Donald Trump is the President Mark IV (Read Mod Warning in OP)

aloyisious · 14-11-2018 03:02AM

The election results for the House and the Senate are still coming in. It's not all decided yet in regards to D versus R numbers in seats. In California the D lead is increasing in the Rep-house seats.

everlast75 · 14-11-2018 09:06AM

I would say "the neck on this guy", but....

https://twitter.com/senatemajldr/status/1062461047892787204?s=19

Interesting to note the comments to "like" or retweet option. Usually an indicator of whether folks approve or disapprove

circadian · 14-11-2018 10:38AM

I can see the GOP or at least certain members turning on Trump as the Mueller investigation comes to a close. The Dems control Congress and take seats in January. One way or another, his dirty laundry will be aired and he is already toxic and I can't imagine anything coming out of investigations will do him any favours.

There will be a few, hopefully in the senate, who want to run against him in 2020. Any opportunity to remove him from office may well be a big plus for the sharks that will circle. This would big a long shot but it's possible to see impeachment and charges brought if there are enough career politicians in the GOP wiling to get rid of him to try and take control themselves.

B0jangles · 14-11-2018 10:44AM

I'd say that's why Paul Ryan has gone to ground - he wants to get a bit of distance between himself and the Trump administration before making his own run at the presidency.

Leroy42 · 14-11-2018 10:57AM

As the counting continues from the elections, the results are looking more and more positive for the DNC. Even in those seats they did not win (Beto for eg) they performed very well, particular in states that Trump delivered significant advantages over HC in 2016.

Given that the economy and unemployment are doing so well, it is hard to see how the GOP and Trump will ever be in a better position that they were heading into the midterms and yet the DNC had their best results in years.

Was it a blue wave? Well in terms of the House yes it certainly was. The senate races they would have expected to win (Cruz should have been a walk over). Not only in terms of the seats won, but the diverse nature of the DNC candidates that won. The GOP have nothing similar to offer voters in this respect. Mainly old, white guys. That is far harder to remedy that a policy change. They identified this after Obama won but seemingly did very little about it.

They also performed well in those areas that effectively cost HC the election. Wisconsin etc.

In addition, although Trump has tried to pass it off and even threatened the DNC, losing the House is a significant problem for Trump. Not only in terms of the committees and investigations, although of course this is now a nightmare for Trump as the investigations will only increase, but he has shown no ability whatsoever to be able to work in a bipartisan way. Hell, he has shown little ability to get on with his own party. Now, after dissing Pelosi for 4 years, he may very well be forced to work with her. She has already offered the olive branch (although it is open to question how genuine that is) but can Trump really bring himself to work with her. All the evidence is that he cannot. He might be able to pretend for a while but, as his latest tweet outburst against Macron and Germany shows, he is unable to control himself and as soon as he fails to get his own way he will get in a huff.

Captain Obvious · 14-11-2018 11:00AM

B0jangles wrote: »

I'd say that's why Paul Ryan has gone to ground - he wants to get a bit of distance between himself and the Trump administration before making his own run at the presidency.

Interesting how a lot of people will put blame on the Dems for splitting their party before the presidential election. Blaming the DNC for alienating Danders voters. Can you imagine how split the Republican party will be when someone runs against Trump?

Leroy42 · 14-11-2018 11:09AM

I don't think anyone will run against Trump. They may well try to persuade him not to run, but they have hitched their horse to his wagon now and as pointed out any split will only hurt the GOP.

pixelburp · 14-11-2018 12:29PM

Interesting article from the New York Times attempting to deep-dive into the results of the Tax Cut:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.html

A large slew of stats, so open to interpretation, though one item worth noting is that despite the Tax Cuts to companies, this is not reflective in job creation (emphasis mine):

The nonprofit research group Just Capital, which is tracking 1,000 large public companies’ reports of how they are spending their tax cuts,
[...]
Many companies also said they would use tax savings to create jobs. But the Just Capital research finds that, since the tax cuts were passed, the 1,000 largest public companies have actually reduced employment, on balance. They have announced the elimination of nearly 140,000 jobs — which is almost double the 73,000 jobs they say they have created in that time. About half of those net losses came from companies in the restaurant and leisure industries, the analysis found.

