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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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    #4322
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,823 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    She loses 10 DUP votes for this deal but gets 12 Lib Dem and 1 Green Party in all likelihood as that group - while they'd prefer a referendum - will take this rather than the chaos of No Deal imo. Means the question becomes whether Tory rebels can be offset by enough Labour / SNP votes to get her over the line. To vote no consigns the nation to economic chaos.

    It has an excellent chance of getting through imo.

    I don't see any greens voting for it. Nor do I see a full lib Dems vote.

    I do see a push for second referendum.

    As that as more hope now than ever .

    Actually more favourable than a push for full on hard brexit.

    The peoples vote folks will be pushing this hard behind the scenes


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    #4323
    keane2097
    Registered Users Posts: 17,770 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    All the major parties deserve credit for the mature solidarity they have displayed on this. Great job by Fine Gael.

    I have a real sense of belonging with regards to the EU just now, they have really gone to bat for us whatever happens in HoC.


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    #4324
    KevIRL
    Registered Users Posts: 39,537 ✭✭✭✭KevIRL


    The shinners should swoop in WWF style at the last minute to swing the vote


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    #4325
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,172 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Tinder Surprise wrote: »
    Very Dangerous and inflammatory

    First thing I thought of when I read it was the "No surrender..." phrase they're fond of.


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    #4326
    hill16bhoy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,029 ✭✭✭hill16bhoy


    listermint wrote: »
    I only see a push on her leadership and a bigger push for second referendum

    A push against May's leadership (at least before the vote) can only come from the Mad Max Brexiteers.

    And that group have engaged in nothing but "hold me back" posturing when it comes to moving against her.

    They're absolute chicken shlt when it comes to walking the walk.


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    #4327
    am i bovvered
    Registered Users Posts: 1,102 ✭✭✭am i bovvered


    Very informative thread !!

    When does the UK parliament vote ?
    (I did a quick google but could not see a definite timeline)
    Thanks


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    #4328
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Tinder Surprise wrote: »
    Very Dangerous and inflammatory


    Their default position, so nothing new there.


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    #4329
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    She loses 10 DUP votes for this deal but gets 12 Lib Dem and 1 Green Party in all likelihood as that group - while they'd prefer a referendum - will take this rather than the chaos of No Deal imo. Means the question becomes whether Tory rebels can be offset by enough Labour / SNP votes to get her over the line. To vote no consigns the nation to economic chaos.

    It has an excellent chance of getting through imo.


    I don`t know about the Green, but the Lib Dems didn`t sound to keen earlier today. Scotland Conservatives may be dodgy as well.


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    #4330
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    am i bovvered wrote: »
    Very informative thread !!

    When does the UK parliament vote ?
    (I did a quick google but could not see a definite timeline)
    Thanks

    I assume they'll decide tomorrow when, caveat on everything going to hell in a handbasket once Parliament get to shout about it.


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    #4331
    Mr.Wemmick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,080 ✭✭✭Mr.Wemmick


    EdgeCase wrote: »
    This whole sorry fiasco is what happens when you build lies upon lies and upon spin and bluster.

    Perhaps the new UK motto should be : "Oh! What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive"

    They could put it on the blue passports.

    The trouble is, 'tis the Tories default method of dealing with the British public. They know no other way.. so the referendum, in turn, was just another mismanaged, incomprehensible, vague, neither here nor there layer of lies.

    When May referred to the deal as allowing continued job and business security at PMQs today, the disingenuous shower snapping at her heels began to tweet about their conscience while not giving a second thought to the livelihoods of their constituents. Farcical to say the least.


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    #4332
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,237 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    charlie14 wrote: »
    I don`t know about the Green, but the Lib Dems didn`t sound to keen earlier today. Scotland Conservatives may be dodgy as well.

    I know, they are remainers and they understand that this is worse than the status quo. It is however far better than No Deal. When the moment comes...


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    #4333
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,293 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    I have been really impressed with the Irish Government in this mess, especially Simon Coveney who came across really well. For me to say that about a Fine Gael government is unreal

    Varadkar also paid tribute tonight to the work of the opposition parties in largely supporting the Govt and not going off message. It's been a great team effort.


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    #4334
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    lawred2 wrote: »
    What does Large annexe on level playing field mean then?

    The EU have annexed NI and plan to level it for use as a playing field.


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    #4335
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Too many buying into, this Deal or No Deal at this early point. The vast majority in Parliament know that staying in the EU is far better than this Deal. When HoC votes this Deal down, power moves from Cabinet to Parliament.
    HoC vote after 10th Dec.


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    #4336
    joe40
    Registered Users Posts: 3,811 ✭✭✭joe40


    Maybe not likely but does anyone seea potential violent backlash in the north from loyalist paramilitaries. Just as well this isn't happening during marching season.


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    #4337
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,172 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Water John wrote: »
    Too many buying into, this Deal or No Deal at this early point.

    One phrase I wouldn't use is early point.


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    #4338
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,823 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    joe40 wrote: »
    Maybe not likely but does anyone seea potential violent backlash in the north from loyalist paramilitaries. Just as well this isn't happening during marching season.

