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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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    #4352
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,561 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    haha, brilliant.

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062807386375757829



    As for the deal - annex starts with this!
    Common regulatory area Article 3

    Establishment of a common regulatory area

    A common regulatory area comprising the Union and the United Kingdom in respect of Northern Ireland is hereby established.

    Wouldn't that be regarded as annexation in some parts of the world?


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    #4353
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,734 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Water John wrote: »
    I said 'early', because this is early in the end game. Fully aware of the last 2 years. But this play now will be day by day. You may have a few Cabinet resignations tomorrow. You may have a trigger on a challenge to TM from the ERG. They have even admitted that they won't manage to topple her, but want to put pressure on her.

    What options does she have if the commons rejects this, there is still a good chance she survives a no confidence vote, and there is no immediate General Election. There is no going back to re-negotiate at this juncture. She has ruled out another referendum which would perhaps be a way to move things forwards, coupled with an A50 extension to facilitate. Things start to look very bleak at that point.


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    #4354
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,162 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Inquitus wrote: »
    What options does she have if the commons rejects this, there is still a good chance she survives a no confidence vote, and there is no immediate General Election. There is no going back to re-negotiate at this juncture. She has ruled out another referendum which would perhaps be a way to move things forwards, coupled with an A50 extension to facilitate. Things start to look very bleak at that point.

    In fairness, she has ruled out a lot of things she is now willing to do.


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    #4355
    Folkstonian
    Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭Folkstonian


    I think May is Toast. No chance this gets through Parliament.

    She’s lost the DUP and probably 60 or 70 of her own MPs at a minimum.

    No chance she will get the support of those sorts of numbers from the other side of the house.

    Only two options foreseeable now, second referendum or no deal and I do fear that no deal is the far more likely of the two.


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    #4356
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    I can't see this getting through the House of Commons to be perfectly honest. It's a worst-of-both-worlds compromise that reflects the ridiculous reality of what they're trying to do.

    The Brexteers sound unhappy about it and the Remainers seem equally unhappy.

    New referendum seems to be about the only solution to this.

    I dont understand how a referendum can fix this situation for the UK? What would the question be? Deal or Hard Brexit? Stay in the EU or deal?

    Would May be expected to carry on if the negotiations are considered a failure?

    Negotiations can't simply be reset now. With May or another leader. It is now the deal.


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    #4357
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,898 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    awec wrote: »
    If there's a GE I think the outcome would be a parliament with pretty much the same make up as today. It would be a waste of time unless Labour campaigned on a no-brexit ticket which is not going to happen.


    With all Labour constituencies in the latest polls showing they favour Remain they would have no options regardless of what Corbyn wants if they wished to win a GE. Plus on their Kier Starmer 6 point test there really isn`t anything other than full membership that will pass them all as far as I can see.


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    #4358
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,764 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    I dont understand how a referendum can fix this situation for the UK? What would the question be? Deal or Hard Brexit? Stay in the EU or deal?

    Would May be expected to carry on if the negotiations are considered a failure?

    Negotiations can't simply be reset now. With May or another leader. It is now the deal.

    Mays deal or Stay.


    I don't see how it's complicated.....

    It's a simple question


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    #4359
    theguzman
    Registered Users Posts: 2,081 ✭✭✭theguzman


    Folkstonian wrote: »
    I think May is Toast. No chance this gets through Parliament.

    She’s lost the DUP and probably 60 or 70 of her own MPs at a minimum.

    No chance she will get the support of those sorts of numbers from the other side of the house.

    Only two options foreseeable now, second referendum or no deal and I do fear that no deal is the far more likely of the two.


    Hopefully, No deal and a Hard Brexit would be the far better option. Bring back the hard border and force this country to leave too, there may be some small short-term economic instability but in the long term Ireland leaving the EU would greatly benefit Irish people.


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    #4360
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,552 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    DUP now away consulting with the hardline Brexiteers.

    https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1062829201999433728

    Wonder what their next move will be tomorrow.


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    #4361
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,166 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    A lot to play for. Next it will be the paper headlines at 10.30 Sky News.
    After the HoC vote turning it down, Parliament could ask for a new Ref or something else, TM would be in no position to refuse.
    That Ref could be on Remain v Crash Brexit.


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    #4362
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,552 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Nicola Sturgeon has commented on her discussion with May:

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1062829567235252225

    Hard to see how May can get the SNP on board. They're hardly going to vote for a deal they see as putting their country at a serious disadvantage.


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    #4363
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,764 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Varadkar should play this very low key until commons state of play is known

    You said that already.


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    #4364
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,552 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    And now Peston saying May could be facing a vote of confidence shortly.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062831927231741953

    She's encircled by opponents.


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    #4365
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    Water John wrote: »
    A lot to play for. Next it will be the paper headlines at 10.30 Sky News.
    After the HoC vote turning it down, Parliament could ask for a new Ref or something else, TM would be in no position to refuse.
    That Ref could be on Remain v Crash Brexit.

    Could May, even if parliament rejects the deal, refuse to give up on it and call a referendum on it, on the basis that it has already been shown in this process that a referendum trumps parliament?

    That would be a referendum between the rejected deal and no deal.

    Such a referendum would be a fitting climax to this whole farce.


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    #4366
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,898 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Inquitus wrote: »
    What options does she have if the commons rejects this, there is still a good chance she survives a no confidence vote, and there is no immediate General Election. There is no going back to re-negotiate at this juncture. She has ruled out another referendum which would perhaps be a way to move things forwards, coupled with an A50 extension to facilitate. Things start to look very bleak at that point.