Also unsurprisingly, wages are not keeping up with inflation (though I believe that's a problem over here too). Corporate tax revenue is also down, while the big tech companies are skewing the stats on Capital Spending.

Who'd have thought that if you give already wealthy, financially stealthy corporations even larger tax breaks, they don't immediately channel that extra income into their workforce or economy? I am shocked, shocked I tell you.
That there are people who still insist the Trickle Down Economy works and benefits the workforce would be laughable, were it not so tragic. The strongest chains truly are the ones we build for ourselves.

Corporate tax revenues are down one-third from a year ago. Federal revenues as a whole ran $200 billion behind the Congressional Budget Office’s forecast for the 2018 fiscal year — even though economic growth was faster than the C.B.O. expected. The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget reports that nominal federal revenues are down by at least 3.6 percent since the tax cuts took effect.

aloyisious · 14-11-2018 01:08PM

B0jangles wrote: »

I'd say that's why Paul Ryan has gone to ground - he wants to get a bit of distance between himself and the Trump administration before making his own run at the presidency.

Umm, that might be an explanation for the spat between him and Don last week where he publicly chastised Don re the constitution [in an "I'm my own man" way] with POTUS responding that Paul knows nothing about it.

serfboard · 14-11-2018 01:13PM

pixelburp wrote: »

one item worth noting is that despite the Tax Cuts to companies, this is not reflective in job creation

This was never going to happen and was obvious before the Tax Cut was passed.

And the interesting thing is that the public weren't fooled, which is why, in the midterms the Republicans didn't run on their great (only) legislative achievement of the Tax Cuts because people could see that they were not any better off.

One of the best quotes I heard about the Tax Cut was from a Republican politician who admitted that his rich donors told him: "Get this done, or don't call us again".

What companies have been doing with their tax cuts is buying back their own stock, thus driving stock market prices higher, thus increasing the bonuses for CEOs, making the richest even richer.

And as Paul Krugman pointed out, they've also made foreigners richer too as they hold about one third of U.S. stocks, and are now benefitting from the stock buybacks.

Zubeneschamali · 14-11-2018 02:16PM

jjpep wrote: »

Big question is will relations between the US and Europe normalize once Trump is out of office?

If the next president is a Democrat, they will instantly be the most popular politician in the world outside the USA just for not being Trump. Think of how Obama won a Nobel prize just for not being George Bush.

Zubeneschamali · 14-11-2018 02:25PM

Tell me how wrote: »

Which would be doubly ironic given the bill of health his physician gave him since he was elected.

We learned from the doctor since that Trump dictated that letter saying Trump was the healthiest candidate ever.

I know, shocking.

relax carry on · 14-11-2018 03:23PM

Just read the text of Trumps response about his tax returns last week on CNN. The text is below. It's nuts. It's just rambling nonsense.

"Well, look, as I've told you, they're under audit. They have been for a long time. They're extremely complex. People wouldn't understand them.
"They're done by -- among the biggest and best law firms in the country. Same thing with the accounting firms, the accountants are a very, very large, powerful firm from the standpoint of respect. They're highly respected, big firm. A -- a great law firm, or you would -- you know it very well. They do these things. They put them in.
"But people don't understand tax returns. Now, I did do a filing of over a hundred pages, I believe, which is in the offices. And when people went and saw that filing and they saw the magnitude of it, they were very disappointed.
"And they saw the -- you know, the detail. You get far more from that. And I guess we filed that, now, three times. But you get far more from that than you could ever get from a tax return.
"But when you're under audit -- and I'm on a very continuous audit because there are so many companies -- and it is a very big company, far bigger than you would even understand. But it's a -- it's a great company.
"But it's big, and it's complex and it's probably feet-high. It's a very complex instrument. And I think that people wouldn't understand it.
"But if I were finished with the audit, I would have an open mind to it. I would say that. But I don't want to do it during the audit.
"And -- and really no lawyer -- even from the other side they say, often, not always -- but when you're under audit, you don't have -- you don't subject it to that. You get it done, and then you release it.
"So when that happens, if that happens, I would certainly have an open mind to it."

