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After Hours Presidential Election Poll

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The polls are pretty one sided so far but let's see where the good people of After Hours stand a week out from the election....

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MrMusician18

PressRun wrote: »

I'm not attacking anyone. Just stating that a vote for Peter Casey isn't what some people on this thread think it is. You're the one who seems to be getting very het up with everyone.

This isn't a thread about FF, so no, I'm not getting into a discussion about them.

You said I'm seeking an alt-right Utopia, so go on, show me where I've sought that.

I can wait.

haley79

really looking forward to the debate
go on THE DRAGONS

PressRun

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You said I'm seeking an alt-right Utopia, so go on, show me where I've sought that.

I can wait.

Do you think that's an attack? You seem extremely defensive.

Zubeneschamali

Patser wrote: »

When you have 5 wannabes trying to be an alternative to a massive favourite, and 1 strikes gold by standing apart from that herd, I wonder will any of the others break ranks and try something.

Yes, the other 4 will ignore Higgins and beat Casey into the dirt for his comments.

JeffKenna

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, the other 4 will ignore Higgins and beat Casey into the dirt for his comments.

Comments which a large proportion of the population agree with...doesn't seem like the smartest plan to me.

BoneIdol

Patser wrote: »

With even Gallagher and ní Riada now looking nervously at their deposits - will the try to undermine Casey and hope to get above 12%

I'm sure they will go for the jugular as will the rest of the candidates. There is no evidence anywhere that Casey has a hope in hell of getting elected and he is now the easiest candidate to get rid of possibly in history.

MrMusician18

PressRun wrote: »

Do you think that's an attack? You seem extremely defensive.

Why wouldn't I be defensive when you made a groundless statement about me.

Still waiting for you to show me where I've sought an alt-right Utopia

PressRun

BoneIdol wrote: »

I'm sure they will go for the jugular as will the rest of the candidates. There is no evidence anywhere that Casey has a hope in hell of getting elected and he is now the easiest candidate to get rid of possibly in history.

I'd say they'll go for Casey as well. It'll be easier to ground him than Higgins.

MrMusician18

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, the other 4 will ignore Higgins and beat Casey into the dirt for his comments.

It depends, if some people were to be believed, his support level is still on 2% so there would be little point in going after him.

You would think that going after MDH who has the biggest slice of support pie would be the best strategy, and try and pick off a couple of soft percent to get them over the deposit threshold.

I expect given the chaotic nature of the past week and the unknowns of present support that both PC and MDH will be roughed up by the others tonight.

cournioni

DChancer wrote: »

Spreading hate and division!
Targeting the most marginalized!
Yup, I thought a lot about my post, thought a lot about Pastor Niemuller as well!

There's nothing quite as divisive as claiming to be a different ethnicity to an average white European while being a white European.

humberklog

I thought there would've been weekend polls (redC or imrb...one of the big ones) out today ahead of the thingy tonight, no?

Human Sausage

Vincent Vega wrote: »

What's with these weird little videos about Michael D appearing on Casey's twitter?

https://twitter.com/CaseyPeterJ/status/1054271429401890816
And the American lad narrating them.
Is he just trying to tap into the American reality tv politics MIGA feel of his supporter base, with their parroting talk of liberals, snowflakes, NPCs and silent majorities? Or could it be possible that he has received support in his campaign from American interests?

I'd say Trump would much rather sit down with Casey than Higgins, and you'd have to wonder if the cancellation of his planned trip here might have been done with that possibility in mind.

I don't care what anyone here says, Casey is pathetic. What is he hoping to achieve with that kind of childish mud-slinging?

Venom

humberklog wrote: »

I thought there would've been weekend polls (redC or imrb...one of the big ones) out today ahead of the thingy tonight, no?

I think the Limerick Leader poll someone posted earlier in the thread, was from the weekend but the results didn't fit the narrative the media is spinning so no mention of it from the usual places.

haley79

PressRun wrote: »

I'd say they'll go for Casey as well. It'll be easier to ground him than Higgins.

seanie gallagher will be definitely going after micky d
he has been seething for the last 7 years and i'm sure has being building up his arsenal of dirt against micky d, especially how flathúilach he is being with our tax dollars

KevRossi

If you look at the odds that Paddy Power are giving on what percentage they will get, it looks like roughly

Higgins - 63%
Gallagher 11%
Ni Riada - 10%
Casey - 8%
Freeman - 5%
Duffy - 3%

PP do their own polls, the prices reflect a mix of feedback from that, trying to entice people to bet with tasty odds (Casey 9/4 for example) and a bit of insurance their way in case the worst happens (Trump is an example).

Unless there is a major revelation tonight, Higgins will be elected on the first count. But it all depends on turnout.. the lower the turnout, the more it helps Casey to finish in 2nd and the higher chance Higgins will poll nearer to 50%.

The weather will play a part, and there will be a sense ogf apathy as most people reckon Higgins is a shoo-in.

I have no doubt Higgins will win, but I, like many other put a tenner on him to finish 2nd on Friday at 16/1 and having correctly bet on Brexit and Trump (neither of whom I support) i think Casey will get the more determined voters out and will hopefully finish 2nd.

MrMusician18

Venom wrote: »

I think the Limerick Leader poll someone posted earlier in the thread, was from the weekend but the results didn't fit the narrative the media is spinning so no mention of it from the usual places.

Wasn't that a crap online poll in the Limerick Leader?

humberklog

Venom wrote: »

I think the Limerick Leader poll someone posted earlier in the thread, was from the weekend but the results didn't fit the narrative the media is spinning so no mention of it from the usual places.

I posted this last night over on another thread so excuse the copy and paste...

