Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

prawnsambo · 19-11-2018 10:46am

RobMc59 wrote: »

You have your own opinion but if all the stories of no fly exclusion zones,over flight permits withdrawn etc what's going to happen ?-It's in Britains interest to include Ireland in its defence strategy but is it really waffle to say if that's withdrawn the EU would expect Ireland to step up or the alternative,an EU military presence in Ireland.

None of those things are permanent though. They're just a consequence of a hard brexit or a withdrawal agreement that doesn't include those agreements. But it would be unlikely that a WA would not include the more strategic ones as a minimum. So really only applicable in a no-deal situation. And the absence would be only until a new specific agreement on those particular areas was completed.

Shelga · 19-11-2018 10:51am

Just read the Spectator article with the 40 points. This really is an awful deal for the UK.

What else did they expect?

Nody · 19-11-2018 10:59am

Shelga wrote: »

Just read the Spectator article with the 40 points. This really is an awful deal for the UK.

What else did they expect?

350 million a week to NHS, EU to give them full access to the single market without any checks or controls, writing new FTA with every country in the world that allow free UK export for nothing in return, the possibility to create a second class of citizens in their country again that know their place, kicking out johnny foreigner because they are all scum and of course to take back control of their borders and law again.

Zubeneschamali · 19-11-2018 11:07am

Shelga wrote: »

What else did they expect?

I think it is pretty clear that the voters expected Brexit to lose the referendum, they expected to be able to give two fingers to Cameron and Westminster without anything actually changing as a result.

josip · 19-11-2018 11:12am

Bambi wrote: »

Once we unite with the Six, a large presence of dutch peacekeeping troops would be just the ticket

Is this a reference to Srebrenica?
Or a desire to see William Of Orange's descendants back again?

Dyr · 19-11-2018 11:38am

josip wrote: »

Is this a reference to Srebrenica?
Or a desire to see William Of Orange's descendants back again?

Old times sake. Serious point though, any transition to an All Ireland arrangement is going to require us to beef up our defence forces and some presence from other EU states

RobMc59 · 19-11-2018 11:47am

The possibility of an extension to the transition period could be a godsend as it could signal the indefinite postponement of Brexit-I know a lot of ordinary people are asking why are we being railroaded into something which is turning out not to be as promised and only wanted by a gang of privileged toffs and xenophobes.

Nody · 19-11-2018 11:47am

Bambi wrote: »

Old times sake. Serious point though, any transition to an All Ireland arrangement is going to require us to beef up our defence forces and some presence from other EU states

I'm sure Sweden, Norway and Denmark will happy send troops over again; it will be the 1k year reunion party :P

Anyway the 3 blokes series made a relatively short video on the Withdrawal agreement and the general conclusion is there are only two options on the table in practice; no deal crash out or remain in EU because there is bugger all chance the WA gets through Parliament.

prawnsambo · 19-11-2018 12:04pm

Shelga wrote: »

Just read the Spectator article with the 40 points. This really is an awful deal for the UK.

What else did they expect?

That my be an accurate assessment, but anything in the Spectator needs full verification with other sources before I'd be happy to endorse it.

mrbrianj · 19-11-2018 12:12pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

The possibility of an extension to the transition period could be a godsend as it could signal the indefinite postponement of Brexit-I know a lot of ordinary people are asking why are we being railroaded into something which is turning out not to be as promised and only wanted by a gang of privileged toffs and xenophobes.

As long as there is some certainty to what is happening. Business are struggling with this - do they invest in new infrastructure in either future market, only to find that their investment was unnecessary and they cant carry the loss. Or sit on their hands and hope that after negotiations they still have access to all the markets?
At the moment business cant make sound investments and share prices are all over the place, the quicker the "deal" is done and closed out the better.

It is one of the biggest problems with Brexit. A long / indefinite transition will just leave business in limbo, sitting on the fence.

