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Brexit discussion thread IV

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    #8372
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    MBSnr wrote: »
    More car manufacturer news today - Toyota warns no-deal Brexit would halt production at key plant.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/work/industrial-relations/news/98659/toyota-warns-no-deal-brexit-would-halt-production-key

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36614187

    Every council area in Derbyshire has voted to leave the EU.


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    #8373
    kuro68k
    Registered Users Posts: 261 ✭✭kuro68k


    Deleted User wrote: »
    MBSnr wrote: »
    More car manufacturer news today - Toyota warns no-deal Brexit would halt production at key plant.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/work/industrial-relations/news/98659/toyota-warns-no-deal-brexit-would-halt-production-key

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36614187

    Every council area in Derbyshire has voted to leave the EU.

    They all did, Sunderland too, the BMW and Honda plants.

    Turkeys conned into voting for Christmas. They must actually have believed that everything would be great, trade with the EU would continue as normal,  America would give them a great deal...


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    #8374
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    joeysoap wrote: »
    I think the clue is in the his name Patrick Kielty.

    Sir Patrick Mayhew called... :)


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    #8375
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,923 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    Nitrogan wrote: »
    They had the IMF in during the '70s before joining the EU didn't they?

    From an Irish perspective if we're going to be living in the past there was a study done which calculated that being so dependent on the UK after WWII as our major trading partner, far more than it is now, depressed our economic growth significantly and delayed our development by as much as a decade because their economy was such a basket case.

    Well, that and Dev!

    Imagine if we never had Whitaker and Lemass?


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    #8376
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,161 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Both the UK and Ireland joined the EEC in 1973. Oil crisis of 1974 and other factors caused IMF to be called in 1977.


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    #8377
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    Sir Patrick Mayhew called... :)

    Patrick Stewart also unsure what to make of this.


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    #8378
    Anthracite
    Closed Accounts Posts: 805 ✭✭✭Anthracite


    Water John wrote: »
    Both the UK and Ireland joined the EEC in 1973. Oil crisis of 1974 and other factors caused IMF to be called in 1977.
    'Other factors' including the long decline of the UK as it could no longer rape its empire.


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    #8379
    Call me Al
    Registered Users Posts: 3,022 ✭✭✭Call me Al


    kuro68k wrote: »
    They all did, Sunderland too, the BMW and Honda plants.

    Turkeys conned into voting for Christmas. They must actually have believed that everything would be great, trade with the EU would continue as normal,  America would give them a great deal...
    Well that's what they were told. Key brexit politicians on TV and in thr paper saying prior to election date that they would get a bespoke deal that would leave them better off out than in. Although they would only be out in the bits they themselves wanted to be out of.
    So yes they believed every single bit of it. It may very well even have suited their own biases.
    And many of them are too proud now to admit that they've been made fools of.


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    #8380
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,855 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    MBSnr wrote: »
    More car manufacturer news today - Toyota warns no-deal Brexit would halt production at key plant.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/work/industrial-relations/news/98659/toyota-warns-no-deal-brexit-would-halt-production-key
    No need to worry.

    It's only a temporary halt. And besides only 90% of the output goes to the EU.
    Stopping a production line is expensive - the plant produces cars worth about £12m every day.

    Thanks to the EU-Japan FTA future Toyota imports will be tariff free though being phased out over seven years. They also have plants in other parts of the Common Market.
    https://www.toyota-europe.com/world-of-toyota/feel/operations/made-in-europe/manufacturing
    We have six vehicle plants, located in France (Yaris), the UK (Auris), Turkey (Toyota C-HR and Corolla), the Czech Republic (Aygo), Russia (Camry and RAV4) and Portugal (Land Cruiser for export). We also have engine and transmission manufacturing facilities in Poland and the UK.


    The North East of England doesn't have much leverage, and there might be muh government aid unless May gives the 'ol money tree a good shake. But since the locals don't vote Tory it's down to how shareholders would be affected.


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    #8381
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,885 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Igotadose wrote: »
    David Davis whines to the press about Brexit, trying to cast shade on Macron and Merkel. As he was Brexit secretary for 2 years, this is pretty damned amusing, considering he basically got nothing done:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-angela-merkel-and-emmanuel-macron-dont-want-uk-to-succeed-on-brexit/
    David Davis:
    “I don’t think Merkel was ever really going to be our champion, ever, ever … neither Macron, nor Merkel.”
    Well no sh1t sherlock! Why would a German chancellor champion these fools and their hatchet job on the European project? What is actually going through their brains when they make statements like this?


