Florence

aisling86 · 14-09-2018 11:50am

Almost sure that image has been doing the rounds for years after storms!

hawkwing · 14-09-2018 12:44pm

John Berman getting hammered on CNN all morning,and missed the break of the eye!:o

q85dw7osi4lebg · 14-09-2018 1:01pm

15 feet surge on the Neuse River already

star gazer · 14-09-2018 1:16pm

Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville beach North Carolina.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1040565494179405824

pauldry · 14-09-2018 1:39pm

Wilmington has had 116.8mm of rain so far from this

Think parts of Houston got 1000mm from Matthew

A long way to go though

riggerman · 14-09-2018 2:27pm

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Best quality stream i'v seen so far.

Cape Fear NC

A live-streaming webcam on a steel tower in the Atlantic Ocean is taking the brunt of a hurricane and sharing the experience. Frying Pan Shoals Light Tower is a decommissioned lighthouse built on the ocean floor and rising above the water's surface 34 miles off the North Carolina coast. A pair of cameras, above and below the sea, are broadcasting Hurricane Florence to the world.

Can not believe they put up a new flag before dawn this morning.

Hoboo · 14-09-2018 2:50pm

riggerman wrote: »

Can not believe they put up a new flag before dawn this morning.

'MURCA !!!

Tomtom364 · 14-09-2018 3:29pm

riggerman wrote: »

Can not believe they put up a new flag before dawn this morning.

Thats no longer a live feed, its a repeating highlight feed. connection to the camera has been lost. Kevin has not been saved yet.

Artane2002 · 14-09-2018 4:06pm

pauldry wrote: »

Wilmington has had 116.8mm of rain so far from this

Think parts of Houston got 1000mm from Matthew

A long way to go though

I assume you mean Harvey?

star gazer · 14-09-2018 5:24pm

Florence is moving slowly along the coast, just inland.

LOCATION...34.0N 78.0W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Is the scale for measuring wind speed fit for use ?

It's a good question. They could add something like large, medium and small storm (wind field) and have a set size for each (and also add the total kinetic energy estimate?). Or an estimate of total land rainfall from it? The wind speed is too important to be left out but adding something onto the wind scale could be useful with good education messages about meaning. Fortunately with Florence much of the preparation was done in anticipation of a higher category storm that made most sit up and respect warnings. The late messages of downgrading Categories may have led a few to complacency but hopefully not too many who weren't going to take the risk anyway. The eyewall was hard to anticipate in the days before landfall, worth studying for future reference. The forecasting

It's important to acknowledge the people who forecast and research the science to better understand what is going on currently and what will happen. Mostly it's a great convenience to know what weather is forecast but it saves lives and livelihoods too.

star gazer · 14-09-2018 5:36pm

The hourly NHC update. Pressure rising as expected with landfall and some storm rainfall totals so far.

501
WTNT61 KNHC 141559
TCUAT1

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE WOBBLING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA...

NOAA Doppler weather radar data and surface observations indicate
that the center of Hurricane Florence has turned back toward west.
An erratic motion between westward and west-southwestward is likely
today.

During the past hour, a station operated by Weatherflow at Federal
Point, North Carolina, reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h)
and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h), a sustained wind of 53 mph (85
km/h) and a gust to 72 mph (116 km/h) was observed at Mercer Pier in
Wrightsville Beach, and a sustained wind of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a
gust to 75 mph (121 km/h) was measured at the Wilmington offshore
buoy. In addition, an Amateur Radio operator in Oak Island near
Cape Fear, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 68
mph (109 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h).

Some Hurricane Florence heavy rainfall reports received thus far --

18.53 inches Oriental, NC
14.07 inches Surf City, NC
13.81 inches WFO Morehead City, NC
13.07 inches Jacksonville, NC

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...34.0N 78.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Gaoth Laidir · 14-09-2018 6:43pm

star gazer wrote: »

Florence is moving slowly along the coast, just inland.