They said it would be the easiest trade deal ever or a no deal crash out - both of which was looney stuff. The closer the links the harder to untie. The real business leaders will come into play now, (not probrexit guys with Russian backing or the ones with business models that require the standards dropped to survive) - just like the DUP are finding out now with the Farmers Union etc

Donald Trump · 19-11-2018 12:18pm

mrbrianj wrote: »

As long as there is some certainty to what is happening. Business are struggling with this - do they invest in new infrastructure in either future market, only to find that their investment was unnecessary and they cant carry the loss. Or sit on their hands and hope that after negotiations they still have access to all the markets?
At the moment business cant make sound investments and share prices are all over the place, the quicker the "deal" is done and closed out the better.

It is one of the biggest problems with Brexit. A long / indefinite transition will just leave business in limbo, sitting on the fence.

They said it would be the easiest trade deal ever or a no deal crash out - both of which was looney stuff. The closer the links the harder to untie. The real business leaders will come into play now, (not probrexit guys with Russian backing or the ones with business models that require the standards dropped to survive) - just like the DUP are finding out now with the Farmers Union etc

A fast conclusion is better than any long drawn out period of uncertainty.

Even if it is hard Brexit, once you know, you can act accordingly and optimally given that situation. Let the dust settle, pick up the pieces and proceed as best you can. While everything is up in the air and stagnating, business will just suffer a long slow and painful death

MrMusician18 · 19-11-2018 12:25pm

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think it is pretty clear that the voters expected Brexit to lose the referendum, they expected to be able to give two fingers to Cameron and Westminster without anything actually changing as a result.

If that was the case you'd have expected support for Brexit to collapse in the wake of the referendum. This hasn't happened, it's only shrunk slightly.

This suggests to me that it wasn't a protest vote against Cameron, but something deeper.

It might be hard for people of a pro European persuasion to accept, but the 52% was a rejection of Europe.

flatty · 19-11-2018 12:58pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If that was the case you'd have expected support for Brexit to collapse in the wake of the referendum. This hasn't happened, it's only shrunk slightly.

This suggests to me that it wasn't a protest vote against Cameron, but something deeper.

It might be hard for people of a pro European persuasion to accept, but the 52% was a rejection of Europe.

Some of it was, some probably wasn't, but we will never know.
Teresa May threatening the erg with another referendum is the most utterly gobsmacking thing in this gobsmacking mess. You have the democratically elected leader of a country which almost invented modern parliamentary democracy, apparently being aware that the democratic will of the people may well now be for remain, yet she feels secure enough in this, to use this as a threat if she doesn't get her way.
It is GUBU.

Professor Moriarty · 19-11-2018 1:03pm

Donald Trump wrote: »

A fast conclusion is better than any long drawn out period of uncertainty.

Even if it is hard Brexit, once you know, you can act accordingly and optimally given that situation. Let the dust settle, pick up the pieces and proceed as best you can. While everything is up in the air and stagnating, business will just suffer a long slow and painful death

I disagree. A sudden and deep shock to an economy should be avoided. It's always better to untie than cut off.

Infini · 19-11-2018 1:05pm

MrMusician18 wrote: »

If that was the case you'd have expected support for Brexit to collapse in the wake of the referendum. This hasn't happened, it's only shrunk slightly.

This suggests to me that it wasn't a protest vote against Cameron, but something deeper.

It might be hard for people of a pro European persuasion to accept, but the 52% was a rejection of Europe.

While 52% voted to leave that was only 17mil or so people out of a population of 64million so that alone is not a resounding rejection of Europe to begin with. A fair bit of the leave vote couldve been protest votes as well because leave wasnt expected to actually win, its why the Bullsh¡teers have been so caught out they had nk actual plan for winning hence how were here at this point 2 years later.

You also have to remember the sheer amount of BS in the face of hard facts, the ignorance and stupidity of some, the fact that plenty in England are too prideful to admit this is wrong and go full steam ahead rather than change course and then of course the sheer lack of quality politicians and decent leaders, the fact that the UK is a rather defective democratic system with serious shortcomings like the FPTP system and the fact that both major parties are divided by idiots and ideologues atm and the only others who have some cop on are too weak to be able to do something about it right now. All this before even adding in the Russian Troll Army factor because they certainly have the motivation for it.

