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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Hurrache

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The humiliation here is plain for all to see and with that being the case, I think that makes the UK's wounded pride dangerous.

Unless you have self humiliation, I'm struggling to see it?

Econ__

Britain would run out of clean drinking water within days of a no-deal Brexit in a doomsday scenario that convinced Michael Gove to back Theresa May’s deal.

https://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-6425479/Michael-Gove-backed-hearing-UK-run-drinking-water-DAYS-No-Deal.html

Capt'n Midnight

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think this Gibraltar episode has been bad for Ireland and will have a detrimental effect on May's ability to get the deal through.

I think it's been good for her.

Everyone in the UK can now see exactly why she won't be able to get a better deal. Which makes it easier for May to sell the deal she has got.

It's take it or leave it time, otherwise the choices are Remain or Pain.

Econ__

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I think this Gibraltar episode has been bad for Ireland and will have a detrimental effect on May's ability to get the deal through. David Ervine once said "You cannot leave another negotiator with no bus fare home." The humiliation here is plain for all to see and with that being the case, I think that makes the UK's wounded pride dangerous.

The Brexiteers would have struggled to use NI as part of their rallying cry to oppose Brexit on patriotic grounds what with businesses increasingly coming out in favour of the WA, but now along comes Gibraltar to offer precisely such an opportunity. I suspect they'll now present torpedoing the agreement as their 'patriotic duty' and frame it as plucky Blighty standing up to the continental bullies.

I don't think it makes a difference TBH. The Withdrawal Agreement probably isn't going to be put through by Brexiter votes either way.

It's almost certainly going to need significant Labour votes, which will eventually be gotten to avoid no deal. It almost certainly won't be gotten in the first vote though - but that will be far from the end of the matter.

Mr.Nice Guy

I think this Gibraltar episode has been bad for Ireland and will have a detrimental effect on May's ability to get the deal through. David Ervine once said "You cannot leave another negotiator with no bus fare home." The humiliation here is plain for all to see and with that being the case, I think that makes the UK's wounded pride dangerous.

The Brexiteers would have struggled to use NI as part of their rallying cry to oppose Brexit on patriotic grounds what with businesses increasingly coming out in favour of the WA, but now along comes Gibraltar to offer precisely such an opportunity. I suspect they'll now present torpedoing the agreement as their 'patriotic duty' and frame it as plucky Blighty standing up to the continental bullies.

EdgeCase

Water John wrote: »

Boris speaking at the DUP has no problem using the Irish border issue to his own ends.

He's used absolutely everything to his own ends. I don't think there's likely to be any difference in terms of how he would interact with the topic of the Irish border.

It's worrying that they basically have no idea what they are dealing with in Northern Ireland in terms of the political instability, the sectarianism or the huge risks. They are quite literally playing with fire and ignoring all warnings that fire can burn.

Also, if it does burn, it's likely to burn someone else and not him, so he doesn't care.

The DUP are absolutely deluded if they think these guys care at all about them or about Northern Ireland. They're a useful tool and that's all they are. There will be no loyalty or thanks whatsoever for supporting the Tories. If it wasn't for the Tories having found themselves in an embarrassing position where they needed their votes, they'd have thrown Northern Ireland aside at the earliest opportunity and they will do exactly that as soon as it's convenient.

If the DUP had any sense they would pull the plug now and let a UK General Election happen. Unfortunately, I think they've allowed themselves to be flattered by false friends and they're high on power.

They're dealing with people who would probably sell Northern Ireland on eBay if they could get away with it!

Water John

Boris speaking at the DUP has no problem using the Irish border issue to his own ends.

EdgeCase

They weren't taking experts seriously at all and it seems that any reports coming from UK officialdom or think tanks that were contrary to pro-Brexit lines were just ignored.

British industry and commercial lobbies also remained remarkably silent. I know that many commercially focused companies were rather loathed to get involved in politics and I would suspect that most of them assumed that this whole nonsense would just go away. So, to avoid controversy they kept their opinions to themselves until it was far too late. All of that shouting about 'project fear' worked - it silenced industry.

There is an absolutely huge problem with Ireland not being taken seriously in certain aspects of the UK. I don't really think they saw us as a serious trading partner. If you look at the media commentary and statements from various politicians, even though we're a bigger market for UK goods than China and we're their largest food export market. Yet, they seem to see us as some kind of remote backwater that's irrelevant to them. There's most definitely an aspect of British politics and commentary that just sees Ireland as a totally irrelevant and through the lens of stereotypes.

The whole Northern Ireland border issue also continues to be framed as "the Irish Question" and in the context of seeing Ireland as a stumbling block full of trouble makers who are getting in the way of a glorious Brexit.