It's a good question. They could add something like large, medium and small storm (wind field) and have a set size for each (and also add the total kinetic energy estimate?). Or an estimate of total land rainfall from it? The wind speed is too important to be left out but adding something onto the wind scale could be useful with good education messages about meaning. Fortunately with Florence much of the preparation was done in anticipation of a higher category storm that made most sit up and respect warnings. The late messages of downgrading Categories may have led a few to complacency but hopefully not too many who weren't going to take the risk anyway. The eyewall was hard to anticipate in the days before landfall, worth studying for future reference. The forecasting

It's important to acknowledge the people who forecast and research the science to better understand what is going on currently and what will happen. Mostly it's a great convenience to know what weather is forecast but it saves lives and livelihoods too.

I think the current Saffir Simpson scales are good enough. The lower scales 1 and 2 are narrow enough to give a good indication of windspeed. Major scales 3-5 do get broader but at that stage it's getting serious enough that people need to get out and that's it. Destructive potential v windspeed is not a linear scale, but it really doesn't matter. For Cat 3 and above get out and stay out.

The NHC had a major bust with their intensity forecasts of Florence over the past week, but particularly the past 3 days. For some reason they were going a bit tabloid with their figures and language. Yes, it's the peak of the season, but the data were always stacked against the major landfall they continuously predicted. At less than 24 hours out they were 40 knots out with their peak intensity for yesterday (135 kts versus actual 95 kts). The highest Florence got to was 120 kts, and even at that this figure was very questionable the past few days. They had been forecasting 135 kts and 140 kts for days, but it was never going to happen over ocean heat content too low that far north and in such a swathe of dry air over the whole ocean. This is the 2nd year I've noticed this with US-landfalling hurricanes. Strange.

star gazer · 14-09-2018 8:16pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I think the current Saffir Simpson scales are good enough. The lower scales 1 and 2 are narrow enough to give a good indication of windspeed. Major scales 3-5 do get broader but at that stage it's getting serious enough that people need to get out and that's it. Destructive potential v windspeed is not a linear scale, but it really doesn't matter. For Cat 3 and above get out and stay out.

The NHC had a major bust with their intensity forecasts of Florence over the past week, but particularly the past 3 days. For some reason they were going a bit tabloid with their figures and language. Yes, it's the peak of the season, but the data were always stacked against the major landfall they continuously predicted. At less than 24 hours out they were 40 knots out with their peak intensity for yesterday (135 kts versus actual 95 kts). The highest Florence got to was 120 kts, and even at that this figure was very questionable the past few days. They had been forecasting 135 kts and 140 kts for days, but it was never going to happen over ocean heat content too low that far north and in such a swathe of dry air over the whole ocean. This is the 2nd year I've noticed this with US-landfalling hurricanes. Strange.

Interestingly the NHC and others got the intensity wrong the other way around out in the Atlantic as expected dry air and cooler ocean surface temps didn't stop it going to Category 4 the first time. The point i'm thinking of is when a Hurricane is "only" Cat 1 or 2 but has likely very large impacts expected and how does it get translated to people that while the winds may not be catastrophic some of the storm surge and rainfall accumulations could be? I don't think the Saffir Simpson Hurricane wind scale should be changed just add to it, like a Category 2 Hurricane with large impacts but help people understand the danger.

star gazer · 14-09-2018 8:27pm

Two fatalities reported on CNN as a tree fell into a house. Dozens trapped by storm surge and flood waters. It's a seriously destructive Hurricane.

abc news on Florence
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1040647532366508035

There's a wave by the window.
https://twitter.com/DavidWMTW/status/1040546042364743680

Gaoth Laidir · 14-09-2018 8:37pm

star gazer wrote: »

Interestingly the NHC and others got the intensity wrong the other way around out in the Atlantic as expected dry air and cooler ocean surface temps didn't stop it going to Category 4 the first time. The point i'm thinking of is when a Hurricane is "only" Cat 1 or 2 but has likely very large impacts expected and how does it get translated to people that while the winds may not be catastrophic some of the storm surge and rainfall accumulations could be? I don't think the Saffir Simpson Hurricane wind scale should be changed just add to it, like a Category 2 Hurricane with large impacts but help people understand the danger.