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    #8382
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,161 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    They thought they could get at Merkel. Firstly German car industry. Then looking for Merkel to go over the head of Barnier.


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    #8383
    Rhineshark
    Registered Users Posts: 632 ✭✭✭Rhineshark


    Water John wrote: »
    They thought they could get at Merkel. Firstly German car industry. Then looking for Merkel to go over the head of Barnier.

    Which they've been trying for two years now with various leaders.

    At some point is it going to filter through that their strategy isn't working or do they reckon that to keep trying the same thing that isn't working is a mark of stoicism and determination rather than madness?


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    #8384
    murphaph
    Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36614187

    Every council area in Derbyshire has voted to leave the EU.
    On a related note, I did my German language proficiency exam this morning so I can naturalise here. I'm just doing it to be better integrated, so I can vote in federal elections etc. but there were 3 Brits from the 9 of us in the exam all there because of Brexit. The two men work for Rolls Royce here in Brandenburg and they told me Rolls is moving the certification stuff for large engines over from Derby right now. They are very concerned. They also reckon Rolls and Airbus will move entire production lines at short notice. They also noted how stupid the people of Derby are in voting the way they did. These guys are safe. They work in a plant likely to see more work and they have been here over 20 years so entitled to naturalise as a formality.


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    #8385
    ilovesmybrick
    Registered Users Posts: 1,128 ✭✭✭ilovesmybrick


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/tory-conference-app-flaw-reveals-private-data-of-senior-mps
    A major flaw in the Conservative party’s official conference phone application made the private data of senior party members including cabinet ministers accessible to anyone that logged in as a conference attendee.

    So, I hope they won't be suggesting that they're able to implement technical solutions for the border after this screw up!


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    #8386
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Water John wrote: »
    They thought they could get at Merkel. Firstly German car industry. Then looking for Merkel to go over the head of Barnier.

    It's laughable. Between the UK and the US I think the clear problems with the 2-party systems are being shown up massively though in slightly different ways. In the UK the pendulum swings and for a decade or more a party has total control. In the US while the arms of government are usually split it means constant deadlock in some areas while other measures are forced through.
    Nowhere is perfect and every makes questionable electoral choices but PR dulls the extremes and encourages collaboration. It makes big bang policy changes hard if not impossible and while sometimes a party will run roughshod over others it is usually tame compared to the 2-party system simply because the culture doesn't lead to it.
    Also the sheer ineptitude and ignorance on display at the top levels is incredible. Davis in that Politico article just shows his ignorance of how things are done elsewhere. In the UK the party in government gets its way, everyone else has to lump it. He doesn't get that if that were the structure that the UK aren't in power over the EU. And in the current structure the EU have shown willingness to fudge and not particularly play games in the UK media (and have shown huge restraint IMO) but he doesn't get that the UK simply isn't the powerful party in this situation.


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    #8387
    Econ__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭Econ__


    ilovesmybrick wrote: »
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/29/tory-conference-app-flaw-reveals-private-data-of-senior-mps



    So, I hope they won't be suggesting that they're able to implement technical solutions for the border after this screw up!

    I wonder how big the consequences of this screw up will be or whether it'll just blow over...


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    #8388
    Econ__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭Econ__


    Thargor wrote: »
    David Davis:Well no sh1t sherlock! Why would a German chancellor champion these fools and their hatchet job on the European project? What is actually going through their brains when they make statements like this?


    Davis lying again. He explicitly stated that Germany would open trade talks with the UK the day after the UK voting to leave. It's still on twitter.

    https://twitter.com/StevePeers/status/1045973593153306625


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    #8389
    Econ__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭Econ__


    MBSnr wrote: »
    More car manufacturer news today - Toyota warns no-deal Brexit would halt production at key plant.

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/work/industrial-relations/news/98659/toyota-warns-no-deal-brexit-would-halt-production-key


    Expect these warnings to increase and get louder in the next two months. We'll see how Mrs. May's rhetoric holds up against the sound of markets collapsing.