The reality for the UK is if Brexit causes issues for Irish retailers and other purchasers of UK goods and services here, they will switch very rapidly away from UK supply chains and that will cost the British economy a significant amount of money and put jobs are risk in manufacturing and logistics especially in areas like food.

They also completely ignored all warnings on the risks of going into government supported by the DUP. Many people had no idea what "a DUP" was before they were already signing a deal with them.

I have worked with and have had long discussions with Tory-types in England in the past (before Brexit) and the attitudes towards Ireland are genuinely bizarre. It simply does not feature in their thought processes at all and many of them either think of it in terms of stereotypes or frame it in the context of the Troubles and I'm not talking about old people here. There's also usually a complete blank in their knowledge of Irish history or even sometimes no awareness that it isn't in the UK. I have had to go through the whole discussion of "no, really I'm not British. It's a different country..." These guys would be in their 30s / 40s at this stage and are well educated.

There's a very rude awakening on its way as they realise that their neighbouring countries are actually serious economies and they've just potentially undermined the best trade deal they will ever get with anyone - EU single market membership.

Capt'n Midnight

EdgeCase wrote: »

It was written by experts in Ireland, many of whom probably don't even have Oxbridge accents. Of course it wasn't taken seriously in London.

Completely irrelevant.

When the national Think Tank of one of your main trading partners starts freaking out about something you're doing it's time to consider what they might do next.

EdgeCase

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The ESRI were publishing detailed guidelines back in November 2015, that made it very clear that if the Brexit referendum was passed and the UK left the EU there could very serious consequences for us.

Had anyone in the UK bothered to read it they'd have know that we'd be taking action PDQ.

Meanwhile in the UK in April 2017 the ESRC were announcing funding for 18 month long "research projects focusing on the process and consequences of the UK leaving the European Union."

It was written by experts in Ireland, many of whom probably don't even have Oxbridge accents. Of course it wasn't taken seriously in London.

Anything which disagreed with the dogmatic approach to Brexit and anyone who was perceived as an expert presenting an opinion that the Brexiteers didn't like was dismissed as being part of the "project fear" conspiracy theory.

An Ciarraioch

Water John wrote: »

If you don't know where you are going, as per UK, you are on a hiding to nothing in negotiations.

A withering comment on another forum:

"There is some irony in the observation that Brexit, which was going to return to the UK (the second or third largest EU economy) the exclusive power over its own destiny, has resulted in giving Spain (the sixth largest) and Ireland (the 14th largest) considerable power over the nature of that destiny, and that that power results from their membership of the EU".

Capt'n Midnight

Water John wrote: »

The Irish Govn't had launched a major EU wide diplomatic push immediately after the Brexit vote. The UK Govn't wondered what the hell do we do now?
Some nonsensical revision by some.

The ESRI were publishing detailed guidelines back in November 2015, that made it very clear that if the Brexit referendum was passed and the UK left the EU there could very serious consequences for us.

Had anyone in the UK bothered to read it they'd have know that we'd be taking action PDQ.

Meanwhile in the UK in April 2017 the ESRC were announcing funding for 18 month long "research projects focusing on the process and consequences of the UK leaving the European Union."

Water John

If you don't know where you are going, as per UK, you are on a hiding to nothing in negotiations.

EKRIUQ

trellheim wrote: »

Yes the spanish are starting to crow on twitter it looks as if TM has thrown the Rock under the bus https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1066360919020711936

( etc etc Dwayne Johnson jokes ).

Translation:
to all the diplomatic personnel and to all the civil servants that have formed part of the team of negotiators for Spain, the strength, dedication and professionalism for directing this result, very satisfactory for our interests.

Hurrache

trellheim wrote: »

Yes the spanish are starting to crow on twitter it looks as if TM has thrown the Rock under the bus https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1066360919020711936

( etc etc Dwayne Johnson jokes ).

Gibraltar says this
https://twitter.com/FabianPicardo/status/1066330715770552321?s=19

ancapailldorcha

Don't dump comedy videos here please. Post deleted.

trellheim

UK agreeing in writing a trade deal does not have to cover the Rock

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1066329399660818433

trellheim

Yes the spanish are starting to crow on twitter it looks as if TM has thrown the Rock under the bus https://twitter.com/JosepBorrellF/status/1066360919020711936

( etc etc Dwayne Johnson jokes ).

Tell me how

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is all getting very humiliating for Britain now.

Spain has been given what looks like a veto on Gibraltar.

May is handing away the jewels of empire to the EU one by one and all for a trade deal they might not get.