To be fair the NHC do give great detail on local effects and warnings in the Public and Forecast Advisories and the Discussions, so personally I wouldn't have a problem there. It's just that sometimes their interpretations seem to tilt in favour of maintaining high intensities. They tend to go above the aircraft recon data for US-landfalling systems, quoting possible undersampling of max winds, yet with other storms they take the recon values at face value (e.g. Isaac yesterday). Not only recon figures, either.

Anyway, at least they're not in Ireland, facing this monster...:rolleyes:

spookwoman · 14-09-2018 8:48pm

https://twitter.com/gourdnibler/status/1040678572262916096

Graces7 · 15-09-2018 8:05am

reading the RTE report on Florence.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0915/993909-hurricane-florence/

sdanseo · 15-09-2018 12:04pm

Graces7 wrote: »

reading the RTE report on Florence.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2018/0915/993909-hurricane-florence/

RTÉ top-notch reporting as usual.

Florence had been a Category 3 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with 1930km/h winds as of Thursday, but dropped to a Category 1 hurricane before coming ashore.

Akrasia · 15-09-2018 1:06pm

Pretty heavy rainfall totals in some areas already with the potential for 10-20 inches more before the event is over

MJohnston · 15-09-2018 1:51pm

For context, the average annual rainfall for Dublin is 28.8 inches.

Rikand · 15-09-2018 2:36pm

MJohnston wrote: »

For context, the average annual rainfall for Dublin is 28.8 inches.

Ah sure the wesht gets 28 inches every day and doesnt even make a dent

splinter65 · 15-09-2018 2:42pm

Rikand wrote: »

Ah sure the wesht gets 28 inches every day and doesnt even make a dent

Even in the heatwave shure it rained non stop....

Graces7 · 15-09-2018 2:53pm

sdanseo wrote: »

RTÉ top-notch reporting as usual.

You must be a professional proofreader!

SleetAndSnow · 15-09-2018 3:04pm

sdanseo wrote: »

RTÉ top-notch reporting as usual.

God somebody must have changed the scales of what makes a hurricane! if that is CAT 3 id dread to see CAT 5!

sryanbruen · 15-09-2018 3:57pm

https://twitter.com/StephanieAbrams/status/1040942767877312518

Akrasia · 15-09-2018 3:58pm

A scientific analysis of hurricane Florence has already been released with preliminary results attributing 50% of the rainfall to climate change. And saying that Florence remained a higher category storm for longer and grew 80 kilometers larger than it would have been if the global warming signal was removed

https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/you.stonybrook.edu/dist/4/945/files/2018/09/climate_change_Florence_0911201800Z_final-262u19i.pdf

The study is based on the CAM model

MJohnston · 15-09-2018 5:10pm

Rikand wrote: »

Ah sure the wesht gets 28 inches every day and doesnt even make a dent

I don't want to hear about Wesht's sex life, whoever they are

sdanseo · 15-09-2018 6:33pm

We might not have seen the last of Florence yet from an Irish perspective. NHC now expecting her to reintensify to a Tropical Storm east of Newfoundland and hurtle in our direction towards next weekend.

At that stage, if it verified, it will have been a named system for more than 3 weeks.

igCorcaigh · 15-09-2018 6:49pm

MJohnston wrote: »

I don't want to hear about Wesht's sex life, whoever they are

LOL!

Gaoth Laidir · 15-09-2018 7:20pm

Akrasia wrote: »

A scientific analysis of hurricane Florence has already been released with preliminary results attributing 50% of the rainfall to climate change. And saying that Florence remained a higher category storm for longer and grew 80 kilometers larger than it would have been if the global warming signal was removed

https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/you.stonybrook.edu/dist/4/945/files/2018/09/climate_change_Florence_0911201800Z_final-262u19i.pdf

The study is based on the CAM model

So they compared one fully-coupled model to the uncoupled GFS, which has been generating comical forecasts on Florence all week. It's not surprising to find such differences between these two models as the GFS has been that different to all the other models too! Is this paper real science or a wind-up?

Florence

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