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/13/politics/donald-trump-taxes/index.html

Rjd2 · 14-11-2018 03:36PM

aloyisious wrote: »

Umm, that might be an explanation for the spat between him and Don last week where he publicly chastised Don re the constitution [in an "I'm my own man" way] with POTUS responding that Paul knows nothing about it.

Ryan has not played it well though, their was an article in the NYT where Republicans blamed him for playing a role in losing the house as he really stepped back the last few months especially regarding fund raising something which he is really good at. Mitch not impressed with him either.

I think if Trump is about in 2020, then its Hailey or nothing for the never trumpers. Some of the names so far listed are absurd, the likes of Flake, Kasich and Bill ****ing Kristol would be stomped by Trump.

Not sure Hailey wants the hassle of all that in 2020 though, best wait until 2024 for her.

serfboard · 14-11-2018 03:37PM

relax carry on wrote: »

Just read the text of Trumps response about his tax returns last week on CNN. The text is below. It's nuts. It's just rambling nonsense.

Yeah I saw that - it was hilarious, rambling sh1te. Basically, "I'm under continuous audit so my tax returns can never be relased".

Except the Democrats control the House now and apparently they can demand to see the tax returns.

serfboard · 14-11-2018 03:47PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Think of how Obama won a Nobel prize just for not being George Bush.

That Nobel Peace Prize for Barack Obama was a disgrace.

Firstly, he was hardly a wet week in office when he got it (okay, literally nine months, but hardly long enough) and in fact had only been in office for eleven days when he was nominated.

Secondly he would go on to drastically expand the Drone programme while in office, which hardly sound like the actions of a "peaceful" person.

Stallingrad · 14-11-2018 03:51PM

serfboard wrote: »

That Nobel Peace Prize for Barack Obama was a disgrace.

It was, even Obama was embarrassed by it.

jooksavage · 14-11-2018 04:27PM

relax carry on wrote: »

Just read the text of Trumps response about his tax returns last week on CNN. The text is below. It's nuts. It's just rambling nonsense.

Holy smokes. This sounds like someone (1) with diminishing language skills and (2)who is seriously worried about those tax returns getting out.

All these garbled deflections are making it look like he's panicking and that's just whetting everyone's appetite. If he had any sense he'd telling us it's no big deal, the Dems can release what they want, it just shows how desperate they are etc. I mean I find it hard to believe anything in those returns will surprise most people or convince his base to abandon him. Obviously, I'd love to be wrong on this.

FrostyJack · 14-11-2018 04:35PM

jooksavage wrote: »

I mean I find it hard to believe anything in those returns will surprise most people or convince his base to abandon him. Obviously, I'd love to be wrong on this.

It will confirm or dispel some of our theories if nothing else. I think we will be happier than him if they are released. I don't think he is clever or reasoned enough to sell us a red herring and make a fool of the Dem's, there are no hidden layers to his thinking. In other words if nothing is there he would have released it at the election to show how rich he is.

robinph · 14-11-2018 04:35PM

Trump wrote:

"But it's big, and it's complex and it's probably feet-high. It's a very complex instrument. And I think that people wouldn't understand it.

I'm guessing that would be like the several foot high pile of blank paper they stacked in front of a podium claiming that it was all the documents to do with him removing himself from controlling, or having even a slight interest in, any of the Trump companies?

James Brown · 14-11-2018 04:41PM

serfboard wrote: »

Yeah I saw that - it was hilarious, rambling sh1te. Basically, "I'm under continuous audit so my tax returns can never be relased".