Brexit is the perfect sh¡tstorm of Broken party politics, toxic and deceptive media, idiocy and ideology before leadership and common sense and petty pride. Its will cost everyone something but it could cost the UK its existence in the long run because the economic and political contradictions could ultimately cause it to disintegrate.

Water John · 19-11-2018 1:05pm

For us, whether UK chooses the TM Deal or Remain doesn't matter a whole lot to us. It does to UK citizens, but it's their choice.

RandomName2 · 19-11-2018 1:07pm

McGiver wrote: »

The EU and all its precursors have always have been about more integration and more Europe. Only the ones who are misinformed or uninformed think otherwise. The only question is how and how quickly the integration happens not if it happens. The "if" is not a question at all.

But that's not necessarily what people believed they were signing up to when they voted on joining.

McGiver wrote: »

Schuman declaration of 1950 (de facto establishing the ECSC):

By the way, this also addresses your notion that the EU was not instrumental in the maintenance of the longest period of peace in European history.

Just because a politician said something doesn't make it so, or perhaps the Munich Agreement guaranteed peace in our time.

badtoro · 19-11-2018 1:15pm

mrbrianj wrote: »

just like the DUP are finding out now with the Farmers Union etc

Just a note of caution, I'm not saying you're wrong here either, but I'd wonder exactly how representative the UFU is. How many farmers do they represent out of the total, and then within that how reflective is their stance compared to their memberships view. Farm politics is quite the minefield.

EdgeCase · 19-11-2018 1:15pm

What is not being understood or communicated in the UK is that there are practical consequences to Brexit. Whether they agree with the EU or not, their economy is intricately connected on all sorts of levels to European systems and businesses have evolved over the last 45 years to make use of those systems and many people have built their lives around the ability use the freedom of movement that the EU provided.

The UK is always free to leave the EU. It's just that nobody can magic away the consequences of uprooting and disrupting all of those systems and agreements. There are serious practical issues and they were ignored / brushed aside and people made a decision based largely on pure dogma and the choices were presented without any of the practical implications being discussed.

The leadership in the UK is also so weak that it continues to fail to present the realities of the situation - that Brexit will cost the UK economically and in terms of access to all sorts of EU systems, rights and services that people and businesses have take for granted.

If the population of the UK wants to take a choice to damage pull the plug and swallow the consequences and feel it's worth it for the sake of this Brexit ideal, then put it to them properly and don't spin and lie. They deserve to make a real choice with all the facts laid out.

Otherwise they may be caught out by the 'dark forces' of being utterly unprepared for reality and that's when things will inevitably turn very nasty.

At present it's almost like trying to engage with a debate with a cult member. They do not want to listen to anything other than how big and beautiful Brexit will be an there's absolutely no thought for how the hell they're going to implement any of this.

I've been checking into this thread for months / years at this stage and it's the same stupid nonsense emanating from the Tories and the Brexiteers and a large chunk of the UK press over and over and over and it's a story of lies, manipulation and wilful ignorance. You can't negotiate or discuss something with someone who's unable / unwilling to listen.

Shelga · 19-11-2018 1:21pm

People didn’t care about the details of how to implement all of this when they voted Leave.

They assumed politicians would be able to work it all out. They trusted them. They were very wrong.

EdgeCase · 19-11-2018 1:30pm

There's an element of it that reminds me of the years that lead up the financial crisis in Ireland. I remember back in 2005, 2006 when people were giving out to me when I pointed out any of the big holes in the economic model we had at the time and others were trying to bully me into buying a house. I was constantly being told that everything was fine and I was just being ridiculous and I should hurry up and get a massive mortgage before it's too late to get on the ladder.

I'm finding a similar attitude in the UK. You have hardcore Brexiteers who will always be there and you've got people who are trying to hammer home the reasons to Remain on the other side, but in the middle you've got the vast majority of the UK population and most of them seem to be asleep at the wheel.

