout wether by choice or accident.

The question really being asked is are they really going to go "full retard" and cause such a self defeating mess or will the HoC actually come to its senses and realise remaing is the only option and bring an end to this farce.

FrancieBrady · 01-12-2018 12:17AM

Infini wrote: »

No deal is bad for everyone but the question in this regard is if the British Government is truly incompetent enough to actually crashout wether by choice or accident.

The question really being asked is are they really going to go "full retard" and cause such a self defeating mess or will the HoC actually come to its senses and realise remaing is the only option and bring an end to this farce.

Can we stop the 'by accident' nonsense. They know the consequences of what they are doing. There is no 'accident' about it.

Capt'n Midnight · 01-12-2018 12:37AM

tuxy wrote: »

So things have changed since the days of the opium wars?

Don't get me started.

Back then China was susceptible to gunboat diplomacy.

Today they have aircraft carriers with aircraft, and ballistic anti-carrier missiles. You can argue about defences against sea skimming missiles, but the Chinese plan is to go over the top and nuke you from orbit.

India has carriers too. And Pakistan has nukes. And despite all the conventional weapons the US and UK are still stuck in Afghanistan and Iraq. (US companies are cleaning up , are the UK ?)

The UK is no longer the workshop of the world, that mantle passed back to China.
The UK has niche positions in high tech, but Dyson & Co. mean that like the toy I bought in Aldi (German) it's trending to "Designed in the UK"

But one of the early polls suggested that a third of OAP's would be quite OK with a family member loosing their job over Brexit. I can't understand that level of "I'm alright Jack" with their triple lock pensions. It's a different culture over there.

Rain Ascending · 01-12-2018 12:58AM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SteveBarclay/status/1068533485470736384

This MP some how thinks the UK are going to get a better deal than the SM and the CU while being outside the EU.

And he's not just any old backbencher MP. He's a minister.

And not just any old minister. He's the new Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union! Yes, Raab's and Davis' successor...

You couldn't make it up.

Thargor · 01-12-2018 12:58AM

Really starting to get entertaining now:

https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1068080900037099522

LeinsterDub · 01-12-2018 01:23AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gove now backing the Norway option:

The trouble with the Norway option at least according to James O'Brien is two fold firstly the entire purpose of the EFTA is to allow counties move toward EU membership not away from it and also that each country has a veto over decisions and would the likes of Norway be happy to give the UK a veto given their past behavior in the EU and the fact that they would only be using the EFTA as the 'any port in a storm option'

Calina · 01-12-2018 08:07AM

The problem, it seems to me is that the UK have yet to work out that wanting stuff in no way guarantees they will get it.

Additionally, the duty of avoiding a crash out Brexit falls on UK shoulders, not EU.

Iderown · 01-12-2018 08:52AM

Calina wrote: »

The problem, it seems to me is that the UK have yet to work out that wanting stuff in no way guarantees they will get it.

Additionally, the duty of avoiding a crash out Brexit falls on UK shoulders, not EU.

Quite so, Calina.

Something from UK government that is worth a quick look is:

How to prepare if the UK leaves the EU with no deal
Guidance on how to prepare for Brexit if there's no deal.

Most of the guidance notes were uploaded in mid-September to mid-October.
The most recent is one on 28 November. They are very general in nature.

One that interests me concerns the North-South electricity grid interconnector:
Guidance - Trading electricity if there’s no Brexit deal - Published 12 October 2018

I have personal bad memories of the power cuts here in NI during the politically motivated action here in 1974.

Extract from the "Guidance" above:

Government or the Northern Ireland Utility Regulator will act to seek to ensure adequate generation capacity is in place, as far as possible through a competitive procurement process involving existing generation and new generation investment alongside demand side measures.

"demand side measures" could well imply power cuts for NI.

The time deadline of April 2019 is much too close for us to expect sensible action on this matter. I bet that similar holds for other "Guidances"

RobMc59 · 01-12-2018 10:47AM

Calina wrote: »

The problem, it seems to me is that the UK have yet to work out that wanting stuff in no way guarantees they will get it.

Additionally, the duty of avoiding a crash out Brexit falls on UK shoulders, not EU.

