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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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    #5642
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Infini wrote: »
    It's not so much terrifying it's just ridiculous at the sheer level of idiocy and how stupid and ignorant these people have gotten. They're no better than the populist idiots in other countries who end up pushing this right until they're essentially forced to buckle under the sheer weight of reality.

    I would honestly think though that May might be smart enough to call this whole thing off if no one can agree at least if her words the other day were anything to go by. I seriously doubt she wants to go down as the PM who either ruined Britain or brought about its end. The agreement is essentially the only one they'll get, they can either accept it OR if they try for a No Deal which everyone knows is not gonna work and a total disaster she basically cancels Brexit citing no ability for anyone to agree to an orderly withdrawal.

    The conservative party is a total mess but she knows even if their is a leadership challenge by her opponents the possibility of her Losing one is remote, hell they're struggling just to MOUNT one right now. The likelyhood of the WA passing is very low, the likelyhood of a No Deal Brexit is very high and the lack of time might work against another vote. The ONLY other option bar No Deal under this is basically to outright cancel Brexit, that WOULD easily pass the Bullshíteers are significantly outnumbered by the Remainer MP and if this were an option it would pass. It would likely be a GE shortly afterwards but May would at least not be the one to go down as the one who ended Britain and the only reason I can see why's she's still here after all the drama and bull has to be a sense of duty rather than ideology,

    If they get the 48 letters and have a no-confidence vote then she'll probably get through that, but if she doesn't then she's not allowed to stand in the subsequent actual leadership vote.

    They may have no confidence in her leadership, but nobody else want's the job. Whilst she's doing a horrible job badly, everyone else knows that it's not possible to be done well so just want to stand around shouting about how badly she's doing for the moment and let her take the blame.


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    #5643
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    If that was the case you'd have expected support for Brexit to collapse in the wake of the referendum. This hasn't happened, it's only shrunk slightly.

    Ah, but being British, once Brexit was declared the winner, it is only fair that everyone queues up to Brexit, anything else would not be cricket.


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    #5644
    SimonTemplar
    Registered Users Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭SimonTemplar


    If the proposal is rejected by the HoC, do you think May will go. I can't see her position being viable in that situation.

    If so, would a second ref become more likely or less likely?


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    #5645
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,088 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    SimonTemplar wrote: »
    If the proposal is rejected by the HoC, do you think May will go. I can't see her position being viable in that situation.

    If so, would a second ref become more likely or less likely?
    The only way she goes before Brexit actually happens is if she says fcuk it and walks out the door. Can't see anyone trying to actually get rid of her before then, they will all try to make noises along the lines of that they were trying to get rid of her, but that is the absolute last thing that anyone wants.

    Unfortunately the only way I see a 2nd referendum happening is if May crumbles and calls it herself. Corbyn won't call a referendum, although if there were a general election before April and he won that would potentially be good cause for getting an extension in the A50 timings from the EU and then someone else might call one during that extension period after Corbyn realises he doesn't want the job after all.


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    #5646
    Infini
    Registered Users Posts: 4,573 ✭✭✭Infini


    SimonTemplar wrote: »
    If the proposal is rejected by the HoC, do you think May will go. I can't see her position being viable in that situation.

    If so, would a second ref become more likely or less likely?

    It all depends. Sure she could go but who wants to become the PM on whos watch the country disintegrates over the issue. The only way out where this could end as damage limitation if the WA isnt agreed is if parliment decides to take control and cancel the whole Brexit excercise before they crash out. Theres more than enough support if the option came up but they'd need to basically come out and hammer the bullshytters hard by constantly hitting them over the lies the dodgy money connections and the criminal charges on the leave side.

    Cancelling Brexit might be divisive but its far less the cost of a messy and disorderly crashout in March which could bring down the UK altogether.


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    #5647
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,748 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Infini wrote: »
    It all depends. Sure she could go but who wants to become the PM on whos watch the country disintegrates over the issue. The only way out where this could end as damage limitation if the WA isnt agreed is if parliment decides to take control and cancel the whole Brexit excercise before they crash out. Theres more than enough support if the option came up but they'd need to basically come out and hammer the bullshytters hard by constantly hitting them over the lies the dodgy money connections and the criminal charges on the leave side.

    Cancelling Brexit might be divisive but its far less the cost of a messy and disorderly crashout in March which could bring down the UK altogether.