I think it's looking ever more likely that the deal is not going to get through parliament given views expressed towards it from all sides in the UK in recent days.

Tell me how

EdgeCase wrote: »

The juvenile attempt at ‘humor’ with the rather unpleasant caricature of Varadkar that looks like something out of Punch magazine was enough to make me not even bother reading the article.

It looked more like a caricature mashup of Berlusconi and Mubarak than Varadkar.

I've heard Halligan on Eamon Dunphy and thought he made more sense about the reasons for Brexit than some like JRM and Johnson etc but he still seems to be influenced more by stereotype ideas than real world realities.

Kermit.de.frog

This is all getting very humiliating for Britain now.

Spain has been given what looks like a veto on Gibraltar.

May is handing away the jewels of empire to the EU one by one and all for a trade deal they might not get.

Charles Babbage

Strazdas wrote: »

You can tell that Halligan doesn't live in Ireland and was paying zero attention to what was going on here in late 2016 - early 2017 (he was probably too busy acting as a cheerleader for Brexit and unaware that the Irish government under Kenny was sounding all sorts of alarm bells about the border).

This is making excuses for Halligan. He knows rightly, he is just telling lies.
Lies are the stock in trade of Brexit.

EdgeCase

The juvenile attempt at ‘humor’ with the rather unpleasant caricature of Varadkar that looks like something out of Punch magazine was enough to make me not even bother reading the article.

I then decided to read it purely as an exercise in psychological analysis of the Brexit psyche and it looks very much like they’re at the toys being thrown out of the pram phase.

Considering that he also seems to think that FG are a minority government supported by Irish nationalists really sums up how facts clearly don’t matter.

Water John

The Irish Govn't had launched a major EU wide diplomatic push immediately after the Brexit vote. The UK Govn't wondered what the hell do we do now?
Some nonsensical revision by some.

Strazdas

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Amazing revisionism by Liam Halligan today - Kenny never mentioned the Border either before or after the referendum, and it never arose at EU level until Varadkar took office (despite being one of the three pillars of the Withdrawal Agreement). Alongside the customary quotes from Trimble and Ray Bassett, Spectator readers learn that the Taoiseach is being kept in power by "Irish nationalists", which will flatter FF!

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/leo-varadkar-has-done-his-absolute-best-to-damage-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

You can tell that Halligan doesn't live in Ireland and was paying zero attention to what was going on here in late 2016 - early 2017 (he was probably too busy acting as a cheerleader for Brexit and unaware that the Irish government under Kenny was sounding all sorts of alarm bells about the border).

PeadarCo

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2018/11/24/what-to-expect-from-a-no-deal-brexit?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/whattoexpectfromanodealbrexitfreefalling.

A summary of the consequences of Brexit from the economist. A lot of which has been discussed here already. However its a fairly long summary. It makes for scary reading.

An Ciarraioch

Niall Collins reports 158,763 GB and NI applications for Irish passports so far this year - presumably up to and including October, which would mean 180k + by the end of the year:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/number-of-uk-residents-applying-for-irish-passports-increases-by-83-in-six-years-887562.html

A cursory Google shows that the current figure is virtually equal to that for the whole of 2017:

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/surge-in-irish-passport-applications-from-uk-36450675.html

judeboy101

Arlene speech was amazing. I particularly love the part about "our struggle as a people".

[Deleted User]

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Amazing revisionism by Liam Halligan today - Kenny never mentioned the Border either before or after the referendum, and it never arose at EU level until Varadkar took office (despite being one of the three pillars of the Withdrawal Agreement). Alongside the customary quotes from Trimble and Ray Bassett, Spectator readers learn that the Taoiseach is being kept in power by "Irish nationalists", which will flatter FF!

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/11/leo-varadkar-has-done-his-absolute-best-to-damage-brexit/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

I love how he gives out about big business lobbying for remain. Him formerly being part of the world's biggest Russia asset management company is irrelevant though.

Roanmore

McGiver wrote: »

Deluded liar, making stuff up. Creating the myth that Kenny was good and Varadkar bad who under the command of the EU came up with the Irish border question to "thwart Brexit". This is such a bullcrap, also with a tinfoil hat element.
The border issue was, is and always will be the primary Irish concern. The fact that the notion of the Irish border came up only after Varadkar replaced Kenny is simply due to the sheer Brexiteer's ignorance, especially Davis, the first year after the referendum was full of total delusions, fantasies and focus on A50 hence the Irish border issue didn't occur to them.

Tin foil hat stuff.

FF is the new SF, oh my. The rest is more cakes and more unicorns.

Eoghan Harris is peddling this stuff every week in the Sunday Independent.