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    #8390
    Water John
    Registered Users Posts: 21,161 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Rhineshark, I think what you wrote that the British continue to do what has obviously failed and hoping for a different result, is the definition used for stupidity.


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    #8391
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,855 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Water John wrote: »
    They thought they could get at Merkel. Firstly German car industry. Then looking for Merkel to go over the head of Barnier.
    Search for Matthias Wissmann VDA Brexit how that was always a complete fantasy.


    At no point I'm aware of did the VDA or head of any German Vehicle company suggest anything like that was possible. Early on they'd said they'd have to swallow a billion in lost profits because of Brexit because the political attitude was risking EU unity wasn't even worth considering.

    As for the billion cost, it's a small fraction of the emissions fines. And UK demand and sterling are both down so the British market matters less than it used to.


    17 October 2016 German auto industry warning they'd move their UK operations to Slovakia or Poland
    "If the UK doesn't want to suffer the same fate as Italy's car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,"


    24 July 2017 , the BBC completely killed the idea that German industry would help the UK. If anyone was paying attention that is. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-40683091
    Matthias Wissman, the president of the VDA, the German automotive industry association.

    "What we want is to keep the European Union of the 27 together," he says. "That is the first priority. Second priority is to have a trade area with the UK with no tariff barriers, no non-tariff barriers. That is possible if the UK understands what the preconditions are.

    ...
    what about the idea they'll push Mrs Merkel to soften her approach?

    "That's completely unlikely," Mr Deutsch says. "The importance of the European Union for German corporates is even higher than the importance of a bilateral relationship with the United Kingdom. So, the priority of safeguarding… the unity of the European Union is much more important than one economic relationship. There are a lot of illusions - it won't happen."

    ...
    And my overriding impression of the view of the big beasts of Germany industry?

    Frustration that they don't know where the British government wants to head and a strong sense that any outcome will be worse than what exists.

    But also, a total rejection of the idea that the economic relationship with the UK outweighs the German interest in European unity.


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    #8392
    Econ__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭Econ__


    So when do people actually expect the Withdrawal Agreement to be signed?

    I cannot see it happening in November and I think those expectations are false. The two sides are still too far apart on the backstop & nobody still has any idea what the political declaration will look like.

    I think January is most likely, with the WA getting fast tracked through the national parliaments of the EU27 to meet the deadline. If May doesn't have a deal by January 20th, she has to make a statement to the HoC with regards what she plans on doing next. That statement will be amendable - which would leave open the opportunities for MPs to vote on the prospect of a 2nd referendum. May will not want to lose control of the process in that way, so i suspect the hard deadline for a deal is January 20th.


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    #8393
    Econ__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭Econ__


    J Mysterio wrote: »
    Question Time is the flagship current affairs/ political debate show of the BBC and the only one of note in the UK. You expect a good standard. Historically it was pretty good. Like many institutions, Question Time has not coped with Brexit.

    The BBC has not coped with Brexit in general.

    Too much credence given to proven charlatans like Rees-Mogg and IDS. Also, I think the focus and coverage given to Johnson, a blatant Trump-like demagogue, does the citizens of the UK a major disservice. This is the biggest crisis that Britain has faced since the second World War - the state broadcaster has a responsibility to provide rational, objective and fact based discourse.


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    #8394
    Spook_ie
    Registered Users Posts: 10,896 ✭✭✭✭Spook_ie


    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »


    17 October 2016 German auto industry warning they'd move their UK operations to Slovakia or Poland
    "If the UK doesn't want to suffer the same fate as Italy's car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,"

    Not sure how highlighting another EU countries car industry fate actually helps?


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    #8395
    Econ__
    Closed Accounts Posts: 240 ✭✭Econ__


    Sand wrote: »
    I think we can all enjoy the sight of the Empire 2.0 fantasists running slap bang into the wall of reality. They're largely dislikeable as people, and wholly incompetent as politicians. Its fairly clear at this point their vision will fail. Before year end, the UK will collapse and accept the EU's terms like any vanquished opponent, or they'll stubbornly go out with no-deal, and then collapse and accept the EU's terms like any vanquished opponent.