I think the penny is finally beginning to drop that you can't always get what you want-the only problem is I believe it's also dawning on people that remaining is a better option and the UK isn't as important in the world as it thinks-so a no to the TM deal will hopefully mean remaining as the whole country(minus the torys and fat cats)see the folly of a no deal brexit imo.

ancapailldorcha · 01-12-2018 10:49AM

lawred2 wrote: »

Asif the Brexiteering sort would have paid a blind bit of notice to what Stephen Fry had to say

The hardcore lot? Most definitely not. However, moderates who genuinely don't know how to vote would likely find Fry to be a trustworthy and informed source. I know several people who were unsure and often, simply chose not to vote at all.

LeinsterDub · 01-12-2018 11:29AM

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsTech/status/1068636806017662977

I'm re-watching the West Wing and they refer to dumping the bad news stories that aren't a big deal as dumping the garbage. This is what happening here. Remember when losing access to the Galileo project either wouldn't happen or would be such a outrage the it would be an international incident. Well now they are adopting the bender (of Futurama fame) attitude we'll build our own satellites and rockets with black jack and hookers

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 11:46AM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I think the penny is finally beginning to drop that you can't always get what you want-the only problem is I believe it's also dawning on people that remaining is a better option and the UK isn't as important in the world as it thinks-so a no to the TM deal will hopefully mean remaining as the whole country(minus the torys and fat cats)see the folly of a no deal brexit imo.

I'm not sure that the UK remaining is in the EU's best interests at this stage. A large rump of MPs and voters have hardened their Brexiteer positions and have become emboldened. They will continue to pick away the UK's membership and frustrate progress for the EU as a whole. An ordered untying would be better for long term cohesion within the EU.

prawnsambo · 01-12-2018 11:57AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm not sure that the UK remaining is in the EU's best interests at this stage. A large rump of MPs and voters have hardened their Brexiteer positions and have become emboldened. They will continue to pick away the UK's membership and frustrate progress for the EU as a whole. An ordered untying would be better for long term cohesion within the EU.

The real danger for the UK leaving with a hard brexit or even a soft one transitioning to a full exit is the prospect of what the vultures currently circling would do with the country. There are clear indications that the NHS would be up for sale, that standards wouldn't as much slip as be burned and that the country would become a tax haven/money laundering pit. There are upsides, but not ones that the vast majority of the population would like.

Water John · 01-12-2018 11:57AM

Not sure if Brexiteer MPs are emboldened. They seem to be scattering. Mogg and Baker can't get 48 votes, Fox, Hunt and Gove running off in different directions, either supporting TM or looking at Norway style Deals.
There may be plenty angry people but no leaders anymore.

The large Tory group that won't support TM's Deal are either Remainers or soft Brexit.

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 12:03PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

The real danger for the UK leaving with a hard brexit or even a soft one transitioning to a full exit is the prospect of what the vultures currently circling would do with the country. There are clear indications that the NHS would be up for sale, that standards wouldn't as much slip as be burned and that the country would become a tax haven/money laundering pit. There are upsides, but not ones that the vast majority of the population would like.

That's their problem. An orderly, long transition would give Ireland time to find new markets and to steal some of the UK's service industry. It would be great if the UK stayed and became committed to the cause but I can't see that happening. If they stay, they will continue to cause trouble.

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 12:09PM

Water John wrote: »

Not sure if Brexiteer MPs are emboldened. They seem to be scattering. Mogg and Baker can't get 48 votes, Fox, Hunt and Gove running off in different directions, either supporting TM or looking at Norway style Deals.
There may be plenty angry people but no leaders anymore.

The large Tory group that won't support TM's Deal are either Remainers or soft Brexit.

Even today, 30% of voters would support leaving with no deal, never mind those who want to leave with a deal. That sentiment isn't going to go away.

Calina · 01-12-2018 12:10PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

That's their problem. An orderly, long transition would give Ireland time to find new markets and to steal some of the UK's service industry. It would be great if the UK stayed and became committed to the cause but I can't see that happening. If they stay, they will continue to cause trouble.