    If there is a motion of no confidence, especially if it is proposed by some of her own MPs, being impossible for her to survive. Even if it is an opposition motion she will still have a problem with the numbers. I cannot see the DUP backing her after today.


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    #4367
    devnull
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 11,593 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    Water John wrote: »
    A lot to play for. Next it will be the paper headlines at 10.30 Sky News.
    After the HoC vote turning it down, Parliament could ask for a new Ref or something else, TM would be in no position to refuse.
    That Ref could be on Remain v Crash Brexit.

    Front pages already up:
    https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11554453


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    #4368
    bilston
    Registered Users Posts: 17,759 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Is it beyond the realms of possibility that May could get Labour onside...or at least enough Labour MPs


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    #4369
    bilston
    Registered Users Posts: 17,759 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If there is a motion of no confidence, especially if it is proposed by some of her own MPs, being impossible for her to survive. Even if it is an opposition motion she will still have a problem with the numbers. I cannot see the DUP backing her after today.

    The DUP have said their deal is with the Tories rather than May, I don't think they'd support a vote of no confidence in the govt.

    Plus the DUP wouldn't have any input in any Tory leadership challenge.


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    #4370
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,361 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    listermint wrote: »
    You said that already.

    Sorry double post. Deleted the second one


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    #4371
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,898 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Faugheen wrote: »
    He is to be fair, even in the Dail today he gave little away and ministers aren’t being allowed to go into the knotty gritty because Varadkar knows anything he says will just antagonise Brexiteers and the DUP.


    In fairness to all concerned Varadkar apparently phoned around this morning and all agreed that nothing would be discussed in the Dáil in relation to this agreement until the UK cabinet came up with a decision.


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    #4372
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,734 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062831206511902720


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    #4373
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,027 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    devnull wrote: »
    Front pages already up:
    https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11554453

    The Star going with the truly surreal in the circumstances

    'Queen: One Won't Eat Like A Monkey'


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    #4374
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »
    And now Peston saying May could be facing a vote of confidence shortly.

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062831927231741953

    She's encircled by opponents.

    What happens next in that scenario? Could the Tories possibly agree on a successor? They are such a gaggle. They would remain hopelessly divided no matter who they choose. The tories are absolutely finished if they take May down, and probably are anyway. Either way the party needs to completely reinvent themselves and there doesnt appear to be many candidates capable of doing it.

    And a general election? That would require a few months and there is no time left for the negotiations.

    Who would/ could ask the EU to extend article 50 if May is brought down? and would that not come with conditions attached also? I'm not sure the EU would be awfully keen on extending the process, nor spending much more time on it. It would have to be the deal, or a prepackaged deal like Canada+ but the backstop issue will remain and we have precedent ×3 now, why would the EU settle for less?

    It would be seemingly disastrous for this to carry on like that and the economic problems such as flight of business and damage to the currency would continue. That's real instability.


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    #4375
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,898 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    bilston wrote: »
    The DUP have said their deal is with the Tories rather than May, I don't think they'd support a vote of no confidence in the govt.

    Plus the DUP wouldn't have any input in any Tory leadership challenge.


    That would work if May stepped down of her own accord.

    Then faik it would be an internal matter for the Tory`s, but whoever won would require a majority HoC vote to become PM where again they would need to bribe the DUP again.

    If it went to a vote of confidence and she lost I cannot see how a GE could be avoided.


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    #4376
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,166 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The challenge to TM will be within the Tory Party if a challenge is triggered. The ERG have already admitted that nit won't succeed. At most they would have 80 votes, probably much less.
    DUP have no say in that issue.


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    #4377
    Wheeliebin30
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,593 ✭✭✭Wheeliebin30


    How can we blame the government in this?

    Imagine saying they actually done a good job.


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    #4378
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Wheeliebin30 wrote: »
    How can we blame the government in this?

    Imagine saying they actually done a good job.

    TM seems to have done well to survive once painted into a corner, but I have no sympathy for her whatsoever- she painted herself into the corner by being a really terrible, awful leader.


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    #4379
    Jim2007
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,064 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Folkstonian wrote: »
    I think May is Toast. No chance this gets through Parliament.

    She’s lost the DUP and probably 60 or 70 of her own MPs at a minimum.

    No chance she will get the support of those sorts of numbers from the other side of the house.

    Only two options foreseeable now, second referendum or no deal and I do fear that no deal is the far more likely of the two.

    Until very recently I thoroughly that May was not up to it. But I’m beginning to think that she may have far better intelligence on what the feeling on the ground in the constituencies is and that she will get the votes. She has lost the DUP and there will be a lot of jumping up and down, but in the end most will get into line, with maybe 10 or 20 defecting.


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    #4380
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,764 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Until very recently I thoroughly that May was not up to it. But I’m beginning to think that she may have far better intelligence on what the feeling on the ground in the constituencies is and that she will get the votes. She has lost the DUP and there will be a lot of jumping up and down, but in the end most will get into line, with maybe 10 or 20 defecting.

    Feeling on the ground ?

    You mean polls indicating that people want to remain and that no one would vote for an out but still in deal with less power.

    I think she's knows nothing


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    #4381
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,361 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Mark reckless mp sounding tired and emotional on RTÉ late debate at moment.


This discussion has been closed.
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