Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 06:21PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Do you have a link? What kind of brexit?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

LuckyLloyd · 28-11-2018 06:23PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really cannot see it happening. Quite apart from the lack of MP's calling for it, I think it sets a dangerous precedent going forward.

Each government gets it power from the vote of the people, they are pretty much allowed to get away with anything during the time as people voted for them. This would basically be admitting that the HoC cannot govern the country.

What is the knock on effect of that?

I mean this only in the context of the UK, normal democracies could see the value. Its akin to the POTUS, once voted in it is almost impossible to remove them due to going against the vote of the people.

The voters in the UK decided to leave, the HoC now need to inact that wish.

That's rubbish imo. The 2016 referendum was:

High level and non specific on a topic that has proven enormously complex and detailed
Involved a major Leave organisation being in breach of rules
Featurerd major disinformation and was not monitored by an appropriately empowered referendum commission

We now have an actual negotiated position available and that offers a completely rational basis on which to go back to the people. Two and a half years later, a huge amount of the hearsay and disinformation has actually been narrowed down and disproven with a quantifiable deal on the table and a more realistic outline of the potential process / timetable it implies mapped out ahead.

And in any case, a question of leaving the EU is honestly more fundamental than the vast majority of the slate of decisions faced by a HoC during a typical government. Only the question of going to war is more fundamental, and that isn't necessarily run by parliament in every scenario.

I'm surprised you hold this position based on your contributions in this thread to date, to be honest.

First Up · 28-11-2018 06:23PM

Podge_irl wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

For intra- Schengen flights there are no passport checks. It doesn't matter where the passengers are from.

For flights arriving from outside Schengen there are passport checks for everyone. Most airports have EU and non-EU queues but everyone gets checked.

For flights from Ireland and the UK into Schengen, everyone gets checked. There may be EU and non-EU lines but these are the only intra-EU flights for which passport checks apply.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Since the checks that Schengen countries carry out on non-Schengen EU/EEA citizens are quite different from the checks that they carry out on third-country citizens, many (most?) international airports have separate queuing/processing for the two groups. So choose the right airport, and this shouldn't be too big a problem.

Yes. None of which contradicts what I said above or what was said by Peregrinus. There is separate queuing for EU passengers which mitigates (though obviously does not eliminate) the issue with long haul flights coming in at the same time as you.

There is no queueing for any passengers on flights within the Schengen area because there is nothing to queue for.

Passengers from Ireland and the UK are treated like those arriving from outside Europe. Yes, EU passport holders get their own queue but it is still a queue.

LuckyLloyd · 28-11-2018 06:26PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

It's precisely because of work like this that a second referendum should be facilitated. That and the position papers eventually produced by government throughout the process to date, etc.

If the voters choose to ignore all of this a second time, well fair enough. But it is a nonsense to say the same context exists as that upon which the 2016 referendum was fought.

lawred2 · 28-11-2018 06:28PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

Ouch

Project Fear I suppose

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 06:30PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That's rubbish imo. The 2016 referendum was:
High level and non specific on a topic that has proven enormously complex and detailed

Involved a major Leave organisation being in breach of rules

Featurerd major disinformation and was not monitored by an appropriately empowered referendum commission

We now have an actual negotiated position available and that offers a completely rational basis on which to go back to the people. Two and a half years later, a huge amount of the hearsay and disinformation has actually been narrowed down and disproven with a quantifiable deal on the table and a more realistic outline of the potential process / timetable it implies mapped out ahead.

And in any case, a question of leaving the EU is honestly more fundamental than the vast majority of the slate of decisions faced by a HoC during a typical government. Only the question of going to war is more fundamental, and that isn't necessarily run by parliament in every scenario.

I'm surprised you hold this position based on your contributions in this thread to date, to be honest.

Jebus, steady on there.

It is only my assessment of what is likely to happen in the UK, not a commentary on what my position is.

The points you raised are of course all valid, but seemingly have no impact in the UK. There is no a major call for a 2nd Ref, the people are very much in the "just get on with it", I'm bored of Brexit camp.

So we are talking about what is likely to happen in the UK, not, and this cannot be overstressed, what is the actual rational and best course of action.

Of course a second Ref is the best option, for the points you raised, but do you think anyone is going to make that case in the UK without being shouted down?

Hammond came out today with DoF estimates and projections and they were roundly ignored and called useless by many MP's. Davis stood up in the HoC and claimed that no economic forecast has ever been correct, and by implication, the DoF can be ignored.

Carney will be ripped to shreds by the likes of Johnson and JRM in the papers tomorrow. It is in that context that you think the people will vote again? There isn't the time, remainers are largely classed as elite traitors, and the predictions going into the campaign from the remain side are accounted as worthless (which upon any close inspection shows that they were more right than wrong)

Frank Bullitt · 28-11-2018 06:37PM

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1067791873945845762

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1067792191345647616

Here comes Boris, I knew he was a clown, but not on this level.