I don't know how many times I've heard the line "Oh we should just get on with it. I am fed up hearing about Brexit". They have no real opinion on it and are just adopting the "oh how bad could it possibly be?" "It's all a big fuss about nothing" type line.

Much like the way we all became experts in international finance in 2008 as our economy collapsed around our ears, I suspect the UK's population will be leading experts in European affairs and multilateral trade systems in 2019 as theirs does exactly the same.

I still think we are headed for a scenario where the politicians fail to make any decisions and Brexit happens by default and leads to a worst case scenario outcome.

devnull · 19-11-2018 1:38pm

EdgeCase wrote: »

What is not being understood or communicated in the UK is that there are practical consequences to Brexit. Whether they agree with the EU or not, their economy is intricately connected on all sorts of levels to European systems and businesses have evolved over the last 45 years to make use of those systems and many people have built their lives around the ability use the freedom of movement that the EU provided.

The UK is always free to leave the EU. It's just that nobody can magic away the consequences of uprooting and disrupting all of those systems and agreements.

The thing is, in most Brexiteers eyes, these things that we all know will be consequences, are not consequences at all, rather they are being termed as punishments being handed down by the EU for the UK leaving and not getting what people think the EU owe them.

An Ciarraioch · 19-11-2018 1:40pm

It appears an EU Commission/UK document details the extent of North-South cooperation underpinned by EU law - it couldn't be published before now because it was important to the backstop negotiations, but there are growing calls for the document to be made public:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1119/1011801-brexit-northern-ireland/

robinph · 19-11-2018 1:42pm

Shelga wrote: »

People didn’t care about the details of how to implement all of this when they voted Leave.

They assumed politicians would be able to work it all out. They trusted them. They were very wrong.

They didn't trust the politicians, so they demanded a vote because the population thought they knew better, then on getting a result that they were not expecting demanded the untrustworthy politicians do something about it and fix it all, but nobody ever asked what it was that was broken or what needed fixing or what the population wanted doing about it. So then the politicians that nobody trusted came back with an answer that nobody wanted and everyone said that's not what we voted for, and on anyone asking what it might have been that anyone voted for the population claims to not know that they were asked a question in the first place and why didn't the politicians just sort it out themselves seeing as it's there job.

EdgeCase · 19-11-2018 1:42pm

I'd suspect that the end result of that will be serious political consequences in the UK when the Tories can't explain why they're allowed the economy to tank and living standards to slip.

There's a core group of Brexiteers, but most people are just along for the ride and are pretty fickle and unaware. All they'll see is costs rising or practical issues that hey were lied to about and that's when the wheels come off.

charlie14 · 19-11-2018 1:47pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

It appears an EU Commission/UK document details the extent of North-South cooperation underpinned by EU law - it couldn't be published before now because it was important to the backstop negotiations, but there are growing calls for the document to be made public:

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/1119/1011801-brexit-northern-ireland/

Emily O Reilly only doing her job, but as the UK government primarily have been keeping this document under wraps, somehow I do not see publication will help May in getting this agreement through HoC.

Shelga · 19-11-2018 1:50pm

David Davis has actually published an article saying “if necessary, we will leave with no deal, and negotiate a deal during the transition period.”

He is apparently unaware that without a deal, there will be no transition period. This is actually gobsmacking. How can a single person be so utterly, mind-bogglingly stupid. Never mind being the former Brexit secretary! This is getting to be truly terrifying, 1984 type stuff now.

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/11/david-davis-there-has-long-been-an-alternative-to-this-discredited-draft-deal-its-the-canada-style-plan-that-tusk-and-barnier-offered-us.html

RobMc59 · 19-11-2018 2:11pm

robinph wrote: »

They didn't trust the politicians, so they demanded a vote because the population thought they knew better, then on getting a result that they were not expecting demanded the untrustworthy politicians do something about it and fix it all, but nobody ever asked what it was that was broken or what needed fixing or what the population wanted doing about it. So then the politicians that nobody trusted came back with an answer that nobody wanted and everyone said that's not what we voted for, and on anyone asking what it might have been that anyone voted for the population claims to not know that they were asked a question in the first place and why didn't the politicians just sort it out themselves seeing as it's there job.

