Florence

Gaoth Laidir

Latest recon found max of just 81 kts at 0451Z.

Gaoth Laidir

Wilmington International Airport, nearest the landfall area, has forecast Winds of 60 gusting 70 knots from 04Z tomorrow in its latest TAF just issued.

Gaoth Laidir

They still have it at 95 knots at 06Z. Crazy. Still keeps it just at CAT 3 and so a major hurricane. Drop it to Cat 2 and people will just not care anymore.

EDIT: 95 kts is in fact CAT 2.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion, accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and eastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion over eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the center reaches the coast, with weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Villain

The wind is just one part of the storm though, the rainfall and surge are the bigger issues here.

While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the
wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size. This
evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more
intense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values
seen in the previous advisory are still valid. The threat of
rainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a
large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.

q85dw7osi4lebg

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/resort/?cam=coralbeach

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/resort/?cam=seacrest

Interesting live cam for over the next few days.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Having a look on maps, the entire N/S Carolinas coastline is marshy and extremely tidal as it is, with thousands of wooden beach houses along the seafront.

star gazer

Radar of North Carolina coast


Bigger wind field

Florence is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).

A small chance of wind strengthening (current 110mph 175km/h) before it starts interacting with land and decelerates.
A new aircraft mission into Florence is just beginning.
Storm surge proportion
https://twitter.com/NHC_Surge/status/1039983569567928320

pad199207

Is he correct by saying this?

q85dw7osi4lebg

More cams:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deG4NxkouGM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKOtfXySLEk

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkFraQmxU2U

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNLW2briGaw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4BI2J3G3844

Gaoth Laidir

Highest aircraft recon surface winds just 72 kts in the past hour, slp 955 hPa. Highest rainfall rates 35 mm/hr in the southwest eyewall.

Storm kinetic energy has increased slightly this morning, staying at CAT 3 energy (y-axis) despite winds falling to Cat 2 (x-axis). Lower speeds but spread over a larger area. This tool calculates the energy within a 200-km radius of the centre.

daphne

Categories not proportional for energy and speed as energy would increase by the square of the speed - can see that in the graph?

q85dw7osi4lebg

High tide an hour away, again at 11pm tonight. Still not made land fall. Doesn't bode well !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKOtfXySLEk

http://surfchex.com/cams/hatteras-web-cam/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0W-Yd7LZizk

TheMilkyPirate

Landfall time? Friday early AM?

Zzippy

Nearly there...

https://twitter.com/Astro_Alex/status/1039925718682152962

pad199207

Anyone know where you can watch the weather channel?

DOCARCH

pad199207 wrote: »

Anyone know where you can watch the weather channel?

In the US....

yellowlabrador

pad199207 wrote: »

Anyone know where you can watch the weather channel?

here's a link to the livestream
https://www.firstonetv.net/Live/United-States-(USA)/The-Weather-Channel-111

highdef

pad199207 wrote: »

Anyone know where you can watch the weather channel?

Not sure how to view it these days, outside of the USA. I'm watching the following time to time. It's the main news channel in Wilmington - https://livestream.com/accounts/11205802/events/3629935

star gazer

The wind is down a bit to 105mph 165 kph, Pressure 955mb, forward speed 10mph 17km/h.
NHC 57
Up to 1000mm of rainfall on the most impacted coast. Max 4 metre storm surge.

The eye
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1040245527642824709
Expanded wind field
https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1040063928313815040
High tides
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1040256834484031488

Itssoeasy

Is the scale for measuring wind speed fit for use ? I've seen people on line say that because it won't be a cat4 and only a cat2 that it won't be a bad as people say which leads to complacency IMO. I mean Katrina was a cat2 when it hit New Orleans and look what damage that did. I'd love to know what the experts here(and let's be honest ye are) think or am I wrong ?

igCorcaigh

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Landfall time? Friday early AM?

Around noon tomorrow Irish time AFAIK.

Gaoth Laidir

Aircraft found 83-kt surface winds just northeast of the centre an hour ago, the highest all day. The NHC said Buoy 41025 at Shoal Banks has 55-mph sustained winds a while ago but it's not showing in its observation data. Anyway, we're entering the final stretch now so the webcam will be interesting to watch.

igCorcaigh

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Is the scale for measuring wind speed fit for use ? I've seen people on line say that because it won't be a cat4 and only a cat2 that it won't be a bad as people say which leads to complacency IMO. I mean Katrina was a cat2 when it hit New Orleans and look what damage that did. I'd love to know what the experts here(and let's be honest ye are) think or am I wrong ?

It's a fit metric for wind speed. Doesn't measure rain or storm surge AFAIK.

Rougies

pad199207 wrote: »

Anyone know where you can watch the weather channel?

Good quality stream here.


http://www.livenewson.com/american/the-weather-channel.html

irishfeen

Some good live coverage on MSNBC for those with access to it covering Florence.

Gaoth Laidir

Great source of live Mesonet observations here.

Gaoth Laidir

There's not much in the way of heavy rain bands to come from around the eastern side of the storm, based on latest radar and earlier microwave scans. With the land interaction coming up, plus cooler waters, hopefully the rain totals will be a lot less than forecast.

SleetAndSnow

well the flag on that frying pan livestream has been torn apart.

vicwatson

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

well the flag on that frying pan livestream has been torn apart.

Shredded in 60 seconds

EnzoScifo

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

well the flag on that frying pan livestream has been torn apart.

Heard the Republican Party will be announcing a boycott of Hurricane Florence in light of this lack of patriotism.