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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Inquitus

Water John wrote: »

I said 'early', because this is early in the end game. Fully aware of the last 2 years. But this play now will be day by day. You may have a few Cabinet resignations tomorrow. You may have a trigger on a challenge to TM from the ERG. They have even admitted that they won't manage to topple her, but want to put pressure on her.

What options does she have if the commons rejects this, there is still a good chance she survives a no confidence vote, and there is no immediate General Election. There is no going back to re-negotiate at this juncture. She has ruled out another referendum which would perhaps be a way to move things forwards, coupled with an A50 extension to facilitate. Things start to look very bleak at that point.

FrancieBrady

Inquitus wrote: »

What options does she have if the commons rejects this, there is still a good chance she survives a no confidence vote, and there is no immediate General Election. There is no going back to re-negotiate at this juncture. She has ruled out another referendum which would perhaps be a way to move things forwards, coupled with an A50 extension to facilitate. Things start to look very bleak at that point.

In fairness, she has ruled out a lot of things she is now willing to do.

Folkstonian

I think May is Toast. No chance this gets through Parliament.

She’s lost the DUP and probably 60 or 70 of her own MPs at a minimum.

No chance she will get the support of those sorts of numbers from the other side of the house.

Only two options foreseeable now, second referendum or no deal and I do fear that no deal is the far more likely of the two.

J Mysterio

EdgeCase wrote: »

I can't see this getting through the House of Commons to be perfectly honest. It's a worst-of-both-worlds compromise that reflects the ridiculous reality of what they're trying to do.

The Brexteers sound unhappy about it and the Remainers seem equally unhappy.

New referendum seems to be about the only solution to this.

I dont understand how a referendum can fix this situation for the UK? What would the question be? Deal or Hard Brexit? Stay in the EU or deal?

Would May be expected to carry on if the negotiations are considered a failure?

Negotiations can't simply be reset now. With May or another leader. It is now the deal.

charlie14

awec wrote: »

If there's a GE I think the outcome would be a parliament with pretty much the same make up as today. It would be a waste of time unless Labour campaigned on a no-brexit ticket which is not going to happen.

With all Labour constituencies in the latest polls showing they favour Remain they would have no options regardless of what Corbyn wants if they wished to win a GE. Plus on their Kier Starmer 6 point test there really isn`t anything other than full membership that will pass them all as far as I can see.

listermint

J Mysterio wrote: »

I dont understand how a referendum can fix this situation for the UK? What would the question be? Deal or Hard Brexit? Stay in the EU or deal?

Would May be expected to carry on if the negotiations are considered a failure?

Negotiations can't simply be reset now. With May or another leader. It is now the deal.

Mays deal or Stay.

I don't see how it's complicated.....

It's a simple question

theguzman

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think May is Toast. No chance this gets through Parliament.

She’s lost the DUP and probably 60 or 70 of her own MPs at a minimum.

No chance she will get the support of those sorts of numbers from the other side of the house.

Only two options foreseeable now, second referendum or no deal and I do fear that no deal is the far more likely of the two.

Hopefully, No deal and a Hard Brexit would be the far better option. Bring back the hard border and force this country to leave too, there may be some small short-term economic instability but in the long term Ireland leaving the EU would greatly benefit Irish people.

Mr.Nice Guy

DUP now away consulting with the hardline Brexiteers.

https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1062829201999433728

Wonder what their next move will be tomorrow.

Water John

A lot to play for. Next it will be the paper headlines at 10.30 Sky News.
After the HoC vote turning it down, Parliament could ask for a new Ref or something else, TM would be in no position to refuse.
That Ref could be on Remain v Crash Brexit.

Mr.Nice Guy

Nicola Sturgeon has commented on her discussion with May:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1062829567235252225

Hard to see how May can get the SNP on board. They're hardly going to vote for a deal they see as putting their country at a serious disadvantage.

listermint

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Varadkar should play this very low key until commons state of play is known

You said that already.

Mr.Nice Guy

And now Peston saying May could be facing a vote of confidence shortly.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062831927231741953

She's encircled by opponents.

hill16bhoy

Water John wrote: »

A lot to play for. Next it will be the paper headlines at 10.30 Sky News.
After the HoC vote turning it down, Parliament could ask for a new Ref or something else, TM would be in no position to refuse.
That Ref could be on Remain v Crash Brexit.

Could May, even if parliament rejects the deal, refuse to give up on it and call a referendum on it, on the basis that it has already been shown in this process that a referendum trumps parliament?

That would be a referendum between the rejected deal and no deal.

Such a referendum would be a fitting climax to this whole farce.

charlie14

Inquitus wrote: »

What options does she have if the commons rejects this, there is still a good chance she survives a no confidence vote, and there is no immediate General Election. There is no going back to re-negotiate at this juncture. She has ruled out another referendum which would perhaps be a way to move things forwards, coupled with an A50 extension to facilitate. Things start to look very bleak at that point.