    I don't think they could get away with unilaterally cancelling Brexit without having a 2nd Referendum, it would be thwarting the will of the people, and would probably be even more divisive than the current situation.

    There's only 2 options as I see it, and even a General Election will lead to one of them:
    • 2nd Referendum
    • Hard Brexit


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    #5648
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users Posts: 19,192 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    I disagree. A sudden and deep shock to an economy should be avoided. It's always better to untie than cut off.




    What you say is true. Of course it is better to have a smooth and controlled transition. The problem in this case is that the issues appear to be so intractable that I don't think that there is any real sense of confidence that the cliff edge can be avoided. It appears to be a matter of "when" rather than "if".


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    #5649
    serfboard
    Registered Users Posts: 4,679 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Nody wrote: »
    Anyway the 3 blokes series made a relatively short video on the Withdrawal agreement and the general conclusion is there are only two options on the table in practice; no deal crash out or remain in EU because there is bugger all chance the WA gets through Parliament.
    One of the expressions from this video that I liked is where they said that the UK will be "taking back control of our laws" - the answer they gave to that being that if the UK didn't control their own laws, then what have 650 MPs and over 400,000 "unelected bureaucrats" (:rolleyes:) been doing for the past 40 years? :)


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    #5650
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Inquitus wrote: »
    I don't think they could get away with unilaterally cancelling Brexit without having a 2nd Referendum, it would be thwarting the will of the people, and would probably be even more divisive than the current situation.

    There's only 2 options as I see it, and even a General Election will lead to one of them:
    • 2nd Referendum
    • Hard Brexit

    I nearly completely agree. However, it really has to be a referendum as too many politicians are scared to argue against the will of the people trope. It's a nonsense but it's also very powerful and implies treachery and treason to anyone who dares think otherwise.

    A general election is just going to dodge the issue as the usual voters will just vote Tory/Labour regardless.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #5651
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Shelga wrote: »
    David Davis has actually published an article saying “if necessary, we will leave with no deal, and negotiate a deal during the transition period.”

    He is apparently unaware that without a deal, there will be no transition period. This is actually gobsmacking. How can a single person be so utterly, mind-bogglingly stupid. Never mind being the former Brexit secretary! This is getting to be truly terrifying, 1984 type stuff now.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/11/david-davis-there-has-long-been-an-alternative-to-this-discredited-draft-deal-its-the-canada-style-plan-that-tusk-and-barnier-offered-us.html

    He's followed that up by calling for a Westminster vote on the WA this Thursday, even though it doesn't become a finalised, official document until the European summit on Sunday.


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    #5652
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    He's followed that up by calling for a Westminster vote on the WA this Thursday, even though it doesn't become a finalised, official document until the European summit on Sunday.

    And according to Sky news, rumblings from Spain over Gibraltar.


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    #5653
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,202 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The number of known letters to Brady is +2 incl Teresa Villiers, making it 25. Seems more maybe 12, have told Baker but haven't put in the letters.

    I presume as Ciarraioch says, it's nor an official offer until it's passed on Sunday. Whilst Barnier and his team did the negotiations, they do not have the mandate to ratify.
    The night David was on QT at the time of his appointment, I made him out to be an oaf, and that has been proved correct.


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    #5654
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    Water John wrote: »
    The number of known letters to Brady is +2 incl Teresa Villiers, making it 25. Seems more maybe 12, have told Baker but haven't put in the letters.

    I presume as Ciarraioch says, it's nor an official offer until it's passed on Sunday. Whilst Barnier and his team did the negotiations, they do not have the mandate to ratify.
    The night David was on QT at the time of his appointment, I made him out to be an oaf, and that has been proved correct.

    How is it possible that Davis has gotten to the age he is without ...I don't know, forgetting to breathe and dying of asphyxiation?

    How in the name of anything appropriate was he ever put in charge of anything?

    Four and a half months to B-day and he's still regurgitating 2016-level nonsense.


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    #5655
    cryptocurrency
    Registered Users Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    And according to Sky news, rumblings from Spain over Gibraltar.

    They’ve been rumbling for years.


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    #5656
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,029 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    This so far looks like a really crap coup from Baker and JRM as they still look no closer than 48 numbers, if anything they may have hurt there own brand.