The benefit of hindsight is indeed a wonderful thing-all I know is that leading up to the brexit referendum it was generally looked upon as a tool to shut the moaners up-the result was a genuine shock and as people have pointed out on this forum,the clowns who caused it thought the EU would allow the UK to leave on their terms,there was no plan b in the event they declined the "wonderful"offer by the UK.
What disappoints me the most though,is that instead of fixing it the politicians(tory and labour)are using it for their own ends and not what is best for the country.

Infini · 19-11-2018 2:13pm

Shelga wrote: »

David Davis has actually published an article saying “if necessary, we will leave with no deal, and negotiate a deal during the transition period.”

He is apparently unaware that without a deal, there will be no transition period. This is actually gobsmacking. How can a single person be so utterly, mind-bogglingly stupid. Never mind being the former Brexit secretary! This is getting to be truly terrifying, 1984 type stuff now.

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/11/david-davis-there-has-long-been-an-alternative-to-this-discredited-draft-deal-its-the-canada-style-plan-that-tusk-and-barnier-offered-us.html

It's not so much terrifying it's just ridiculous at the sheer level of idiocy and how stupid and ignorant these people have gotten. They're no better than the populist idiots in other countries who end up pushing this right until they're essentially forced to buckle under the sheer weight of reality.

I would honestly think though that May might be smart enough to call this whole thing off if no one can agree at least if her words the other day were anything to go by. I seriously doubt she wants to go down as the PM who either ruined Britain or brought about its end. The agreement is essentially the only one they'll get, they can either accept it OR if they try for a No Deal which everyone knows is not gonna work and a total disaster she basically cancels Brexit citing no ability for anyone to agree to an orderly withdrawal.

The conservative party is a total mess but she knows even if their is a leadership challenge by her opponents the possibility of her Losing one is remote, hell they're struggling just to MOUNT one right now. The likelyhood of the WA passing is very low, the likelyhood of a No Deal Brexit is very high and the lack of time might work against another vote. The ONLY other option bar No Deal under this is basically to outright cancel Brexit, that WOULD easily pass the Bullshíteers are significantly outnumbered by the Remainer MP and if this were an option it would pass. It would likely be a GE shortly afterwards but May would at least not be the one to go down as the one who ended Britain and the only reason I can see why's she's still here after all the drama and bull has to be a sense of duty rather than ideology,

Seth Brundle · 19-11-2018 2:57pm

Shelga wrote: »

David Davis has actually published an article saying “if necessary, we will leave with no deal, and negotiate a deal during the transition period.”

He is apparently unaware that without a deal, there will be no transition period. This is actually gobsmacking. How can a single person be so utterly, mind-bogglingly stupid. Never mind being the former Brexit secretary! This is getting to be truly terrifying, 1984 type stuff now.

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2018/11/david-davis-there-has-long-been-an-alternative-to-this-discredited-draft-deal-its-the-canada-style-plan-that-tusk-and-barnier-offered-us.html

In that article, he also says:

The crucial point is there is still time to save Brexit, still time to take control and still time to offer the British people a brighter future. This is the moment of truth. We can reject the proposed agreement and move on. We still have time because the key date in the calendar is 21st January, 2019. Only then does the Government need to make a statement within five days on what the United Kingdom plans to do, according to the European Union (Withdrawal) Act of 2018.

So he's considering doing nothing until 5 days to go? Not much time left in case he doesn't get his unicorns from the EU!

So, we can use the time until then productively. We know from past experience that the EU always leaves agreement to the final moment possible at the eleventh hour. Everybody in the UK wants the hope of a better deal – and trust me, we can do this. I spent countless hours negotiating with EU counterparts, and I know the great prize of a Canada-style free trade agreement is still possible. Indeed, it is very much still on. Both Michel Barnier and Donald Tusk have confirmed this.

Also, "countless hours"? Given it was counted at four hours this year for one of the most important changes in UK history, I'm surprised he can't count other negotiating time!

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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