Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Larbre34

Headshot wrote: »

Im delighted she's saying in power

I would of ****ing love to see the look on Jacob Rees-Mogg tonight

Rub it in his face

I'm guessing quite a collection of news organisations will be pursuing him for just that.

EdgeCase

Party is badly split.
I wouldn't really be reading any kind of amazing stability coming from that

Humour Me

He’s on BBC right now!!

Professor Moriarty

Not many of that 117 will vote for her deal though.

tuxy

Water John wrote: »

117 big enough, margin 83. Over one third, wounded.

Large enough to cause more chaos not large enough for her to even consider stepping down.

For Forks Sake

Larbre34 wrote: »

I'm guessing quite a collection of news organisations will be pursuing him for just that.

He's popped up on BBC1

devnull

Water John wrote: »

117 big enough, margin 83. Over one third.

A massive mandate for Theresa May there*

* based on the definition of a majority of 4% being a clear mandate as based on the ERG saying so about Brexit.

If the ERG come out and say it's not enough, they are a bunch of hypocrites.

Folkstonian

seamus wrote: »

They completely screwed her over. Allowed her to hold an independence referendum, campaigned against her with the Trump card of EU membership, and then turned around and left the EU.

All of Scotland hates the Tories. They have continually treated Scotland as second class citizens and a burden. Sturgeon is merely representing her constituents.

All of Scotland hates the tories - except of course those who voted in 13 Conservative MPs at the last general election.

Shocking result for May in the ballot - one hundred votes against her is catastrophic I think.

I’d expect any other PM to resign. Theresa has a different outlook though, so all bets are off.

Larbre34

Water John wrote: »

117 big enough, margin 83. Over one third, wounded.

Not quite. 63.something. An Irish landslide if you will!

seamus

Water John wrote: »

117 big enough, margin 83. Over one third, wounded.

Wounded, but far from weakened. 63%. That's a strong and decisive victory in anyone's book.

Really only two options left on the table now. Theresa's deal or a General Election.

LuckyLloyd

funkey_monkey wrote: »

So, is this a good result for her?

She won't be going anywhere

tuxy

funkey_monkey wrote: »

So, is this a good result for her?

I think good enough for her to cling on just about. She's an expert at hanging on against the odds.

briany

Well, democracy has spoken. Will the ERG shut up? Will they hell.

Kermit.de.frog

briany wrote: »

Well, democracy has spoken. Will the ERG shut up? Will they hell.

Respect the vote...

murpho999

A result that will keep the Tory in-fighting going on.

Can't see how Brexit will get through.

Mr.Nice Guy

117 against is quite a lot. Was hoping it would be around 100 against at most.

She's not a cooked goose but she's truly a lame duck.

blackcard

Larbre34 wrote: »

Water John wrote: »

117 big enough, margin 83. Over one third, wounded.

Not quite. 63.something. An Irish landslide if you will!

The margin was 83, the percentage was 63%

UsedToWait

devnull wrote: »

What did you see/hear?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/nov/18/the-chilling-undertones-of-andrew-neil-mad-cat-woman-tweet

devnull

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

117 against is quite a lot. Was hoping it would be around 100 against at most.

She's not a cooked goose but she's truly a lame duck.

63% backing her is a clear mandate if you consider that the ERG consider 52% is a clear mandate for Brexit.

EdgeCase

Well, now what we've got past that Tory naval gazing she still has to get this deal through parliament which looks extremely unlikely.

Water John

ERG emboldened. Her miscalculation was the Election. She should swivel to Lb and SNP votes, do a soft Brexit and feck the ERG.

gimli2112

JRM came up with some math that if you discount the MPs on her payroll she lost and it's a terrible result for her.

Akrasia

devnull wrote: »

63% backing her is a clear mandate if you consider that the ERG consider 52% is a clear mandate for Brexit.

Mogg was full of rationalisation just there on the BBC. Some majorities are more legitimate than others it seems.

Beechwoodspark

The Moggster in full spin cycle mode just now on bbc.

Mr.Nice Guy

The numbers against are way up on what was expected.

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1072959644925132809

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1072961055419236361

LuckyLloyd

gimli2112 wrote: »

JRM came up with some math that if you discount the MPs on her payroll she lost and it's a terrible result for her.

His crew love spinning math. :rolleyes: He's had his shot and lost, that's the bottom line. Though he'll be well suited with this result as he can stand on the sidelines and roar and shout irrelevancies about how she should go to the Queen, his favourite.

Folkstonian

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, now what we've got past that Tory naval gazing she still has to get this deal through parliament which looks extremely unlikely.

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

Piece of cake for Theresa, right?

devnull

gimli2112 wrote: »

JRM came up with some math that if you discount the MPs on her payroll she lost and it's a terrible result for her.

Yet spent the whole of the last year saying that you cannot exclude votes from the Brexit vote because everybodies vote counts and that would be against democracy.

It's laughable, typical little rich boy, changes the rules when he loses because he is so used to getting his own way yet doesn't like it when people do the same.

He's the very worst of selfish, arrogant politicians.

seamus

EdgeCase wrote: »

Well, now what we've got past that Tory naval gazing she still has to get this deal through parliament which looks extremely unlikely.

She claimed she has a legal solution for the backstop.

This should be fun, because she doesn't. And now she's going to prove it, turn the Tories into an even bigger laughing stock and there's nothing they can do about it.

Water John

What does she do coming up to 21st Jan? Corbyn is right to wait, he wouldn't win it.
HoC will force a Ext of Art50 and 2nd Ref.

Professor Moriarty

gimli2112 wrote: »

JRM came up with some math that if you discount the MPs on her payroll she lost and it's a terrible result for her.