Except the Democrats control the House now and apparently they can demand to see the tax returns.

They're on to a loser. Unless they can make any criminality stick. If he just gets a fine it won't amount to much of a scandal and his base will not care either way.
He dodged attended the wreath laying because of rain. That's a far bigger deal to his base and it didn't seem to impact. If CNN are successful in suing the White house, that will just embolden his anti-CNN base. The optics are enemy of the people CNN verses the White house a symbol of 'merica.
He'll need lose 2020 and be hounded as a private citizen for any justice warranted.

robinph · 14-11-2018 04:49PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

They're on to a loser. Unless they can make any criminality stick. If he just gets a fine it won't amount to much of a scandal and his base will not care either way.
He dodged attended the wreath laying because of rain. That's a far bigger deal to his base and it didn't seem to impact. If CNN are successful in suing the White house, that will just embolden his anti-CNN base. The optics are enemy of the people CNN verses the White house a symbol of 'merica.
He'll need lose 2020 and be hounded as a private citizen for any justice warranted.

The CNN article about CNN suing him included quotes from them that they knew they were going to loose either way in the eyes of Trumps base because it would then just be used as even more justification for Trumps position against them and could make things worse for the press...but despite that it had to be done. I think the rest of the White House press should be sticking together more though. They really need to just walk out and stop giving him any air. Take the printed press releases incase he's done something interesting other than shout and scream at people, but otherwise just ignore him.

They certainly shouldn't be turning up at his rally's where their only function is to get shouted at by Trump and the rabble, take the free ride on Air Force One to wherever he's going and then the press should go play some golf instead for the duration until the plane goes back to Washington.

StringerBell · 14-11-2018 05:31PM

B0jangles wrote: »

I'd say that's why Paul Ryan has gone to ground - he wants to get a bit of distance between himself and the Trump administration before making his own run at the presidency.

Yes, I hypothesized as much myself when he announced he wasn't going to seek re-election.

He wants to be there ready to swoop and with relative clean hands if Trump goes down in flames

B0jangles · 14-11-2018 05:38PM

StringerBell wrote: »

Yes, I hypothesized as much myself when he announced he wasn't going to seek re-election.

He wants to be there ready to swoop and with relative clean hands if Trump goes down in flames

No doubt he'll run as a Classic Republican; he'll postion himself as a welcome return to their traditional roots of reducing corporate taxes, cutting environmental protections, cutting social programs while constantly shouting about Illegals, the Constitution, the Flag, Supporting the Military etc. etc.

Basically Trumpism, but not so vulgar and obvious.

eire4 · 14-11-2018 06:45PM

serfboard wrote: »

Yeah I saw that - it was hilarious, rambling sh1te. Basically, "I'm under continuous audit so my tax returns can never be relased".

Except the Democrats control the House now and apparently they can demand to see the tax returns.

The House ways and means committee I believe can issue a subpoena for his tax returns if they ask for them and he refuses to turn them over.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2018 06:47PM

robinph wrote: »

The CNN article about CNN suing him included quotes from them that they knew they were going to loose either way in the eyes of Trumps base because it would then just be used as even more justification for Trumps position against them and could make things worse for the press...but despite that it had to be done. I think the rest of the White House press should be sticking together more though. They really need to just walk out and stop giving him any air. Take the printed press releases incase he's done something interesting other than shout and scream at people, but otherwise just ignore him.

They certainly shouldn't be turning up at his rally's where their only function is to get shouted at by Trump and the rabble, take the free ride on Air Force One to wherever he's going and then the press should go play some golf instead for the duration until the plane goes back to Washington.

Fox News Joins Dozen News Outlets Supporting CNN In Lawsuit To Restore Jim Acosta’s White House Credentials

Fox News has come out in support of CNN in CNN’s lawsuit against the White House’s decision to pull the press credentials of Jim Acosta, joining a dozen other media outlets announcing intent to file friend-of-the-court briefs to support CNN and its White House correspondent.