If there is a motion of no confidence, especially if it is proposed by some of her own MPs, being impossible for her to survive. Even if it is an opposition motion she will still have a problem with the numbers. I cannot see the DUP backing her after today.

devnull

Water John wrote: »

A lot to play for. Next it will be the paper headlines at 10.30 Sky News.
After the HoC vote turning it down, Parliament could ask for a new Ref or something else, TM would be in no position to refuse.
That Ref could be on Remain v Crash Brexit.

Front pages already up:
https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11554453

bilston

Is it beyond the realms of possibility that May could get Labour onside...or at least enough Labour MPs

bilston

charlie14 wrote: »

If there is a motion of no confidence, especially if it is proposed by some of her own MPs, being impossible for her to survive. Even if it is an opposition motion she will still have a problem with the numbers. I cannot see the DUP backing her after today.

The DUP have said their deal is with the Tories rather than May, I don't think they'd support a vote of no confidence in the govt.

Plus the DUP wouldn't have any input in any Tory leadership challenge.

Beechwoodspark

listermint wrote: »

You said that already.

Sorry double post. Deleted the second one

charlie14

Faugheen wrote: »

He is to be fair, even in the Dail today he gave little away and ministers aren’t being allowed to go into the knotty gritty because Varadkar knows anything he says will just antagonise Brexiteers and the DUP.

In fairness to all concerned Varadkar apparently phoned around this morning and all agreed that nothing would be discussed in the Dáil in relation to this agreement until the UK cabinet came up with a decision.

Inquitus

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1062831206511902720

A Dub in Glasgo

devnull wrote: »

Front pages already up:
https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11554453

The Star going with the truly surreal in the circumstances

'Queen: One Won't Eat Like A Monkey'

J Mysterio

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

And now Peston saying May could be facing a vote of confidence shortly.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1062831927231741953

She's encircled by opponents.

What happens next in that scenario? Could the Tories possibly agree on a successor? They are such a gaggle. They would remain hopelessly divided no matter who they choose. The tories are absolutely finished if they take May down, and probably are anyway. Either way the party needs to completely reinvent themselves and there doesnt appear to be many candidates capable of doing it.

And a general election? That would require a few months and there is no time left for the negotiations.

Who would/ could ask the EU to extend article 50 if May is brought down? and would that not come with conditions attached also? I'm not sure the EU would be awfully keen on extending the process, nor spending much more time on it. It would have to be the deal, or a prepackaged deal like Canada+ but the backstop issue will remain and we have precedent ×3 now, why would the EU settle for less?

It would be seemingly disastrous for this to carry on like that and the economic problems such as flight of business and damage to the currency would continue. That's real instability.

charlie14

bilston wrote: »

The DUP have said their deal is with the Tories rather than May, I don't think they'd support a vote of no confidence in the govt.

Plus the DUP wouldn't have any input in any Tory leadership challenge.

That would work if May stepped down of her own accord.

Then faik it would be an internal matter for the Tory`s, but whoever won would require a majority HoC vote to become PM where again they would need to bribe the DUP again.

If it went to a vote of confidence and she lost I cannot see how a GE could be avoided.

Water John

The challenge to TM will be within the Tory Party if a challenge is triggered. The ERG have already admitted that nit won't succeed. At most they would have 80 votes, probably much less.
DUP have no say in that issue.

Wheeliebin30

How can we blame the government in this?

Imagine saying they actually done a good job.

J Mysterio

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

How can we blame the government in this?

Imagine saying they actually done a good job.

TM seems to have done well to survive once painted into a corner, but I have no sympathy for her whatsoever- she painted herself into the corner by being a really terrible, awful leader.

Jim2007

Folkstonian wrote: »

I think May is Toast. No chance this gets through Parliament.

She’s lost the DUP and probably 60 or 70 of her own MPs at a minimum.

No chance she will get the support of those sorts of numbers from the other side of the house.

Only two options foreseeable now, second referendum or no deal and I do fear that no deal is the far more likely of the two.

Until very recently I thoroughly that May was not up to it. But I’m beginning to think that she may have far better intelligence on what the feeling on the ground in the constituencies is and that she will get the votes. She has lost the DUP and there will be a lot of jumping up and down, but in the end most will get into line, with maybe 10 or 20 defecting.

listermint

Jim2007 wrote: »

Until very recently I thoroughly that May was not up to it. But I’m beginning to think that she may have far better intelligence on what the feeling on the ground in the constituencies is and that she will get the votes. She has lost the DUP and there will be a lot of jumping up and down, but in the end most will get into line, with maybe 10 or 20 defecting.

Feeling on the ground ?

You mean polls indicating that people want to remain and that no one would vote for an out but still in deal with less power.

I think she's knows nothing

Beechwoodspark

Mark reckless mp sounding tired and emotional on RTÉ late debate at moment.

charlie14

devnull wrote: »

Front pages already up:
https://news.sky.com/story/thursdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11554453

Strange take on it by the Express. No deal or no Brexit where they are reporting May saying no deal and the UK may stay in the EU