    No wonder why someone as treacherous like Gove has resisted sticking the knife in as he knows the numbers are simply not their.

    https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1064572689774493697

    The ERG isn’t a happy family. One member tells me the letter-wavers look like bullies. “This is all going to fizzle out and Moggy and Baker will get singed.” They added that they could back the deal: “If Cameron offered what May is offering, I would have snapped his hand off.”

    Some ERG MPs spoke to their local associations over the weekend and were encouraged to get behind the PM. An MP who has attended ERG meetings for 12 months said Rees Mogg, Baker are “greedy” and that May would “easily” win a no confidence vote. This hasn’t gone well for JRM, etc.
    A senior Conservative MP tells me the ERG has really misread the mood. “Some MPs went back to their associations expecting them to be clamouring to get rid of the PM but what they got instead was people saying ‘what the f**k do you think you’re doing?’”


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    #5657
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    cryptocurrency wrote: »
    They’ve been rumbling for years.

    But much louder since they read the WA document, talk already of adding an annex to the agreement.

    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=i&source=undefined&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwi45v7Wg-HeAhXC-aQKHX2dDDYQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Felpais.com%2Felpais%2F2018%2F11%2F19%2Finenglish%2F1542632114_326650.html&psig=AOvVaw2wxvNdxfj0ttFCMGDXm1px&ust=1542736561637471


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    #5658
    cryptocurrency
    Registered Users Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    Inquitus wrote: »
    I don't think they could get away with unilaterally cancelling Brexit without having a 2nd Referendum, it would be thwarting the will of the people, and would probably be even more divisive than the current situation.

    There's only 2 options as I see it, and even a General Election will lead to one of them:
    • 2nd Referendum
    • Hard Brexit
    A 2nd referendum will make a mockery of democracy and solve nothing. There has been a vote in 2015 to have the referendum on the Tory manifesto. The referendum result and then other election where the Tories remained the biggest party. The only parties that were against Brexit done terrible. SNP has a bad night as did the Lib Dems. There is no justification at all for a 2nd referendum, especially since the never even implemented the results of the others. The British will never trust democracy again.


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    #5659
    cryptocurrency
    Registered Users Posts: 1,611 ✭✭✭cryptocurrency


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    But much louder since they read the WA document, talk already of adding an annex to the agreement.

    https://www.google.ie/url?sa=i&source=undefined&cd=&ved=0ahUKEwi45v7Wg-HeAhXC-aQKHX2dDDYQzPwBCAM&url=https%3A%2F%2Felpais.com%2Felpais%2F2018%2F11%2F19%2Finenglish%2F1542632114_326650.html&psig=AOvVaw2wxvNdxfj0ttFCMGDXm1px&ust=1542736561637471

    Do you think the UK cares what Spain think. Gib is strategically important to the UK and the Spanish need to wind their necks in. Aren’t the busy locking up Catalans for want to separate from them while being supported by the EU.


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    #5660
    theguzman
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    I nearly completely agree. However, it really has to be a referendum as too many politicians are scared to argue against the will of the people trope. It's a nonsense but it's also very powerful and implies treachery and treason to anyone who dares think otherwise.

    A general election is just going to dodge the issue as the usual voters will just vote Tory/Labour regardless.


    Basically there should be another referendum until the democratic will of the people is overwritten. That is not democracy that is a diktat from a Dictatorship.


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    #5661
    blanch152
    Registered Users Posts: 27,347 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    theguzman wrote: »
    Basically there should be another referendum until the democratic will of the people is overwritten. That is not democracy that is a diktat from a Dictatorship.

    Were you against the recent abortion referendum which overturned the three previous ones?


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    #5662
    joe40
    Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    cryptocurrency wrote: »
    Inquitus wrote: »
    I don't think they could get away with unilaterally cancelling Brexit without having a 2nd Referendum, it would be thwarting the will of the people, and would probably be even more divisive than the current situation.

    There's only 2 options as I see it, and even a General Election will lead to one of them:
    • 2nd Referendum
    • Hard Brexit
    A 2nd referendum will make a mockery of democracy and solve nothing. There has been a vote in 2015 to have the referendum on the Tory manifesto. The referendum result and then other election where the Tories remained the biggest party. The only parties that were against Brexit done terrible. SNP has a bad night as did the Lib Dems. There is no justification at all for a 2nd referendum, especially since the never even implemented the results of the others. The British will never trust democracy again.
    The British should not be trusted with democracy.
    I'm been tongue in cheek, but until now there was a lot of lies peddled. Even including may downplaying the effects of a no deal in blatant posturing. She said "no deal is better than a bad deal" the British public were never told how disastrous no deal would be. Realisation starting to hit home now so I think another vote is warranted. GE no good since apart from lib dems others want Brexit. So the country would be no further forward post election.