I tend to agree here. Even in the remain lobby there is still an attitude of Britain's desires being right/best. They remain apart, they will fix the EU problems but they are still other. Tye idea of shared responsibility/mutual support has not got through. It is still Britain and the EU not the EU. That the EU is not perfect but Britain will fix it.

In many respects this is not any more helpful than the Brexit position. It seems to me a period of reflection within the UK is still called for.

Water John · 01-12-2018 12:17PM

I have no doubt that there is 30% supporting a Crash out Brexit if necessary fro their POV. Then they can support UKIP candidates if they wish.
There are various anti EU parties, both right and left across the EU.

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 12:18PM

Calina wrote: »

I tend to agree here. Even in the remain lobby there is still an attitude of Britain's desires being right/best. They remain apart, they will fix the EU problems but they are still other. Tye idea of shared responsibility/mutual support has not got through. It is still Britain and the EU not the EU. That the EU is not perfect but Britain will fix it.

In many respects this is not any more helpful than the Brexit position. It seems to me a period of reflection within the UK is still called for.

I think the only hope would be a proper debate based on reality and centered around a second referendum. Unfortunately, there are two chances of that happening and Slim just left town.

Water John · 01-12-2018 12:28PM

TM might swivel to a 2nd Ref after losing her HoC vote. She'd use a public vote for her Deal to persuade the MPs to vote for it.

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 12:34PM

Water John wrote: »

TM might swivel to a 2nd Ref after losing her HoC vote. She'd use a public vote for her Deal to persuade the MPs to vote for it.

I think if there was to be a second referendum then Remain would win. However, that won't end division nor stop the UK causing trouble in the future. The question the other 27 need to ask themselves is it now time to cast them adrift.

Water John · 01-12-2018 12:38PM

If there are indications of UK taking a step closer to the EU than TM's Deal, an Ext of Art 50 is available.

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 12:49PM

Water John wrote: »

If there are indications of UK taking a step closer to the EU than TM's Deal, an Ext of Art 50 is available.

The problem with that is there are elections coming up next year so the EU would probably offer a few months extension at best. Plus all 27 countries would have to agree.

Water John · 01-12-2018 12:57PM

A few months is all that is needed to hold a Ref or rework the negotiations with UK staying in the CU. All the options come into play after Dec 11th.

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 01:01PM

Water John wrote: »

A few months is all that is needed to hold a Ref or rework the negotiations with UK staying in the CU. All the options come into play after Dec 11th.

Dunno. The elections are end of May. There is no way that the EU will want Brexit discussions and Brexiteers muddying the waters. If I were Tusk and Juncker, I would not agree to any extension.

RobMc59 · 01-12-2018 01:02PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think if there was to be a second referendum then Remain would win. However, that won't end division nor stop the UK causing trouble in the future. The question the other 27 need to ask themselves is it now time to cast them adrift.

I hope your wrong regarding the UK causing trouble if they remain-the old saying "you don't realise what you've got till its gone"would hopefully be the UK attitude-also,the EU has behaved impeccably in all this despite having to deal with a UK unwilling or unable to face facts that the days of old have gone-a good side effect of Brexit(whichever way it goes)will be to show other restless countries that the grass isn't always greener.

Professor Moriarty · 01-12-2018 01:06PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

I hope your wrong regarding the UK causing trouble if they remain-the old saying "you don't realise what you've got till its gone"would hopefully be the UK attitude-also,the EU has behaved impeccably in all this despite having to deal with a UK unwilling or unable to face facts that the days of old have gone-a good side effect of Brexit(whichever way it goes)will be to show other restless countries that the grass isn't always greener.

Exactly. The EU cannot allow the UK to be better off outside the EU. Nothing personal, the UK must be an example pour encourager les autres. It's a crucial existential matter for the EU project.

Infini · 01-12-2018 01:08PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think if there was to be a second referendum then Remain would win. However, that won't end division nor stop the UK causing trouble in the future. The question the other 27 need to ask themselves is it now time to cast them adrift.

In fairness its not worth throwing the whole country under the bus because of the pig ignorant stupidity of a certain amount of people. However it does show that the UK if they manage to dodge this bullet NEEDS heavy reform of its political structures.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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