Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

LeinsterDub · 23-11-2018 07:05PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The right wing rags seem to have completely lost interest in the subject. Was it always just a Trojan horse for them ie. whip the masses into hysteria over the immigration "crisis"?

There's no doubt though that every xenophobe in the UK voted to leave.

I think it more the case the right wing rags trying to pivot away from the complete clusteruck that is brexit

brickster69 · 23-11-2018 07:09PM

The EU have fell into the trap hook, line and sinker. The EU nations are now squabbling about fish and a rock in the Med. Meanwhile the City of London has been very quiet and seem quite happy to be totally out of the equation now.

The world is watching and very nervous.

keane2097 · 23-11-2018 07:13PM

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU have fell into the trap hook, line and sinker. The EU nations are now squabbling about fish and a rock in the Med. Meanwhile the City of London has been very quiet and seem quite happy to be totally out of the equation now.

The world is watching and very nervous.

And in Mother Russia delusion suffers from you.

brickster69 · 23-11-2018 07:33PM

keane2097 wrote: »

And in Mother Russia delusion suffers from you.

Do you not think it is strange though that 80% of the UK economy are not panicking to be in the EU ?

judeboy101 · 23-11-2018 07:38PM

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

The EU isn’t wasting any time. Negotiations concluded and this is the best deal the UK will get. The options for the UK close off by the day. They can no longer renegotiate and they are nearly past the point of no return on ability to mitigate worst parts of a disorderly exit.

If the deal is rejected Dec 10th, Sterling will plummet below €1; the EU will kick No Deal plans into gear (and they’re more organised and have much greater resources); and UK companies will initiate contingency plans publicly. Second vote will then pass early January.

Check mate.

A masterful display of unity and process demonstrating how to create and exploit leverages when the stakes are at their highest. All the Telegraph / Brexiteer’s bluster is made to look so childish and inconsequential.

Pound will drop a few cent against dollar, no more. UK will extract confessions from Brussels on backstop and they will be happy.

FreudianSlippers · 23-11-2018 07:42PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

Pound will drop a few cent against dollar, no more. UK will extract confessions from Brussels on backstop and they will be happy.

Yeah, but how much will it drop against the Euro?

RobMc59 · 23-11-2018 07:42PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The right wing rags seem to have completely lost interest in the subject. Was it always just a Trojan horse for them ie. whip the masses into hysteria over the immigration "crisis"?

There's no doubt though that every xenophobe in the UK voted to leave.

The thing is though,there are a lot of people in Ireland who are unhappy about immigration-it`s a cause of concern everywhere,it`s just not spoken about.I`ve seen coach loads of eastern europeans on the ferry from Holyhead and they`re not on holiday-to say this is exclusively a British thing is'nt the case.

judeboy101 · 23-11-2018 07:44PM

FreudianSlippers wrote: »

Yeah, but how much will it drop against the Euro?

It'll Push 90p to the €, the city have built it into the current price.

GSRNBP · 23-11-2018 07:48PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

It'll Push 90p to the €, the city have built it into the current price.

One of my clients is an Irish/UK private bank and they (and most others) have built £1:€1 into their hedging actually.

FreudianSlippers · 23-11-2018 07:53PM

judeboy101 wrote: »

It'll Push 90p to the €, the city have built it into the current price.

Misread your post the first time... but it was at 89p yesterday, are you suggesting banks are fine with £0.01 price fluctuation between now and April?

LeinsterDub · 23-11-2018 08:09PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGsvoLkDuG8

Channel 4 doing an excellent job of explaining some of the potential the HoC paths in the next month.

serfboard · 23-11-2018 08:11PM

kowtow wrote: »

the risk of hard brexit is already largely discounted

The wild swings of the pound every time we get close to, or move away from, a deal suggests to me that this is not correct.

oscarBravo · 23-11-2018 08:12PM

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Channel 4 doing an excellent job of explaining some of the potential the HoC paths in the next month.

BBC :pac:

gimli2112 · 23-11-2018 08:20PM

Alister Campbell finishing his argument with the newsreader on BBC news said something like that's the problem with this place too many leavers in here. She wasn't happy, being impartial and all. Hard to see a way out of this mess.

josip · 23-11-2018 08:24PM

Since a significant majority of Northern Ireland and Scotland voted to Remain, if the UK can carve those off the Union, then the Leavers in what's left would have a substantial majority and there will be stability.

Anthracite · 23-11-2018 08:29PM

brickster69 wrote: »

The EU have fell into the trap hook, line and sinker. The EU nations are now squabbling about fish and a rock in the Med. Meanwhile the City of London has been very quiet and seem quite happy to be totally out of the equation now.

The world is watching and very nervous.

The trap of meeting May's last minute objections with their own?

This is a bit like one of those situations where a bear traps a human by putting his hairy paw in a metal clamp and staying put until he is dead.

poppers · 23-11-2018 08:46PM

I cannot understand How has gibaraltar only come on the agenda now. Ni has been the main stumbling block since day 1 .

Imreoir2 · 23-11-2018 08:54PM

poppers wrote: »

I cannot understand How has gibaraltar only come on the agenda now. Ni has been the main stumbling block since day 1 .

It would seem that the issue was raised from day one, but that the asurences Span saught were not included in the final text in unambigious form, it is surprising that the EU team would drop the ball like this by putting a member state in the position of having to threaten to veto a deal because of either an omisson or concesson to the UK.