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    #5663
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    theguzman wrote: »
    Basically there should be another referendum until the democratic will of the people is overwritten. That is not democracy that is a diktat from a Dictatorship.

    If it were the will of the people, Leave would win a referendum based on facts. The fact that there is so much hostility towards a people's vote which, incidentally was mooted by both Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg indicates that these shadowy elites and oligarchs know full well that they were damned lucky to get over the line in 2016.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #5664
    theguzman
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Were you against the recent abortion referendum which overturned the three previous ones?


    Totally different situations with 16 years between referenda. The previous referenda sought to further tighten the restrictions on Abortion which was rejected in 2002, wheras this year the trend towards liberalisation continued. So actually the will of the people continued and strengthened from 2002 which contradicts your entire point.


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    #5665
    peter kern
    Registered Users Posts: 3,359 ✭✭✭peter kern


    theguzman wrote: »
    Basically there should be another referendum until the democratic will of the people is overwritten. That is not democracy that is a diktat from a Dictatorship.




    the problem is if a brexit secretary had no notion how important the dover callais connection is ...how many ordinary people could have made an informed decison what brexit would mean in 2015 .
    If they had another referendum now they could make a judgement based more on facts.
    and it should be

    hard brexit
    current deal

    no brexit they should vote for


    i think the last refrendun was more a muppet show than a referendum

    ( by both remainers and leavers, with frarage likely the worst but it was a pathetic time how facts ( which nobody had bothered to actually find before they could vote ) were presented.





    what i still cant understand why where brits that live aborad not allowed to vote but neither europeans that lived in the uk ?
    its should have been all british passport holder to decide as those 1 million abraod are just as affected by that decison.


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    #5666
    theguzman
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    If it were the will of the people, Leave would win a referendum based on facts. The fact that there is so much hostility towards a people's vote which, incidentally was mooted by both Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg indicates that these shadowy elites and oligarchs know full well that they were damned lucky to get over the line in 2016.


    There is facts which the leave voters reject as lies and try to brand anyone who points out the obvious as a bigot, racist or fool. Such hostility drove people to do the opposite of what they are being spoonfed by the BBC and Guardian etc.


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    #5667
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    theguzman wrote: »
    There is facts which the leave voters reject as lies and try to brand anyone who points out the obvious as a bigot, racist or fool. Such hostility drove people to do the opposite of what they are being spoonfed by the BBC and Guardian etc.

    Can you substantiate any of this? What, specifically is this based on?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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    #5668
    fash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭fash


    The original brexit referendum specifically failed to specify any type of brexit- deliberately so that brexiters of all different types would project their own hopes onto it. Now that a single concrete brexit is proposed, so the exact type of brexit is known, how is it not a good idea to bring that to the people. In fact, it should have been done this way originally - with remain or a specific exit strategy.


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    #5669
    badtoro
    Closed Accounts Posts: 482 ✭✭badtoro


    cryptocurrency wrote: »
    Inquitus wrote: »
    I don't think they could get away with unilaterally cancelling Brexit without having a 2nd Referendum, it would be thwarting the will of the people, and would probably be even more divisive than the current situation.

    There's only 2 options as I see it, and even a General Election will lead to one of them:
    • 2nd Referendum
    • Hard Brexit
    A 2nd referendum will make a mockery of democracy and solve nothing. There has been a vote in 2015 to have the referendum on the Tory manifesto. The referendum result and then other election where the Tories remained the biggest party. The only parties that were against Brexit done terrible. SNP has a bad night as did the Lib Dems. There is no justification at all for a 2nd referendum, especially since the never even implemented the results of the others. The British will never trust democracy again.

    Would a retrial in a case where lies were told make a mockery of justice?


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    #5670
    theguzman
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    ancapailldorcha wrote: »
    Can you substantiate any of this? What, specifically is this based on?


    The pontificating of Bob Geldof on the Thames alone hardened the resolve of thousands of voters to side with Brexit.


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    #5671
    ancapailldorcha
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 37,827 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    theguzman wrote: »
    The pontificating of Bob Geldof on the Thames alone hardened the resolve of thousands of voters to side with Brexit.

    And the rest of the 17.4 million?

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



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