Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

robinph

Akrasia wrote: »

I thought asking people to vote for the same thing twice was undemocratic?

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

But the deal is still better than admitting that you were wrong in their opinion.

FreudianSlippers

Akrasia wrote: »

I thought asking people to vote for the same thing twice was undemocratic?

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

It's not undemocratic; but the point to which you're attempting to refer is moot anyway. If the people vote one way on an issue and then the issue is re-addressed and clarified to the public, it is not undemocratic to ask them if, in the light of new facts, they want to make the same decision.

Imreoir2

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Gib being tackled through a "separate declaration", which essentially is diplomatic speak for giving Spain a toothless token to keep them quiet:

http://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1065980725017620481

That might be all they want. I was listening to Tony Connelly's Brexit podcast and it seems that there is an election in one of Spain's regions next week and there is a feeling that the Spanish government is saber ratteling to gain support and that this won't prove to be an insurmountable obstical to a deal.

EdgeCase

What's not democratic is presenting half truths and lies as if they were facts and asking people to vote on something that they had paid not attention to the deals of.

If this were a signed contract or agreement in a business context and it had been negotiated on that basis, you would have a strong argument to go to court and say that you were mislead and seek to have the contract deemed void. it's totally unreasonable to hold someone to a contract that they did not understand or had insufficient information to make an informed decision about. It's even worse when that information was false or deliberately withheld
(e.g. refusal to do or release proper economic analysis of impacts)

You can't just lie and spin to people and then refuse to allow them to reconsider. I really do not think that the majority of the UK population were presented the facts on this and the way the referendum was conducted was pretty poor.

Also the goalposts were changed after the referendum. I distinctly remember various arguments being made about how the UK would leave the EU while still having full access to the single market and so on. Those have turned out to have been total nonsense. At best it was ill informed, at worst it was deliberately misleading.

PeadarCo

Akrasia wrote:

If this bad deal is passed due to fear of No deal, it is a shocking failure of political leadership when pretty much everyone accepts that the deal on the table is worse than remaining in the EU.

But is that not the whole reason behind opposition to Brexit. Every deal the UK has available is worse than staying in the EU at least from an economic perspective. Its not bad leadership its just the reality of the situation.

For all May's failings her job is a poisoned chalice given how clueless some Brexiters and elements of the UK public appear to be about international trade and the UKs relative position in it. Raabs lack of knowledge of the importance of the Dover Calais sea route being a prime example. Even after the guts of 2 years negotiations its amazing how dismissive certain Brexiters are of certain facts.

LeinsterDub

Roger_007 wrote: »

I find it odd that the hottest issue in the Brexit debate before the referendum, the immigration issue, has hardly featured at all since the referendum. Now the big issues are the pros and cons of the customs union and the single market and trade deals.
If the referendum was rerun, would the debate be an entirely different one?

Listen to James O Brien and you'll find for a certain cohort of it's still the be all and end all

Strazdas

Roger_007 wrote: »

I find it odd that the hottest issue in the Brexit debate before the referendum, the immigration issue, has hardly featured at all since the referendum. Now the big issues are the pros and cons of the customs union and the single market and trade deals.
If the referendum was rerun, would the debate be an entirely different one?

The right wing rags seem to have completely lost interest in the subject. Was it always just a Trojan horse for them ie. whip the masses into hysteria over the immigration "crisis"?

There's no doubt though that every xenophobe in the UK voted to leave.

LeinsterDub

Strazdas wrote: »

The right wing rags seem to have completely lost interest in the subject. Was it always just a Trojan horse for them ie. whip the masses into hysteria over the immigration "crisis"?

There's no doubt though that every xenophobe in the UK voted to leave.

I think it more the case the right wing rags trying to pivot away from the complete clusteruck that is brexit

brickster69

The EU have fell into the trap hook, line and sinker. The EU nations are now squabbling about fish and a rock in the Med. Meanwhile the City of London has been very quiet and seem quite happy to be totally out of the equation now.

The world is watching and very nervous.

keane2097

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU have fell into the trap hook, line and sinker. The EU nations are now squabbling about fish and a rock in the Med. Meanwhile the City of London has been very quiet and seem quite happy to be totally out of the equation now.

The world is watching and very nervous.

And in Mother Russia delusion suffers from you.

brickster69

keane2097 wrote: »

And in Mother Russia delusion suffers from you.

Do you not think it is strange though that 80% of the UK economy are not panicking to be in the EU ?

judeboy101

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The EU isn’t wasting any time. Negotiations concluded and this is the best deal the UK will get. The options for the UK close off by the day. They can no longer renegotiate and they are nearly past the point of no return on ability to mitigate worst parts of a disorderly exit.

If the deal is rejected Dec 10th, Sterling will plummet below €1; the EU will kick No Deal plans into gear (and they’re more organised and have much greater resources); and UK companies will initiate contingency plans publicly. Second vote will then pass early January.

Check mate.

A masterful display of unity and process demonstrating how to create and exploit leverages when the stakes are at their highest. All the Telegraph / Brexiteer’s bluster is made to look so childish and inconsequential.

Pound will drop a few cent against dollar, no more. UK will extract confessions from Brussels on backstop and they will be happy.

FreudianSlippers

judeboy101 wrote: »

Pound will drop a few cent against dollar, no more. UK will extract confessions from Brussels on backstop and they will be happy.

Yeah, but how much will it drop against the Euro?