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 06:53PM

Well they are not forecasts since they don't know what is actually going to happen in Brexit. But they are forecasts of what they think is likely to happen with a crash out and all the other issues.

They are not classing them as forecasts because, as the Johnson tweets show, people simply ignore forecasts (without ever explaining how we are supposed to plan for anything without them or how they came to there position about Brexit being good for UK).

But that is exactly where the UK is at the moment. Experts are to be ignored, forecasts are rubbish (does anyone think Johnson has taken the time to understand the underlying assumptions and calculations on which they are based?).

Frank Bullitt · 28-11-2018 07:01PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well they are not forecasts since they don't know what is actually going to happen in Brexit. But they are forecasts of what they think is likely to happen with a crash out and all the other issues.

They are not classing them as forecasts because, as the Johnson tweets show, people simply ignore forecasts (without ever explaining how we are supposed to plan for anything without them or how they came to there position about Brexit being good for UK).

But that is exactly where the UK is at the moment. Experts are to be ignored, forecasts are rubbish (does anyone think Johnson has taken the time to understand the underlying assumptions and calculations on which they are based?).

If there were 100 reports published and 99 of them were like the one published today, and the remaining 1 forecast something positive they would cling to that in an instant, even if the report they favoured was published by a busman.

It seems that at this stage, absolutely nothing on this earth will convince the Brexiters that they are heading for the stone age.

Professor Moriarty · 28-11-2018 07:05PM

Gintonious wrote: »

If there were 100 reports published and 99 of them were like the one published today, and the remaining 1 forecast something positive they would cling to that in an instant, even if the report they favoured was published by a busman.

It seems that at this stage, absolutely nothing on this earth will convince the Brexiters that they are heading for the stone age.

What's your problem with busmen?

flatty · 28-11-2018 07:17PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

Jebus, steady on there.

It is only my assessment of what is likely to happen in the UK, not a commentary on what my position is.

The points you raised are of course all valid, but seemingly have no impact in the UK. There is no a major call for a 2nd Ref, the people are very much in the "just get on with it", I'm bored of Brexit camp.

So we are talking about what is likely to happen in the UK, not, and this cannot be overstressed, what is the actual rational and best course of action.

Of course a second Ref is the best option, for the points you raised, but do you think anyone is going to make that case in the UK without being shouted down?

Hammond came out today with DoF estimates and projections and they were roundly ignored and called useless by many MP's. Davis stood up in the HoC and claimed that no economic forecast has ever been correct, and by implication, the DoF can be ignored.

Carney will be ripped to shreds by the likes of Johnson and JRM in the papers tomorrow. It is in that context that you think the people will vote again? There isn't the time, remainers are largely classed as elite traitors, and the predictions going into the campaign from the remain side are accounted as worthless (which upon any close inspection shows that they were more right than wrong)

Who says the people are very much in the "get on with it" mindset?
A few irate Jeremy Kyle callers, the daily wail, the express, and people with absolute agendas like May, fox, Davis and Johnson and their ilk.
It's bullshyte, used to ram through a brexit, any brexit. The same voices would be howling for another run at it were the boot on the other foot.

UsedToWait · 28-11-2018 07:32PM

The honorable Mr Fysh was on the BBC News there rubbishing the Bank of England reports as Project Fear part deux.

My fear is that people are so politically disengaged over there, and society (which famously Mrs Thatch told us didn't exist) so fragmented, that the Brexiteers will get their way in the end.

The Beeb, whose only saving grace these days is the venerable Mr Attenborough, also showed that complete idiot Davis, rubbishing the economic forecasts.
How he is even considered as an authority on anything beyond tying his own shoelaces is a mystery to me.

LuckyLloyd · 28-11-2018 07:32PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really cannot see it happening. Quite apart from the lack of MP's calling for it, I think it sets a dangerous precedent going forward.

Each government gets it power from the vote of the people, they are pretty much allowed to get away with anything during the time as people voted for them. This would basically be admitting that the HoC cannot govern the country.

What is the knock on effect of that?

I mean this only in the context of the UK, normal democracies could see the value. Its akin to the POTUS, once voted in it is almost impossible to remove them due to going against the vote of the people.

The voters in the UK decided to leave, the HoC now need to inact that wish.

@Leroy my response to this was based on the way it's written: it reads as your opinion on what should happen; rather than a likely prediction.

Frank Bullitt · 28-11-2018 07:37PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What's your problem with busmen?

Once they are on time, I have no issue with them

Beechwoodspark · 28-11-2018 07:38PM

At this stage I suspect the no deal scenario will happen but only for a short time when the UK finally sees the consequences. Up until then they will play a game of chicken with the EU. Boris and the brexiters will be nowhere to be seen for the task of cleaning up after it

Frank Bullitt · 28-11-2018 07:56PM

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1067853557221785601

This is really something, attacking Mark Carney more than actually attacking what he has said.

Yikes, it's getting worse and worse.