Nasty little insinuation about fellow Tories. Par for the course for Jacob.

An Ciarraioch

That effectively kills off the Withdrawal Agreement, presumably.

Enzokk

Seems that opinion is split on whether there is good news for her or not. Labour supporters are calling it as a blow while her supporters are ecstatic with the result.

It really doesn't matter as her deal is still not getting through parliament so she may have a majority of support in her party but if she cannot get it through the HoC then it really doesn't matter.

thecretinhop

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

Professor Moriarty

thecretinhop wrote: »

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

Yes, that's his cunning plan.

dr.fuzzenstein

devnull wrote: »

63% backing her is a clear mandate if you consider that the ERG consider 52% is a clear mandate for Brexit.

Now the Tories have to wait 12 months for another heave.
Though according to Brexiteers you cannot ever have another vote on the same subject ever again, because that would be undemocratic.
Unless of course it is something completely, entirely different if it is about something they want.

Strazdas

Folkstonian wrote: »

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

Piece of cake for Theresa, right?

Tony Connelly saying 117 is bad news for the deal : he says those same MPs will turn all their attention to voting it down now.

awec

It's really hard to see how we avoid a vote of some description from this point, either an election or a people's vote.

listermint

thecretinhop wrote: »

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

As would 117 Tories it seems.


Follow the money. There's chaos investments made there...

Dyr

thecretinhop wrote: »

corbyn will have the uk as a third world state if he gets in.

He'd wanna crack on so, cos the Tories are beating him to it

Capt'n Midnight

Folkstonian wrote: »

All of Scotland hates the tories - except of course those who voted in 13 Conservative MPs at the last general election.

Which is 12 more than the previous election.

And probably 12 more than the next unless they can deliver on fishing rights and other Brexit related stuff. And we aren't even talking Hard Brexit.

I’d expect any other PM to resign. Theresa has a different outlook though, so all bets are off.

The lady's not for turning.

seamus

Folkstonian wrote: »

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

That's not how party politics work. You toe the party line or you leave. She only needs to find someone to replace the DUP.
As much as the SNP hate them, Sturgeon might be the one to turn to, in exchange for assurances about Scottish interests.

UsedToWait

awec wrote: »

It's really hard to see how we avoid a vote of some description from this point, either an election or a people's vote.

I think it's really hard to see anything but a complete breakdown / eventual reorganisation of the UK polity at this stage.

Tell me how

Interesting point made on Sky that in the leadership campaign which she won two years ago, she only got 199 votes in the second ballot. She got one more.

Of course, she was going against 2 people.

Enzokk

Folkstonian wrote: »

Just the small matter of a deficit of 117 of her own party, plus 10 DUP votes, to claw back from elsewhere in the house.

Piece of cake for Theresa, right?

Not just the 117, you would have people who voted for her and who will still vote against the deal as they don't want a Brexiter coming in but cannot support the deal.

Let's just remember,

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1072962227127418909

James O'Brien, "Even tonight, nothing substantive has changed since the ‘red lines’ met the Good Friday Agreement, and the weaponisation of free movement met the indivisibilty of the four freedoms. Literally nothing.
As you were."

Also if there was a no confidence motion in the house, how will those 117 that voted against her be able to argue that she is not good enough for the Conservative Party but she is good enough to be PM?

devnull

devnull wrote: »

63% backing her is a clear mandate if you consider that the ERG consider 52% is a clear mandate for Brexit.

Its a clear mandate within the Tory party only. As to the overall situation, nothing has really moved on. Unintentionally we now know more than we did a few minutes ago as to how many Tories would have voted against TM’s deal had it gone before the HoC, ie, it would have been crushed when combined with the opposition of Labour, the SNP, DUP etc. With the EU declaring that the WA can’t be changed, I’m not sure what the British government can do now to satisfy their own domestic audience.

Royale with Cheese

The presenter on BBC to Rees Mogg just before he signed off - You must have a busy night of plotting ahead of you

end of the road

i don't particularly like may or what she stands for but i'm glad she has survived the vote. the deal she got was the best that was going to be got, and while it pleases no-body, perhapse it might ultimately cause the downfall of brexit (maybe that is her plan but perhapse i'm giving her a bit to much credit)
my view is that she is the only one who can lead the conservatives that is being realistic about what kind of brexit can actually be delivered. i dread to think what would have happened had she not survived, mog or johnson as her replacement would have been horrific as they have delusians of grandure in my view and i fear any new "deal" they would have got would be a lot worse.
ultimately the only really good deal is remain.

devnull

Can't believe Richard Drax on Sky News now.

He's stating that there was a clear mandate for leave and that people didn't want to be half in and half out and wanted to be out and the people clearly thought this but there shouldn't be a second vote because the people have spoken.

He then goes on without taking much of a brath saying that despite the fact May has won the vote she doesn't have a big enough mandate and too many people voted against confidence in her so with such a small majority she should not continue and she should resign.

What a bunch of hypocrites - notice how they change their definition of mandate and what a small majority is depending on what vote they are talking about, so many contradictions and different rules for different things, they are really a disgrace.

Infini

awec wrote: »

It's really hard to see how we avoid a vote of some description from this point, either an election or a people's vote.

2nf referendum would be a possibility expecially if combined with an A50 withdrawal. 2nd ref would also have to be between the WA and Remain. No Deal will have to be removed as a factor. A referendum isnt gonna solve anything UNLESS of course Labour
decides to campaign on the remain platform and with Corbyn right now thats not a certainty unlrss he can be armtwisted into it in return for the PMs job.