RobMc59

Strazdas wrote: »

The right wing rags seem to have completely lost interest in the subject. Was it always just a Trojan horse for them ie. whip the masses into hysteria over the immigration "crisis"?

There's no doubt though that every xenophobe in the UK voted to leave.

The thing is though,there are a lot of people in Ireland who are unhappy about immigration-it`s a cause of concern everywhere,it`s just not spoken about.I`ve seen coach loads of eastern europeans on the ferry from Holyhead and they`re not on holiday-to say this is exclusively a British thing is'nt the case.

judeboy101

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Yeah, but how much will it drop against the Euro?

It'll Push 90p to the €, the city have built it into the current price.

GSRNBP

judeboy101 wrote: »

It'll Push 90p to the €, the city have built it into the current price.

One of my clients is an Irish/UK private bank and they (and most others) have built £1:€1 into their hedging actually.

FreudianSlippers

judeboy101 wrote: »

It'll Push 90p to the €, the city have built it into the current price.

Misread your post the first time... but it was at 89p yesterday, are you suggesting banks are fine with £0.01 price fluctuation between now and April?

LeinsterDub

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGsvoLkDuG8

Channel 4 doing an excellent job of explaining some of the potential the HoC paths in the next month.

serfboard

kowtow wrote: »

the risk of hard brexit is already largely discounted

The wild swings of the pound every time we get close to, or move away from, a deal suggests to me that this is not correct.

oscarBravo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Channel 4 doing an excellent job of explaining some of the potential the HoC paths in the next month.

BBC :pac:

gimli2112

Alister Campbell finishing his argument with the newsreader on BBC news said something like that's the problem with this place too many leavers in here. She wasn't happy, being impartial and all. Hard to see a way out of this mess.

josip

Since a significant majority of Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to Remain, if the UK can carve those off the Union, then the Leavers in what's left would have a substantial majority and there will be stability.

Anthracite

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU have fell into the trap hook, line and sinker. The EU nations are now squabbling about fish and a rock in the Med. Meanwhile the City of London has been very quiet and seem quite happy to be totally out of the equation now.

The world is watching and very nervous.

The trap of meeting May's last minute objections with their own?

This is a bit like one of those situations where a bear traps a human by putting his hairy paw in a metal clamp and staying put until he is dead.

poppers

I cannot understand How has gibaraltar only come on the agenda now. Ni has been the main stumbling block since day 1 .

Imreoir2

poppers wrote: »

I cannot understand How has gibaraltar only come on the agenda now. Ni has been the main stumbling block since day 1 .

It would seem that the issue was raised from day one, but that the asurences Span saught were not included in the final text in unambigious form, it is surprising that the EU team would drop the ball like this by putting a member state in the position of having to threaten to veto a deal because of either an omisson or concesson to the UK.

Time will tell how serious the problem is for Spain, but it is disapointing that the EU consensus seems to be undermined at the last hurdle.

LeinsterDub

oscarBravo wrote: »

BBC :pac:

D'oh was watching C4 news and it came up and I naturally though it was C4 as the beeb are generally useless.

First Up

poppers wrote: »

I cannot understand How has gibaraltar only come on the agenda now. Ni has been the main stumbling block since day 1 .

Gibraltar is not an exit deal breaker for the EU but its a nice tasty one for Spain to leverage on the future arrangements.

murphaph

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It would seem that the issue was raised from day one, but that the asurences Span saught were not included in the final text in unambigious form, it is surprising that the EU team would drop the ball like this by putting a member state in the position of having to threaten to veto a deal because of either an omisson or concesson to the UK.

Time will tell how serious the problem is for Spain, but it is disapointing that the EU consensus seems to be undermined at the last hurdle.

Don't be surprised if this is as a result of language. The draft agreement is presumably in English so easy for the Irish DFA to interpret fairly unambiguously. Perhaps the Spanish responsible are not native English speakers (rather likely) were not as well placed to keep an eye on all the changes in the texts. As far as I'm concerned the Irish should show 100% solidarity with our fellow future EU partner, Spain. They made it clear from the beginning that Gibraltar would require their consent to partake in any future trade deals negotiated with the UK.

Imreoir2

murphaph wrote: »

Don't be surprised if this is as a result of language. The draft agreement is presumably in English so easy for the Irish DFA to interpret fairly unambiguously. Perhaps the Spanish responsible are not native English speakers (rather likely) were not as well placed to keep an eye on all the changes in the texts. As far as I'm concerned the Irish should show 100% solidarity with our fellow future EU partner, Spain. They made it clear from the beginning that Gibraltar would require their consent to partake in any future trade deals negotiated with the UK.

An interesting point over language. Hopefully a clarification annex or something like that will be sufficient to satisify Spain.

I think you are right, Ireland should show soladarity with Spain, had we been in their position over the backstop we would be looking for solidarity from other member states. I think it is appropriate for us to give what we would have been asking for in that situation.

RobMc59

Imreoir2 wrote: »

An interesting point over language. Hopefully a clarification annex or something like that will be sufficient to satisify Spain.

I think you are right, Ireland should show soladarity with Spain, had we been in their position over the backstop we would be looking for solidarity from other member states. I think it is appropriate for us to give what we would have been asking for in that situation.

That is potentially a banana skin for the brexit deal going through.If Spain use their veto and the UK dig their heels in where does that leave everything?The brexiteers will be rubbing their hands with glee..