After Hours Presidential Election Poll

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You said I'm seeking an alt-right Utopia, so go on, show me where I've sought that.

I can wait.

Do you think that's an attack? You seem extremely defensive.

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, the other 4 will ignore Higgins and beat Casey into the dirt for his comments.

Comments which a large proportion of the population agree with...doesn't seem like the smartest plan to me.

humberklog wrote: »

I thought there would've been weekend polls (redC or imrb...one of the big ones) out today ahead of the thingy tonight, no?

I think the Limerick Leader poll someone posted earlier in the thread, was from the weekend but the results didn't fit the narrative the media is spinning so no mention of it from the usual places.

If you look at the odds that Paddy Power are giving on what percentage they will get, it looks like roughly

Higgins - 63%
Gallagher 11%
Ni Riada - 10%
Casey - 8%
Freeman - 5%
Duffy - 3%

PP do their own polls, the prices reflect a mix of feedback from that, trying to entice people to bet with tasty odds (Casey 9/4 for example) and a bit of insurance their way in case the worst happens (Trump is an example).

Unless there is a major revelation tonight, Higgins will be elected on the first count. But it all depends on turnout.. the lower the turnout, the more it helps Casey to finish in 2nd and the higher chance Higgins will poll nearer to 50%.

The weather will play a part, and there will be a sense ogf apathy as most people reckon Higgins is a shoo-in.

I have no doubt Higgins will win, but I, like many other put a tenner on him to finish 2nd on Friday at 16/1 and having correctly bet on Brexit and Trump (neither of whom I support) i think Casey will get the more determined voters out and will hopefully finish 2nd.

humberklog wrote: »

I posted this last night over on another thread so excuse the copy and paste...

"It'll be interesting to see if the Limerick Leader's poll gets much publicity tomorrow. There's a few studies that show polling influences results.

This is a pretty good election for one study: Boomerang and Bandwagon.

The Boomerang is basically complacency in supporters of a runaway leader. Some supporters don't bother voting because "ah sure they'll romp home".

The Bandwagon is when an outsider gathers a gain in momentum and sleeping supporters are more inclined to bother to vote.


I wouldn't hold too much faith in the LL's poll as it's probably reactionary divilment:). But if it gets much publicity it could tighten the margins in what was, and still is, a one horse race."

I have only been tuning in and out of the Irish national radio stations today but I did notice that there's been no poll results or much chat about tonight's debate.

I voted five times in that poll. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

PressRun wrote: »

I'd say they'll go for Casey as well. It'll be easier to ground him than Higgins.

They probably will be going in all guns blazing, because none of them have the political smarts to know that voters generally don't like seeing politicians fighting. Voters generally don't care about who is factually right or wrong.

Duffy really should know this given his supposed professional expertise.

haley79 wrote: »

seanie gallagher will be definitely going after micky d
he has been seething for the last 7 years and i'm sure has being building up his arsenal of dirt against micky d, especially how flathúilach he is being with our tax dollars

The reason why I am discounting Sean Gallagher as a candidate is that I haven't seen him do anything for the past 7 years since his first punt at the Presidency. He didn't stand for local elections or for general elections. We didn't hear anything (IIRC) during the same sex marriage or 8th amendment referendums. To me, it just looks like he simply re-emerged for a second shot. If he is serious about having an impact, I would have expected something from him in the past 7 years.

I'm hoping tonight's debate will be interesting. We have a real lack of polls and a lot of turmoil, so it will be interesting to see how the candidates perform.

BoneIdol wrote: »

I'm sure they will go for the jugular as will the rest of the candidates. There is no evidence anywhere that Casey has a hope in hell of getting elected and he is now the easiest candidate to get rid of possibly in history.

But with no polls out, and Casey's true polling a mystery, will they really target him hard in to hope of picking off maybe as low as his 2% poll? There's a potential for very little gain for them for the effort of just punishing Casey. Meanwhile Higgins 68% could be on more shake ground, as suddenly he's not exactly untouchable anymore. Ní Riada has already set the groundwork sending an open letter to Higgins asking him about his expenses.

So why have 5 of them attack Casey for his few percentages, unless Gallagher and ní Riada think pushing him down secures their deposits.

And what approach do they all take. Last week Gallagher was coached to within an inch of his life, and came across robotic. Ní Riada had equally little impact. Higgins seemed to be just swatting than off, with the debate a mere formality. Duffy and Freeman were non entities. But Casey's approach, his speaking plainly and his attacks on Higgins have generated all the interest over the last week. If the others really want to make an impact they have to have a lot more presence and substance than last week.