Time will tell how serious the problem is for Spain, but it is disapointing that the EU consensus seems to be undermined at the last hurdle.

LeinsterDub · 23-11-2018 08:57PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

BBC :pac:

D'oh was watching C4 news and it came up and I naturally though it was C4 as the beeb are generally useless.

First Up · 23-11-2018 09:04PM

poppers wrote: »

I cannot understand How has gibaraltar only come on the agenda now. Ni has been the main stumbling block since day 1 .

Gibraltar is not an exit deal breaker for the EU but its a nice tasty one for Spain to leverage on the future arrangements.

murphaph · 23-11-2018 09:05PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

It would seem that the issue was raised from day one, but that the asurences Span saught were not included in the final text in unambigious form, it is surprising that the EU team would drop the ball like this by putting a member state in the position of having to threaten to veto a deal because of either an omisson or concesson to the UK.

Time will tell how serious the problem is for Spain, but it is disapointing that the EU consensus seems to be undermined at the last hurdle.

Don't be surprised if this is as a result of language. The draft agreement is presumably in English so easy for the Irish DFA to interpret fairly unambiguously. Perhaps the Spanish responsible are not native English speakers (rather likely) were not as well placed to keep an eye on all the changes in the texts. As far as I'm concerned the Irish should show 100% solidarity with our fellow future EU partner, Spain. They made it clear from the beginning that Gibraltar would require their consent to partake in any future trade deals negotiated with the UK.

Imreoir2 · 23-11-2018 09:20PM

murphaph wrote: »

Don't be surprised if this is as a result of language. The draft agreement is presumably in English so easy for the Irish DFA to interpret fairly unambiguously. Perhaps the Spanish responsible are not native English speakers (rather likely) were not as well placed to keep an eye on all the changes in the texts. As far as I'm concerned the Irish should show 100% solidarity with our fellow future EU partner, Spain. They made it clear from the beginning that Gibraltar would require their consent to partake in any future trade deals negotiated with the UK.

An interesting point over language. Hopefully a clarification annex or something like that will be sufficient to satisify Spain.

I think you are right, Ireland should show soladarity with Spain, had we been in their position over the backstop we would be looking for solidarity from other member states. I think it is appropriate for us to give what we would have been asking for in that situation.

RobMc59 · 23-11-2018 09:39PM

Imreoir2 wrote: »

An interesting point over language. Hopefully a clarification annex or something like that will be sufficient to satisify Spain.

I think you are right, Ireland should show soladarity with Spain, had we been in their position over the backstop we would be looking for solidarity from other member states. I think it is appropriate for us to give what we would have been asking for in that situation.

That is potentially a banana skin for the brexit deal going through.If Spain use their veto and the UK dig their heels in where does that leave everything?The brexiteers will be rubbing their hands with glee..

An Ciarraioch · 23-11-2018 09:41PM

Public opinion is, somewhat slowly, shifting in relation to the deal:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1066049396373184513

An Ciarraioch · 23-11-2018 09:43PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Imreoir2 wrote: »

An interesting point over language. Hopefully a clarification annex or something like that will be sufficient to satisify Spain.

I think you are right, Ireland should show soladarity with Spain, had we been in their position over the backstop we would be looking for solidarity from other member states. I think it is appropriate for us to give what we would have been asking for in that situation.

That is potentially a banana skin for the brexit deal going through.If Spain use their veto and the UK dig their heels in where does that leave everything?The brexiteers will be rubbing their hands with glee..

The WA will still be passed on Sunday, so just a question now of what date the HoC vote will be fixed for.

CelticRambler · 23-11-2018 09:50PM

murphaph wrote: »

Don't be surprised if this is as a result of language. The draft agreement is presumably in English so easy for the Irish DFA to interpret fairly unambiguously. Perhaps the Spanish responsible are not native English speakers (rather likely) were not as well placed to keep an eye on all the changes in the texts.

Whatever else may have been involved, I doubt very much that "lost in translation" had anything to do with it!

If there's one thing the EU does really well, it's multilingual translation - in real time for discussions, and accurately for it documentation. Pay a visit to the EU parliament some day and see their language/translation services in work.

Professor Moriarty · 23-11-2018 09:57PM

GSRNBP wrote: »

One of my clients is an Irish/UK private bank and they (and most others) have built £1:€1 into their hedging actually.

That's a bloodbath. If the Brexiteers say the economy can withstand that or anything like it then they are truly delusional. Or liars.

Anthracite · 23-11-2018 09:58PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

That is potentially a banana skin for the brexit deal going through.If Spain use their veto and the UK dig their heels in where does that leave everything?The brexiteers will be rubbing their hands with glee..

Is there a veto at this stage? I believe not.

kowtow · 23-11-2018 10:00PM

GSRNBP wrote: »

One of my clients is an Irish/UK private bank and they (and most others) have built £1:€1 into their hedging actually.

If they have actually executed hedges at Parity they stand to incur a substantial loss if this deal goes through.

RobMc59 · 23-11-2018 10:06PM

Anthracite wrote: »

Is there a veto at this stage? I believe not.

According to the financial times they don`t have an official veto although a general consensus is preferable , if other countries support them it`s manna from heaven to rees -mogg and his chums.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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