Professor Moriarty · 28-11-2018 08:07PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1067853557221785601

This is really something, attacking Mark Carney more than actually attacking what he has said.

Yikes, it's getting worse and worse.

A true Brexiteer will sink to any depth.

Thargor · 28-11-2018 08:07PM

Did you see her leering death grin in the HoC earlier when she bizarrely claimed the report doesn't say they'll be poorer after this (all the scenarios in that report say this)? Shes not fully human.

RobMc59 · 28-11-2018 08:07PM

It would be interesting to know how many people posting on this brexit forum live in the UK?-The reason I say this is because all the news channels I have watched today have clearly said a no deal brexit would be catastrophic for the UK whilst not leaving the EU is better than ANY leave/deal scenario. And that doesn't seem to be what is being said here..

UsedToWait · 28-11-2018 08:10PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

It would be interesting to know how many people posting on this brexit forum live in the UK?-The reason I say this is because all the news channels I have watched today have clearly said a no deal brexit would be catastrophic for the UK whilst not leaving the EU is better than ANY leave/deal scenario. And that doesn't seem to be what is being said here..

So you didn't see any of the pushback from the Brexiteers, detailed above?

I find that hard to believe.

lawred2 · 28-11-2018 08:14PM

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1067853557221785601

This is really something, attacking Mark Carney more than actually attacking what he has said.

Yikes, it's getting worse and worse.

Trump style personal attacks are the norm now. Good god political discourse is in the toilet.

Frank Bullitt · 28-11-2018 08:15PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A true Brexiteer will sink to any depth.

Its a tad ironic that Mr Mogg calls someone "second rate" when he himself is a backbencher.

Folkstonian · 28-11-2018 08:19PM

Gintonious wrote: »

Its a tad ironic that Mr Mogg calls someone "second rate" when he himself is a backbencher.

When politicians of the calibre of Dianne Abbott, Amber Rudd, and Theresa May occupy the front benches, it becomes clear that where you sit in the house is not an indication of your ability

Professor Moriarty · 28-11-2018 08:23PM

Gintonious wrote: »

Its a tad ironic that Mr Mogg calls someone "second rate" when he himself is a backbencher.

Jacob, being a wealthy Old Etonian, has a much different agenda to many Leave voters. He harks back to the good old days of empire and a white England where everybody knows their place. Interestingly, many working class Leave voters project their fears onto Jacob and see him as the embodiment of an England that is long gone. A kind of Lord or Earl who will look after them. It's a unique and deferential part of the English psyche that is hard to understand but it's what he plays into when he attacks Johnny Foreigners such as Carney the Canadian.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-11-2018 08:25PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No but I get the impression that a lot of people, thought not nearly enough have woken up to the con.

The WWII spirit/Agincourt thing tends to be more common among older people in my experience who will of course be fine given that they own homes. It's the younger people who will bear the consequences and are less likely to spout such claptrap.

Remove the triple lock.
At present pensioners go up annually by the largest of 2.5%, average wages or rate of inflation. Is it sustainable in a poorer economy ?

Also hard Brexit could mean house prices fall by 30%

Capt'n Midnight · 28-11-2018 08:25PM

Link to UK Gov't Long-term economic analysis
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759762/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf

Or the tl;dr version

RobMc59 · 28-11-2018 08:26PM

UsedToWait wrote: »

So you didn't see any of the pushback from the Brexiteers, detailed above?

I find that hard to believe.

Of course I saw it but nobody takes Rees Mogg or Johnson seriously and all outcomes have been looked at-not just no deal brexit.

ancapailldorcha · 28-11-2018 08:35PM

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Remove the triple lock.
At present pensioners go up annually by the largest of 2.5%, average wages or rate of inflation. Is it sustainable in a poorer economy ?

Also hard Brexit could mean house prices fall by 30%

I don't disagree but how does one accomplish this in a world where younger people are ignoring traditional media for social media while said traditional media thrives on scaring pensioners about being ripped off when they're making off like bandits.

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 08:45PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

UsedToWait wrote: »

So you didn't see any of the pushback from the Brexiteers, detailed above?

I find that hard to believe.

Of course I saw it but nobody takes Rees Mogg or Johnson seriously and all outcomes have been looked at-not just no deal brexit.

They very certainly do pay them great heed. It was in part at least, because of Johnson that Leave one.

We also get most UK channels over here, so not living in the UK is not really relevant.

The issue is not that the channels are not reporting on the reports, but they are giving the likes of JRM and Johnson equal time and making them out to be equal status experts rather than simply opinion pieces.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-11-2018 08:48PM

prinzeugen wrote: »

Considering the amount of fresh food brought in by air these days.. Not much. Warehouses would be full at this time of year anyway. Its called Christmas!!

If it was just temporary for Christmas then it woudn't have been news. And what about the quarter of a year after Christmas before Brexit ?

As for the air freight
Another major supermarket executive said that air freight isn't the answer: "There simply isn't the capacity at a moment when every other industry will be trying to do the same thing."

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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