“Fox News supports CNN in its legal effort to regain its White House reporter’s press credential,” Fox News President Jay Wallace said in a statement.

“Our news organizations support the fundamental constitutional right to question the President, or any President. We will be filing friend-of-the-court briefs to support CNN’s and Jim Acosta’s lawsuit based on these principles,” 13 media outlets said in a joint statement this morning, including Fox News as well as AP, NBC, Gannett, New York Times, USA Today, Politico, Bloomberg, Washington Post and others.

“Our news organizations support the fundamental constitutional right to question the President, or any President. We will be filing friend-of-the-court briefs to support CNN’s and Jim Acosta’s lawsuit based on these principles,” the 13 news outlets said in their statement.

“We intend to file an amicus brief with the U.S. District Court,” added Fox News’s Wallace in his separate statement. Notable, given that many Fox News Channel commentators have blasted Acosta’s aggressive Trump question-asking, including some who say Acosta’s credentials should be revoked.

Not that Trumps base will care , but the WH is going to lose badly on this if they continue to push.

serfboard · 14-11-2018 06:49PM

robinph wrote: »

I think the rest of the White House press should be sticking together more though. They really need to just walk out and stop giving him any air.

Well, they're sort of doing what you want:

RTE wrote:

Fox News has announced that it will support rival news station CNN in its legal battle to restore the access of White House reporter Jim Acosta ....

"We intend to file an amicus brief with the US District Court. Secret Service passes for working White House journalists should never be weaponised."

Leroy42 · 14-11-2018 06:55PM

Matt Barrett wrote: »

They're on to a loser. Unless they can make any criminality stick. If he just gets a fine it won't amount to much of a scandal and his base will not care either way.
He dodged attended the wreath laying because of rain. That's a far bigger deal to his base and it didn't seem to impact. If CNN are successful in suing the White house, that will just embolden his anti-CNN base. The optics are enemy of the people CNN verses the White house a symbol of 'merica.
He'll need lose 2020 and be hounded as a private citizen for any justice warranted.

But it is not his base that is going to elect him. His base is at best 35%. He needs those voters that moved from Obama previously. He needs the middle America voters. He needs to get people to believe that he will make a difference (which is what he did in 2016).

No one scandal will be enough, as Stormy Daniels etc have proven. But it is constant, daily, bad news and missteps that continue to hurt him.

Look at the recent elections. At a time of a growing economy on great unemployment (what did Bill Clinton say, its the economy stupid?) and yet the DNC swept the House and did well in the Senate races.

These is this false narrative that none of these stories or issues have a negative effect on Trumps standing, and to his base that is probably true. But to those not in the cult they make a difference. And in all likelihood, he will be running against a younger, fresher DNC opponent that will not have the taint of so much scandal around them.

In effect, he will be the HC at the next election.

Quin_Dub · 14-11-2018 06:55PM

eire4 wrote: »

The House ways and means committee I believe can issue a subpoena for his tax returns if they ask for them and he refuses to turn them over.

They can , but they have to show that they have a legitimate reason for asking for them so it'll have to be tied to something more solid that just because they want to see them.

This will go to court , he clearly believes that they contain something politically damaging to him , he'll fight til the end here.

Leroy42 · 14-11-2018 07:01PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

They can , but they have to show that they have a legitimate reason for asking for them so it'll have to be tied to something more solid that just because they want to see them.

This will go to court , he clearly believes that they contain something politically damaging to him , he'll fight til the end here.

Oh, I would think that is going to be pretty easy.

Simply run on the basis that without his tax returns one cannot be certain of vested interest in the massive tax cuts that he, as POTUS, signed off on.

Trump would then have to argue why he can't release them (audit is not a valid excuse) and why it is appropriate to overturn accepted norms which reduces the transparency of the office.

Would he win the case? He might, but it would be politically disastrous to have all that dragged through the mud and 24 hour coverage by all the media.

Donald Trump is the President Mark IV (Read Mod Warning in OP)

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