    The sad reality is it will fall on a jobsworth like May to actually endure the necessary humilitations. BoJo, JRM, Gove, Davis and their backers will all be out of power and in full denial, trumpeting about betrayals and so on. I believe the Empire 2.0 Tories high jacked a genuine rejection of globalism by 52% of the UK vote. Instead of attempting to represent that, the Tories instead salivated about using disaster capitalism to impose even more globalism, with the UK becoming a Singapore-On-Thames, with a anarcho-capitalist approach to trade, regulation and society. In their own way, the supposed Conservatives are incredibly radical. They don't wish to conserve the UK: they wish to entirely re-engineer it.

    In the midst of all the schadenfreude of their clear failure I hope the lesson is not taken that the UK, having been appropriately chastised, must then return to the centrist/neoliberal politics of the past 20-30 years. The politics of Blair, Brown and Cameron caused Brexit and they cant be returned to. Whatever the ultimate outcome, the turmoil in the UK was not caused by Brexit. The turmoil in the UK will continue past March 2019, whatever the outcome of the talks with the EU.

    Mightily simplistic.

    I could say the Financial crash caused Brexit. I could say Brexit was caused by 30 years of lies and myths about the EU taking hold in Britain. I could say it was caused by Nigel Farage drawing out + exploiting the underlying xenophobic attitudes that are prevalent in middle England.

    There are a myriad of reasons that one can offer to explain Brexit. Isolating the 'politics of Blair, Brown and Cameron' as the primary one is a particularly Farage thing to do.


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    #8396
    J Mysterio
    Registered Users Posts: 11,035 ✭✭✭✭J Mysterio


    Thargor wrote: »
    David Davis:Well no sh1t sherlock! Why would a German chancellor champion these fools and their hatchet job on the European project? What is actually going through their brains when they make statements like this?

    And Merkel in particular... she has spent her whole career since reunification advocating for the EU.


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    #8397
    Nitrogan
    Registered Users Posts: 277 ✭✭Nitrogan


    Water John wrote: »
    Both the UK and Ireland joined the EEC in 1973. Oil crisis of 1974 and other factors caused IMF to be called in 1977.


    Ireland should have grown at a greater or equivalent rate to at least the non-combatant countries like Portugal after WWII. Instead we were caught in the draught of the tanking UK economy.


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    #8398
    Capt'n Midnight
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,855 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Spook_ie wrote: »
    Capt'n Midnight wrote: »
    17 October 2016 German auto industry warning they'd move their UK operations to Slovakia or Poland
    "If the UK doesn't want to suffer the same fate as Italy's car industry, it must be concerned to retain full access to the single market,"

    Not sure how highlighting another EU countries car industry fate actually helps?
    The Brexiteers are promoting the assumption that the UK car industry is too big to fail.

    "The Germans need us, the government will bail us out."

    It's a very stark warning. Italy wasn't competitive so some production moved to Poland, Serbia and Turkey.
    And FIAT has ties to Italy in ways the owners of the UK car industry don't have with the UK.


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    #8399
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,421 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Nitrogan wrote: »
    Ireland should have grown at a greater or equivalent rate to at least the non-combatant countries like Portugal after WWII. Instead we were caught in the draught of the tanking UK economy.

    We also had Dev dancing at the crossroads, and we had no money and no credit.


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    #8400
    fergiesfolly
    Registered Users Posts: 3,328 ✭✭✭fergiesfolly


    Is the situation as it stands that the UK must leave the EU by March '19?
    If there is a second referendum , does that automatically mean the UK stays within the EU or must they negotiate to remain?
    I only ask because, if at the end of this debacle, there's a second referendum that changes their decision, there should be a penalty for all the time and resources wasted over the last two years.
    As in, they must accept the Euro and deeper integration into the EU.


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    #8401
    flutered
    Registered Users Posts: 6,672 ✭✭✭flutered


    Rhineshark wrote: »
    Water John wrote: »
    They thought they could get at Merkel. Firstly German car industry. Then looking for Merkel to go over the head of Barnier.

    Which they've been trying for two years now with various leaders.

    At some point is it going to filter through that their strategy isn't working or do they reckon that to keep trying the same thing that isn't working is a mark of stoicism and determination rather than madness?
    some uk blogs boast that the can do individual deals with eu countrys post brexit, the penny has not dropped, as some one said online, trying to explain the mechinicims of the eu to brexiteers is akin to trying to get a pig to play the tin whistle


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