    Not particularly.

    I don't think they are particularly tooled up at the moment nor well organized.


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    #4339
    anotherfinemess
    Registered Users Posts: 124 ✭✭anotherfinemess


    We've all been played. The UK was always aiming for EU trade benefits minus the EU scrutiny of its money laundering industry. The promise of extra EU scrutiny appeared about 10 years ago, with the EU preparing new legislation in the wake of the financial crisis and after this talk of a brexit vote emerged. The DUP was comandeered to prevent a clean break brexit with the obvious solution of a border in the Irish sea and keep the whole of the UK trading profitably. My guess is the HoC will pass the deal after the usual histrionics to entertain our collective delusion that democracy is real.

    That's my home made conspiracy theory....any takers?


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    #4340
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,749 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    Water John wrote: »
    Too many buying into, this Deal or No Deal at this early point. The vast majority in Parliament know that staying in the EU is far better than this Deal. When HoC votes this Deal down, power moves from Cabinet to Parliament.

    We are at the very end of the runway, firms will start shutting up shop, enacting contingency plans for no deal, very real damage will be done to the UK economy, not that this hasn't happened already, but it will speed up as time really has run out. If the HoC votes this down what next? May resigns? She is replaced by the Tories, maybe a GE, maybe not. All the time the clock ticks onward toward March 29th, in kicking the can this far down the road, May hasn't left any time for a GE or a 2nd referendum without getting an A50 extension from the EU. It's hard to foresee how they can get from this to a better deal in the time that is left without a chaotic Brexit transpiring in the meantime.


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    #4341
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    I don't know what's more amusing tonight, the DUP being thrown under a bus by the conservatives, the Scottish conservatives being pissed off because Northern Ireland is getting a better deal than Scotland out of all this, or the DUP being pissed off because Northern Ireland is getting a better deal than Scotland.


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    #4342
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    I know, they are remainers and they understand that this is worse than the status quo. It is however far better than No Deal. When the moment comes...


    If they all look on it as either supporting this agreement or a crash out perhaps, but there may be other options they consider that can still come into play. A re-run of the referendum with this Peoples Vote or even a GE.
    Supporting it would also mean that under the backstop they know they are in the CU for all intent and purposes forever and a day. A limbo with no SM access, 10 billion a year + payment with no seat at the table and no trade deals that can be any better than they would get as full EU members.


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    #4343
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users Posts: 45,558 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Interesting spot here by Sam Lowe about the potential for a customs border in the Irish sea if the UK were to breach its obligations.

    https://twitter.com/SamuelMarcLowe/status/1062823693934649350


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    #4344
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users Posts: 7,281 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    She loses 10 DUP votes for this deal but gets 12 Lib Dem and 1 Green Party in all likelihood as that group - while they'd prefer a referendum - will take this rather than the chaos of No Deal imo. Means the question becomes whether Tory rebels can be offset by enough Labour / SNP votes to get her over the line. To vote no consigns the nation to economic chaos.

    It has an excellent chance of getting through imo.
    If the lib dems want to vote themselves out of existence they'll vote for this


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    #4345
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 67,506 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1062769554345082880


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    #4346
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,823 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Lib Dems chief whip saying Mays deal should be put to the people.


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    #4347
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 14,938 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    anotherfinemess wrote: »
    We've all been played. The UK was always aiming for EU trade benefits minus the EU scrutiny of its money laundering industry. The promise of extra EU scrutiny appeared about 10 years ago, with the EU preparing new legislation in the wake of the financial crisis and after this talk of a brexit vote emerged. The DUP was comandeered to prevent a clean break brexit with the obvious solution of a border in the Irish sea and keep the whole of the UK trading profitably. My guess is the HoC will pass the deal after the usual histrionics to entertain our collective delusion that democracy is real.

    That's my home made conspiracy theory....any takers?


    I cannot find my tinfoil hat. On that basis I`ll have to pass.:)


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    #4348
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,556 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If they all look on it as either supporting this agreement or a crash out perhaps, but there may be other options they consider that can still come into play. A re-run of the referendum with this Peoples Vote or even a GE.
    Supporting it would also mean that under the backstop they know they are in the CU for all intent and purposes forever and a day. A limbo with no SM access, 10 billion a year + payment with no seat at the table and no trade deals that can be any better than they would get as full EU members.
    If there's a GE I think the outcome would be a parliament with pretty much the same make up as today. It would be a waste of time unless Labour campaigned on a no-brexit ticket which is not going to happen.


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    #4349
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users Posts: 15,405 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Varadkar should play this very low key until commons state of play is known


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    #4350
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    Varadkar should play this very low key until commons state of play is known

    He is to be fair, even in the Dail today he gave little away and ministers aren’t being allowed to go into the knotty gritty because Varadkar knows anything he says will just antagonise Brexiteers and the DUP.


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    #4351
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,224 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I said 'early', because this is early in the end game. Fully aware of the last 2 years. But this play now will be day by day. You may have a few Cabinet resignations tomorrow. You may have a trigger on a challenge to TM from the ERG. They have even admitted that they won't manage to topple her, but want to put pressure on her.


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