Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The ESRI were publishing detailed guidelines back in November 2015, that made it very clear that if the Brexit referendum was passed and the UK left the EU there could very serious consequences for us.

Had anyone in the UK bothered to read it they'd have know that we'd be taking action PDQ.


Meanwhile in the UK in April 2017 the ESRC were announcing funding for 18 month long "research projects focusing on the process and consequences of the UK leaving the European Union."

It was written by experts in Ireland, many of whom probably don't even have Oxbridge accents. Of course it wasn't taken seriously in London.

Anything which disagreed with the dogmatic approach to Brexit and anyone who was perceived as an expert presenting an opinion that the Brexiteers didn't like was dismissed as being part of the "project fear" conspiracy theory.

They weren't taking experts seriously at all and it seems that any reports coming from UK officialdom or think tanks that were contrary to pro-Brexit lines were just ignored.

British industry and commercial lobbies also remained remarkably silent. I know that many commercially focused companies were rather loathed to get involved in politics and I would suspect that most of them assumed that this whole nonsense would just go away. So, to avoid controversy they kept their opinions to themselves until it was far too late. All of that shouting about 'project fear' worked - it silenced industry.

There is an absolutely huge problem with Ireland not being taken seriously in certain aspects of the UK. I don't really think they saw us as a serious trading partner. If you look at the media commentary and statements from various politicians, even though we're a bigger market for UK goods than China and we're their largest food export market. Yet, they seem to see us as some kind of remote backwater that's irrelevant to them. There's most definitely an aspect of British politics and commentary that just sees Ireland as a totally irrelevant and through the lens of stereotypes.

The whole Northern Ireland border issue also continues to be framed as "the Irish Question" and in the context of seeing Ireland as a stumbling block full of trouble makers who are getting in the way of a glorious Brexit.

The reality for the UK is if Brexit causes issues for Irish retailers and other purchasers of UK goods and services here, they will switch very rapidly away from UK supply chains and that will cost the British economy a significant amount of money and put jobs are risk in manufacturing and logistics especially in areas like food.

They also completely ignored all warnings on the risks of going into government supported by the DUP. Many people had no idea what "a DUP" was before they were already signing a deal with them.

I have worked with and have had long discussions with Tory-types in England in the past (before Brexit) and the attitudes towards Ireland are genuinely bizarre. It simply does not feature in their thought processes at all and many of them either think of it in terms of stereotypes or frame it in the context of the Troubles and I'm not talking about old people here. There's also usually a complete blank in their knowledge of Irish history or even sometimes no awareness that it isn't in the UK. I have had to go through the whole discussion of "no, really I'm not British. It's a different country..." These guys would be in their 30s / 40s at this stage and are well educated.

There's a very rude awakening on its way as they realise that their neighbouring countries are actually serious economies and they've just potentially undermined the best trade deal they will ever get with anyone - EU single market membership.

Water John wrote: »

Boris speaking at the DUP has no problem using the Irish border issue to his own ends.

He's used absolutely everything to his own ends. I don't think there's likely to be any difference in terms of how he would interact with the topic of the Irish border.

It's worrying that they basically have no idea what they are dealing with in Northern Ireland in terms of the political instability, the sectarianism or the huge risks. They are quite literally playing with fire and ignoring all warnings that fire can burn.

Also, if it does burn, it's likely to burn someone else and not him, so he doesn't care.

The DUP are absolutely deluded if they think these guys care at all about them or about Northern Ireland. They're a useful tool and that's all they are. There will be no loyalty or thanks whatsoever for supporting the Tories. If it wasn't for the Tories having found themselves in an embarrassing position where they needed their votes, they'd have thrown Northern Ireland aside at the earliest opportunity and they will do exactly that as soon as it's convenient.

If the DUP had any sense they would pull the plug now and let a UK General Election happen. Unfortunately, I think they've allowed themselves to be flattered by false friends and they're high on power.

They're dealing with people who would probably sell Northern Ireland on eBay if they could get away with it!

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think this Gibraltar episode has been bad for Ireland and will have a detrimental effect on May's ability to get the deal through. David Ervine once said "You cannot leave another negotiator with no bus fare home." The humiliation here is plain for all to see and with that being the case, I think that makes the UK's wounded pride dangerous.

The Brexiteers would have struggled to use NI as part of their rallying cry to oppose Brexit on patriotic grounds what with businesses increasingly coming out in favour of the WA, but now along comes Gibraltar to offer precisely such an opportunity. I suspect they'll now present torpedoing the agreement as their 'patriotic duty' and frame it as plucky Blighty standing up to the continental bullies.

I don't think it makes a difference TBH. The Withdrawal Agreement probably isn't going to be put through by Brexiter votes either way.

It's almost certainly going to need significant Labour votes, which will eventually be gotten to avoid no deal. It almost certainly won't be gotten in the first vote though - but that will be far from the end of the matter.

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit in a doomsday scenario that convinced Michael Gove to back Theresa May’s deal.

https://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-6425479/Michael-Gove-backed-hearing-UK-run-drinking-water-DAYS-No-Deal.html