"It'll be interesting to see if the Limerick Leader's poll gets much publicity tomorrow. There's a few studies that show polling influences results.

This is a pretty good election for one study: Boomerang and Bandwagon.

The Boomerang is basically complacency in supporters of a runaway leader. Some supporters don't bother voting because "ah sure they'll romp home".

The Bandwagon is when an outsider gathers a gain in momentum and sleeping supporters are more inclined to bother to vote.

I wouldn't hold too much faith in the LL's poll as it's probably reactionary divilment:). But if it gets much publicity it could tighten the margins in what was, and still is, a one horse race."

I have only been tuning in and out of the Irish national radio stations today but I did notice that there's been no poll results or much chat about tonight's debate.

McMurphy

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Yes, the other 4 will ignore Higgins and beat Casey into the dirt for his comments.

Why would they bother going after Casey if he's only going to Hoover up around 2% of the votes according to many around here?

I would have thought the runaway favourite, would be in everyone's crosshairs, if anyone was serious about deposing him?

:cool:

FrancieBrady

humberklog wrote: »

I posted this last night over on another thread so excuse the copy and paste...

"It'll be interesting to see if the Limerick Leader's poll gets much publicity tomorrow. There's a few studies that show polling influences results.

This is a pretty good election for one study: Boomerang and Bandwagon.

The Boomerang is basically complacency in supporters of a runaway leader. Some supporters don't bother voting because "ah sure they'll romp home".

The Bandwagon is when an outsider gathers a gain in momentum and sleeping supporters are more inclined to bother to vote.

I wouldn't hold too much faith in the LL's poll as it's probably reactionary divilment:). But if it gets much publicity it could tighten the margins in what was, and still is, a one horse race."

I have only been tuning in and out of the Irish national radio stations today but I did notice that there's been no poll results or much chat about tonight's debate.

I voted five times in that poll. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

WhatsGoingOn2

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Not just after hours.

Check out the online poll in the limerick leader.

Not far away from this one.

Lead for Casey in the Leinster Leader poll too

BoneIdol

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Why would they bother going after Casey if he's only going to Hoover up around 2% of the votes according to many around here?

I would have thought the runaway favourite, would be in everyone's crosshairs, if anyone was serious about deposing him?

:cool:

Its damage control now and they want their deposits back. None of them can seriously depose him. They can get a few handy votes by annihilating this clown.

haley79

Johnny Dogs wrote: »

Why would they bother going after Casey if he's only going to Hoover up around 2% of the votes according to many around here?

I would have thought the runaway favourite, would be in everyone's crosshairs, if anyone was serious about deposing him?

:cool:

Casey has the hunger to be President
Micky D is only in it for the money

[Deleted User]

PressRun wrote: »

I'd say they'll go for Casey as well. It'll be easier to ground him than Higgins.

They probably will be going in all guns blazing, because none of them have the political smarts to know that voters generally don't like seeing politicians fighting. Voters generally don't care about who is factually right or wrong.

Duffy really should know this given his supposed professional expertise.

Wheeliebin30

Let’s hope Casey keeps it steady tonight and doesn’t get drawn into some ridiculous argument.

dudara

haley79 wrote: »

seanie gallagher will be definitely going after micky d
he has been seething for the last 7 years and i'm sure has being building up his arsenal of dirt against micky d, especially how flathúilach he is being with our tax dollars

The reason why I am discounting Sean Gallagher as a candidate is that I haven't seen him do anything for the past 7 years since his first punt at the Presidency. He didn't stand for local elections or for general elections. We didn't hear anything (IIRC) during the same sex marriage or 8th amendment referendums. To me, it just looks like he simply re-emerged for a second shot. If he is serious about having an impact, I would have expected something from him in the past 7 years.

I'm hoping tonight's debate will be interesting. We have a real lack of polls and a lot of turmoil, so it will be interesting to see how the candidates perform.

haley79

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

They probably will be going in all guns blazing, because none of them have the political smarts to know that voters generally don't like seeing politicians fighting. Voters generally don't care about who is factually right or wrong.

Duffy really should know this given his supposed professional expertise.

"that voters generally don't like seeing politicians fighting"

yes we do

haley79

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

Let’s hope Casey keeps it steady tonight and doesn’t get drawn into some ridiculous argument.

he just has to be himself

Coillte_Bhoy

haley79 wrote: »

he just has to be himself

Hopefully thats exactly what he will be, the semi articulate buffoon that he is

Patser

BoneIdol wrote: »

I'm sure they will go for the jugular as will the rest of the candidates. There is no evidence anywhere that Casey has a hope in hell of getting elected and he is now the easiest candidate to get rid of possibly in history.

But with no polls out, and Casey's true polling a mystery, will they really target him hard in to hope of picking off maybe as low as his 2% poll? There's a potential for very little gain for them for the effort of just punishing Casey. Meanwhile Higgins 68% could be on more shake ground, as suddenly he's not exactly untouchable anymore. Ní Riada has already set the groundwork sending an open letter to Higgins asking him about his expenses.

So why have 5 of them attack Casey for his few percentages, unless Gallagher and ní Riada think pushing him down secures their deposits.

And what approach do they all take. Last week Gallagher was coached to within an inch of his life, and came across robotic. Ní Riada had equally little impact. Higgins seemed to be just swatting than off, with the debate a mere formality. Duffy and Freeman were non entities. But Casey's approach, his speaking plainly and his attacks on Higgins have generated all the interest over the last week. If the others really want to make an impact they have to have a lot more presence and substance than last week.

haley79

rte should supply all the candidates with loads of alcohol,
loosen up the tongues